What is Trump plotting?

SIXTY-NINE DAYS TO GO: There are so many whispers going around that Donald Trump is plotting some sort of coup. Never mind the legal action about the vote counting in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Alaska and North Carolina, it's something much darker. Well I have never believed in conspiracy theories and I won't make an exception even for Trump but the coup rumours are symptomatic of the fears going around that the president, now 69 days away from being ousted from the White House, is not going to play ball and will stay put. It hasn't helped that Trump has started to stuff the Pentagon with 100 per cent Trumpites, notably Anthony Tata, ex-Fox News aficionado, as under secretary of defence for policy, the third highest position in the Pentagon. But, unless I am mistaken or haven't heard yet, General Mark Milley is still chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and I can't see him staying silent if Trump suddenly orders something perceived to be outrageous or wrong or unlawful. These last 69 days are going to be tense and worrying. But Joe Biden and his transition people seem to be relaxed, laughing at Trump's behaviour. But beware, Mr President Elect, while Trump is in the White House you cannot be sure of anything. And there are more than 70 million American voters who are stamping their feet in anger and disbelief that their chosen man will no longer be president on January 20. A coup? No, but we don't know what may happen. Biden should be prepared.

There is a kind of madness going on in Washington

SEVENTY DAYS TO GO: For most of the rest of the world Donald Trump is gone and Joe Biden is already being presidential and marking out his territory for taking over the White House on January 20. But in the US, and in particular in Washington DC, there is a kind of madness going on. Trump is back in the White House and seems to have drawn up a list of revenge sackings. Mark Esper, the defence secretary, was the first to go, or "terminated" as Trump kindly put it in his tweet. Now James Anderson, acting top dog on defence policy at the Pentagon, has resigned because he knew he was about to be pushed. The directors of the CIA and FBI are on borrowed time and who knows who else will be on the Trump chopping block. Will his new acting defence secretary, Christopher Miller, formerly director of the National Counterterrorism Center, be ordered to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan by Christmas, and all the remaining troops in Syria and complete the reduction in troop numbers in Germany before January 19? He knew Esper would never have agreed to all these orders. But was there a deal with Miller? "You get all these troops out as I promised the American people and you can be defence secretary for the next 70 days." Miller was a hotshot at the NCTC but how on earth is he going to cope at the Pentagon with Trump breathing fire down his neck. Apart from the sackings, there is all the craziness about the election and the voting. The Republicans have finally given their backing to Trump's demand for legal action, and court action has begun. Will any judge in the land agree to overturn the count and put Trump back in the frame? Surely not. They would be arguing against the constitution. So we have two presidents operating at the same time, Trump fighting for survival and kicking out at anyone who doesn't show him absolute loyalty, and Joe Biden assuming the mantle of the president as president-elect and ushering in the post-Trump era. There is going to be a mighty clash at some point. I don't mean violent. I mean a political rumpus like you have never seen before.

Everything Trump espoused will be overturned

SEVENTY-ONE DAYS TO GO Joe Biden can't be accused of being sleepy, even by Donald Trump. He is still 71 days away from taking over from Trump but already he and his officials have outlined a progressive programme from day one of his presidency. Right at the top - after tackling the coronavirus pandemic with a federal mask-wearing edict - will be climate change. After four years of a president refusing to believe the reality of the climate changing fast around the world, we will now have exactly the opposite, a president who trusts the scientists and will act accordingly. Rejoin the Paris agreement will be Biden's first move. Then there's the Iran nuclear deal fixed under Barack Obama. I assume the US will rejoin that too, although that nice chap the supreme ayatollah in Tehran welcomed Biden's victory like he had a bad smell under his nose. So we'll have to see whether Iran plays ball with a Biden America. I somehow doubt Biden will rush into lifting economic sanctions aganst Iran. Then there's America's exit from the International Nuclear Forces Treaty and the proposed extension to the New Start nuclear treaty and will Biden revive America's participation in the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty? The US withdrew from it in 2002 under George W Bush. And what about the millions of dollars already spent on beginning the Trump Wall across the Mexican border? Will work just halt, leaving what was built as a white elephant on the border? So many decisions to be made. I hardly dare mention Guantanamo. Obama tried and failed to close it. Will Biden have a go? If he is going to be pressured from day one by the most progressive wing of the Democratic Party to introduce far-left policies, Guantanamo will surely be on their to-do list? Trump was quite happy for the Guantanamo detention camp to stay open for business and there was even talk about sending more terrorist suspects there but it never happened. Guantanamo is a forgotten boil on the face of the United States. There are just 40 detainees there today, costing American taxpayers a fortune in security and protection bills. They should be brought to the US for trial. Congress will have to be persuaded. The military commission system for Guantanamo detainees has patently not worked. I suspect however it will be way down Biden's priority list. Trump did his best to overturn everything Obama did in his eight years. Now it's Biden's turn to do the same to Trump. That's politics for you. At least Trump only had four years!

