Donald Trump is done finished kaputski!

However much he struggles and shouts and screams unfair and false and fake Donald Trump must know he is, as the headline says, done, finished, kaputski. Unless there is a miracle (miracle for him obviously) change in the voting choices still unchecked in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada, Trump will no longer be president and commander-in-chief on midnight January 19 2021. It's an extraordinary reversal for him. As someone who beat all the odds to defeat Hillary Clinton and become the 45th president in 2016, he now knows surely that he is not going to win a second term. The mathematics, Mr President, are against you big time. Never mind the laywers stuff, that's all waffle. If there is no evidence of voter fraud - and this is America for heaven's sake, not some "shit country" as he would call it - then lawyers will soon run out of steam because there is nothing to put before the judges. Again, deep down, Trump must know this. And even if he doesn't or refuses to listen to sensible people, there are others around him who absolutely know that this fight-to-the-finish legal battle nonsense is both futile and embarrassing. Mike Pence, vice president, has obviously got the message. Even though he is supporting Trump, as he always has, he is not screaming false and fake. He realises that his days of being vice president are also fast approaching the finishing line. He will fancy his chances of going for the White House job in 2024, although Trump is also hellbent on having another go, according to a former chief of staff. But in the meantime, Trump and Pence, it's time to step aside and let Sleepy Joe take the reins. He'll only do four years. So go and have a rest. But go, please go. No more of this ranting and raving. It's sooooo cringing. My only extra plea, Mr President --- please don't try again in 2024. You had your chance and you blew it.

It's time for Trump to read the runes

The clearest sign that Donald Trump is on the way out is the singularly spectacular dumping of him by the senior hierarchy of the Republican Party. They want nothing to do with his accusations of wholesale fraud and stop-the-vote demands. Those Republican politicians who have been reelected to the Senate are already thinking ahead to a Joe Biden administration and how they can deal with him and his more socialist-leaning colleagues, such as Bernie Sanders. The reaction to Trump's outraged statements about election fraud has been deafening by its silence. Republican senators may have all kinds of different views about all kinds of different things but the one thing they all agree on is the Founding Fathers' constitution and the way democracy works in the United States of America. Running around accusing the opposition of stealing the election without any evidence doesn't fit in with their view of how a president should conduct himself, Republican or Democrat. Indeed, it's thanks to the constitution and the election system that they are continuing to be senators. They were reelected, Mr President, thanks to good old-fashioned democracy at work. So Trump is getting no encouragement from the hugely satisfied reelected Republican senators, thank you very much. The only comment some of them have made is to support the view that all votes should be legal which is defnitely not the same as saying Biden is winning because all of his votes are illegal. Others, such as Senator Marco Rubio, a potential Republican president of the future, has expressed concern at the way Trump has resorted to accusing and abusing the Democrats. So, Mr President for another 74 days only, it's time to read the runes. Not only are you losing the presidential election (or reelection in his case), you are being abandoned by the grandees of your own party. Another sign of Trump's growing anger and frustration at the way he thinks he is being treated is that he got his two sons to make public complaints about the scandalous silence of his fellow Republicans. A family affair, all the less impressive for that. By the time the weekend is over it looks like Biden will have won Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania or as near as dammit. Then, Mr President for-not-much-longer-but-too-long-even-so, it will be your great opportunity to drop all this legal nonsense, accept the inevitable and be maganinmous in defeat. Will it happen? NO.

Biden inches forward but Trump's lawyers lurk

Donald Trump appears to be running out of time and options, apart from resorting to the courts. Looking at the map you can see why the US is so divided politically. It's all red in the heartland and blue round the edges east and west. But the numbers for Biden look to be beyond Trump. If Biden does snatch the prize from the incumbent to become the 46th president he will face a near-impossible task of uniting the country and persuading the Senate to support him. Mitch McConnell will continue to reign supreme as the Republican leader of the Senate and many of the Republicans who had been facing the chop actually survived, and easily, like Lindsey Graham. It's a paradox. Had Trump been leading the field, stretching the gap between him and Biden, you would have expected to see an increasing Republican majority in the Senate and a narrowing of the margin in the House of Representatives, even possibly taking control. Yet here we have Biden leading the field, albeit not substantially, and the Republicans will remain in charge of the Senate and the Democrats have performed pretty poorly in the House although still retaining control. It doesn't make sense. Perhaps the Democrat candidates were just not good enough even for Democrat voters. It's the only answer. If Biden wins Pennsylvania - and we might know by the end of today - the presidency will be his. Unless of course the figures are very close in which case there could be a recount or it will be the courts who decide. Trump has remained on 214 electoral college votes for 24 hours, while Biden has edged forward to 253. So unless Trump suddenly sees the last few states swinging in his favour, he is going to lose. "I don't like losing", he said yesterday. Well, get used to it, Mr President. You have another 75 days left of your presidency. Basically Trump has to win Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina to beat Biden. He could do it but according to all the counting estimates so far, Biden is ahead in two of the states. It could all be over by the end of the day, bar the court action which could drag it on to next week. After such a tumultuous four years it seems like tempting fate to say this but: Trump will go down in history as a one-term president. He ain't going to like that. Not one bit.

As usual nearly everyone got it wrong!

