Ukraine needs Patriots

Ukraine has survived more than three years of Vladimir Putin’s war because of massive western arms supplies, an appreciation and exploitation of Russian military weaknesses, audacious special forces missions and an extraordinarily successful development of home-grown drones. All these ingredients have helped Kyiv hold off the Russian forces, saved Volodymyr Zelensky from early capitulation and prevented Putin from marching further into Europe. An achievement by any standards of modern warfare. However, the balance of power between Russia and Ukraine, a very tenuous concept over the last three years as Putin turned to hypersonic weaponry to strike at Ukrainian cities, depended on the continuous arms flow from the US and Europe, particularly from the Pentagon. Now, the hierarchy at the Pentagon has decided that the weapons stocks held for the US armed forces have been reduced to such a dangerous level as a result of the generous handover of weapons to the Kyiv government, that key systems are being withheld to give the American defence department a chance to recoup its arsenals to ensure full readiness for war whenever and wherever it may occur. While the checking of inventories is a vital responsibility for the Pentagon chiefs, the decision to suspend some of the weapons’ deliveries to Ukraine couldn’t have happened at a worst time. Russia has amassed 50,000 troops along Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast in the north, and overnight on Sunday Moscow launched 477 drones and 60 missiles, targeting seven Ukrainian towns and cities, in the largest Russian attack of the war so far. In Ukraine the most desirable and most in-demand weapon to protect the country from Russian air attacks is the US Patriot missile system. Ukraine has about eight batteries of Patriots, each of which can consist of between six and eight launchers with stocks of PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptors. Zelensky has appealed for a total of 25 Patriot launchers to provide an integrated air defence system for Ukraine. Patriot, more than any other air defence system, has shot down hundreds if not thousands, of Russian drones and missiles, preventing mass destruction in the country’s major towns. However, after a thorough weapons count in US arms stocks, the Pentagon has now reportedly halted deliveries of PAC-3 interceptors to Kyiv, along with munitions fired by the US Army’s High Mobility Rocket System (HIMARS) and the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), as well as 155mm artillery rounds, portable Stinger anti-airweapons and Hellfire anti-tank missiles. The decision to suspend deliveries of these vital weapons was made after an investigation of US munition stockpiles ordered by Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s powerful policy chief. There have been concerns ever since the war in Ukraine began and the Biden administration started sending US weapons to Ukraine to defend against the Russian invaders, that American armed forces’ munitions stocks could run low. These concerns have intensified since Donald Trump came to power, especially after the US involvement in attacks on Iran and the perceived growing threat from Beijing to use military force to seize Taiwan by 2027. “This decision [to halt some weapons for Ukraine] was made to put America’s interests first,” Anna Kelly, deputy White House press secretary, said., adding, with potential adversaries in mind: “The strength of the United States armed forces remains unquestioned – just ask Iran.” The America First justification for the suspension of key weapons for Ukraine will have come as no surprise to America’s allies in Europe, although every attempt has been made recently to woo the US president to persuade him to maintain military support for Kyiv as part of an alliance-wide effort to stop Putin’s aggression. The wooing of Trump was epitomised by the extraordinary comment made by Mark Rutte, Nato secretary-general, when he referred to the president as the “daddy” trying to intervene between two spoilt children, a reference to the breaches of the ceasefire announced by Trump between Iran and Israel after twelve days of attacks. Europe, as well as Ukraine, depend on the good will and superpower support of the United States, and the announcement of the suspension to Kyiv of key equipment, especially the Patriots, will have rocked the alliance. The Patriot missile system has become the de riguer weapon. Everyone wants it. Ukraine is on a long list of customers and has had to compete with Israel, among others, for the fastest deliveries. The largest single Patriot engagement in US military history took place in Qatar last month when Iran launched a barrage of missiles at the US base at al-Udeid in Qatar. All were shot down. Any shortages of Patriot interceptors in the Ukrainian armoury will increase the risk of death and destruction in the country’s towns and cities, as Putin continues to launch missile strikes on civilian areas.