Kim gets away with it

Thanks to China and Russia, Kim Jong-un is laughing his head off. So there are new tough sanctions but they bear no resemblance to what Trump had in mind for the "crazy fat kid", to use the immortal description by Senator John McCain. Had Trump and delightful-looking UN ambassador Nikki Haley got their way, all oil and gas exports to North Korea would have been banned, and Kim's personal assets around the world would have been frozen. That would have theoretically destroyed North Korea's economy and brought Kim to his knees. I say theoretically because, as Putin knew when he got his ambassador to the UN to water down the sanctions, there are plenty of Russian businessmen prepared to sell North Korea what it wants, never mind the sanctions. So, in Putin's mind, what was the point of angering Kim so much with the toughest of all sanctions and give him an excuse to retaliate with a new ballistic missile test or nuclear test? Soften the blow and hope Kim doesn't go mad! It's crazy politics but in a Kremlinesque sort of way, the watered down version, supported by everyone in the UN, might make Kim think. I could be over optimistic but might Kim say to himself: "Ok, more sanctions but my friends in Moscow and Beijing have played a blinder and stopped that dreadful man Trump from trying to destroy my country. Soooo, I better be a good boy for a bit to show my appreciation. If I piss off Putin and Xi Zinping and go ahead with another ICBM launch, the next round of sanctions could really be tough." I don't know whether Kim thinks logically but if there are any advisers who have the balls to actually advise him, they should whisper into his ear that now is not the time to do another nuclear test or launch another missile. But there probably isn't anyone in his inner or outer circle who has such balls and Kim will be so angry at Trump for his sanctions wish list that he might ignore common sense and go for a big one - a Guam-directed missile launch. But, Kim, my advice is bite your tongue, take a breather and send a post card to Moscow and Beijing saying thanks for their support.

Hurricanes dominate the news

The hurricanes have been dominating the news agenda. Quite right too. But it is bizarre that as the hurricanes have caused flooding, fear and devastation in their wake, world news has almost stopped. Kim Jong-un did not launch any new ballistic missiles, as had been expected over this last weekend, and the UN sanctions resolution to punish North Korea for the ballistic missile launch over Japan is being watered down somewhat, presumably to keep China happy. But the only other major news story around has been the refugee turmoil in Myanmar's (Burma's) western Rankhine state. As the UN has said, the Myanmar government operations against the minority Muslim Rohingya community looks a lot like ethnic cleansing. But like so many emotive news stories, it's more complex than that. Those fleeing into Bangladesh for safety are as much victims of the militant Rohingya insurgents fighting the government forces in the area as they are from the soldiers trying to quell the insurgency. Violence breeds violence and the minority community are caught in the middle. Had there not been a hurricane raging across Florida, perhaps the tragedy of the Rohingya refugees would have made more of an impact in the US. The most poignant issue in Myanmar is the role of Nobel prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of the country who has a face of suffering and innocence. So long a martyr to her human rights cause against the Burma military junta, she is a political goddess, especially in the eyes of the rest of the world. But her statements about the fate of the Rohingya have been worringly equivocal. If there is ethnic cleasing going on, she, of all people, must condemn it and stop it. But Trump has his face turned to Florida. For the moment, the hurricanes rule.

Will Hurricane Harvey make Trump see the light?

I wonder, after his personal viaits to Texas to see the devastation of Hurricane Harvey, whether Donald Trump will begin to get nagging doubts somewhere in the periphery of his brain. Could this terrible hurricane and now Hurricane Irma tearing through the Caribbean and due to hit Florida tomorrow, have anything to do with climate change - the big CC question? Trump says he doesn't believe in climate change caused by human beings. He tore up the historic Paris Treaty which most of the world signed up to, acknowledging the dangers posed by man-made climate changes. He wants to go back to heavy-duty coal-burning power stations. But once he returned to the White Houe after his two visis to Texas, did he say to himself or perhaps to his daughter Ivanka: "Yer know, darling, there might be something in this climate change rubbish after all." Or, of course, he might have said: "Yeah well, these things are all cyclical, aren't they? There ain't nothing we can do about it. We're in the Lord's hands." Or something along those lines. But then you throw in the worst earthquake in Mexico for 100 years and there will be more to come. Then will the doubts set in? Trump hasn't got Steve Bannon in earshot anymore to convince him climate change is fake news, although the two are still regularly on the phone apparently. So I reckon Trump might just start to think intelligently about whether this planet of ours is heading towards a grim weather future. My children believe climate change is happening and that's good enough for me, although I believe it too. It's the younger generation whose future we should be worrying about, not your age group, Mr President. So, go to Florida when Irma causes devastation and then have a long chat with Ivanka. After that, ignore Bannon and get real about climate change for all our sakes.

