What's going on in the Pentagon?

How is it possible that the US defence secretary Lloyd Austin goes into hospital and then suffers complications from a "medical procedure" involving surgery, and no one was told about it for days? If President Biden gets a cold, the world knows and medical bulletins are posted. But Austin, in one of the most senior and sensitive jobs in the Biden administration, goes to hospital and hands over the reigns to his deputy who just happens to be on holiday in Puerto Rico and not a single official in the Pentagon lets the president know or anyone else in the national security team. It's so bizarre that it's almost beyond belief. Was it such a delicate medical procedure that Austin didn't want anyone to know about it? This defence secretary has been mostly so sure-footed that it makes little sense. He did once say that one of the ohjectives of the US support for Ukraine was to degrade Russia's warfighting capability so that the Russian army couldn't carry out any more offensives in the future which caused a bit of a stir. But apart from that, Austin has been solid and reliable. His only other fault is his lack of enthusiasm for appearing before the media. Perhaps that's why he must have told his officials in his private office that he didn't want his medical procedure bandied about in the press and so he told them to keep quiet about it. But not telling the Wite House? Surely that was his responsibility? It's a huge mistake on his part and Congress which always wants to be told everything will hammer away until they see heads rolling.

What if the US Supreme Court rules against Trump?

So the Supreme Court of the United States has agreed to rule on the historic decision by the Colorado supreme court to prohibit Donald Trump from standing as Republican presidential candidate in the state because of his breach of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment of the US constitution which disallows anyone holding public office who has incited or inspired a rebellion against the nation. The ruling is expected in February. Three of the judges on the Supreme Court were appointed by Trump but there is no guarantee that that will save Trump from the ignominious position of being banned from standing for the presidency. No wonder Trump is said to be concerned that he won't get the ruling he needs and wants because the judges have stipulated that whatever decision they make it will hold for every state, not just Colorado. That's huge, big-time, mammoth! What if the judges rule by a majority that Trump is ineligible to stand because of his perceived involvement in the January 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol and his attempts to override the 2020 election result? Such a ruling would be greeted with anger by every Trump loyalist. And then what? The Colorado supreme court judges, three women and four men, produced a detailed argument running to more than 120 pages. Legal experts concede the ruling was properly and decisively argued. The highest court in the land will be examining exactly the same arguments and could come to the same conclusion. But could it be argued that this would be a ruling against democracy, in other words a ruling that would prevent a huge number of voters from voting for the person of their choice to be the next president? If the judges discount this as an argument for keeping Trump's name on the ballot paper, the consequences could be both dangerous and unpredictable.

Antony Blinken on an impossibe mission to Israel

The US secretary of state Antony Blinken is making yet another visit to Israel and elsewhere in the Middle East. It's like the old-style shuttle diplomacy of the Cold War. He has already tried to persuade Israel to adopt a different path over the bombardment of Gaza and to start thinking of the future of the Palestinians. But it seems he has lost the argument because the Israeli defence minister has now outlined how the Tel Aviv government views a future Gaza. It is to be a territory secured and controlled by Israel, although the Palestinians left from the bombing will be allowed to govern themselves. That's a formula that is never going to find favour in Washington. Joe Biden wants a Palestinian state with independence. There will be no independence with Israeli troops on the streets. So Blinken's visit is going to be even tougher than usual. I don't know how well he stands up to Binyamin Netanyahu but I doubt the Israeli prime minister is in a mood to give an inch to his American visitor. He has decided he wants Israel to retain firm control of Gaza and the West Bank and that's the way it's going to stay for as long as he is in power. I wonder, if there was an election in Israel today, whether the majority of Israeli people would agree with him.

