Trump will hang on until the very end

SIXTY-SIX DAYS TO GO. I have never seen such a sombre Donald Trump. No fire left, just an unstated acknowledgement that he might not be forming the next administration. His Rose Garden statement to the press was so unlike the Trump we have known for the last four years. Head down, no arm-waving. No pointing at members of the media, no slogans. He made his statement and then swivelled round and walked off in a very heavy sort of way, shoulders down. No Q and A. Not for the media who, he believes, campaigned against him from the moment he stepped into the White House in January 2017. But despite all that there is no question that he will fight to the end. He still believes that, for example, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia will be awarded to him eventually. And of course he won North Carolina, quite substantially. Everyone else in America knows that Joe Biden has won and will be president on January 20 2021. But Trump just will not accept the reality facing him. He looked a sorrowful figure. It was his first public appearance for about eight days. His closest aides had advised him to keep a low profile and he actually did as they suggested. Amazing. As it stands Biden is set to get 306 electoral college votes and so Trump has absolutely no chance of catching up let alone overtaking. His sombre look said everything but he still won't concede. Never, not in the proper traditional way.

Ageing Biden versus new feisty Democrat generation

SIXTY-SEVEN DAYS TO GO. Joe Biden still has more than nine weeks before he takes over the White House (Trump willing) but already he is facing up to the feisty set of young new-breed Democrats who are hoping for, no demanding, a radical and progressive programme which older Democrats, including Biden himself, are afraid the nation will view as socialism with a big S. Biden is by instinct and record a centrist who will seek the middle way with everything, probably even on climate-change although his ideas at the moment look to be pretty far-reaching. But the new generation of Congress members on the Democrat side are not going to put up with soft, soggy politics. They want radicalism to take over the country. I'm thinking here mainly about the Famous Four Congresswomen, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York), Rashida Tlaib (Michigan), Ilhan Omar (Minnesota) and Ayanna Pressley (Massachusetts) - the so-called AOC Squad. Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest of the four at 31. Omar is 38, Tlaib, 44, and Pressley, 46. Joe Biden will be 78 on November 20. These four and others who support their progressive views will cause endless trouble for Biden when he takes over from Trump. But from the moment they launched themselves on the political scene they have added a breath of fresh invigorating air into the Democratic party. They are radical, sure, but they are firebrands of visionary ambition for their country. They will not just keep Biden on his toes, they will force him to be radical himself, to think the impossible even if Congress, especially a Republican-driven Senate, treads heavily on any truly transformative policies. The Democratic party needs the AOC Squad to inject new ideas and inspirational dreams into future policy-making. Nancy Pelosi, an institution who dared to stand up to Trump, is 80 and will be more wary of these four than anyone in the party. But it will be up to Biden and Pelosi - combined age nearly 160 years - to gather in the freshness and enthusiasm of the AOC Squad and make it work for the good of the whole nation over the next four years. I refuse to believe that Biden's first term is going to be destroyed by divisions both within the country and within the Democratic party.