Let Kim eat grass

For once I agree with Vladimir Putin, although he was only half right when he said that Kim Jong-un would rather eat grass than give up his nuclear weapons programme and that new sanctions would be meaningless. But the point is that Kim is never going to have to eat grass. His poor suffering people who live outside Pyongyang in the rural areas probably eat grass already. But not for our Kim. The only grass he eats or is likely to eat is lemon grass to flavour his pasta dishes. Kim has grown in size in the near-six years since he succeeded as Supreme Leader and the reason is he eats very well. He has a yacht for goodness sake, where the fridges no doubt are stuffed with caviar or whatever his personal foodie taste may be. So, Mr Putin, your grass analogy was unfortunate athough I know what you were trying to say, and I agree. NOTHING will stop Kim from completing his nuclear programme and then carry on building more and more intercontinental ballistic missiles. In his six years at the top of the dynasty, Kim has test-fired more than 80 missiles and bombs, according to US intelligence estimates. This compares with only 20 carried out by his father, Kim Jong-il, during his 17-year rule. So the present Kim has been in a hurry to get on with his nuclear programme and is not interested in dialogue or deals. Once he is surrounded by all of his nuclear ballistic missiles, then he might turn to the world and say: "Ok, what will you give me if I promise not to launch a launch attack first?" Apparently, according to a former British ambassador in North Korea, Kim Jong-un is an affable sort of chap, who likes to be social, enjoys his family around him and can be quite pleasant when he is in the mood. Well, I expect Hitler was affable on occasions, and Stalin loved a good joke. But affability isn't going to help the rest of us right now. I can't imagine Kim being affable with Trump! No, Kim must be treated as a potentially hugely dangerous individual who has taken so many risks in his life already at the tender age of 33, that if he survives for another three or four decades, heaven knows what he will be like when he's 60 or 70. Mind you, if he does reach a venerable age, I guess that probably means the world will still be around!! But be warned, Kim, according to a story in today's papers, the US Navy Seal Team 6 - killers of Osama bin Laden - is currently training South Korean special forces to assassinate the North Korean leader if called upon to do so. Now will that make Kim shudder and hide in the wardrobe or will he just order his personal chef to send out for more lemon grass?

North Korea and the Cuban missile crisis

There is no direct comparison between the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 and the North Korea nuclear crisis of 2017. Yet there are some similarities and perhaps some reasons to hope for the best, based on what happened 55 years ago. Krushchev was prepared to go to the brink of nuclear Armageddon but just when the world thought this was it, a nuclear holocaust, the Soviet leader backed down. His ships carrying missiles and other equipment to Cuba sailed close to the US naval blockade off the island and then turned around. The crisis was over. But there had to be a deal first. In exchange for removing the missiles from the sites in Cuba, Krushchev was told the US would remove its nuclear ballistic missiles from Turkey. John F Kennedy won the "blink" contest but Krushchev did not go away empty-handed. What could Kim Jong-un get by way of a deal with Washington? The trouble is his ballistic missiles and their nuclear warheads are located on North Korean territory, so there is no comparison here with the Cuban situation. But could the US suggest that if Kim keeps all his current stock of missiles and nuclear warheads in storage and stops developing any more, then negotiations could begin to transform North Korea's economy, trade and standard of living for its desperately poor people. In other words, accept that North Korea is an effective nuclear power but in mothballs, not threatening anyone. It would go against everything Trump, and Obama before him, said about North Korea never being allowed to become a nuclear power, but the reality is, Pyongyang has built missiles that have a range of 6,500 miles with a capability to carry nuclear warheads. That puts western and central parts of America in the target area. But to be brutally frank, the whole of the United States is already in the line of fire of ballistic missiles held by Russia and China. So it's not a unique scenario. Of course, no one expects Russia or China to launch nuclear missiles at America. Not now anyway. And North Korea just might. So again the situation is different. But ultimately Washington and the rest of the world are going to have to come to terms with a nuclear North Korea, and find someway of coping with that. As I wrote in a blog yesterday, someone very senior from the US needs to take a delegation to Pyongyang, preferably with some high-ranking Chinese officials in tow, to deal with Kim direct.

