Saturday 19 October 2019

Will the Russians, Syrians and Turks fight Isis?

All the American troos in Syria are now so far away from their former patch in the north east that there's little they can do anymore about Isis on the ground. This is crucial because for all the US intelligence apparatus in the air, there is no substitute for intelligence gleaned from close quarters in the battlefield on the ground. The US special operations troops - Green Berets and others - had developed such close working relationships with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that a mass of intelligence was gathered every day about Isis, where they were, what they were doing, who their commanders were, what they might do next. This togetherness was a vital ingredient in the defeat of Isis. Now the US special operations troops are sitting twiddling their thumbs further south and the Kurds of the SDF are being ordered to abandon their bases and remove themselves out of the war zone. So now Isis have lost their main opponents. OK, the US can still fly bombing missions and drone strikes but targeting will be so much more difficult because the northeastern area of Syria is filling up with Turkish, Syrian regime and Russian troops. They have taken over. But will they be as devoted to destroying what's left of Isis as the Americans? Somehow I doubt it. Will they guard the prisons containing thousands of Isis fighters and make sure none of them escape, ever? Well they better, otherwise the whole campaign to destroy Isis will be turned upside down. What an appalling prospect. I don't think Isis will be able to revive their caliphate. Those days are over. But without unrelenting pressure on them, they will revive, they will reemerge. To think that we are now dependent on Russians and Vladimir Putin to be our anti-Isis-in-chief fills me with dread. The Turks will be too busy hunting down Kurds and the Syrian regime forces will be under orders from Bashar Assad to grab back as much lost territory as possible. In between all these different priorities for the big players, Isis will do their damnedest to exploit weaknesses and mistakes. It's kind of scary.

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