Does Hamas want a ceasefire?

The president of Egypt has come up with the most modest of ceasefire proposals to try and generate new momentum to end the war in Gaza and bring the remaining 101 Israeli hostages home. Following the killing by Israeli soldiers of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza, on 16 October, there was a degree of optimism, especially in Washington, that a ceasefire and diplomatic solution to the war in Gaza might be on the cards. The Biden administration hoped the death of Sinwar, an ideological opponent to all the most recent ceasefire attempts, would unblock the peace-making impasse. But Hamas survivors, hunkered down in their tunnels and bunkers beneath Gaza, appeared incapable, let alone interested, in making any sort of deal. Now President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has proposed a 48-hour ceasefire to facilitate the release of just four Israeli hostages in exchange for an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners detained by Israel. The Egyptian leader's objective is for the two-day truce to then lead to a longer-term ceasefire. He has suggested a ten-day negotiating period following the release of the four hostages. His proposal has coincided with the arrival in Doha, capital of Qatar, of the heads of the CIA and Mossad for renewed talks for a ceasefire/hostage-release framework. The deliberate limitations of the el-Sisi plan underline how challenging it has been for any of the peace negotiators to persuade Hamas, and Israel, to consider compromise. No Hamas representatives will attend the meeting in Doha between Qatar's prime minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, David Barnea, Mossad chief, and Bill Burns. CIA director. Egypt which was also represented has been intimately involved behind the scenes and last week hosted a group of Hamas delegates to guage their thoughts on el-Sisi's proposal and future negotiations. Is Hamas and its diminished leadership ready for a ceasefire deal that will undercut the red lines set in stone by Sinwar: an immediate end to the war and the total withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza in exchange for more hostage releases? Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, has his own red lines but they read very differently. He wants Hamas to lay down tits arms and surrender, and to free all the hostages, alive or dead. At this point there would appear to be no room for compromise on either side. But the dynamics of the war in Gaza have changed dramatically. Hamas is crushed, albeit with some resistance still evident, Hezbollah, its unfailing supporter, has suffered near-terminal blows to its leadership hierarchy from Israeli assassination airstrikes in Lebanon; and Iran, Machiavellian orchestrator of all things turbulent in the Middle East and Israel’s arch enemy, has learned on two separate occasions in the last six months that it lacks the capability to protect its military sites – and thus, potentially, its nuclear facilities – from Israeli long-range ballistic-missile airstrikes. However, will these critical setbacks for Iran and its proxy forces lead to a shift in strategy on the part of the so-called Tehran-led axis of resistance, offering hope of a ceasefire deal in both Gaza and Lebanon, or will it all spiral into an even more dangerous period in which the United States will be dragged into a full-scale regional war? It is these two alternative scenarios which are currently driving the key external players in this Middle East conflict – the US, Egypt and Qatar – to find a new formula that will raise prospects for an end to the fighting, or at least the release of all the remaining hostages. Ceasefire hopes have come and gone over the last 12 months since the Hamas atrocities committed in southern Israel on 7 October last year. In between the negotiations, mostly abortive, the casualty toll in both Gaza and Lebanon has continued to rise relentlessly., as Israel has pressed on with its mission, ordered by Netanyahu, to destroy Hamas and to deal a fatal blow to Hezbollah. Washington still wants a deal that will embrace far more than the release of hostages and a long-term ceasefire. Washington’s framework for peace in the Middle East includes the normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, after Israel’s retaliatory airstrikes on Iran on Saturday, Saudi Arabia put out a robust statement, condemning the attacks which it said constituted a “serious violation of Iran’s territory and contradicts established international norms and laws”. Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, who was in the Middle East last week, made it clear that the grand vision of a more comprehensive peace framework for the region remained a priority for Washington. If Kamala Harris wins the election next week, it is presumed she would wish to continue pursuing this strategic objective. Meanwhile, the immediate efforts are focusing on trying to persuade all parties to agree a ceasefire., however short-lived. There hasn’t been a ceasefire in Gaza since November when fighting stopped for seven days during which 105 hostages were freed in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. There was also a brief pause in fighting in June along a road in southern Gaza to allow for United Nations food trucks to enter safely. But it wasn’t a ceasefire. Fighting carried on elsewhere. For President Biden and his foreign policy legacy, any sort of ceasefire that raises hopes of a better and more far-reaching deal in the future, will be welcome news. He has less than three months left of his presidency, and the possibility of his successor being Donald Trump, not his vice president.