Time for joyous but restrained celebrations

As another pretty awful year comes to an end a lot of people will be giving the impression that the worst is over and that it's time to celebrate like the good old days. Here in the UK there will be pictures in all the newspapers tomorrow of wild carousing in the pubs and streets despite the attempts by Boris Johnson and others to caution people to celebrate the New Year with caution and common sense. I hope they do but I can't see it happening, not in England anyway where all pubs and night clubs and wine bars will be open for carousing business. There will, I am sure, be a large degree of madness and alcoholic excesses. If it's followed by a massive spread of the Omicron variant both the New Year drinking victims and Boris Johnson will live to regret the decision not to impose any new restrictions. If Omicron doesn't venture hungrily into every bar and night club then it will be the first sign that perhaps this virus has exhausted itself. I pray both for those planning a celebratory night out tonight and for all of us that this will be the case and that we can look forward to 2022 as the year when this pandemic leaves these shores.

Billionaires and their superyachts and the rest of us

Twas always thus I suppose, the filthy rich enjoying a totally different sort of world and the rest of the planet's human beings surviving life as best they can. During the two years of the covid pandemic, however, this incredible difference in lifestyles seems to have become even more apparent, grossly apparent I would say. There's a story in the Daily Mail about a congregation (if that's the right word) of billionaire superyachts currently moored in St Barts, the French-speaking Caribbean island. All the billionaires worth their salt are there. Perhaps they only feel comfortable in other billionaires' company. Some of the yachts are so huge they can't come anywhere near the harbour moorings but have to settle in the waters well beyond the white sands. I guess it's possible the owners never actually leave their superyacht homes, but just recline in the sunshine and have lobster fed to them without having to step foot on the island. This is not remotely about envy, it's just an expression of amazement that in this super-troubled world with the pandemic still raging, global warming now here to stay, and poverty and malnutrition reaching desperate levels in countries such as Yemen and Afghanistan, there are super rich people with ther superyachts having a super time without having to worry about any of this. Great for the St Barts economy no doubt but that's the only positive thing I can think of.

The phoney UK leadership contest

My prediction for 2022: Boris Johnson will still be prime minister by the time the year comes to an end in 12 months and two days. All this nonsense about his leading rivals for Number 10 Downing Street lining up and making moves is just that: nonsense. The two ahead in this phoney game are Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary, and Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Liz Truss is said to be leading the field because of some obscure insider Conservative survey which showed more Tory MPs like Liz than they do Dishy Rishi. But this is all Whitehall bubble drivel to stir up poor old Boris and make him feel he is about to be ousted. If it was August it would be dismissed as a silly season story, but it's appearing most days in bold headlines and even the US press has cottoned on to the story and has joined the rumour foray. I suspect Truss is delighted and Sunak is embarrassed. I don't know Truss but have followed her career and she IS Foreign Secretary so presumably Boris thinks she has something going for her. But the other day she gave a speech about the UK building a "network of liberty" around the world. Did she write that or did some flunkey with nothing else to do come up with that dreadful phrase? It's the sort of phrase which means pretty much nothing. UK diplomats are supposed to spread abroad the values of freedom and democracy as part of their job. So what's with the Truss liberty doctrine? It's a phrase which people with ambitions to be leader of his or her party and the country produce out of a hat to sound grand. It fell flat. Just on appearances alone and ministerial achievement I would have thought Rishi Sunak would make a better prime minister. But, sorry, Rishi and Liz, Boris ain't going nowhere and if you are not careful you'll be going nowhere as well.

England facing an invasion of New Year visitors from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

Such is the disharmony over Covid restrictions between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, it's highly likely there is going to be a rush of night clubbers and drinkers to English bars and restaurants from the other three components of the United Kingdom on New Year's Eve. With heavy restrictions announced for every state bar England for the New Year period, England suddenly looks the place to be. Boris Johnson is the only leader in the UK to look at the same infections data and make the decision to go ahead with New Year's Eve celebrations as if there was nothing to worry about. The other three including the lugubrious Mark Drakeford, First Minister of Wales, have all taken the over-cautioous otion and gone for restrictions on New Year's Eve carousing. Boris, already castigated by about 100 of his own Tory MPs for previous Covid restrictions, decided to go the safe political path by imposing no new restrictions but getting one of his ministers to put out the message that New Year's Eve revellers should celebrate cautiously. It's a bit like the adverts for gambling that are doing the rounds which always end with the delightful entreaty to "gamble responsibly". So revellers in England please drink/dance/cavort kiss/cuddle/fall over with as much responsibility as you can muster. The Scots and Welsh will be heading across their borders to enjoy the delights of English night clubs and bars and no doubt the Irish will be on their way too. This might just be one in the eye for Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's First Minister, and her plans to go for a vote once again on Scottish independence. Scottish voters might just say: "Sorry, Nicola, you closed our night clubs, we want to stick with the English thank you."

For Putin, it's decision time

Vladimir Putin who seems to be in his element these days, throwing the gauntlet down to the US, playing the energy game with Germany and the rest of Europe and plotting to emasculate the Nato alliance. I think he's enjoying himself. In his latest foray against the western world he has hinted that if Nato fails or refuses to agree to the demands he has made about troops and armour being pulled back from Russia's borders in eastern Europe he will consult his generals and come up with some military responses, presumbaly in addition to invading Ukraine. As a former lieutenant-colonel in the KGB Putin knows all about threats and lies and deception and guile. All these attributes come naturally to him and he is using all of them to scare the US and the rest of Nato. Over the weekend the Russian news agency Interfax put out a report saying that 10,000 Russian troops had been withdrawn from the Ukraine border and it was picked up by Reuters. But we've seen this sort of ploy in the past. Far from it being the first sign of Putin backing down and reducing the size of the putative invasion force it was actually nothing of the sort. It was far more likely that one of his combat units was just being rotated or, even more likely, it wasn't true at all and was just a story put out by the Kremlin to cause confusion. Putin is not in a mood to back down. He wants Nato to back down. I think we will see a lot of this sort of game-playing over the next few weeks and the West better watch out. For Putin it's decision time. He wants Ukraine under his wing one way or the other and we probably have less than a month before he acts. Biden and co will have to keep their eye on the ball like never before.

Taliban latest blow to women

The Taliban are marching backwards, as we all thought they would. Now women have been told they can't go anywhere further than 45 miles on their own. Anything beyond that they have to be accompanied by a male member of their family and of course be all hajibbed up. If I was an Afghan woman I would be screaming by now. The Taliban spokesman (joke) months ago said all would be different under the new 2021 regime, compared to that ghastly one in the 1990s when women were totally non-human beings. He said they would have rights and be treated with respect. Well that was all wallpaper to try and pretend that the Taliban would be freedom-loving males hoping that the international community would rush to their financial aid. But we all knew they were lying. And heyho here we are back to the old Taliban mysogenist ways. It's a dilemma for the international community. Afghanistan is in desperate need of help but unfreezing all their assets abroad and donating billions would be seen as rewarding the Taliban and while they are so anti-women and anti anything that smells of human rights and democracy, they don't deserve help of any kind. Some way must be found to help the Afghan people whose sense of hospitality and warmth to strangers is second to none in the world and still punish the Taliban regime. Meanwhile all those Afghan women who learned for the first time the joys of being as free as men in their communities are now being pushed further and further back into the shadows.

Trump and Biden are new mates

I loved the reaction by Donald Trump when he heard Joe Biden had praised his administration for what it did to create, develop and deliver vaccines to fight Covid-19. No one has thanked Trump for anything and for his successor to express his admiration for the Trump years appeared to gobsmack him. He even said it would be difficult for him to criticise Biden in future. So, a very smart move by Biden, although by the way it seems to me perfectly right and proper to acknowledge the work done by the Trump administration to find and distribute vaccines, even though the former president himself was initially very sceptical about the whole pandemic thing. All that nonsense, too, about swallowing disinfectant to get rid of the virus. Oh my God. That was outrageously irresponsible. But the fact is the Trump lot broke incredible ground and provided for the American people a whole series of vaccines which have saved hundreds of thousands of lives. Trump was amazed and astonished and delighted to hear Biden giving him praise. It was a special moment in his interview on Fox. So Trump and Biden are now mates, well sort of mates. So it will make the 2024 election a whole lot of fun if and when Biden and Trump go neck-and-neck for the presidency in 2024. Trump won't be able to resist it and Biden has declared that he will go for a second term provided his health holds up. It will be the Trump/Biden show all over again.

Who is the most irresponsible politician in the US right now?

Someone who once stood as vice presidential candidate for the United States and therefore should have learnt that wild words are not necessarily the best way to perform your duties as a former public servant has come out and as good as stated that Americans should not even consider getting vaccinated against Covid-19. This former high-up politician is none other than Sarah Palin, ex-governor of Alaska. She has actually said that she would get vaccinated against this dangerous, fast-moving virus "over my dead body". Daily infections of the virus, mostly the Omicron variant, have shot up to more than 100,000 a day in the US. Yet still she wants everyone to know that she is against any form of vaccination. The extraordinary thing is that she contracted coronavirus in March and yet she still thinks American citizens should do their duty and not be contaminated by the vaccine. Not the virus, the vaccine. Words fail me. How irresponsible is that? The tragedy is that many people doubtful about the effectiveness of the vaccine will hear her words and finally make up their minds not to get jabbed. President Joe Biden has a tough challenge to persuade Americans to come forward and be jabbed and boosted if people like Ms Palin declare their opposition to the vaccine. Omicron is already making its way across America, like it is across Europe. But Ms Palin presumably doesn't believe that the vaccines work. Someone should tell her that the majority of those in the UK, and probably in the US, who are even now being hospitalised with Covid are the very ones who have failed or refused to get jabbed. Even for Ms Palin that fact should tell her something. Poor Senator John McCain must be turning over in his grave. To think that he chose her as his Republican running-mate in the presidential race in 2008.