Biden's surprisingly slam-dunk victory

SEVENTY-TWO DAYS TO GO As the Donald Trump four-year era counts down to zero, it has to be said that after all the predictions of a very close race (including by me), Joe Biden has accomplished a significant victory, winning both the popular vote by an historic amount and by a very satisfactory margin, the electoral college vote. In fact such an impressive win that even if Trump lawyers manage to squeeze back a few votes to their man it will still make no difference to the outcome. The outcome - and this is for Trump and his sons - is NOT going to change. We now have a president-elect and everyone in the world bar Vladimir Putin, Xi Zinping, Kim Jong-un, the president of Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the increasingly awful Turkish president, have come out and congratulated Biden for his victory over Trump. Even another terrible leader, Nicolas Maduro, the alleged Venezuelan president, has commented about Biden and his willingness to work with the United States. Ha! The out-of-step leaders of Russia, China, North Korea, Mexico and Turkey are biding their time but it won't be long before they, too, will have to agree that Trump is on the way out. See above. By all accounts Trump is listening to no one and remains determined to fight Biden and the Democrats in the courts, thus making sure that his legacy will be shrouded in legal bluster and shameful accusations of a fake election. Who will dare speak to him and tell him to behave himself and do the right thing? None of his staff, clearly. Mark Meadows, his chief of staff, has tested positive with coronavirus and is out of it, Mike Pompeo could tell him but pobably won't. After all he has to live with him as his secretary of state until January 19. See above! The only person he might listen to is his daughter Ivanka. But she will feel sorry for her Daddy and won't want to be too harsh. His sons won't do it because they are hellbent on going to the courts to fight for their right to stay as the White House family. So maybe in the end it will be that long-suffering wife, First Lady Melania Trump who is apparently looking forward to a new life away from her husband once they leave the White House. Perhaps she might turn to the defeated presidential husband and say: "Oh for the goodness sake, Donald, stop being the child and act like a growed-up. I'm outa here."

Donald Trump is done finished kaputski!

However much he struggles and shouts and screams unfair and false and fake Donald Trump must know he is, as the headline says, done, finished, kaputski. Unless there is a miracle (miracle for him obviously) change in the voting choices still unchecked in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada, Trump will no longer be president and commander-in-chief on midnight January 19 2021. It's an extraordinary reversal for him. As someone who beat all the odds to defeat Hillary Clinton and become the 45th president in 2016, he now knows surely that he is not going to win a second term. The mathematics, Mr President, are against you big time. Never mind the laywers stuff, that's all waffle. If there is no evidence of voter fraud - and this is America for heaven's sake, not some "shit country" as he would call it - then lawyers will soon run out of steam because there is nothing to put before the judges. Again, deep down, Trump must know this. And even if he doesn't or refuses to listen to sensible people, there are others around him who absolutely know that this fight-to-the-finish legal battle nonsense is both futile and embarrassing. Mike Pence, vice president, has obviously got the message. Even though he is supporting Trump, as he always has, he is not screaming false and fake. He realises that his days of being vice president are also fast approaching the finishing line. He will fancy his chances of going for the White House job in 2024, although Trump is also hellbent on having another go, according to a former chief of staff. But in the meantime, Trump and Pence, it's time to step aside and let Sleepy Joe take the reins. He'll only do four years. So go and have a rest. But go, please go. No more of this ranting and raving. It's sooooo cringing. My only extra plea, Mr President --- please don't try again in 2024. You had your chance and you blew it.

