Sunday 20 October 2019

Can US troops fight Isis in Syria from Iraq?

It sounds like a move of desperation. Instead of bringing the 1,000 US special operations troops in Syria home - as Trump had demanded - Pentagon chiefs have come up with this idea of moving at least 700 of them from northeast Syria to Western Iraq from where they can keep an eye on Isis and mount commando raids when required. I really don't see how this is going to work. For a start, the American troops won't have their faithful Kurdish militia fighters to serve alongside as they did during the successful campaign to destroy the Isis caliphate. And if the 700 to be sent to western Iraq do pop back over the border to launch a raid against an Isis hideout, for example, how will they do this without interfering with or colliding with Turkish/Syrian/Russian troops who are now milling around all over the place in northern Syria? I can foresee dangers here of serious confliction. In the air, the US and Russia have for a long time shared a deconfliction regime over Syria under which either side about to launch an airstrike informs the other to make sure there is no miscalculation. Amazingly it has worked pretty well and the American and Russian bomber pilots have never came to blows in midair. But on the ground it would be more difficult if the US troops are based in western Iraq and come over the border for an operation. Will they have to warn the Syrians and Turks and Russians of any impending raid? That could prove disastrous. In the shifting alliances in northeastern Syria who could be trusted with such knowledge. But if the US commandos are prevented from crossing the border what is the point of having them in western Iraq at all. They are certainly not needed to support the Iraqi forces. There are already 5,000 US troops in Iraq engaged in anti-Isis operations and supporting the Iraqi government. The 700 commandos would be expected to collect intelligence of Isis movements across in Syria and then decide what to do about it. But it's going to be a major challenge. The only positive thing is that these hugely experienced commandos could watch the border for signs of Isis fighters travelling from Iraq to Syria but they are not going to get a free pass to hop over into Syria whenever they want. I doubt the Syrian regime will sanction this, the Russians think they are now in charge and even the Turks won't want US troops getting in the way. I expect it won't be long before Trump asks Mark Esper, the US defence secretary, why the hell the 1,000 troops in Syria are not boarding planes to come home.

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