Trump's options for Iran

President Trump is said to be less bullish about the prospect of a strike on Iran than he was during its summer war with Israel. Over the last few days, however, he has been briefed on the options available to make good on his promise to come to the aid of the protesters facing a bloody crackdown from the regime. "He means what he says," explained the White House spokeswoman, Anna Kelly. Sources suggest that Trump's inner circle, including Marco Rubio, JD Vance and intelligence officials are presenting the president with options "without preference". But with US forces withdrawing from bases in the Middle East, there is growing certainty that he will act. The decision to strike could come down to an effective "coin flip" between the options available, a source told The Washington Post on Wednesday. There is pressure at home to reckon with, too. Many of Trump's Maga supporters do not favour entanglement in a foreign conflict, least of all in the Middle East. "We don’t care about making Iran great again," said Trump's advisor Steve Bannon. More than half of US adults, meanwhile, believe Trump has “gone too far” in using the US military to intervene in other countries, according to an AP-NORC poll. The scenarios currently being considered include military action, but also cyberattacks on the Iranian government’s infrastructure. Trump has a number of options, then, to make good on his promise that "help is on its way" for Iranians. These are the most likely. MILITARY OPTION. As yet, there is no obvious sign of a switch of US military assets to focus on the new crisis. The Middle East region comes under US Central Command which has given no confirmation of new orders from the White House. However, one of the military options already confirmed by the White House is airstrikes on key targets in Iran. The US has multiple choices for carrying out such attacks, not least B-2 Spirit bombers located at Whiteman air force base in Missouri. The B-2’s long-range capability, with or without midair refuelling, provides Trump with the most devastating airborne conventional weapon system in the world. B-2s took part in the attacks on Iran’s main nuclear sites in June, dropping 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) on Fordo and Natanz uranium-enrichment facilities in Operation Midnight Hammer, without being detected by Iranian radars. While it’s unlikely the Pentagon would want to use up more of the limited supply of 30,000lb bunker-busting bombs, B-2s from Missouri, or potentially from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire if they were to be transferred to the UK, could be armed with the highly effective JDAMs (Joint Direct Attack Munitions). The question needs to be asked: what would airstrikes achieve in terms of bringing the Iranian regime’s slaughter of protesters to an end; and what regional repercussions could follow? With Iran’s ability to detect incoming aircraft or missiles dramatically degraded by Israeli air attacks in 2024 that destroyed many of Tehran’s advanced Russian S-300 air defense systems, the most obvious targets would include the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, based in Tehran, and the network of command bunkers and communication sites which coordinate the IRGC’s military action against the protesters. Trump has also hinted in the past that he might decide to target the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who normally resides in the so-called Leadership House in Tehran’s district 11, although reports have suggested he has moved for his safety to an underground bunker in the northeast of the city. During the US strikes in June, Trump said he knew where Khamenei was hiding but held off from targeting him, “at least for now”. Any choice of target for airstrikes is bound to provoke retaliation against the 2,500 US troops based in Iraq or the 10,000 military personnel at Al Udeid airbase in Qatar. Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has warned that Iran is ready for war with the US. Iran launched missiles against the Qatar base in June following the US strikes on nuclear facilities. A former senior US defence official highlighted one other possible option. “Seizing oil tankers bound from Iran could trigger a collapse of Iran’s economy. But it would take time, perhaps months.” CYBER OPTION. In collaboration with Israel the US has demonstrated offensive cyber capability to target Iran. In 2009, for example, a computer worm codenamed Stuxnet was inserted into the country's gas centrifuge system, vital for enriching uranium for a nuclear weapon, causing extensive damage. However, in the context of the current wave of protests, cyber operations, run by US Cyber Command, could be used to target Iran’s propaganda communications networks and the state-run media. “Cyber operations could also be targeted at Iran’s critical infrastructure, such as electrical power, energy pipelines and transportation systems,” the former US defence official said. Iran has cut off phone services and the internet to disrupt the ability of protest leaders to coordinate demonstrations. Trump has been in discussions with Elon Musk to get him to replace the internet system with the help of his Starlink satellite system. ESPIONAGE OPTION. The CIA and Israel’s Mossad intelligence service have “smuggling routes” into Iran which have been used in the past, particularly by Israeli agents. But covert espionage missions would be the most dangerous option because of the risk of being exposed. Mossad has a history of successful targeted assassinations against Iranian nuclear scientists. The US, under Trump in his first term, tracked and killed Qassem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force in a drone attack outside Baghdad airport in Iraq on January 3, 2020. It was a joint CIA and special operations mission. Covert missions inside Iran would take months to plan. The Mossad, however, has claimed in recent days that its agents are among the demonstrators on the streets, writing in Farsi on social media: “Go out together into the streets. The time has come. We are with you. Not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.” DIPLOMACY OPTION. The White House says Iranian officials have been in touch to try and start negotiations but then, on Tuesday, Trump said he would no longer be discussing the crisis with representatives of Tehran amid the growing violence. “Given where we are at this point, I don’t see diplomacy having any more value than it would have in 1956 during the Hungarian uprising [the rebellion against Soviet control which led to Moscow sending in tanks to crush the protests],” the former defence official said. With Iran, however, there is alway the nuclear card. There is evidence that the Iranian authorities are attempting to repair and rebuild the damaged uranium-enrichment plants hit by the US B-2 bombers. Using the potential leverage of future US strikes on the key facilities, Trump could put maximum pressure on the Tehran regime finally to give up its suspected clandestine nuclear weapons programme in return for a partial lifting of sanctions. This could help to revive the economy and bring an end to the murderous confrontation between protesters and security authorities across the country. Trump has already imposed 25 per cent tariffs on all countries trading with Iran. But even tighter sanctions, effectively destroying the economy, would run the risk of accelerating the toll of deaths. Unless, of course, Trump’s overarching plan is not just to stop the killings but to engineer regime-change in which case all the above options could be deployed. BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER AGENT REDRUTH WHICH HAS A STRONG RUSSIAN THEME. AMAZON, WATERSTONES AND ROWANVALE BOOKS