Tuesday 19 December 2023

The polls on Biden are mostly dire

It's fairly traditional for the incumbent president of the United States to experience poor polling mid-stream and/or as the next election approaches. But Joe Biden is getting really bad poll results, suggesting that he is not only running behind Donald Trump but also, in some states, Nikki Haley who looks like she is going to grab the Number Two slot in the Republican race for the White House. Biden dismisses the polls, saying the media are not looking at all the polls, just the poor ones. But I suspect the polling figures are pretty accurate. US voters are worried about going for a president who will be into his mid-80s when he's done after a second term. But Biden has a big plus in his favour and that, bizarrely, is his age because with age comes long experience. It could be argued that Trump has the experience becasuse of hs four years in the White House, but if Trump fails to get the Republican nomination because of all the charges against him or because voters might feel he would be a dictator, not a democracy-loving leader, then the alternatives would all be far less experienced than Biden. And let's look at what might be coming in the next four-to-five years to challenge the man or woman in the White House: a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, another war in the Middle East, nuclear sabre-rattling by North Korea, upheaval in Europe as countries struggle to cope with mass illegal immigration, climate-change disasters, more aggression from President Putin, and another pandemic. Someone with huge experience in the toughest job in the world would be vital. So I guess that might mean there is hope for Biden, despite the polls. But Trump still looks an odds-on bet.

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