Trump says he will be arrested when he chooses!

Trump seems to be in charge of when the prosecution can take action against him. It says so much about the former president. He still has White House in his head and heart. As soon as he was indicted by the grand jury yesterday on charges we have no details about as yet he and his battery of lawyers made it clear the Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg could not insist on him handing himself over at some point today. No way, said Trump, I'll do it on Tuesday and not a day earlier. What a farce. If there's an indictment surely the prosecuting authority has the right to dictate when the indicted personage sbould be detained and fingerprinted. But not with the former president of the United States. He says what goes. He is heavily involved in having parties at his residence in Mar-a-Lago right now, so Bragg can wait. Ha! This is what happens when a former president gets indicted. It has never been done before so poor old Bragg who is going to have a nightmare time for the next few months has litle choice but to go along with it. Trump can always say it's a matter of security, ie when his Secret Service detail can arrange everything. It's being claimed that special arrangements will be offered, like Trump sneaking through the back door of the district attorney's office in Manhattan to avoid the reporters and cameras. What!! Trump will march through the front door surely to get maximum publicity. This is Trump, not some down-at-heal low-grade politician caught with his fingers in the till. So from now on the Big Story in the US is going to be Trump Trump Trump. Just what he wants. Thanks to Bragg, the former president is marching steadily towards the White House sunset.

When will western tanks start to make a difference in Ukraine?

Ukraine has received more than 1,000 tanks from friendly nations since the war began but the deployment of tanks on the battlefield is not going to make a major difference for the Kyiv government until the US Abrams, German Leopards and British Challengers start to be used en masse against the strongest Russian defences. It has been a long time coming and it's not happening yet because the Ukrainians are still training on the Leopards and Challengers, and the Abrams M1A1s won't arrive till the autumn. But if the much-awaited spring counter-offensive by Ukraine is to succeed, these more advanced tanks will need to be in the forefront of the attack. The offensive may have to be delayed. They will need all the tanks promised to be ready for operations but that moment has not arrived. Meanwhile, fortunately for the tough Ukrainian soldiers currently fighting for the survival of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, the Russians are proving incapable of mounting any sort of decisive, territory-grabbing operation. The war of attrition is being fought in yards, not square miles. The Wagner Group mercenaries, Putin's private army of prison-released convicts, have failed to achieve what they thought would be a total surrender of the city. The Ukrainian defenders have refused to give in and have driven the Russians into their trenches and ditches. The slaughter toll has been unimaginable on both sides. But the good news for President Zelensky and his campaign to drive the invasion force out of the country is that his soldiers are not in the mood for surrender. They are literally prepared to fight to the death. In Bakhmut it's a noble and terrifying last stand. So if Bakhmut is not taken by the Russians, it will a good omen for when the Ukrainian counter-offensive begins. And with those western tanks, Zelensky's soldiers will have even more confidence that they can beat the Russians.

A hypersonic hiccup for the US Air Force

A key multi-million dollar American hypersonic missile project looks doomed after another unsuccessful flight test. At a time when Russia has been firing hypersonic missiles against Ukraine, the setback for the US military was confirmed by Frank Kendall, the Pentagon’s air force secretary. The air-launched rapid response weapon (ARRW), launched from a B-52H strategic bomber and capable of reaching in excess of Mach 5 - five times the speed of sound – was intended to be the US Air Force’s primary hypersonic weapon. However, following the failed test last week, Kendall indicated ARRW’s fate might be sealed and research efforts would be switched to a second “more promising” programme called hypersonic attack cruise missile (HACM). “We see a definite role for the HACM concept. It’s compatible with more of our aircraft, and it will give us more combat capability overall. So we’re more committed to HACM at this point in time than we are to ARRW,” he told the House appropriations defence subcommittee. Hypersonic missiles which could ultimately reach speeds of up to Mach 20 have generated an intensive arms race between the US, Russia and China. Flying faster than a mile a second and manoeuvring throughout the flight, hypersonic missiles test the limits of weapons development. Russia is the first of the rival great powers to deploy an operational system. The Kinzhal hypersonic missile was first used in combat against Ukraine on March 19 last year. It was unveiled by President Putin five years ago. The Pentagon’s ARRW missile potentially has greater capability than the Kinzhal. In December, a full assessment of ARRW was carried out and the results were optimistic, despite initial test failures. In the recently released defence budget for 2024, the air force requested $150 million to continue development. But if the next planned tests fail, the programme may be scrapped. The budget for the alternative HACM system allows for $380 million to be spent on development in 2024. HACM is a scramjet-powered hypersonic air-launched cruise missile which will be fitted initially to the F-15E Strike Eagle fighter aircraft. Assuming flight tests go well, the HACM capability could be operational by 2027. The US Army and US Navy are working together to produce a long-range hypersonic missile. The navy version will be put on the Zumwalt-class guided-missile destroyer.

