Guns or diplomacy

Trump wants to boost the Pentagon's budget by $54 billion. Nothing wrong with that per se, except for one thing. He wants to emasculate the State Department and drop environment protection to pay for it. The poor State Department, it has never been in such a vulnerable position for decades. Trump obviously thinks all that diplomatic stuff can go hang. Who needs diplomats when you've got generals and admirals and nice big guns and tanks and stuff? Well, of course, that ain't true. The Brits invented what they call defence diplomacy which means having diplomats operating in the most sensitive and often dangerous nations spreading western values and emphasising peace not war. It can actually work. Some of the really good Brit diplomats and, by the way, MI6 station chiefs dotted around the world, can have huge influence - though probably more in the old days than today. Building up America's military capabilities sends a message to potential adversaries that under Trump the US is going to be as mighty as it was once was under Ronnie Reagan. But if the State Department is to be reduced to a junior status, that will also send a message around the world - that American diplomacy no longer matters. But who negotiated the Iran nuclear deal, whether you like it or not? Was it generals with guns or serious diplomats and nuclear experts? Could John Kerry have played such an important role if he had been regarded by Obama as a cabinet member of no importance? The answer is no! There are going to be numerous occasions during the Trump administration in which supreme diplomacy will be called upon to avoid conflicts, wars and disasters. If Rex Tillerson is going to have his department turned into an also-ran agency, then God help the rest of us. War should always be the last possible resort. Having more guns and warships and nuclear warheads than anyone else may seem like a great idea from Trump's point of view, but will it lead to a more stable and safer world? As anyone who understands deterrence theology knows, adding more and more nuclear missiles to your arsenal does not make you safer or better. For nuclear deterrence you need maximum credibility but it doesn't have to be based on a huge arsenal. Sufficiency is the name of the deterrence game. Enough to deter an enemy from striking first. Trump seems to think that if the US has a lot  more and a lot better nukes than any other country, that's all that matters. But if he starts to boost the nuke stocks, then what? Russia, China, North Korea, Pakistan, India....they will all think it's ok to follow suit. Nuke proliferation! As for environment protection, I doubt Trump knows what that means, and even if he does, he doesn't care.

Trump Oscars

So after a month of Trump, it's time for the traditional Oscar ceremony in which special awards are given for presidential achievements or non-achievements. The voting was nearly unanimous, except for a few radically right-wing members of the voting committee who wore blindfolds and deaf aids throughout the selection meeting.
Best Actor:
Donald J Trump for a superlative acting performance without a script. Probably the best improvised delivery of words, shouts, tweets and abuse since Mel Gibson's street drama performances. Such a dominating acting role that no one else was worthy of being considered.
Best Actress:
Melania Trump,  a unique acting debut, although not on general release, only in cinemas in New York. Accused in the past of taking other people's lines, she has come into her own without grabbing the limelight. Looked pretty good on the red carpet. Close second, Ivanka Trump who is predicted to take on a starring role in the planned Disney Trump biopic, The World of Donald Duck.
Best Male in Supporting Role:
Steve Bannon, for being everywhere all the time, although never happy to be in a support role. Rumoured to be pretending to be the real president. with Trump in the sidelines. Others shortlisted were Jim Mattis, for always looking so serious, Jared Kushner, for never missing out on Oval Office photographs, Jeff Sessions, for trying to be a nice guy but not succeeding, and Rex Tillerson who lost out because no one could find him. Sean Spicer was originally considered until someone on the committee pointed out he was a fake.
Best Female in Supporting Role:
Kellyanne Conway, for sheer effrontery and a brilliant marketing bid for Ivanka Fashions.
Best Scriptwriting:
Donald J and his tweets
Best Editing:
No one won the award on this occasion. Few examples of editing in evidence.
Best Foreign Film:
No entries allowed.
Best director:
Steve Bannon
Best Film:
Donald Trump the President, but it was a mistake, the real winner was Vladimir Putin the President.

