The Trump and Vance show

JD Vance has come full circle and is now nearly at the top of the tree. From a fervent Never Trumper he is today a fervent Always Trumper. The road to Damascus is heavily crowded with people like Vance who see the light or in his case sees which way the political wind is blowing and jumps ship to the winner-takes-all leader. There's not much point in being an ambitious Republican politician and not being a Trumper. Vance realised this and is now so MAGA-orientated he is almost even more Trump than Trump. This, of course, is what Trump wants. He wants to do his four years in the White House and then hand over to somneone who will pledge to continue the MAGA ideology. Vance was the only short-list candidate who could guarantee that. So now it's the Trump-Vance show heading remorselessly towards the White House in November. Why Vance calls himself JD Vance is a mystery but he obviously likes it. But JD stands for James David, two perfectly good and ordinary names, so why stick with the initials? I bet it annoys Trump. He didn't like Vance's beard when he was considering his running-mate candidates. But Vance didn't shave it off and still calls himself JD. The Biden-Kamala Harris combination looks pretty mild and bland compared with these two. The election is a done deal!

How the Democratic election campaign has now been trumped

The biggest campaign cry for President Joe Biden and the Democratic party had little to do with the president's achievements but everything to do with stopping Donald Trump from entering the White House and destroying America's democracy and democratic values. It was a campaign involving scare tactics, warning the American people about the dangers of having someone like Trump in charge. All that has now gone and the Biden campaign has not much left to shout about. Trump survived an assassination attempt and is now calling for unity in the country. Trump wants to unify the country!!! He loves everyone. In his nomination speech in Milwaukee today he will sound a very different person. He has already revealed he has thrown out his planned speech which would have targeted Biden in highly personal terms. Now it's all about unity although I have no doubt he will claim to be the only one capable of unifying the country, difficult though that is to envisage. The shooting by a deranged 20-year-old has finally scuppered Biden's chances of reelection because Trump is a changed man. He was so close to a brutal death but survived and he now thinks that the miracle, God-delivered or not, was a true sign that he is the chosen one for the Whote House. How can Biden fight against that? The question is, will the assassination attempt against Trump force the Democrats to line up behind Biden and stop all the internal doubts and angst or will it persuade them that the only way they can beat Trump now is to have a much younger candidate who can at least give Trump a run for his money? In reality, a change in candidate now, after the shooting, would be a waste of time. Better to stick with Biden and hope for the best that some of the shooting stardust falls away from Trump. But I'm afraid it won't. The shooting and that brilliant Associated Newspapers picture of him with his fist raised and the American flag above him will carry him all the way to the White House.

Donald Trump will now become president again

There is now a new defining image in the 2024 presidential election - a bloodied Donald Trump risng up with his fist pumped after the assassination attempt. The previous defining image of Trump, grim-looking, in the Manhattan courtoom at his trial on business fraud charges, will be cast to one side. Now it's Trump, the survivor, Trump the fighter, Trump, the man who will make the US even greater. Yes, the assasination attempt was shocking, not least the extraordinary fact that despite all the Secret Service and police and counter-attack combbat squads there to protect him at his rally, no one appears to have checked out the rooftop 200 yards away which provided the would-be assassin with a perfect vantage point for his Armelite sniper rifle. But Trump miraculously survived and by getting up and shouting "fight" to his adoring and shocked fans, before being swept away by his secret service detail, that image and cry will end all hope of Joe Bieden winning a second term in the White Office. The comparisons between the two men will now be even starker: the faltering, bumbling Biden, and the bold and bloodied Trump. It's a brutal fact but this sort of shocking incident will sweep Trump back into the Oval Office.