US falls behind in the hypersonic race

In a dash to catch up with China and Russia, the Pentagon’s hypersonic missile programme is being bedevilled by false starts and failed tests. ith America’s potential adversaries moving at a rapid pace to develop and deploy weapons capable of reaching targets at more than five times the speed of sound, the US has now suffered three setbacks in a row. The test of one of the most advanced systems, the US Air Force’s air-launched rapid response weapon (ARRW), had to be aborted after a technical fault prevented the prototype missile from being launched from a B-52H Stratofortress bomber. There had been two previous failed tests in July and April. In the inaugural flight of the ARRW on April 5 over a range off the coast of southern California, the missile also failed to leave the aircraft. In the July test, the prototype was successfully launched from a B-52H but the rocket engine failed to ignite properly. The air force says valuable lessons were learnt from all three tests but the failures are being seen as a serious disappointment at a time when the Pentagon is anxious to demonstrate to China and Russia and other potential adversaries such as North Korea that America’s hypersonic weapons programme is on track and approaching operational status. The latest failure of the ARRW system followed public criticism of the Pentagon’s hypersonic achievements by Frank Kendall, secretary of the air force. The service’s most senior civilian official said he was dissatisfied with the pace of the programme. The sense of urgency about developing weapons capable of hitting targets in minutes has been heightened by the apparent success by both China and Russia in testing hypersonic missiles that can carry both nuclear and conventional warheads. President Putin declared last month that Russia’s Zircon hypersonic cruise missile, to be launched from a submarine, would be ready for delivery to the navy next year, following a claimed successful test launch in October. There has been speculation in the Russian media that the first Zircon might even be introduced into service this week. Russia has also developed a hypersonic glide vehicle called Avangard which Moscow claims can accelerate to Mach 27 – more than 20,000mph. Glide vehicles are launched from a ballistic missile on the edge of space and then manoeuvre through the earth’s atmosphere. China shocked the Pentagon in August when it carried out a test of a rocket-launched glide vehicle that circled the globe in low orbit before descending at hypersonic speed , missing a land-based target by about 20 miles. Had the vehicle been carrying a nuclear warhead, a “miss” on that limited scale would be irrelevant. The Pentagon has multiple hypersonic programmes underway, costing about $15 billion between 2015 and 2024. More than 50 per cent of the investment is being spent on boost-glide technology. The US is only developing non-nuclear systems.

The second ruined Christmas coming up

No matter what government leaders decide in the next few days, Christmas for the second year running looks like being ruined wherever you are living in the world. The Omicron variant of Covid-19 is so rapidly transmissable that even if you take every precaution it seems it can still get you. Lockdowns are already occurring in Europe and the UK won't be far behind. Whether it's before or just after Christmas seems a moot point. But the big family plans for the Big Day on December 25th are falling apart. Half measures are not going to work. Somehow the momentum of Omicron has to be reduced or blocked. Whoever thought this time last year that 2021 was going to be as bad as 2020 and probably that 2022 will be as bad as 2021? It's the grimest of times for the whole world. I just hope that there are no political leaders even now plotting to do something outrageously aggressive while the rest of us are locked away in Covid misery. Please take note President Putin and President Xi Zinping and anyone else with expansionist ambitions!

Boris versus the scientists

It's deja vu all over again. A year ago Boris was fighting the scientists and medical experts to try and prevent a lockdown and then was forced to give way. Now he is determined to save everyone's Christmas but all his advisers, including it seems his health secretary Sajid David are warning that unless further tight restrictions are ordered before December 25 there is going to be a pandemic disaster. Boris's political instincts are telling him to hold on until after Christmas but the signs are ominous that he will once again have to give in and announce some sort of lockdown. Wales has already ordered all restaurants to close. Boris is under pressure to do likewise and order restrictions on numbers for Christmas. But he's going to hold fast until the last possible moment, maybe wait until the first week in January but by then there could be such a huge number of Omicron-infected people that it will be too late. Boris will be blamed and it could be fatal for his political career. You have to feel sorry for the poor man, he has had a terrible last few weeks and, as ever with the Conservative party, his fellow Tories forget all about loyalty and start plotting his demise. If he gets the Omicron decision wrong that could be the final straw for the Boris premiership. Happy Christmas, Boris.

MREs stands for Microbes-Ready-To-Eat.

For nearly four decades the US military on overseas combat missions in far-flung locations have survived on Meals-Ready-to-Eat (MREs) ration packs. Soldiers and Marines in the field tend to describe MREs as Meals Rarely Edible and Meals Rejected by Everyone. Now the Pentagon’s research and development agency, Darpa, has come up with a new concept for future wars , Microbes Ready to Eat – still MREs but without all the packaging and cost of delivery, and created on site. The new-style MREs would be produced by converting oxygen, carbon dioxide, water and electricity into microbes that would then create food molecules, to include proteins, fats, carbohydrates and “dietary fibre”. Although it sounds like a feast of unpalatable ingredients, Darpa is promising that the food molecules will have various different flavours and textures added to make the Microbes Ready to Eat tasty, even delicious. Under a programme codenamed Cornucopia, Darpa has asked companies and research organisations to come up with ideas to enable food production on demand and on site in order to cut costs of food transportation. “Cornucopia seeks to produce from air, water and electricity a range of microbial-origin nutritious foodstuffs that taste good and offer complete nutrition for military applications ranging from troops in austere locations to civilians and troops during humanitarian-assistance and disaster-relief operations,” Molly Jahn, programme manager in Darpa’s defence sciences office, said. She admitted it was a “bold leap” but recent advances including in microbiology and genetic sequencing had made the concept realistic. Eating microbes is nothing new. Darpa said humans eat trillions of microbes every day. For thousands of years mankind has used yeasts, moulds and bacteria to make food products such as bread, yoghurt and cheese. Several companies have recently begun developing food made by microbes to try and reduce reliance on the land for food production and to cut greenhouse gas emissions arising from livestock farming. However, the Pentagon’s requirement for reliable meal supplies for troops overseas is so huge that Darpa wants to devise a transportable food-creation system that will meet the needs of potentially tens of thousands of servicemen and women. Darpa said military deployments around the world involved lengthy, costly and complex logistics, including tons of food to sustain troops over weeks and months. Developing food production on site, Darpa said, would reduce the logistical burden and guarantee meals for troops for an indefinite period of time “provided there is sufficient water and energy”. Current-day MREs which come in thick pouches are made for US military personnel who are serving on operations too far from field kitchens where troops can enjoy a full range of cooked food in air-conditioned tented dining halls. They have also been sent in huge quantities to victims of humanitarian disasters to help sustain them with instant food. During Operation Desert Storm in 1991 when a US-commanded coalition force defeated Saddam Hussein’s troops who had seized control of Kuwait, American soldiers and Marines had to eat cold MREs for up to 60 days. After many complaints, the Pentagon produced special food ration heaters to make sure the troops could eat hot MREs. While the food variations developed significantly over the years, to include pepperoni pizza, boneless pork chops with noodles and burgers, American troops in war zones often tried to swap their MREs for the British equivalents which they decided were more edible.

Pallet-borne cruise missile drops from the back of a Hercules to hit target

The US air force has for the first time carried out a successful hit on a target with a live cruise missile dropped from the back of a Hercules transport aircraft. The cruise missile left the MC-130J special operations Hercules on a pallet attached to a parachute before being released and nose-diving towards a target vessel in the Gulf of Mexico. Officially known as a palletised munition, codenamed Rapid Dragon, the cruise missile “deployed its wings and tail, achieved aerodynamic control, ignited its engine...and proceeded towards its newly assigned target”. “The cruise missile successfully destroyed its target upon impact”, the air force said in a statement. The use of a transport aircraft to act as a second-string bomber has become a key part of the Pentagon’s war-planning. Turning cargo planes into makeshift “aerial bomb trucks” would add innovative firepower at relatively low cost, compared with the deployment of stealth fighter aircraft and strategic bombers. The original concept was dramatically demonstrated in April, 2017, when a 30ft long Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb (MOAB), nicknamed “the mother-of-all bombs”, weighing more than ten tons, was pushed out of a C-130 in Afghanistan. It destroyed an Isis complex of tunnels, caves and a camp where militant fighters had gathered. Since then the concept has developed into a more sophisticated programme with the focus on launching cruise missiles from C-130 and C-17 transport aircraft. The Gulf of Mexico test involved a flight crew from the US Air Force Special Operations Command. The missile with a live warhead was not identified. The idea of a roll-on roll-off palletised air-launched weapon system was aimed at increasing significantly the air force’s ability to deploy stand-off missiles during a major-power conflict, although in a war against adversaries such as Russia or China, transport aircraft needed for ferrying troops and supplies would be much in demand. The Rapid Dragon programme began two years ago. Another test with a palletised live cruise missile, this time involving a C-17 Globemaster aircraft, is expected next spring.

Covid stupidity comes in many shapes and forms

I don't want to be overly rude and dismissive but how is it possibe in this era of non-stop Covid pandemic when everyone in the universe is trying to stay safe and alive and preferably in a job that several thousand members of the US military have refused to be vaccinated and are now to be fired or blocked from ever getting promotion? Are their reasons so crucial to their life and beliefs that they are happy to lose their jobs and, more importantly, happy to risk their health and the health of those closest to them? Some have claimed exemption on the grounds of their religious beliefs. But what religion says, Thou shalt not ever be vaccinated even when your life is at risk? But the majority appear to have refused to be vaccinated because they don't think the vaccination is genuine and might harm them. I would have thought that being a soldier or Marine or airman or sailor you do what is best not just for yourself but for your comrades-in-arms and for your unit. And if you still need persuading then your commanding officer should slightly raise his voice and say, Perkins, get vaccinated, that's an order. Roughly two to five per cent of the US military have refused to be jabbed, depending on the service. For example, nearly 4,000 active-duty soldiers have refused and are now facing the sack. More than 100 Marines have already been booted out. The air force has kicked out 27, and in the US navy nearly 6,000 active-duty sailors remain unvaccinated. And this is all while the Omicron variant is tearing through communities like one of those terrifying tornadoes that hit the US last week. It is actually beyond belief!