The Washington establishment, and in that august environment I include The New York Times and The Washington Post as well as 95 per cent of the most esteemed pollsters, simply got it wrong. Again. I never believed the polls showing a huge margin between Winning Biden and losing Trump. It just didn't make sense when you know that so many Republican voters don't necessarily want to tell the polling people the truth about how they are going to vote. ie Trump, no way changing to Biden. I'm talking here about ordinary folk, as Americans would say, not the really clever and in-the-know Republicans who decided ages ago that Trump should not be president - the Never-Trumpers. Ordinary folk often keep their views to themselves, either by giving answers that they think the pollsters want to hear or by not answering at all. The pollsters said Florida could have gone to Biden. But there was no way that was going to happen. Florida is full of Cuban immigrants who hated Castro's communis and Venezuelans who had fled to the wonderful United States of America to escape from the brutal "socialism" of President Nicholas Maduro. Why on earth would any of them vote for Biden who for all they know espouses the same sort of socialism they escaped from in their countries of birth? Florida was always going to go to Trump. I never had any doubt. I predicted that Trump would win in 2016, despite reading the most respected papers - see above - every day telling me that Hillary was streets ahead. She got clobbered and so did all those who were so sure Trump would be defeated. This time I have been predicting a very close result. Again in contrast to the majority of polls and Washington media who said Biden was heading for a big victory. With major states still to announce results, I believe the clever money will be on Trump winning reelection. If that happens the pollsters who got it so wrong again should take up market gardening and get plenty of fertiliser in. Trump for another four years? I reckon.

Trump's shortlist of sackings if he wins

Whatever the result in the US election certain key Trump cabinet members are going to be out of a job. Top of the list appears to be poor Mark Esper at the Pentagon. Dr Esper as he likes to be called has not been the most inspirational US defence (defense) secretary and he stuck his neck out once too often when dealing with his commander-in-chief. He wanted nothing to do with having troops on the streets during the Washington protests and showed about as much enthusiasm for bringing all US troops from Afghanistan back home by Christmas as a diner sitting in front of a plate of novichok salad. So if Trump wins reelection, Esper is out out out. If Biden wins, Esper is also out out out. Biden has in mind Michele Flournoy, a former head honcho on defence policy at the Pentagon and the founder of one of the hugely influential security think-tanks in DC. There is no possibility that Biden will ask Esper to stay on as Pentagon chief. Obama asked Bob Gates to stay as defence secretary when he took over from George W Bush. But Esper is no Gates. Then there's Gina Haspel, director of the CIA. Under normal circumstances she would expect to have to step down if Biden wins because he will have someone else lined up for such a crucial appointment. But if Trump wins, she might be out too. She has been at pains not to raise her head too much above the parapet since she took over. Her appointment after a career of covert intelligence service was well received within the CIA community. But she committed one grave error in the eyes of Donald Trump. She failed to leap to action when Trump was demanding a full-scale inquiry into his accusation that Obama secretly investigated him and the alleged links to Russia. She and others in the intelligence world said there was no evidence of any such thing. Even William Barr, the attorney general who is or was a Trumpite, didn't show much enthusiasm. Nor did Christopher Wray, the FBI director whose days are definitely numbered. So Gina Haspel might get the chop, and the FBI chief and maybe Barr as well, although he might survive a Trump reelection provided he shows 100 per cent loyalty and devotion. Anyone associated with health policy implementation will get the chop if Trump wins because he will want a clean sheet. Especially Dr Anthony Fauci, the virus-warning scientist who has fallen out with Trump so many times it's amazing he can still stand up. The only Trump appointee on the national security side likely to survive in his job if the 45th president wins is Mike Pompeo. He has remained totally loyal, although his failure to hand Kim Jong-un on a surrender plate may count against him. So there are going to be lots of new faces in the Washington establishment whether Trump or Biden is sitting in the Oval Office on January 20 2021.

Trump's lawyers are waiting in the wings

Donald Trump is all set to go to his lawyers when election night is over. He said so himself. "As soon as election is over we're going in with our lawyers." Particularly over Pennsylvania which will probaby be the tightest state of all and could be the decisive result to see who wins. Tuesday night is going to be one of the most volatile nights in America's political story. But hopefully not violent. Everywhere in Washington and in other cities the shops are being boarded up with what looks like rather inadequate cheap chipboard. But we all need a calm and decisive election. Gun sales are up by an alarming amount but fingers crossed this will be a moment in history when not a shot is fired. If Biden does win, either on the night or days/weeks later I shall be looking forward to seeing how Kamala Harris blossoms as vice president. I doubt she will be a quiet mouse in the background. She will have a chance to shine and make Biden look better too. If Biden loses, that will be one of my great regrets, not seeing Kamala Harris smiling from the White House. I stick to my prediction that this is going to be close call which, of coure, is why Trump has lined up his lawyers to be ready to start spouting constitutional law and drawing up all the arguments to present to the US Supreme Court. Good luck America.

Trump may be the underdog but he's still barking!

After nearly four years of Donald Trump it's difficult to think of him as an underdog. He would never refer to himself as an underdog. He's the Big Dog, with the Big Bite. But if the polls are to be believed, he is still the underdog in the presidential race because Joe Biden is ahead of him in the majority of the states, although the lead is narrowing. But with only two and a bit days to go before election day, being the supposed underdog is actually not a bad position for Trump because people often like to vote for the underdog if only to wipe the smile off the face of the expected winner. Joe Biden dare not go around looking as if he expects to win because if he loses the fall is going to be so mighty he might never again emerge again from his basement. In sport the underdog often wins because everyone in the crowd wills him or her to beat the favourite. Trump doesn't look or sound like an underdog and if he wins he will be so cocky the world better be on its guard. Biden and his Democrat campaign team are looking anxiously at the polls and wanting them to be true but are getting increasingly fearful that it's going to be 2016 all over again. Whereas Trump and his Republican campaign team are looking at the polls and convincing themselves that it WILL be a repeat of 2016, and that Biden will go the way of Hillary Clinton. It's going to be a tough call. All I can say is that Trump may be the underdog but my God he's still barking.