Kim Jong-un stays one step ahead

Nothing, and I mean nothing, is going to stop Kim Jong-un from developing a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile. Trump said that would never be allowed to happen. But it IS going to happen. He's not far away now from reaching his dream of being able to hit the United States with a nuclear ballistic missile. This third dynasty Kim just carries on doing what he wants despite all the pressure from around the world. He bats off sanctions as if they were butterflies. Warnings of war from Trump he dismisses as Washington bluff. So, he has apparently successfully tested a massive hydrogen bomb and probably plans to carry out another test in due course. He has revealed to the world what his hydrogen bomb warhead looks like and it seems pretty genuine from the photos. So North Korea which joined the nuclear club after the first atomic test, now, after six tests, seems to have proven a capability to join the nuclear elite who can send nuclear warheads thousands of miles into space. It's a very very sobering thought. But condemnation by the UN will scare Kim not one tiny bit. I am so fed up hearing politicians saying that "everything is on the table" - Boris Johnson said it today - because it means very little. It's supposed to mean that if Kim doesn't stop what he's doing he will be bombed out of existence! But, really, Boris, are you planning to send British bombers to Pyongyang? I don't think so. The more Kim does to complete his nuclear missile programme, the more difficult it is to do anything military against him. Stop him now before he gets there, yes that is an option, but it will be an act of war that will have devastating consequences. So, the truth is, there is no military option. There can be no surgical strike which will end Kim's dreams and make us all sleep better at night. And Kim knows that. Unfortunately, the only realistic option is to go talk to this wretched man and ask him: "What the hell do you want?". And then try to convince him that the US is not planning to invade North Korea. People from the real world need to get to him and tell him the facts of life. But it may be too late. With Trump shouting at him and even Beijing no longer being so supportive, Kim might just think the best way forward is to keep on going until he is so dangerous that all the world will keep quiet and be submissive to his demands. But he doesn't want war, and he knows Trump doesn't want war, and he surely knows Boris doesn't want war. It's total stalemate.

Civilian deaths in Iraq and Syria

The issue of civilian deaths caused by US-led airstrikes in Syria and Iraq will be one of the defining judgments to be made once the war against Isis in these two countries is over. In war it's impossible to bomb from the air without causing some civilian casualties. The American-led coalition goes through an agonising process before authorising airstrikes. But there cannot be a fullproof system. Houses known to contain Isis snipers are legitimate targets. But can the experts planning the raids at the US base in Qatar be absolutely sure there are not women and children nearby. No they can't. So the latest figures povided by US Central Command for Operation Inherent Resolve in Syria and Iraq make uncomfortable reading. Since the air campaign began in August 2014, at least 685 civilians are believed to have been "unintentionally killed" in strikes involving aircraft and artillery. But the US military are still examining 455 other reports of civilian fatalities which may in due course be added to the death toll. The US admits to civilian casualties only when they have pretty good evidence that the coalition is to blame. There are always multiple claims of civilian deaths, but a huge percentage of them have been caused by Isis, either deliberately slaughtering families trying to escape. killing people who refuse to obey their edicts or by their mass use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and boobytraps. Sometimes it's difficult to be sure whether the coalition is to blame or Isis. For example, there was a tragic case in Mosul when the coalition targeted snipers in a building, but the bombs dropped caused a daisy-chain of detonations when Isis IEDs and ammunition stores blew up. About 100 civilians were killed. The coalition was to blame for dropping the bombs but Isis was also to blame for filling the houses with ammunition and explosives. The latest figures of admitted civilian deaths demonstrate the most unforgiveable aspect of warfare. But it is right they should be put into some sort of perspective. Since August 2014, the US-led coalition has carried out 24,160 strikes involving 51,038 separate engagements. The percentage of engagaments which resulted in civilian casualties was 2.29 per cent, according to Central Command. That is tragic but low. But the toll of civilian deaths and injuries breeds hatred and fear and more militancy. This is unavoidable. And the truth is that despite the careful assessments by the coalition, daily airstrikes over a period of three years do more than risk civilian deaths. They create a generation of war children whose lives are for ever destroyed by horrific memories and experiences. Isis is totally to blame for attemptng to force their hateful ideology on the people of Iraq and Syria. But to eliminate them, the US-led coalition has had to add to the daily traumas suffered by hundreds of thousands of men, women and children.