Dear friend departed

There are times in life when the only word you can think of to describe a really appalling situation is "shit"! I don't often resort to four-letter words, and this has nothing to do with my world view of anything, let alone Trump. This is purely personal. A dear lovely friend I have known for 40 years, a dynamic, good-looking bloke with an adorable wife and great children, was hit with the most dreadful disease, no explanation, no reason, nothing he ever did, it just arrived in his body and started slowly to destroy him. He was always the fittest guy you could imagine, he looked like he could live  to a venerable age. But this terrible disease stopped him in his tracks, destroyed his life, turned his body into unmoveable concrete. Motor Neurone Disease. A totally unforgiving monster of a disease. From being the most active and energetic guy, he was slowly and then rapidly reduced to almost nothing. He has now died, gone, just gone. It is so heartbreaking and so unjust and so terrible and so inexplicable. His death has made me feel overwhelmingly mortal, and angry and wanting answers to a million questions. But there are no answers, not for something as grossly cruel as this.

Mosul and Raqqa

Inside the Pentagon and US Central Command in Tampa, Florida, the general view was that the best way to defeat Isis would be to attack Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria roughly at the same time. This would effectively drive them out of their two bastions and put Isis into limbo. Still dangerous and looking for some other sanctuary for their caliphate plans but definitely screwed for the time being. The trouble with this grand plan is that it ain't going to happen. The Mosul campaign is going reasonably well and there's a chance that the western part of the city could be liberated within the next four to six months, or even quicker if the Isis leadership escape en bloc for, guess where, Raqqa. A lot of them have gone already. The campaign to free Raqqa of the black flag militants is desperately slow, simply because there is no army with combat armour fighting Isis in or even close to the Syrian city. Instead, it's a hotchpotch of Arab and Kurdish fighters who have come together with training and financing by US, British and other coalition member nations. If the top Isis leadership all assemble in Raqqa and put all their efforts into hanging on to their so-called caliphate stronghold, the battle for Raqqa could take years. Unless, of course, Trump and/or the Russians and/or the Turks decide to send ground troops in to back them up. It could happen! But, either way, it has been impossible to synchronise the attack on Mosul with an attack on Raqqa. As important as it is to liberate Mosul it is vital that Raqqa is freed, too. But while the campaign against Raqqa has seen some significant success in nearby villages and towns, the "caliphate" capital itself remains totally in Isis hands and looks likely to be for a long time. Perhaps General Jim Mattis, Pentagon chief, will come up with a brilliant scheme to bring forward the fall of Raqqa. He has been given a set timetable by Trump to produce new ideas to defeat Isis. I predict that whatever Mattis recommends, it will mean more US troops deploying to Syria to add to the 500 already there.

Where is the US Sec of State?

Well, ok, Rex Tillerson has been in Mexico, facing an irate president over The Wall, but America's top diplomat as they like to call the secretary of state, has been almost invisible since he was appointed. The Department of State must be desperately worried. They like to be top dogs in the Washington arena, right in the forefront of policy-making. After Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, the department had got used to having Big Cheese secretaries of state, with the ear of the president and influencing everything remotely smelling of foreign and security policy. But Tillerson, a career oil man, has either been fumbling with all his briefs, not knowing where to start or he hasreceived a message from the White House that he's not really important enough to be part of Trump's  inner circle. So far the Trump acolytes making all the running are Jim Mattis, Pentagon boss, and Mike Pence, Vice-President, and perhaps also Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Tillerson has been noticeably absent from all the big policy moves, Mike Pompeo, CIA chief, hasn't raised his head above the parapet as yet, Dan Coates - who is Dan Coates - allegedly the replacement for Obama's James Clapper as director of national intelligence, is finding his feet, John Kelly at homeland security is spending his days devising countless draft memos on ways to kick out illegal immigrants, and other members of the cabinet don't really count. Poor Tillerson, he looks the part, tall, broad-shouldered, still has all his hair and seems potentially powerful. But Trump is ignoring him. Go away and be diplomatic, but watch out for my tweets, then you'll know what to do, Trump probably told him. When  Clinton and then Kerry ran State, it was the Pentagon which was always desperately trying to get its voice heard. Now, under Mad Dog Mattis, the Pentagon is up there with the big boys. Mattis actually says what he wants and clearly doesn't care what the likes of Steve Bannon want him to say or do. So come on Rex Tillerson, make your voice heard or the State Department is going to shrink into insignificance,