It's time for Trump to read the runes

The clearest sign that Donald Trump is on the way out is the singularly spectacular dumping of him by the senior hierarchy of the Republican Party. They want nothing to do with his accusations of wholesale fraud and stop-the-vote demands. Those Republican politicians who have been reelected to the Senate are already thinking ahead to a Joe Biden administration and how they can deal with him and his more socialist-leaning colleagues, such as Bernie Sanders. The reaction to Trump's outraged statements about election fraud has been deafening by its silence. Republican senators may have all kinds of different views about all kinds of different things but the one thing they all agree on is the Founding Fathers' constitution and the way democracy works in the United States of America. Running around accusing the opposition of stealing the election without any evidence doesn't fit in with their view of how a president should conduct himself, Republican or Democrat. Indeed, it's thanks to the constitution and the election system that they are continuing to be senators. They were reelected, Mr President, thanks to good old-fashioned democracy at work. So Trump is getting no encouragement from the hugely satisfied reelected Republican senators, thank you very much. The only comment some of them have made is to support the view that all votes should be legal which is defnitely not the same as saying Biden is winning because all of his votes are illegal. Others, such as Senator Marco Rubio, a potential Republican president of the future, has expressed concern at the way Trump has resorted to accusing and abusing the Democrats. So, Mr President for another 74 days only, it's time to read the runes. Not only are you losing the presidential election (or reelection in his case), you are being abandoned by the grandees of your own party. Another sign of Trump's growing anger and frustration at the way he thinks he is being treated is that he got his two sons to make public complaints about the scandalous silence of his fellow Republicans. A family affair, all the less impressive for that. By the time the weekend is over it looks like Biden will have won Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania or as near as dammit. Then, Mr President for-not-much-longer-but-too-long-even-so, it will be your great opportunity to drop all this legal nonsense, accept the inevitable and be maganinmous in defeat. Will it happen? NO.

Biden inches forward but Trump's lawyers lurk

Donald Trump appears to be running out of time and options, apart from resorting to the courts. Looking at the map you can see why the US is so divided politically. It's all red in the heartland and blue round the edges east and west. But the numbers for Biden look to be beyond Trump. If Biden does snatch the prize from the incumbent to become the 46th president he will face a near-impossible task of uniting the country and persuading the Senate to support him. Mitch McConnell will continue to reign supreme as the Republican leader of the Senate and many of the Republicans who had been facing the chop actually survived, and easily, like Lindsey Graham. It's a paradox. Had Trump been leading the field, stretching the gap between him and Biden, you would have expected to see an increasing Republican majority in the Senate and a narrowing of the margin in the House of Representatives, even possibly taking control. Yet here we have Biden leading the field, albeit not substantially, and the Republicans will remain in charge of the Senate and the Democrats have performed pretty poorly in the House although still retaining control. It doesn't make sense. Perhaps the Democrat candidates were just not good enough even for Democrat voters. It's the only answer. If Biden wins Pennsylvania - and we might know by the end of today - the presidency will be his. Unless of course the figures are very close in which case there could be a recount or it will be the courts who decide. Trump has remained on 214 electoral college votes for 24 hours, while Biden has edged forward to 253. So unless Trump suddenly sees the last few states swinging in his favour, he is going to lose. "I don't like losing", he said yesterday. Well, get used to it, Mr President. You have another 75 days left of your presidency. Basically Trump has to win Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina to beat Biden. He could do it but according to all the counting estimates so far, Biden is ahead in two of the states. It could all be over by the end of the day, bar the court action which could drag it on to next week. After such a tumultuous four years it seems like tempting fate to say this but: Trump will go down in history as a one-term president. He ain't going to like that. Not one bit.