Does Biden want to see Russia defeated in Ukraine?

The weapons supplied by the US and Nato allies to Ukraine have grown in sophistication and capability since the Russian invasion 13 months ago. President Biden’s policy throughout has been driven by the need to avoid the risk of the war escalating into a regional conflict or worse still, a direct confrontation between Russia and Nato. “The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a strategic failure but we’re dealing here with a nuclear power and we have to take that into account,” a senior US administration official said. The statement by President Putin at the weekend that he proposed to deploy tactical air-launched nuclear weapons to Belarus, 250 miles flight time to Kyiv, underscored the potential dangers ahead. However, despite alarming nuclear threats by Moscow, Nato has become bolder. The escalation threshold has been raised significantly, suggesting Washington is prepared to call Putin’s bluff. As Ukraine demanded longer range rockets, advanced tanks, modern air-defence systems and fighter aircraft, the alliance acquiesced, albeit in a measured and, in Kyiv’s eyes, protracted manner. More than $32 billion of arms have been supplied by the US alone since February 24 last year. The most potent was the high mobility artillery rocket system (Himars) which doubled the range for shelling Russian targets. The US-dominated coalition of 54 countries has delivered or pledged more than 1,000 tanks and other armoured vehicles, 800 howitsers, 50 advanced multiple launch rocket systems and two million artillery shells. The key questions now are: has the alliance’s end-game changed? Have the military objectives become more ambitious? The publicly stated objective is not the defeat of Russia per se. The strategy, outlined on numerous occasions by Biden is to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression, and to make sure that Kyiv is in as strong a position as possible, militarily, when the time arrives for a negotiated settlement. That strategy now seems to have a tougher edge to it. “We want to see Ukraine win and retain the entirety of their territory,” the senior US administration official said. “The aim is to ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence are secured and that would mean the recovery of territory occupied by the Russians. If the Russians withdraw that would be seen as a defeat and that would be welcome,” the official said. “Realistically, this is not going to happen [in the near future]. We’ve seen new horrific strikes against the Ukrainian people and Russia is showing no interest in negotiations. So our position is that we will continue to do everything we can to help Ukraine survive as an independent, democratic country,” the official said. By the autumn, the Ukrainian army will have US Abrams M1A1 tanks to go with their German Leopards and British Challengers, as well as a fully operational Patriot anti-missile battery capable of shooting down Russian ballistic and cruise missiles. The Ukrainian air force won’t have US F-16s because Washington is still worried about crossing the escalation line. But it will have more MiG-29s sent by Poland and Slovakia and perhaps the US will allow other Nato members to supply F-16s. This has yet to be decided. This accumulation of advanced western weapons on the battlefield, alongside Russia’s continuing struggle to seize more territory and its appalling toll of dead and wounded could be the decisive factors that bring this war to an end. However, there is one question no one in the West can answer: if Russian troops withdraw in humiliating defeat to their home garrisons what would Putin do next?