Putin playing the long game

Will Russia invade Ukraine or is it all a massive bluff to force Joe Biden to make concessions, ie to get Biden to agree to drop the offer of Nato membership to Ukraine which was first mentioned 13 years ago as a future possibility. Since then Ukraine has become more Washington-orientated than Moscow-partnered. Putin cannot endure the thought that Ukraine, once a mighty part of the Soviet empire, could sign up to both Nato and the EU. So the mass deployment of troops and armour and artillery on the border with Ukraine is Putin's way of saying, "if you don't back off from the Ukraine/Nato membership thing, then I'm going to seize the country and prevent Kyiv from ever going western". It's trucky for Biden because he wants to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine yet at the same time he doesn't want to give in to Putin's blackmail. The very young-looking prime minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas (44), has said in an interview that she doesn't think Putin has any right to dictate what Ukraine should or shouldn't do and if the Kyiv government wants to join Nato and the EU then they should be allowed to do so. She's right but unfortunately the wider global political picture is more complex than that. Putin is playing the long game with his threats and blackmail and will probably keep his army ranged against the Ukrainians until he gets something from Biden which will satisfy his demands that Ukraine remains under Moscow's wing. I fear a fudge coming. Biden will offer something to keep Putin happy and then claim US diplomacy saved Ukraine from invasion. But fudges are generally indistinguishable from back-down concessions and it's likely Putin will come out the winner of this diplomatic brinkmanship, without firing a shot.

Senator Joe is worried, so President Joe's big legislation falters

You would have thought that sharing first names and the same political party, Senator Joe Manchin, Democrat of West Virginia, and President Joe Biden would be able to reach an agreement about almost anything. But Senator Joe is out on a limb and professes to be worried about Biden's $2.2 trillion social welfare and climate-change Build Back Better legislative programme because inflation is already rising fast and he thinks it could take off if the Biden project goes through. It's sort of fair enough but the negotiations to get this legislation through Congress has been going on long enough. Everyone in Congress and in the White House is keeping fingers crossed that the massive law will be approved before Christmas. But the omens aren't looking good. It seems incredible to me that such an important piece of legislation that will reshape America's economy and set the example for all other nations in terms of climate-change endeavours is struggling to win the right amount of votes. What exactly does Manchin want to change? Why is he the one to make life so difficult for Biden when he knows that the Republicans are quietly cheering him on. Votes are so tight in Congress it only takes the odd recalcitrant Democrat to screw up the whole process. Poor Biden. He must be desperate to end the year with something solid under his belt. He has got his infrastructure deal through but this is the big one. Build Back Better or Build Back Better But Not Yet.

If Trump wins power in 2024 will it be an end to democracy in the US?

Hillary Clinton has spoken. She believes that if Trump were to go for the presidency again in 2024 and win, it would effectively mean the dowfall and end of democracy as we know it in the United States. I believe she may be right. The reason is that this time round Trump would feel even more justified to do what he wanted. He would argue to himself that the voters really wanted him to win in 2020 and because of the fake and false result, giving the White House to Joe Biden, a 2024 victory for him would be a manifestation of the nation calling upon their rightful leader to take charge and make America Awesme Again or some such label. Trump would feel free to pronounce the most Trumpian policies, build walls all over the place, invite Putin to Washington and send half a dozen aircraft carriers to the Indo-Pacific. It wouldn't mean the US would become a total dictatorship because the good old US Constitution and its founding fathers are there to protect all Americans. But I think I know what Hillary has in mind. There would be dangers because we saw many of them emerge alarmingly when Trump was president the first time round. A second term would give him, he would reckon, carte blanche to convert the nation into a Trump Republic. It's still a long way to go and surely there must be enough sensible, democracy-loving senior Republicans left to make sure that their candidate in 2024 will be a noble, honourable man or woman who, if Biden were to fail, would hold the torch of democracy and be a respected and respectable president.

Boris's latest baby birth hasn't done it this time

It looks like Boris Johnson is finally running out of steam. Political steam. Normally the birth of yet another Boris baby would knock away all the bad stuf from the front pages and give him a breather while photographers gather round to take pictures of a smiling prime minister. But the birth of his seventh child came and went and got buried as more and more bad publicity hit the headlines, perhaps the worst one for Boris being the latest poll figures which show Keir Starmer, Opposition Labour leader, is miles ahead of the PM. The furthest ahead for Labour since 2014. This is seriously bad news for a man who loves being the most popular politician in town. Boris's fall from grace is all about Christmas parties and quizzes and having jolly fun in Christmas 2020 when everyone else in the country was hibernating to keep safe from Covid. Lockdown for Boris was it seems a very different matter than it was for the rest of us. That sticks in everyone's gullet because it looks as if Boris thinks to himself, "I'll do what I want because I'm prime minister but I'm going to make jolly sure the good British people do as they are told and stay at home in misery". I thought it would all blow over but there's a helluva momentum going on and I think Boris for once is in real trouble. Could there even be a putsch against him from within the Conservative Party? No I don't think it will go that far. But unless he gets some miracle good news, like for example the disappearance of the Omicron variant of Covid, 2022 is going to be an increasingly bad year for Boris.

Worst case scenarios are very very seldom accurate

Political leaders have to make judgements very often based on three likely outcomes of a particular crisis, whatever the crisis is, war, pandemics, terrorism etc: mildest, hoped-for outcome, middle-of-the-range maybe-possible outcome, and worst case scenario. It's the last one that seems to be driving the UK government and other governments with the Covid-19 pandemic because none of them want to be caught out. Foreign leaders who initially said the virus was nothing to worry about like Donald Trump and the Brazilian president were proven totally wrong, dangerously so. Boris Johnson spent most of his time in the early days in two minds and tried his best to avoid a lockdown before announcing a lockdown, and then another one. They seemed extreme at the time but possibly necessary, and huge huge sums were forked out to keep the country's economy from collapsing. Now we have omicron and Boris is going mad, desperate not to make the same mistakes he made before. So instead of downplaying the new variant he is up-playing it, and the scientists who seem to love playing the armageddon card have been warning of the direst of consequences with millions of new infections and hospitals being overwhelmed with dying patients and huge numbers of deaths every week. We're back to the bad old days when that fellow from Imperial College predicted there could be hundreds of thousands of deaths. He was wrong. Now that sort of language is being used again. Hopefully the new worst case scenarios will also be wrong. Even wildly wrong. But in the meantime Boris and co are warning every day of more and more restrictions to come. The big question is: who the hell are we supposed to believe? Worst case scenarios are what they say they are on the label. During the Cold War the worst of the worst case scenarios was that the world would be obliterated by nuclear war. It never happened. I am just saying....

Biden and Putin brinkmanship

The United States and Russia are now engaged in a dangerous game of diplomatic brinkmanship over Ukraine with the future of long-term relations between Washington and Moscow at stake. In anticipation of an invasion by Russian troops, the prospect of a medium-scale Nato reinforcement of allies in eastern Europe to deter further military expansionist ambitions is looking unavoidable. President Biden and President Putin may have had their brief moments of laughter and courteous welcome when they spoke on the phone on Tuesday. But the threat of an invasion of Ukraine and the disastrous consequences that could follow a Russian military attack have presented the leader of the western world with his toughest foreign policy challenge. The worst scenario he faces is war between Russia and Nato, something inconceivable in the last three decades of post-Cold War Europe. Biden has to choose the right balance between deterrence and what would be viewed by Putin as provocation. Sending US troops and firepower to Ukraine now to preempt a possible Russian invasion in January or early February would unquestionably be seen as highly provocative by Moscow, and could lead to unpredictable consequences. Biden has already publicly ruled it out. Putin had probably calculated that was not a realistic US option but the American president’s confirmation of his decision will have comforted his Russian counterpart. All the Pentagon has done is ship small arms and ammunition to Ukraine this week, the last part of a $60 million security package which was announced in August. Had Biden retained the preemptive option, he would have faced opposition from Congress and also from the American public for a high-risk venture in a country which is not a member of the Nato alliance. The withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan less than four months ago after a war that failed to produce the desired result remains in everyone’s minds. “Some people might argue for sending forces to Ukraine but the country is very difficult to defend because it’s so large and exposed. In the east facing Russia there are no natural defences and the Russians have the advantage of concentration and they can move their forces more quickly,” said Mark Cancian, a retired colonel in the US Marine Corps who also worked at the Pentagon on defence force structure issues. He is now a senior adviser at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies. “This is not the Soviet Union with an army of unskilled soldiers. They now look a lot like us, mostly volunteers, well trained and with excellent equipment. They would be a tough opponent, so if the US sent token forces to Ukraine that would be very risky and could lead to casualties,” he said. The focus is therefore on post-invasion planning. That in itself, it is hoped, will be a deterrent to Putin who in his video call with Biden underlined his longstanding anger about the positioning of Nato troops so close to Russia’s borders in Poland and the Baltics. Currently Nato has four multinational battlegroups, totalling around 4,500 troops, in Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. They are there at the request of the host nations and Russian arms control inspectors have the right to monitor training exercises. What if, however, Biden and other Nato leaders decided to punish Putin, post-invasion, by deploying full armoured brigades, each with up to 5,000 troops, to these countries? Would that be a deterrent to any further expansionist ambitions in the Kremlin or increase tensions to a dangerous level? “Similar reinforcements occurred at several points during the Cold War, especially during the crisis over Berlin [1960-1962], and seemed to have a good effect,” said Andrew Krepinevich, a former Pentagon official and retired senior US army officer. The US and Nato deployed several brigades in the city which was inside communist East Germany and surrounded by Warsaw Pact forces. The Soviets could have captured Berlin but not without killing thousands of western troops, and that proved a sufficient deterrent. Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, said this week that the US was ready to reinforce Nato allies on the eastern flank, including Romania. After Russia’s annexing of Crimea in 2014, US paratroopers from 173rd Airborne Brigade were flown into Poland and the Baltics, and US Air Force F-16s mounted combat patrols over the region. Since then, while the US and Nato have retained a constant military presence in these countries to reassure them of the alliance’s commitment to their defence, overall the American troop and firepower footprint in Europe had been increasingly winding down. In 1989, there were 5,000 US army tanks in Germany. Seven years ago, there was not a single American tank left in Europe. However, the troop and tank withdrawals were reversed as a result of a reassessment of Russia’s belligerent approach towards the western alliance post-Crimea. From 2017 the US began sending a rotational heavy armoured brigade with M1A1 Abrams tanks to the European theatre. Nato also has a quick-reaction spearhead force of 5,000 troops with supporting special operations, maritime and air units which is supposed to be ready for action within 48 hours’ notice. So there are now more options for Nato military commanders to boost defences in eastern Europe. It will be something Putin will have to take into account as he ponders whether to send 175,000 troops into Ukraine. Cancian who served in the Gulf War in 1991 and in the Iraq war from 2003, is not convinced Putin will give the go ahead. “I find it hard to believe that Putin will invade Ukraine. It’s a big step. He already has the eastern tip of Ukraine and I doubt he would want to pay the economic and diplomatic price for seizing a bit more territory,” he said. However, he warned: “It has been his custom to do these mobilisation exercises. It’s a way of keeping the pot stirring and it’s good to get everyone accustomed to seeing Russia [rehearsing] an invasion and then pulling back until one day he will actually do it.” “This is on a grander scale than previous mobilisations but if I was to bet on it I would say this is just another scare and threat and he will then deescalate,” he said. “The Ukrainian army is also better now. They have been fighting for seven years and they have had training from the US and Nato, and they are getting good equipment, although compared to the Russians they would be outclassed,” he said. However, most of Ukraine’s military infrastructure is in the western part of the country. So even a rapid advance by Russian tank formations would not initially have a significant impact if Putin’s aim is to overwhelm the whole country. It would not be a swift victory. Certainly not a repeat of the unopposed annexing of Crimea in 2014.