Of course it was Isis who killed more than 80 Iranians

After the double bomb explosion in Iran which it was initially claimed had killed more than 100 people commemorating the death of General Qasem Soleimani, some figures in Tehran leapt in and blamed Israel and the United States. Yet it was perfectly obvious to anyone who has followed the terrorist activities of the Islamic State that it was an atrocity committed by Isis. One of the bombs was a suicide bomb. This is pure Isis modus operandi and it made absolutely no sense to accuse Israel of being responsible for the attack. Isis has carried out simliar attacks in Iran in recent years. Isis hated Soleimani, the late leader of the Islamic Revoutionary Guard Corps's Quds Force, who was killed by an American drone strike at Baghdad airport in January 2020. Soleimani had authorised numerous strikes aganst Isis in Iran while he ran the powerful Quds Force. So a twin bomb explosion aimed at killing as many pro-Soleimani mourners as possible, was always going to be Isis, and never Israel. But with the Middle East on fire over the war in Gaza and the missile launches by Houthi rebels across the Red Sea, the explosions in Iran fed into the general anti-Israel narrative. The Supreme Ayatollah has vowed to take revenge against the perpetrators of the bomb attacks. I assume someone has told him to aim his ire at Isis and not at Israel or the US.

Israel going for precision strikes

After the mass bombardments of Gaza and the presence of thousands of troops from the Israel Defence Forces, it now seems the Tel Aviv government is switching to targeted precision strikes to eliminate Hamas. But precision strikes against the top Hamas leaders in Gaza are not going to be as easy as the attack on the Hamas deputy political leader sitting in a meeting in an apartment in the suburbs of Beirut. Of course it took exceptional intelligence to discover where Saleh al-Arouri was to make sure the drone missile was going to go through the right window. But the deputy leader of the Hamas political bureau, with close links to the military wing and to Hezbollah and Iran, was a relatively simple target. He was seen and identified by the drone operators in Israel and all they had to do was press a button. With the Hamas leaders in Gaza, identification was always going to be harder because they are underground. Whatever meetings they are attending are hundreds of feet below. Drones will neither find them nor kill them. The main two, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, have remained out of sight since the IDF crossed over into Gaza and they are unlikely to emerge at any point. But with thousands of reservists now being sent home, the strategy is changing. Less fighting on a large scale and more intelligence-driven targeted attacks. This is why Netanyahu and his military commanders are warning the war could continue for many more months.

Air defence will be key to war in Ukraine this year

If the first two days of the New Year are anything to go by, Vladimir Putin's strategy for the war in Ukraine this year is to bombard Kyiv and other cities with kamikaze drones and cruise missiles non-stop. The bombardments have increased significantly at the same time as the Kyiv government is appealing for more air defence systems to counter the attacks. With US funding drying up thanks to Congress indecision and internal fighting, Kyiv may have to rely on Europe to send the necessary weapons. Air defence is going to be the key ingredient throughout this year and unless Kyiv gets enough Patriots and other anti-missile systems, Putin is going to hammer Ukraine to oblivion. The long-awaited F-16s will beconme operational in Ukraine this year, but they won't stop the drones and cruise missiles from flying over the country. The struggle to get enough air defence weapons in play could be the defining moment for Ukraine. Many other advanced battlefield systems sent to Ukraine, including western tanks and long-range artillery and rockets, have not so far made much difference because the land battles have effectively ground to a halt. The Russians have built such massive defences along their frontlines that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has stalled. So it's going to be a missile and drone war and Kyiv is outgunned. Ukrainian cities have the grim prospect of facing Putin's wrath following the attacks over the Russian border into Belgorod. We are going to see more and more of these tit-for-tat strikes, and Moscow has the stronger hand.

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza will not stop in 2024

It is almost certain that this time next year the wars in Ukraine and Gaza will still be going on which means thousands and thousands more people will die and thousands and thousands more buildngs, including people's homes, will be destroyed. This is the most pessimistic but most realistic prediction for 2024. Nothing the rest of the world can do or should do will make any difference. Even if the US funding for Ukraine dries up for months, Ukraine will battle on, increasingly turning to their own home-made weapons, and even if the US starts to pull back from full support for Israel, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) will carry on fighting until Hamas has or is perceived to have been conquered and eliminated. In a world where severe climate-change weather conditions are going to affect everyone, it is tragic that certain leaders just want to use war to resolve what they have decided is the only way to achieve their objectives. Putin and Netanyahu are never going to give up. So that means war and killings and destruction for another whole year. And beyond.