Trump wants all troops out of Afghanistan before he leaves

SIXTY-EIGHT DAYS TO GO: From the way the Pentagon is being reshaped with Trumpite loyalists being appointed, it's pretty clear what the president is up to. He wants to get all American troops out of Afghanistan before he leaves office on January 20. If he does leave by January 20 of course. It's one of the legacy achievements I am convinced he is determined to have placed in concrete and he's running out of time. So out goes Mark Esper, the defence secretary he had begun to dislike quite a lot, in goes an outsider to do as his master orders, and most of the top civilian jobs are suddenly filled by other Trumpites. And to add spice to the Afghanistan all-out theory, Chris Miller, the new acting defence secretary, has bizarrely appointed someone as his main adviser who I assume was Trump's choice: Colonel Douglas Macgregor, retired but a very opinionated commentator for Fox News, especially on Afghanistan. He agrees with Trump that America's involvement should be brought swiftly to an end with not a single US soldier left. Although this is part of the deal signed with the Taliban, the withdrawal of the remaining 4,500 or so troops is supposed to be, as the military love saying, conditions-based. That means that if violence is still at a high level and the Taliban are still attacking Afghan security forces by the time the deal is supposed to be fully implemented next year then the US reserves the right to keep some forces in Afghanistan until stability is firm and settled. For the military that would mean keeping at least 2,500 special operations troops in situ to remind the Taliban of their commitment to the peace deal. I think Trump is more interested in honouring his pledge to get all US troops out than play a quid pro quo brinkmanship game with the Taliban. He probably thinks that if he gets all the troops out by Christmas, the Taliban might offer in return a total ceasefire. But if all US troops are pulled out it's far more likely that the Taliban will push on hard militarily to get maximum advantage before agreeing a political sharing deal with the Kabul government. So, this is what it's all about. The Pentagon changes are about Afghanistan, and if General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, tries to stop him from getting every soldier out by Christmas, Trump will just get him replaced. Watch this space.

What is Trump plotting?

SIXTY-NINE DAYS TO GO: There are so many whispers going around that Donald Trump is plotting some sort of coup. Never mind the legal action about the vote counting in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Alaska and North Carolina, it's something much darker. Well I have never believed in conspiracy theories and I won't make an exception even for Trump but the coup rumours are symptomatic of the fears going around that the president, now 69 days away from being ousted from the White House, is not going to play ball and will stay put. It hasn't helped that Trump has started to stuff the Pentagon with 100 per cent Trumpites, notably Anthony Tata, ex-Fox News aficionado, as under secretary of defence for policy, the third highest position in the Pentagon. But, unless I am mistaken or haven't heard yet, General Mark Milley is still chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and I can't see him staying silent if Trump suddenly orders something perceived to be outrageous or wrong or unlawful. These last 69 days are going to be tense and worrying. But Joe Biden and his transition people seem to be relaxed, laughing at Trump's behaviour. But beware, Mr President Elect, while Trump is in the White House you cannot be sure of anything. And there are more than 70 million American voters who are stamping their feet in anger and disbelief that their chosen man will no longer be president on January 20. A coup? No, but we don't know what may happen. Biden should be prepared.

There is a kind of madness going on in Washington

SEVENTY DAYS TO GO: For most of the rest of the world Donald Trump is gone and Joe Biden is already being presidential and marking out his territory for taking over the White House on January 20. But in the US, and in particular in Washington DC, there is a kind of madness going on. Trump is back in the White House and seems to have drawn up a list of revenge sackings. Mark Esper, the defence secretary, was the first to go, or "terminated" as Trump kindly put it in his tweet. Now James Anderson, acting top dog on defence policy at the Pentagon, has resigned because he knew he was about to be pushed. The directors of the CIA and FBI are on borrowed time and who knows who else will be on the Trump chopping block. Will his new acting defence secretary, Christopher Miller, formerly director of the National Counterterrorism Center, be ordered to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan by Christmas, and all the remaining troops in Syria and complete the reduction in troop numbers in Germany before January 19? He knew Esper would never have agreed to all these orders. But was there a deal with Miller? "You get all these troops out as I promised the American people and you can be defence secretary for the next 70 days." Miller was a hotshot at the NCTC but how on earth is he going to cope at the Pentagon with Trump breathing fire down his neck. Apart from the sackings, there is all the craziness about the election and the voting. The Republicans have finally given their backing to Trump's demand for legal action, and court action has begun. Will any judge in the land agree to overturn the count and put Trump back in the frame? Surely not. They would be arguing against the constitution. So we have two presidents operating at the same time, Trump fighting for survival and kicking out at anyone who doesn't show him absolute loyalty, and Joe Biden assuming the mantle of the president as president-elect and ushering in the post-Trump era. There is going to be a mighty clash at some point. I don't mean violent. I mean a political rumpus like you have never seen before.