Fighter pilots blinded by high-tech green glow helmets

The US Air Force is to make urgent adjustments to the super high-tech helmet worn by pilots flying America’s most advanced stealth fighter after incidents in which a “green glow” obscured their vision during night time missions. The action followed the experience of one pilot of an F-35A Lightning II who was blinded by the green glow in the helmet while he was trying to refuel in midair on January 6 over Alaska. The glow effect in the $400,000 helmet came from the night-vision video feed of the surrounding environment which is built into the headgear instead of on a screen in the cockpit. In the dark, the green glow has been causing disorientation for all pilots of the different versions of the F-35 flown by the US air force, navy and marines. An investigation by the US air force into the January incident reported that the F-35A pilot became confused while he was trying to lock into the KC-135 fuel tanker and later failed to see where his wingman was positioned behind him, according to Aviation Week. “Green glow from the helmet, combined with low tanker lighting and hazy clouds, obscured the view of the other F-35A attempting to refuel and the tanker itself,” the investigation reported. “The illumination from the helmet was so bright that the pilot needed to tilt his head and look below the display to try and see his environment,” the report said. The pilot felt back to normal after about 30 seconds. But he remained on auto-pilot for several minutes as he banked away. The green glow incident was similar to the experience of navy and Marine Corps pilots trying to land on an aircraft carrier at night. The green glow from the helmet’s video stream obscured the ship’s flight deck. Many pilots have reported feelings of “spatial disorientation”. The air force investigators urged adjustments to the helmet including dimming the green lighting. The navy and Marine Corps have gone a step further by ordering an updating of the helmet. A new version is expected in 2023.

Christmas party games with a sad ending

The press here in UK has been full of the story about whether Number 10 Downing Street held a Christmas party last year in contravention of the government's own Covid lockdown rules in force at the time. In other words, no parties, no gatherings of any kind, social distancing etc etc. Whie the rest of the country was playing by the rules - mostly - and staying at home over Christmas without loved ones, officials at Number 10 were making whoopee, drinking mulled wine, eating mince pies, and having a jolly get-together. Scandal, if true. We still don't know for sure whether it actually happened, whether Boris had approved it or whether it's all about nothing much more than a few hasty drinks behind the office cabinets. Boris says he he has been told there was no party and he has stuck to that belief but has asked the cabinet secretary to investigate. But now comes the sad part. Allegra Stratton, then Boris's press spokeswoman and a really nice person, took part in a videoed mock press briefing in which a colleague acting as a journalist asked her a question about the rumours of a Christmas party at Downing Street and she giggled and said she had gone home by then and seemed to treat the question as a laugh. A bit unfortunate but it was only an inside mock-up event which clearly didn't go as planned, professionally, because she smiled a lot and treated the question very lightly.But of couse some nasty person then leaked the video to ITN and it's all over the front pages of every newspaper, and now Allegra Stratton has had to resign. She was in tears when she made a statement. As I said she is a nice lady, an experienced journalist, normally very professional and was terrific as political editor on BBC 2 Newsnight and then national editor with ITN before joining Downing Street. Now her new career is over because of a silly response during what was supposed to be a private event. I feel very sorry for her and hope the person who leaked the video feels guilty as hell for ruining her life.

Putin adds more troops as he waits for Biden's call

On the eve of the phone call between President Biden and President Putin, the Pentagon revealed that the Russian military was continuing to add more and more firepower on the border with Ukraine. The US defence department which has long had contingency plans in the event of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, is still hoping for diplomacy to work so that the current build-up of tension “doesn’t result in any sort of open or armed conflict”, John Kirby, Pentagon press secretary, said at a briefing. “[But] what we ...see is added capability that President Putin continues to add, added military capability in the western part of his country and around Ukraine,” Kirby said. One key component of the intelligence picture being drawn and redrawn each day at the Pentagon and at US European Command in Stuttgart, Germany, may be coming from an estimated dozen or so American military advisers in Ukraine. They were first sent on a rotational basis during the Obama administration and stayed during the Trump administration. “I don’t have specific numbers of advisers that may or may not be on the ground,” Kirby said. However, he confirmed there had been a longstanding rotational arrangement to make sure Ukraine could “continue to defend itself”. The Pentagon has recently provided Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles and two refitted former US Coast Guard patrol boats to boost the Ukrainian navy, part of a package of military assistance worth more than $2.5 billion since 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and Russian-backed local proxy forces seized part of eastern Ukraine. The defence department is also considering providing the Ukrainian military with Soviet-made Mi-17 Hip helicopters which previously belonged to the Afghan air force. One version can be used as a gunship. The Afghans had a fleet of Mi-17s some of which were withdrawn by the US during the evacuation from Bagram airbase in Afghanistan. But many of the helicopters were captured by the Taliban.

Putin ponders invasion

Two aspects of the Russian troop build-up along the Ukrainian border have raised specific alarm in Washington and in Nato capitals about President Putin’s suspected plans for an invasion. These are the extensive deployment on the border of Russia’s combat-ready battalion tactical groups - Moscow’s “shock troops”- and the recent arrival of all the back-up needed for a medium-term military intervention, including medical field hospital units, long fuel-supply lines and other logistical support. While the total number of troops varies from 94,000 claimed by the Kyiv government to 70,000 estimated by the Pentagon, the Kremlin has the capacity rapidly to increase that to 175,000, a figure predicted by US intelligence. This assessment is partly based on Russia’s conventional military warfare doctrine which is heavily focused on the deployment and use of battalion tactical groups (BTGs), designed to be ready for intervention in an emergency at 60-minutes’ notice. Each BTG is a self-contained group consisting of 800-900 combat soldiers plus tanks, artillery, anti-tank missiles, reconnaissance, engineers and rear-support platoons, bringing the size of the force to more than 1,500 personnel. Five years ago there were 66 BTGs. Today there are 168, Sergey Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, revealed in August. These shock troops linked up effectively with local paramilitary proxy units in Ukraine during the previous incursion of 2013-2015. There are currently 50 BTGs deployed on the border with Ukraine. Even the best Kremlinologists can only guess what is in Putin’s mind. But it would seem the Russian leader might have three aims, outside of an actual invasion: to rehearse Russia’s ability and capacity to cross the border and hold large swathes of territory in Ukraine at short notice; to warn off Nato from ever allowing Ukraine to become a member of the western alliance; and to test President Biden’s nerve. If Putin is prepared to take the gamble of ordering an invasion force into Ukraine, timing will be crucial. In January the flat terrain in south-eastern Ukraine will be frozen, ideal for tank movements. He will also need more troops, potentially doubling the number of BTGs to 100. So other BTGs currently on alert in army brigade garrisons would have to be transported by road and rail to join the combat groups already assembled. Biden and Nato would then know from US satellite pictures that Putin had finally made up his mind to invade and face the consequences.

It's party party party...or not

Does anyone have a clue whether it's ok to have an office Christmas party, let alone kiss under the mistletoe? Here in the UK, the signals are downright confusing, with some ministers saying it's fine and dandy to go ahead while others then very helpfully point out that they in their departments are NOT going to be boozing and dancing but may do something on Zoom. Oh for goodness sake. Government ministers are so desperately anxious not to put a foot wrong that I'm amazed they have the courage to speak out on anything. Where are the ministers with actual views which they believe in and stick to? It's all U-turns and evasion and confusion. As for kissing under the mistletoe that was always a dodgy event if it involved strangers. A wonderful surprise or a dreadful slippery experience. With Omicron around let's forget the mistletoe but surely a Christmas party with a little bit of jollity might be all right, especially if everyone promises they have been vaccinated at least once and preferably three times. That's it, I've got it. Office Christmas parties should be renamed Booster parties where eveeryone has to provide confirmation that they have had the booster jab and can then walk into the room full of confidence and bonhomie.

