Putin playing the long game

Will Russia invade Ukraine or is it all a massive bluff to force Joe Biden to make concessions, ie to get Biden to agree to drop the offer of Nato membership to Ukraine which was first mentioned 13 years ago as a future possibility. Since then Ukraine has become more Washington-orientated than Moscow-partnered. Putin cannot endure the thought that Ukraine, once a mighty part of the Soviet empire, could sign up to both Nato and the EU. So the mass deployment of troops and armour and artillery on the border with Ukraine is Putin's way of saying, "if you don't back off from the Ukraine/Nato membership thing, then I'm going to seize the country and prevent Kyiv from ever going western". It's trucky for Biden because he wants to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine yet at the same time he doesn't want to give in to Putin's blackmail. The very young-looking prime minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas (44), has said in an interview that she doesn't think Putin has any right to dictate what Ukraine should or shouldn't do and if the Kyiv government wants to join Nato and the EU then they should be allowed to do so. She's right but unfortunately the wider global political picture is more complex than that. Putin is playing the long game with his threats and blackmail and will probably keep his army ranged against the Ukrainians until he gets something from Biden which will satisfy his demands that Ukraine remains under Moscow's wing. I fear a fudge coming. Biden will offer something to keep Putin happy and then claim US diplomacy saved Ukraine from invasion. But fudges are generally indistinguishable from back-down concessions and it's likely Putin will come out the winner of this diplomatic brinkmanship, without firing a shot.