Putin ponders invasion

Two aspects of the Russian troop build-up along the Ukrainian border have raised specific alarm in Washington and in Nato capitals about President Putin’s suspected plans for an invasion. These are the extensive deployment on the border of Russia’s combat-ready battalion tactical groups - Moscow’s “shock troops”- and the recent arrival of all the back-up needed for a medium-term military intervention, including medical field hospital units, long fuel-supply lines and other logistical support. While the total number of troops varies from 94,000 claimed by the Kyiv government to 70,000 estimated by the Pentagon, the Kremlin has the capacity rapidly to increase that to 175,000, a figure predicted by US intelligence. This assessment is partly based on Russia’s conventional military warfare doctrine which is heavily focused on the deployment and use of battalion tactical groups (BTGs), designed to be ready for intervention in an emergency at 60-minutes’ notice. Each BTG is a self-contained group consisting of 800-900 combat soldiers plus tanks, artillery, anti-tank missiles, reconnaissance, engineers and rear-support platoons, bringing the size of the force to more than 1,500 personnel. Five years ago there were 66 BTGs. Today there are 168, Sergey Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, revealed in August. These shock troops linked up effectively with local paramilitary proxy units in Ukraine during the previous incursion of 2013-2015. There are currently 50 BTGs deployed on the border with Ukraine. Even the best Kremlinologists can only guess what is in Putin’s mind. But it would seem the Russian leader might have three aims, outside of an actual invasion: to rehearse Russia’s ability and capacity to cross the border and hold large swathes of territory in Ukraine at short notice; to warn off Nato from ever allowing Ukraine to become a member of the western alliance; and to test President Biden’s nerve. If Putin is prepared to take the gamble of ordering an invasion force into Ukraine, timing will be crucial. In January the flat terrain in south-eastern Ukraine will be frozen, ideal for tank movements. He will also need more troops, potentially doubling the number of BTGs to 100. So other BTGs currently on alert in army brigade garrisons would have to be transported by road and rail to join the combat groups already assembled. Biden and Nato would then know from US satellite pictures that Putin had finally made up his mind to invade and face the consequences.