Angela Merkel's long goodbye

Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany for 16 years, announced her retirement in 2018. Talk about a long goodbye, she is still around and won't actually leave her offica for the last time until next week. Bless her, I wonder if even then she will remember to pack up her things and leave on time. At least she won't shed tears of bitterness and betrayal like the other Iron Lady did, Maggie Thatcher, after she had been politically stabbed in the back by her so-called cabinet colleagues. Maggie was photographed with eyes filled with tears as she was limousined out of Downing Street on her last day as prime minister - November 28 1990. Merkel on the other hand has been planning her last day as chancellor for so long that it's beginning to feel she will never leave. But her successor has already shown what he is made of and has had ample time to try on Merkel's shoes. By the sound of it dear old Angela is going to have some fun when she leaves next week. She has chosen a strange mix of music which she wants played on her last day. For her military farewell ceremony on Thursday she has chosen three tunes, one of which is a punk rock song called You Forgot the Colour Film. Weird! Anyway, she will go out with a musical bang. And the Olaf Scholz era will begin.

Omicron pi rho sigma tau etc etc

I don't believe, on the basis of the medical evdence so far, that the Omicron variant of Covid-19 is going to be the worst, the scariest, the deadliest, the most fatal of the different versions of the virus we have had to face over the last two years. Everyone is rushing towards close-down (not lockdown) mode as if Omicron is about to cut a swathe through the world's population. If it really does threaten to be the most lethal, which some experts seem to believe, then presumably that august but hopelessly bureaucratic body, the World Health Organisation, would have sounded the alarm. But no, the message appears to be caution, not panic. So why the panic! Why the despairing cry that once again Christmas is going to be ruined. Last Christmas was the worst Christmas in my family ever! It ended up with no family, cancelled plans and a takeaway curry on Christmas Day. There is absolutely no way that is going to be repeated. So please, Omicron, go away or just dissipate into nothing. I'm truly sorry for those who have caught the latest variant but there is no evidence as yet that it has led to serious, let alone fatal illness. Wearing masks in shops and public transport is of course the right policy and should be vigorously enforced. And anyone who has refused to be vaccinated should be persuaded in the strongest possible terms to get jabbed soonest. But otherwise let life go on as "normal" because when Omicron has done its bit, then there's pi, rho, sigma, tau and the rest to follow, potentially. We can't panic every time a new letter of the Greek alphabet is thrown at us!

Is it really going to be Biden versus Trump in 2024?

The thought of a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump for the US presidency in 2024 is so depressing. One can only despair at the way politics in America have gone in the last five years. Four years of Trump was surely enough for anyone and everyone, and after nearly a year of Biden, there's no question he is a decent man but he sounds increasingly awful. So raspy of voice and slightly feeble in projection. He is not a commanding presence and normally US presidents have to have a commanding presence, preferably from a considerable height to sound and look right. Obama had the look and presence, Clinton had it, the two Bushes got away with it because they were a sort of dynasty and Kennedy, well Kennedy was Hollywood. He had everything going for him. Biden speaks with no conviction half the time even if his policies are relatively sound. As for Trump, well he has the height and the hair and the big shoulders and the floaty hands and the bellowing voice but he was always kinda scary and I really don't think the United States of America should seriously consder having him back in the White House. But the Biden/Trump show seems to be building up and up, with both the current president and the former president looking to 2024 as the next stage in their political careers. Trump definitely wants to stand again and presumably thinks he will win. Biden also definitely wants to stand because he will want to prove to the voters that he is good for an eight-year stint, never mind his advancing years. But can you imagine what his voice will sound like in, say, 2026? But if Biden says he is going to stand for reelection, then other Democratic hopefuls, notably Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg, will have to stand back and wait for 2028.

The Pentagon reviews its global military requirements

China’s modernising People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is getting younger, smarter and more focused on frontline combat readiness. In line with orders from President Xi Zinping six years ago, the PLA has divested itself of 300,000 non-combat personnel, bringing to an end the military careers of dancers, singers, editors, writers and some medical staff, all of whom had roles which are now regarded as unnecessary for Beijing’s dream of being a world-class superpower. As part of China’s objective of building a military force capable of mounting both defensive and offensive missions, Beijing now has plans to increase the size of its marine corps from around 40,000 personnel to 100,000 to protect the nation’s maritime ambitions in the South and East China Seas, and prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan, according to the South China Morning Post. In 2019 the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based US think-tank, said the Chinese marine corps had grown from two brigades to eight, totalling about 40,000 marines. It said the PLA may have transferred more than 20,000 army troops to the marine units. Recent training programmes indicate the marine force is expected to perform expeditionary missions in any terrain and climate. In its annual report on China, published this month (Nov), the Pentagon revealed that of the eight marine brigades, five were stationed in the Taiwan Strait area, alongside six amphibious brigades, seven airborne brigades and five artillery brigades. The Taiwan Strait area includes the PLA’s eastern and southern theatres. The PLA has 12 units organised and equipped to carry out amphibious landings and seize and defend small islands. Over the last five years, according to the Pentagon, the PLA army (PLAA) and the PLA navy marine corps (PLANMC) have fielded new equipment designed specifically for amphibious operations. They include the ZBD-05 amphibious infantry fighting vehicle and the PLZ-07B amphibious self-propelled howitzer. Watching the steady, and in some cases remarkable pace of China’s military modernisation programme, the Pentagon has been conducting a global posture review to make sure America’s forces are aligned in sufficient strength and firepower capability around the world to confront the security threats emerging. The unclassified version of the review’s conclusions, outlined yesterday (Tues), highlights the Indo-Pacific as the priority region for the Pentagon in the years ahead. The challenge, Mara Karlin, the Pentagon’s deputy undersecretary for policy, was “to deter potential military aggression from China and threats from North Korea” whose leader, Kim Jong-un, is supported by Beijing. The review, the first to be carried out by the Biden administration, was also about broadening cooperation with allies and partners across the region, including Australia, Pacific islands, Japan, and South Korea. The Pentagon has already taken steps to station a permanent Apache attack helicopter squadron and artillery division headquarters in South Korea. There will also be new measures to boost military infrastructure and increase the presence of fighter and bomber aircraft in order to improve deterrence for the island of Guam in the western Pacific where the US has a significant airbase, and in Australia. “In Australia you’ll see new rotational fighter and bomber aircraft deployments,” Karlin said at a Pentagon briefing. The aircraft are expected to include B-2 stealth bombers, as well as F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters. The deployment of more US jet fighters and bombers to Australia was flagged a day after the AUKUS treaty was signed with America and Britain to supply the Canberra government with nuclear-powered submarine technology. The decision enraged France because it meant scrapping the existing deal for the French to supply conventionally-powered submarines. But it also upset Beijing which accused Australia of undermining regional peace and intensifying an arms race in the Pacific. Under the global posture review, there will be Improvements to airfields in both Australia and Guam. The work which will start next year will expand America’s capacity to deploy troop reinforcements to the region in the event of a security crisis. “You’ll see ground forces training and increased logistics cooperation and more broadly across the Indo-Pacific, you’ll see a range of infrastructure improvements in Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Marian Islands [14 US islands in the north western Pacific Ocean] and Australia," Karlin said. The Pentagon announcement comes four days after Peter Dutton, the Australian defence minister, said every city in the country was vulnerable to a Chinese missile attack. Australia, he said, was at the epicentre of “global strategic competition” caused by the rise of China as a world power. Last week the Canberra government revealed a Chinese military spy ship was recently tracked for three weeks off the coast of Australia inside the 125-mile exclusive economic zone. Despite increasing belligerent rhetoric from Beijing, and regular military flights to test Taiwan’s defences, the unclassified report on the Pentagon’s global posture review does not specifically reallocate US troops from other parts of the world to the Indo-Pacific to confront China. Karlin said the Indo-Pacific region was a “priority theatre” but declined to talk about potential additional force numbers. It is possible, however, that as the Biden administration continues to reassess security requirements for the future, there will be additional troop deployments to the region. These could be outlined in the forthcoming national defence strategy which is currently under review. The global posture review has underlined the challenges faced by the Biden administration. China is not the only concern. Biden has already rescinded the 25,000-troop cap in Germany set by President Trump because of growing aggressiveness by Russia. In August the Pentagon notified Belgium and Germany that the US would keep its forces at seven sites which had previously been designated for return to the host nations.

Ex-US defence secretary takes on the Pentagon

Former US defence secretary Mark Esper who was “terminated” in a tweet by President Trump is now suing his old department for blocking key passages in a memoir about his volatile relationship with his ex-commander-in-chief. Esper, 57, was Pentagon chief from July 2019 to November 2020 and has written his own version of what it was like to serve under Trump, including during the violent civil unrest following the murder by a white police officer of African-American George Floyd in Minneapolis. The memoir called A Sacred Oath includes his recollection of private one-to-one conversations he had with Trump as well as discussions with the former president and officials during crisis national security meetings. Esper who was deeply engaged in high-level Trump administration debates on pulling US troops out of Afghanistan and acting against Iran and North Korea over their nuclear weapons programmes, denies that his book includes any classified material, or compromises national security. The issue that finally persuaded Trump to sack Esper just six days after losing the presidential election on November 3, 2020 was the defence secretary’s opposition to deploying active-service troops on the streets in Washington and elsewhere to counter rioters protesting over the fatal shooting of George Floyd. The dispute over his memoir is the most bitter legal issue involving a past cabinet member since the attempt by the Trump administration to stop John Bolton, ex-national security adviser, from publishing a book about his tempestuous relationship with the former president. In a statement, Esper said the objective with the book was to make public “a full and unvarnished accounting of our nation’s history, especially the more difficult periods”. His lawsuit, filed in the federal district court in Washington, says: “Significant text is being improperly withheld from publication in Secretary Esper’s manuscript under the guise of classification.” “I am more than disappointed the current administration is infringing on my First Amendment constitutional rights,” Esper said. The lawsuit says Esper was in charge at the Pentagon through “an unprecedented time of civil unrest, public health crises, growing threats abroad, Pentagon transformation and a White House seemingly bent on circumventing the constitution”. Esper submitted a draft of his memoir in May to the Pentagon department that handles security reviews of planned books to ensure there are no breaches of national security. In November he wrote an email to Lloyd Austin, his successor at the Pentagon, complaining that “multiple words, sentences and paragraphs from approximately 60 pages of the manuscript were redacted”. He had been asked not to quote Trump and others in meetings nor to describe conversations with the former president and “to not use certain verbs or nouns when describing historical events”. “Many items were already in the public domain, “ Esper said. “As with all such reviews, the department takes seriously its obligation to balance national security with an author’s narrative desire,” John Kirby, Pentagon press secretary, said. “Given that this matter is now under litigation, we will refrain from commenting further,” he said.