Viktor Orban is now Trump's right- hand man

Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orban basically does he wants on the world stage, never mind that he has responsibilities as a leader in the European Union and in Nato. And now he is going around promising that his friend Donald Trump is going to solve the war in Ukraine when he becomes president which is a bit like kicking President Joe Biden in the nether regions. Such loyalty. Orban who struts the world stage like a buffalo in a Chinese tea shop. has been to see other friends, Vladimir Putin where they hugged, Xi Zinping (less amorous) and then on to Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort residence where I am sure a bear hug took place. Anyway out he came all suffused with Trumpery and pronouced to the world that Trump was the man to end the war in Ukraine, never mind that he actually might lose the election in November. I know it's getting less and less likely but even so. So Orban has been convinced by Trump that his secret plan - to give Russia all the territory it has seized and a promise that Ukraine will never join Nato (just guessing but it must be something lIke this) will bring the shooting and casualties to an abrupt halt. It doesn't seem as if President Zelensky will have a part to play in this giveaway victory for Putin. So, well done, Prime Minister Orban, you have just undermined Biden by assuming Trump will win in November, and carved out a future for Ukraine that it definitely does not want.

George Clooney should stick to Hollywood stuff

Look, I'm a great fan of George Clooney. He is a seriously cool guy and most of his films are brilliant. But why is it that in the United States when a Hollywood film star suggests the president should step down everyone goes oh my goodness, if George Clooney says Joe Biden should go into retirement then we should all listen. Praise the Lord for Hollywood. This is Cloonacy. Why would the whole of America and, by the way, all the serious papers, especially The New York Times, bow down to Clooney's advice and say Biden is finished. He must be because Clooney says so. It's madness. It would be like Michael Caine informing the world that in his view the prime minister of Great Britain should step down because he, Caine, is a film star and therefore has special knowledge and a special position in society. Sorry, it's ridiculous. Michael Caine would never do such a thing. So why does Clooney think he has the right to stir the pot against Biden and be listened to? Anyway, the fact is, the Clooney statement, in an article in The New York Times (of course) is big news and it might just tip the scales against poor old Joe. Donald Trump must be measuring the curtains in the White House already.

The eight Nato nations failing to make the spending grade

Much has been made of the fact that 23 out of the 31 member nations of Nato are now on line for spending the required two per cent of GDP on defence. This has been described as a wonderfully encouraging achievement at the Nato summit in Washington. But this two per cent obligation has been a fixture of Nato membership for so long it seems amazing that there are still eight countries who have failed, in some cases, quite miserably, to reach that target. Who are they: Croatia on 1.8 per cent, so getting there slowly, Portugal on 1.55 per cent, Italy on 1.49 per cent, Canada on 1.3 per cent, Belgium on 1.3 per cent, Luxembourg on 1.2 per cent, Slovenia on 1.29 per cent and Spain on 1.28 per cent. Apart from Creoatia they have a long way to go but are they planning to spend more over the next year or so? There seem to be no guarantees. Actually the Nato stipulation now is "at least two per cent". So they are a long way off. Good luck to them if Donald Trump becomes president. I see that Rishi Sunak's pledge to spend 2.5 per cent on defence has already been pushed to one side by the new prime minister, Keir Starmer. The Labour leader says he will only spend that much on defence when there's proper growth in the economy to allow for it, which, I guess, seems reasonable.

Nato unity is in disarray

Vladimir Putin must be chortling in his office in the Kremlin. Nato celebrating 75 years of unity at its summit in Washington tomorrow and yet everywhere he looks the alliance's togetherness is marked by dissension, concern for the future and downright disloyalty. Putin has just been having a nice little chat with Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, hosting him at the Kremlin, literally a couple of days before Orban is due in Washington to represent his country at the alliance's summit. What does he think he is playing at? Nobody is supposed to talk, let alone cosy up to, the Russian president because of his brutal war in Ukraine. It's hard enough having President Erdogan of Turkey at the summit because he doen't seem to know whether he wants to stick with his western pals or turn eastwards. He, too, has a relationship going with Putin and is buying Russian air defence systems. The war in Ukraine HAS unified Nato in its support for Kyiv but there are so many voices now within the alliance, not just Orban's, urging ways to end the war which will inevitably mean Putin holding onto parts of Ukraine his troops have seized. But the one thing Nato is very good at his celebrating anniversaries and no doubt the communique that will be drafted will be full of praise and admiration for a defensive alliance which has helped to prevent war in Europe for three-quarters of a century. It's no mean feat.