Everything Trump espoused will be overturned

SEVENTY-ONE DAYS TO GO Joe Biden can't be accused of being sleepy, even by Donald Trump. He is still 71 days away from taking over from Trump but already he and his officials have outlined a progressive programme from day one of his presidency. Right at the top - after tackling the coronavirus pandemic with a federal mask-wearing edict - will be climate change. After four years of a president refusing to believe the reality of the climate changing fast around the world, we will now have exactly the opposite, a president who trusts the scientists and will act accordingly. Rejoin the Paris agreement will be Biden's first move. Then there's the Iran nuclear deal fixed under Barack Obama. I assume the US will rejoin that too, although that nice chap the supreme ayatollah in Tehran welcomed Biden's victory like he had a bad smell under his nose. So we'll have to see whether Iran plays ball with a Biden America. I somehow doubt Biden will rush into lifting economic sanctions aganst Iran. Then there's America's exit from the International Nuclear Forces Treaty and the proposed extension to the New Start nuclear treaty and will Biden revive America's participation in the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty? The US withdrew from it in 2002 under George W Bush. And what about the millions of dollars already spent on beginning the Trump Wall across the Mexican border? Will work just halt, leaving what was built as a white elephant on the border? So many decisions to be made. I hardly dare mention Guantanamo. Obama tried and failed to close it. Will Biden have a go? If he is going to be pressured from day one by the most progressive wing of the Democratic Party to introduce far-left policies, Guantanamo will surely be on their to-do list? Trump was quite happy for the Guantanamo detention camp to stay open for business and there was even talk about sending more terrorist suspects there but it never happened. Guantanamo is a forgotten boil on the face of the United States. There are just 40 detainees there today, costing American taxpayers a fortune in security and protection bills. They should be brought to the US for trial. Congress will have to be persuaded. The military commission system for Guantanamo detainees has patently not worked. I suspect however it will be way down Biden's priority list. Trump did his best to overturn everything Obama did in his eight years. Now it's Biden's turn to do the same to Trump. That's politics for you. At least Trump only had four years!

Biden's surprisingly slam-dunk victory

SEVENTY-TWO DAYS TO GO As the Donald Trump four-year era counts down to zero, it has to be said that after all the predictions of a very close race (including by me), Joe Biden has accomplished a significant victory, winning both the popular vote by an historic amount and by a very satisfactory margin, the electoral college vote. In fact such an impressive win that even if Trump lawyers manage to squeeze back a few votes to their man it will still make no difference to the outcome. The outcome - and this is for Trump and his sons - is NOT going to change. We now have a president-elect and everyone in the world bar Vladimir Putin, Xi Zinping, Kim Jong-un, the president of Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the increasingly awful Turkish president, have come out and congratulated Biden for his victory over Trump. Even another terrible leader, Nicolas Maduro, the alleged Venezuelan president, has commented about Biden and his willingness to work with the United States. Ha! The out-of-step leaders of Russia, China, North Korea, Mexico and Turkey are biding their time but it won't be long before they, too, will have to agree that Trump is on the way out. See above. By all accounts Trump is listening to no one and remains determined to fight Biden and the Democrats in the courts, thus making sure that his legacy will be shrouded in legal bluster and shameful accusations of a fake election. Who will dare speak to him and tell him to behave himself and do the right thing? None of his staff, clearly. Mark Meadows, his chief of staff, has tested positive with coronavirus and is out of it, Mike Pompeo could tell him but pobably won't. After all he has to live with him as his secretary of state until January 19. See above! The only person he might listen to is his daughter Ivanka. But she will feel sorry for her Daddy and won't want to be too harsh. His sons won't do it because they are hellbent on going to the courts to fight for their right to stay as the White House family. So maybe in the end it will be that long-suffering wife, First Lady Melania Trump who is apparently looking forward to a new life away from her husband once they leave the White House. Perhaps she might turn to the defeated presidential husband and say: "Oh for the goodness sake, Donald, stop being the child and act like a growed-up. I'm outa here."