So there won't be an Xi variant of Covid-19

The World Health Organisation has moved swiftly to make sure that there can never be an Xi variant of Covid-19. The new one emanating from Southern Africa and considered to be potentially the most dangerous and transmissable one to date was described as the Nu variant. That new name only lasted a few hours because, presumably, some official in China, possibly someone working high up in the WHO, realised with heart in mouth that when the next strain turned up, the new variant might be called the Xi variant because xi follows nu in the Greek alphabet. Even though the alphabet hasn't been followed strictly, some wag in WHO might have insisted on Nu being followed by Xi, just to emphasise to the world at large that Covid originated in Wuhan in China and therefore it was right and proper and appropriate that one of the variants should be called Xi - although of course not in honour of, or in deference to, let alone as an insultt to Xi Zinping, the Chinese president who gets very angry when anyone suggests the virus started in China at all. Anyway the danger passed. The WHO dropped Nu and went for Omicron, skipping Xi which in the Greek alphabet sits between the two letters. Diplomatic crisis averted. If variants get all the way to Omega, the last letter in the Greek alphabet I bet the watchmakers with that name will kick up a helluva fuss. With any luck the pandemic will be over by then and there will be no Omega variant or for that matter pi, rho, sigma, tau, upsilon, phi, chi or psi.

Franco-British war of words

Boris has bungled. Writing a letter to the French government, setting out what he wants France to do to meet the growing migrant problem, and then publishing it on his Twitter account smacks of Trump. With such a sensitive issue dividing Britain from France, these sort of things need to be dealt with confidentially, especially with the French who get very uptight very quickly if they think the Brits are trying to get one over them. Basically, since Brexit, the French government under Macron despises the Brits and Boris in particular. So to publish his demands on Twitter will be seen in Paris as Boris throwing down the gauntlet like a schoolboy in the playground. They immediately cancelled the invitation to Pritti Patel, the Home Secretary, to attend a crucial meeting with the EU countries affected by the present crisis. Patel was disinvited. I bet she didn't appreciate that. What a farce, grownups or alleged grownups behaving like spoilt children. And now we have yet another variant of Covid potentially to hit our shores with an even more dangerous pedigree. Boris has cancelled all flights from South Africa and other African countries as from today (Friday) but the variant was first discovered in South Africa on Tuesday, so two whole days went by with many flights arriving in the UK. How many of the passengers will have brought the new virus with them? It won't be long before the whole of Europe is suffering from the so-called Nu variant which might be too strong for the vaccines and make everyone vulnerable once again. Is anything going right at the moment? It seems not.

When will race not be an issue in the US?

The answer is never unfortunately. Race divisions have been part of the American way of life since the country was founded in 1776. The terrible days of racial and racist segregation are over but the murder of 25-year-old Ahmaud Arbery, a black man, by three white men, has shown that the lynch-mob tendency is still alive and well. Arbery was jogging in a white area and was therefore seen as highly suspicious and possibly a robber because of a spate of recent burglaries and needed to be challenged and dealt with. It was like a scene out of the brilliant 1980s film, Mississipi Burning. The court case in which the three white men were eventually found guilty and now face life imprisonment, had terrifying echoes of that film. The defence counsel for the defendants spoke in appallingly racist language to try and persuade the jury that Arbery deserved what happened to him. At one point attorney Laura Hogue told the jury that Arbery was wearing no socks "to cover his long dirty toenails". I wasn't in the court room obviously but I can just see the attorney saying these words with a sneer on her face. The whole case was riddled with racism and the fact that the jury dismissed the self-defence argument and found the men guilty was thanks to the clear evidence on video that Arbery had been killed for only one reason. He was black. Or to put it another way, he didn't look like any of the three men who were involved in his brutal death. On Thanksgiving Day, a time of celebration for the whole nation, I wish all my American friends a happy family get-together. Added to the Thanksgiving should be huge thanksgiving and relief that the three white men were convicted of this appalling crime.

The Pentagon is back hunting for UFOs

The Pentagon and America’s top spying agency are to begin an investigation to decide once and for all whether UFOs pose a threat to the United States. After decades of failing to explain the unexplainable presence of mysterious brightly-lit, rapidly accelerating and oddly-shaped phenomena in the skies, especially over US military installations, the Pentagon has set up yet another organisation to try and find answers. Only five months ago, a special US government task force concluded following an examination into more than 140 UFO sightings over two decades that there was no evidence of anything non-terrestrial involved in the incidents. However, the possibility of an alien presence could not be ruled out. In 18 cases there appeared to be a demonstration of technological know-how unfamiliar to the US – or, it was believed, to China and Russia. With both intelligence officials and UFO conspiracy theorists dissatisfied with the result, the Pentagon decided to have one more go at tracking and identifying any future suspected mystery objects in the sky. “Incursions by any airborne object into our ‘special-use airspace’ pose safety of flight and operations security concerns and may pose national security challenges,” the Pentagon said in a statement. Special-use airspace is defined as areas over military bases, training ranges and national security locations, such as the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia, and the National Security Agency (NSA) at Fort Meade in Maryland. “The DoD [department of defence] takes reports of incursions – by any airborne object identified or unidentified - very seriously and investigates each one,” the Pentagon said. Now the UFO issue, or unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) as the Pentagon calls it, has been handed over to a new organisation consisting of senior defence officials and representatives from the office of the director of national intelligence which oversees America’s 18 spying agencies. The 18th spy service belongs to the recently formed US Space Force which is expected to play an important role in deciding whether or not strange aerial phenomena might have begun their journey from beyond the Earth’s atmosphere. The new organisation has the acronym AOIMSG (airborne object identification and management synchronisation group).

China's questionable hypersonic missile test

So now it seems China carried out a hypersonic missile test at the end of July as well as in August and, according to the Financial Times, during the earth-orbiting hypersonic trip the Mach 5-plus glide vehicle managed to launch another projectile of some sort before it headed for its target, missing by about 12 miles. What on earth was the objective of this missile within a missile experiment? Very clever if true and certainly the Pentagon seems somewhat aghast at the technology demonstrated by the Chinese. But to what end? Could this extra hidden missie/projectile be a decoy system to fool attempts to shoot down the hypersonic glide vehicle? Possibly. Could it be just another missile with another target in mind? Possible, too, but seems a little silly, especially if the Chinese actually go ahead with having such a weapon careering round the earth during an international crisis - with a nuclear warhead attached. The biggest mystery of all is why Beijing is so intent on having the technology to put a nuclear warhead into low orbit. Is it supposed to be a new type of deterrent to the United States or is it seen as a usable war-winning weapon to force the US to surrender or back off what it was thinking of doing, like going to Taiwan's aid in the event of a Chinese PLA invasion? No one knows what's in Xi Zinping's mind but there is only one conclusion as far as I can see. The Chinese president is playing a very dangerous, even reckless, game here.

Thousands of US Marines could be booted out over Covid vaccine refusal

The deadline for the US military to get vaccinated against Covid is fast approaching. Normally when ordered to do something soldiers, marines, airmen, sailors etc generally get on with it. But for reasons that have not been made public, six per cent of US Marines have refused or failed to have the vaccine. That's potentially around 11,000 Marines who could be kicked out of the corps. It's an extraordinary situation. It's not for religious reasons because apparently that has not been given as the excuse for turning down the jab. It's much more likely that the Marines who have refused to be vaccinated have been put off by social media, or some propaganda put about by ignorant or malign groups who believe that it's against an individual's right of choice which it seems is more important than protecting both yourself and everone else. Or perhaps some of these Marines are plain scared of the needle, although that seems a bit far-fetched. These are Marines, right? They obey the rules on haircuts and tattoos but vaccinations appear to be in a different category. They feel they have the right to disobey their commanders. So unless there is a change of mind their careers will come to an abrupt end. It sounds like they need some serious friendly advice from persuasive colleagues or commanders to overcome their fears/doubts. The US Marine Corps has to recruit something like 36,000 people every year to fill vacancies. It can ill afford to lose 11,000 trained Marines. It makes no sense.

The Rittenhouse defence

This kid Kyle Rittenhouse (well 17 at the time of the incident but he still looked pretty young in court) has been acquitted of the murder of two men whom he shot during protests in Kinosha, Wisconsin following the shooting by police of a black man who is now paralysed. There are two things about this extraordinary story which only Americans who believe in the right for all citizens to carry and fire weapons in public places will be able to understand. This acquitted teenager didn't live in Kinosha. He lived in Antioch, Illinois and crossed state lines in order to reach the city in Wisconsin. He went there, he said, in order to protect property and provide medical help where and when required. Sounds very altruistic. But along with his first-aid kit he also brought with him into the protesting city of Kinosha an assault rifle of some kind. Presumably to stand guard outside vulnerable buildings to keep protestors away. I make no comment about the court case and the acquittal. The jury found him not guilty of murder on the grounds that he was acting in sef-defence. That's the law - in the US at least - and so be it. But it begs so many questions. He went to help the people of Kinosha carrying an assault rifle. He was 17 and he had an assault rifle at home to take out whenever he saw fit. Turning up in neighburing Kinosha with an assault rifle cannot be considered a very wise move. Did his parents know what he was doing? He then opened fire during the melee when he felt scared that his life was at risk, killing two men and injuring a third. The man who survived did acknowledge that he was pointing his pistol at Rittenhouse before the kid fired his assault rifle. The whole scenario just beggars belief. It is perfectly all right apparently for a teenager to go to someone else's city with an assault rifle and open fire in self-defence. Is this madness or what?