Netanyahu faces huge climbdown or chaos

With his sacked defence minister and the president of Israel and President Biden calling for him to stop hurling the country imto chaos with his wild anti-judges legislation, Binyamin Netanyahu has reached a point where he will surely have to back down. Big time. But if he does and shelves or scraps the planned legislation to neuter the Israeli supreme court, will he survive politically? The problem for Netanyahu is that he faces corruption charges from way back and this is at the front of his mind as he tries to try to immasculate the judges. He is digging himself into a hole from which there will be no means of extraction. He has been leader of Israel for so long, off and on, that the country has become synonymous with his style of tough politics, both at home and abroad. But his coalition bedfellows are much much more extreme than he is and they are the driving force behind the confrontation that has caused such massive disruption throughout Israel. Washington will be worried for a number of reasons. Israel is an important ally. Sharing the same democratic values is part of that partnership. But with this proposed legislation, Netanyahu's government is giving itself greater power and ensuring weaker accountability. Israel is a tiny country and right now its towns and cities are packed with hundreds of thousands of demonstrators. They say they are fighting for democracy. Supressing the protesters will not only lead to increased violence but will also damage Israel's reputation and image around the world. Israel's enemies will be watching with pleasure.

Putin's tactical nuke move raises the stakes

It didn't take long for Putin to turn to Russia's estimated 2,000 tactical nukes to further raise the stakes in the Ukraine war. Previously he had warned the West that he could use these weapons if pushed but now he has announced he is going to deploy some of them to Belarus, the only country of the former Soviet Union that actually still has amicable relations with Moscow. Belarus of course is ruled by an autocrat who makes even Putin look less like a Mafia chief. So using Belarus to house nuclear weapons is probably the most unstable thing Putin has done since he sent his troops over the border into Ukraine. Bizarrely Putin is saying he has been forced into this deployment to counter the threat posed by the depleted uranium shells the UK is planning to send to Ukraine along with Challenger 2 tanks. Even schoolboy chemists know this argument is facile. Depleted uranium-tipped shells can pierce heavily armoured tanks better than normal armour. But they can hardly be classed as nuclear weapons as Putin seems to be implying. But confirmation from the UK that these sort of shells will be sent to Ukraine has given Putin what he believes is just cause for retaliating with the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. To be honest he didn't need an excuse, he was probably always going to send nukes to Belarus because its leader Alexander Lukashenko is desperate to curry favour with Putin and was happy to go along with the construction of hangars and storage sites for these weapons. The world is getting more dangerous by the day.

Will Macron back down?

So far Emmanuel Macron has stuck to his guns. He pledged to increase the retirement age for France from 62 and 64 and he has done it. Not by a democratically approved vote in parliament but by presidential edict. That was surely his mistake. While every other nation in Europe must be gazing in a perplexed way at the French and their bizarre attitude to work, the millions of protesters would have been less violent and possibly even compliant if Macron had put his retirement reform proposal to parliament. If he had lost, that would have been democracy for you. We, the Brits, left the EU after the vote in parliament went the wrong way!! If Macron had won then he could have gone ahead with the backing of parliament and my guess is the violent protests would eventually have come to an end. But he ignored parliament and made it a fait accompli. No wonder those who hate him believe he is trying to become a new stye of emperor instead of just a plain and ordinary president. The fancy watch which he removed surrepticiously from his wrist during a tv interview was, in their view, another example of a president trying to hide his wealth. It was a pretty stupid move which made headlines everywhere. The protesters are unlikely to go away. Tourism in Paris will drop dramatically and the country will go to the chiens unless Macron perhaps meets the demonstrators halfway. Perhaps he could ofer to increase the retirement age in stages. From 62 to 63 for the next two years and from 63 to 64 after that. But somehow I expect Emperor Macron is dead set on staying firm with his policy, never mind the chaos. Meanwhile, King Charles III has been advised to delay his state visit and any other foreign leader in the diary for a session in the Lycee is also likely to cancel their trip. Doom and humiliation for the French president.