Generals to the rescue

Some of America's greatest presidents were generals. Others had distinguished war records although in more junior officer ranks. So the club of generals inside President Trump's cabinet is not unusual. Indeed, following the appointment of Lieutenant-General HR McMaster as the national security adviser - universally praised in Washington and around the US - there is a new sense that Trump's team is suddenly looking pretty smart. Ok, we had three generals before when retired Lieutenant-General Mike Flynn was national security adviser - along with General Jim Mattis at defence (defense in US lingo) and General John Kelly at homeland security. But Flynn was...well, less said the better. Now we have three stalwart generals, all with fine military careers, exceptional command experience and renowned man/woman managers. So there's hope for all Americans of whatever political persuasion. That doesn't mean Trump is now on a rosy path to greatness. There are bound to be moments when his combative, off-the-cuff leadership style will clash with his three generals, and if the president continues with his wild, unreconstructed foreign policy statements, these eminent military men may start to think again about serving in his administration. But they need to stick with it. With all their experience they should each be able to see off the elephant in the situation room. No, not Trump, Steve Bannon, his extreme right wing chief strategist. The toughest job of the three is General McMaster's. Jim Mattis has a huge department to run and several military campaigns to sort out, and John Kelly has the nightmare of confronting Trump's immigration policies. McMaster will be in charge of a small White House section of around 230 people, constantly in the presence of the president and every day expected to come up with sound judgment, good ideas and a total grasp of every conceivable foreign and security policy issue. McMaster was a supreme tank commander. His conviction was always to plough on and never give a moment of rest to the enemy. His most famous battle was in the Gulf War in 1991, known as the Battle of 73 Easting when his unit destroyed  25 Iraqi tanks, 16 armoured personnel carriers and 30 trucks. Once the first tank shells were fired against the opposition, he never stopped until the enemy was silenced. It was brutal but immensely effective, albeit exhausting for the 140 men under his command. If he follows this philosophy in the White House, then watch out Trump, Bannon, Rex Tillerson at State, et al. He will power-drive his views through every policy challenge. McMaster will know that he is in good historic company. He will always be able to quote the words of past legendary generals who went on to become president of the United States, such as George Washington, Ulysses S Grant and Dwight Eisenhower. They were all devotees of the same military doctrine - push on against all opposition.

The right man

Well, that was a surprise. Donald Trump has got it right at last. The appointment of Lieutenant-General Herbert "HR" McMaster as the National Security Adviser to replace the disgraced Michael Flynn is a smart move by the billionaire property and casino magnate who never served one day in military uniform for his country. General McMaster has the right stuff to head the National Security Council. He won't kowtow to anyone, least of all, I hope, Trump's man in the NSC, Steve Bannon. McMaster is a tough guy but also totally honourable in the old-fashioned sense of the word. He knows what's right and sticks by his values and principles. For example, he made sure when he was a commander in Iraq that all prisoners were properly and humanely treated. Maybe a small point, but I predict that McMaster, in his new role, will vociferously oppose any move by Trump to revert to using torture against suspected terrorist detainees. McMaster will want to have his own staff around him in the NSC and this could lead to trouble, particularly with Bannon, who has his own ideas about the sort of individuals he would prefer sitting in the NSC. When Flynn departed there were still about 60 appointments out of 230 unfilled, and that was partly because of reluctance among serving CIA intelligence officers and State Department officials to join the NSC under Trump/Bannon. If McMaster can bring in his own men and women, then there's a sporting chance he will survive longer than the three months some of his friends were giving him last night. McMaster has a superior brain, he's a former protege of General David Petraeus who has welcomed his appointment as national security adviser, and is a highly respected strategist. So well done, Trump, you've chosen the right man. I never thought I would say that.