Joe Biden is healthy and raring to go

Happy Birthday Joe Biden, 79 today. And, according to his official doctor, healthy and fit apart from a stiffness in the spine, a need to clear the throat a lot and high blood pressure. We normal souls get to hear all these fascinating details because he's the president of the United States and the doctor in question is required to reveal all, never mind Biden's personal data rights. So it's fortunate he doesn't suffer from anything that might be more embarrassing. But now we know why he coughs a lot during speeches and looks like he has a rod of steel in his back. But for someone who is one year away from being an octogenarian, President Biden is in tip-top health and looks pretty likely to have a go at a second four-year term. He has more than three years to get his first-term legacy sorted out but once his $1.75 trillion social programme has been passed through Congress he will be more confident of winning again in 2024. The House of Representatives has just approved the bill, so it's looking good for him. Age will definitely be an issue in 2024 but then if Trump stands again, he's getting on too so the former one-term won't be able to play that card. Anyway let's forget about 2024 for the moment. Enjoy your 79th birthday, Joe Biden.

China worries the Pentagon

Anti-ship missile firings at a US supercarrier mock-up in the desert, a hypersonic weapon flight around the Earth, military preparations to invade Taiwan – all apparent signs of an increasingly belligerent China rehearsing for war. One of America’s most senior military officers added to concerns this week by warning that China could one day launch a surprise nuclear attack on the United States. This conclusion by General John Hyten, outgoing vice chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, is just the latest warning about China’s possible intentions as it builds a conventional and nuclear force to match America’s superpower military capabilities. Hyten spent three years as commander of US Strategic Command, in charge of America’s nuclear weapons. He is steeped in Armageddon scenarios. His voice of doom about China’s rapidly-growing military advances which he has previously described as “stunning” reflect the general view among the Pentagon’s top hierarchy that Beijing is on a course that could lead inevitably and unavoidably to conflict with the US. Despite the modestly encouraging agreement between President Biden and President Xi of China to start discussions about strategic stability and nuclear arms control, satellite images demonstrate a persistent picture of a nation preparing for war and developing exotic weapons that put the US homeland at grave risk. Recent satellite images of a Chinese firing range in the desert in the northwest revealed a full-scale model of a US Navy Gerald R Ford-class aircraft carrier sitting on a rail line as a massive moving target for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to test the latest anti-ship missiles. Further images of the same desert site spotted two full-size mock-ups of US Air Force E-3 Sentry airborne early warning aircraft (Awacs) for target practice. Referring to a flight test in August in which China took the Pentagon by surprise by launching a hypersonic missile that orbited the Earth, Hyten told CBS News in an interview this week: “They launched a long-range missile, it went around the world, dropped off a hypersonic glide vehicle that glided all the way back to China that impacted a target in China.” Asked if the hypersonic glide vehicle, travelling at more than five times the speed of sound , hit the target, he replied: “Close enough”. Were the glide vehicle to be armed with a nuclear warhead, it wouldn’t need to be that accurate. “Why are they building all of this capability?” Hyten questioned. “They look like a first-use weapon. That’s what those weapons look like to me.” As the Pentagon revealed in its annual report on China’s military published this month, the concerns about Beijing’s intentions cover the whole gamut of weapons being developed. American military commanders can only look on in amazement at the speed with which the Chinese navy is being converted into a global maritime force, with aircraft carriers, nuclear-powered submarines, cruisers, destroyers and amphibious assault ships under construction at a rate that makes the US industrial production line seem grindingly slow by comparison. The US Navy’s new-generation aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R Ford, will be immensely capable when it deploys on operations for the first time next year. But it has cost more than $13 billion and is three years late. China is already working on a carrier that in many ways copies what the US has designed for the new Ford-class. For example, the PLA Navy (Plan) is switching from steam-driven aircraft-launch catapults to an electromagnetic system, similar to that on the USS Gerald R Ford. China currently has only two carriers, compared with America’s 11. But the second domestically-built carrier is expected to be operational by 2024, joining the Liaoning, rebuilt from an old Soviet Kuznetsov-class aircraft cruiser, and the first Chinese-designed carrier called Shandong. The Plan is also working on a number of future carrier-based aircraft. This includes the development of China’s J-15 fourth-generation strike fighter into a catapult-capable version. It has already been tested from land-based steam and electromagnetic catapults. There have been reports , too, of China’s aim to convert its fifth-generation J-20 stealth fighter into a carrier-based aircraft, although it would seem to be too large for this role. The J-20 was designed to try and match the US Air Force F-22 Raptor stealth fighter. The Pentagon says China is on the way to building a multi-carrier force, and since it is already the top ship-producing nation in the world by tonnage and has the largest navy on the planet, it is small wonder every US commander of Indo-Pacific Command has been warning for years of the threat posed by Beijing’s burgeoning maritime power. Admiral Philip Davidson who retired as Indo-Pacific commander in April famously warned that China could take control of Taiwan “in the next six years”. He pointed to China’s advances in ballistic and hypersonic missile technology which he said was rapidly changing the “security paradigm” in the region. This week the US-China economic and security review commission, a Congress-appointed agency, warned that the Chinese military had the ability to land 25,000 troops on the island to establish a beachhead. Is China practicing for war before it reaches the goal set by President Xi to have a world-class military by 2049? “Of course the PLA is practicing, or training, for war. All serious militaries do,” Andrew Krepinevich, a former senior Pentagon official, said. “Whether the CCP [Chinese communist party] will wait until 2049 will depend on its calculations of cost, benefit and risk,” he said. “These are dynamic factors that are constantly in flux, as well as the person or group of people who are making the go/no go decision, that is to say their view of the prospective costs and benefits and their risk tolerance,” he said.

Is there any real hope of a nuclear arms deal between the US and China?

The agreement between President Biden and President Xi to discuss nuclear arms control has been hailed as a breakthrough but realistically the chances of a meaningful deal are low. Under Xi, China is progressing rapidly towards its aim of being a military superpower on a par with the United States by 2049. All elements of Beijing’s military modernisation programme, including the build-up of nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems, have that objective in mind. Looking at arms control through Beijing’s eyes, the only reason why Xi would be interested in US/China talks would be to persuade Washington to make substantial cuts in its nuclear stockpile. There is no obvious quid pro quo that Beijing would wish to offer because even if China were to reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, as predicted by the Pentagon, the US would still have a more than 3-1 numerical advantage. The current US arsenal stands at 3,750 warheads. Moreover, any talk of warhead reductions by the US could not take place without the involvement of Russia. It remains to be seen whether China would contemplate a trilateral arms control discussion which the US has been pushing for unsuccessfully for many years. However, there are areas where bilateral negotiations might have a positive influence on relations between the US and China, if only to introduce an element of transparency on the key question: at what point would either side be prepared to resort to using nuclear weapons? This has become an important issue because of the move towards deploying ballistic missiles with low-yield nuclear warheads. The US already has low-yield warheads (8-10 kilotons) fitted to some of the Trident II missiles on board Ohio class strategic submarines, and Chinese strategists have written about the need for lower-yield nuclear weapons to increase deterrence. In its annual report on China, published this month, the Pentagon warned that Beijing might fit small warheads to the Dong Feng-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile. Critics of this concept of nuclear deterrence warn that small-yield nuclear weapons on long-range missiles lower the threshold for their use, and thus make them more liable to be launched in a controlled manner on the battlefield. As part of nuclear arms control discussions it would be imperative for the US and China to understand how each approaches this topic. The notion of a usable nuclear warhead, taking it outside the realm of deterrence theology, has potential for alarming miscalculation. On nuclear weapons, China has a stated no first use policy, although the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has also adopted a “launch on warning” position under which a nuclear missile can be fired preemptively if there is a warning of an incoming missile strike. The Pentagon has confirmed that the PLA rocket force (PLARF) has conducted exercises involving early warning of a nuclear strike and launch on warning responses. This posture is broadly similar to the US and Russian position. Another important area for discussion between the US and China would be Beijing’s claim that it only maintains a minimum deterrent. Beijing’s idea of minimum or limited deterrence is clearly evolving as China, under Xi, develops its desired “world class” military.

Three hours of talking by Biden and Xi got nowhere

Well Washington HAD played down the likelihood of any amazing breakthroughs in the video chat between Joe Biden and Xi Zinping but it seems that in the three and a half hours of chat, nothing concrete was actually agreed apart from some reference to easing visas for their respective media. Three cheers for that, but you would have thought there might have been a little bit more to chew on the day after. At least Xi called Joe his old friend which was nice. But old friends are supposed to look for ways out of problems. Biden and Xi just went over old and familiar ground without meeting in the middle. Taiwan is a hopeless case because there is absolutely no compromise as far as either leader was concerned. Biden adhered to the Congress act which allows the US to help Taiwan defend itself, and Xi made all sorts of warning sounds to Joe to steer clear of Taiwan and not to even consider interferng in the event of a decision by Beijing to take back what he says belongs to China. So the potential for conflict between China and the US remains a realistic possibility. Neither the US nor China wants a war but Xi could not have made it clearer that the US has no right to get involved in a matter which comes solely under China's jurisdiction. Biden will have come away from his video chat with a flea in his ear. All somewhat disappointing but hardly surprising.

Russia smashes a satellite into 1,500 bits

The US is outraged that Russia hit one of its old satellites, scattering debris throughout space and forcing astronauts in the international space station, including two Russians, to take cover in refuge capsules. At least 1,500 bits and pieces, all capable of doing serious damage to something like the space station, were sent hurling around like swarms of metal projectiles. All highly dangerous and irresponsible as the US state department spokesman said. But while everyone is focusing on those cowering spacemen in the space station, what about the fact that the Russians have proved they have developed an anti-satellite weapon that is clearly deadly accurate and effective? A huge fuss was made in Washington when China launched a similar test some time ago, and North Korea, too, is known to be developing anti-satellite weapons with only one target in mind - America's neworks of reconnaissance and communications satellites in orbit around the Earth upon which the US military depend for their operational life. The scattering of debris in space seems to have gripped America because of those poor vulnerable astronauts but the real worry surely is Russia must be cockahoop about the satellite direct hit. I'm sure the US is working on a similar capability but Russia seems to have got in first. Was the Pentagon caught out by the successful Russian satellite-smashing event? Russia seems to be pushing the envelope militarily despite a pretty poor economy. It has the first deployed hypersonic missile, the first hypersonic nuclear cruise missile and now a proven ability to shoot down satellites in space. Yes, China is the big one to worry about but never underestimate Russia and Putin's dreams of being a military super superpower.

Will coal still be the ruin of us all?

John Kerry, tall immaculately haired climate change special envoy for President Biden, has sounded a reasonably opimistic note about the Glasgow COP26 summit of 200 nations. I like John Kerry, he has serious gravitas and that's good in this flippant world. He believes that coal production has to be phased down before it can be phased out, and that what was agreed at the summit should prevent the world from suffering climate catastrophe. Like Boris Johnson, he regretted the last-minute change of language in the final draft of the communique, after India and China insisted on "phase down" instead of "phase out". But at least coal was high on the hitlist and without that agreed change in text there probably wouldn't have been an agreed text at all which would have been disastrous. So I prefer to go along with Kerry's reasoned optimism rather than Greta Thunberg's summing-up of COP26 as just blah blah bah. There was a helluva lot more than blah blah blah but to realise that you have to read the text and I somehow doubt the Swedish climate activist spent enough time reading the whole deal. If Kerry is convinced that the agreement will prevent the sort of catastrophe that has been predicted on the BBC almost every night then I'll go along with that. Provided of course every nation who signed up to the deal actually implements the agreements and, even more important, continues to find ways of improving on the deal. No one can stop the world's temperature from rising by 1.5 C but everyone can do their bit to prevent it rising above that level.

Get better soon, Ma'am

Anything and everything that happens to Queen Elizabeth II is of interest to millions of people. She was unable to attend the Cenotaph ceremony on Remembrance Sunday today because of a strained back and you can read the headlines across the world. I liked the headline in The Hill in the US: "Queen Elizabeth II skips event after straining back". At the age of 95 her skipping days are over but we know what they mean. The Queen is such an important part of so many people's lives that we all worry at the slightest change in her daily life. A cold, a strained back, feeling a little under the weather, not quite herself - all these phrases provide royal correspondents with endless reasons to speculate but most of them, if not all, do so with respect and affection. How she strained her back we don't know and probably never will know but at her age, with all due respect, Ma'am, even getting out of your favourite chair can give an unexpected and unwelcome twist. But one thing we know from the Queen is that as soon as she can she will be back carrying out all her duties. After all these years as the monarch, it really is an extraordinary story of devotion to duty.

Are we really closer to a war with Russia than in the Cold War?

I always worry when a very senior military chief, either serving or retiring, starts warning about war with Russia or whoever. Not because I think he knows more about what's really goinig on in some part of the world and is therefore in possession of some alarming intelligence which he feels we ought to know about. But because very senior military chiefs tend to think of nothing else and fail to see the broader picture. Thus, General Sir Nick Carter, outgoing British chief of the defence staff, the top dog at the Ministry of Defence, has given a warning that an "accidental" war with Russia is now more likely than at any time durring the Cold War era. An accidental war? There is no such thing as an accidental war, not if it involves Russia anyway. Everything Putin does is calculated and calculated again. If he wants a war he will engineer it. If he doesn't want a war he will make sure that if he is being pushy and aggressive it will only go so far; in other words, he won't take that fatal step which will invite/provoke Nato to answer back militarily. So he won't invade Ukraine with 100,000 troops and tanks and armoured vehicles and rockets because he knows that would provoke the US into action. The US has come up with that old and familiar phrase about how America's commitment to Ukraine is "iron clad". These two words are overused by Washington but I assume they have been selected as the go-to phrase because they are meant to imply that the US would rush to Ukraine's aid with all the firepower necessary if Russian troops invaded the country. It's not a straightforward calculation for Putin because the US and Nato didn't exactly rush to help when Russia invaded two provinces in Georgia in 2008 and then annexed Crimea by force in 2014. But that iron-clad phrase for Ukraine probably means what it says. Anyway it would be a helluva risk for Putin. And the last thing he wants is to have a war with Nato. And lose. So no way is there going to be an "accidental" war with Russia over Ukraine. I don't know what General Sir Nick Carter has in mind but what he said in an interview with Times Radio was the usual old stuff spoken by an outgoing defence chief who wants to warn the world that it is in a more dangerous position now that ever before. Well thanks for that. But give Putin his due. He knows better than most that going to war is a serious business and has to be worked out tactically, strategically and purposefully. Nothing would be accidental. Nor would it be accidental on Nato's side. Nato has had more experience of fighting wars than Russia in the last few decades, and has no intention of fighting one with Russia unless Putin decides to invade Ukraine or Latvia or Lithuania or Estonia or all of them at once. But he won't do that, and he certainly won't do it by mistake. So the Carter Doctrine doesn't sound that impressive or realistic. It's Carter talking without thinking of what Putin might be thinking. The bigger international picture.

CIA director and Putin have a phone chat

A phone conversation between President Putin and the director of the CIA played a key role in lowering concerns in Washington about the Russian leader’s reported threat to order troops into Ukraine. Sent to Moscow by President Biden as his special envoy, William Burns, the Russian-speaking US spy chief, spoke to Putin about the build-up of troops, tanks and other armoured vehicles on the Ukraine border. Although the detailed contents of the one-to-one phone call remain secret, the involvement of Burns, a former ambassador to Moscow, has underlined the growing diplomatic role being played by the CIA chief. In August Biden sent Burns to Kabul to meet Taliban leader Abdul Ghani Baradar to discuss final arrangements for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by the August 31 deadline and to remind the new rulers of their commitment to sever links with al-Qaeda. Burns is the first member of the US diplomatic service to be appointed CIA director and his use as a special envoy in foreign policy crises reflects a subtle change in emphasis at America’s primary intelligence agency. Successive CIA directors, like their counterparts in MI6, have by tradition enjoyed unique access to world leaders. But Biden chose an outsider to head up the CIA with a career background in diplomacy in order to exploit that historic access at times of greatest urgency, sources said. Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, warned in Washington this week that Moscow would be making a serious mistake if it mounted aggressive action against Ukraine, following claims by the defence ministry in Kyiv that about 90,000 Russian troops were stationed near the border. However, Biden had already turned to Burns to challenge Putin. Burns is a “crisis-tested” diplomat who served as ambassador in Moscow from 2005 to 2008 during his 33-year career, and knows Russia and the Moscow leadership better than anyone. He is said to be an expert in seeing the world through Putin’s eyes. Although his trip to Moscow was in his role as the head of the CIA, an agency that focuses on clandestine operations, his experience as a highly-respected ambassador provided the perfect combination for his phone call with Putin, himself a former KGB foreign intelligence officer for 16 years. One of the CIA’s principal functions is to ensure that the US is not caught by surprise. The agency was formed in 1947 as a result of the worst wartime surprise in America’s history, the bombing of Pearl Harbour by the Japanese in 1941. The US has been surprised on many occasions since Pearl Harbour such as the fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979 and the 9/11 al-Qaeda terrorist attack in 2001. However, with Burns at the helm of the CIA, Biden appears to be determined to prioritise diplomacy over intelligence as a way of putting maximum leverage on adversaries. Thus, a single phone call with Putin might have given the Biden administration a better understanding of Putin’s intentions towards Ukraine than an assessment of the latest satellite images of the Russian border troop build-up. In recent years the CIA has become significantly more involved in paramilitary, counter-terrorist operations. CIA paramilitary officers in a mission codenamed Jawbreaker were in Afghanistan working with anti-Taliban allies and hunting for al-Qaeda 11 days before the arrival of the first US and British special forces. As the war on terror continued, there were concerns that the CIA’s focus on counter-terrorism would weaken intelligence-gathering capabilities in relation to Russia and China. That perceived imbalance has now changed, and Burns has put Russia and China at the top of his priorities.

The Joe and Zinping show

Big one for the diary: Monday November 15th, in the evening. This is the date chosen by Washington and Beijing for the virtual summit between President Joe Biden and President Xi Zinping. Joe must remember that Xi (Shee) is his Chinese counterpart's surname and Zinping his first given name. They do it the other way around in China. I hope he remembers. If he starts the dialogue, "Now look here, Xi..." dear old smiley Zinping might not take too kindly to the abrupt use of his surname. But I expect it will be all right because each leader will no doubt refer to each other as Mr President. Always the safest. If they get chummy - though unlikely - they might revert to Joe and Zinping. Strangely, the vibes seem to be pretty good. John Kerry, Biden's climate csar, has announced a deal with the Chinese to go it together on pushing for climate action which was quite a surprise seeing as how Xi didn't turn up for the Glasgow COP26. But that's a good sign at least for the Monday summit. And it would be terrific if Joe and Zinping could find a formula of words that lowered the temperature somewhat (climate temperature and every other sort of temperature). Tension has been building up, particularly over the South China Sea and Taiwan and all that fuss about Beijing's launching of a hypersonic glider vehicle in orbit around the globe. But these two leaders need to get on. The world is too complex and filled with so many dangers that we can do without having Biden and Xi at each other's throats. Some nice soft selling please on Monday so we can all sleep better at night. The trouble is Joe is only going to be president for a limited period whereas Zinping is waiting to be confirmed as president for life, so he has time on his side. But even so, if he wants to build China into a military and economic superpower by 2049, he would be wise to get on with it without acting the big bully in Indo-China and making the West think he is prepared to fight a war. Cool down Xi and you'll find Biden quite a decent companion.