Will Iran really risk rushing for a nuclear bomb?

President Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian leader, has made it clear that whatever Trump does, he intends to increase the level of enriched uranium to any grade he deems fit. So is this the first step towards rushing for nuclear bomb material or is just Tehran saying, "We have the right to enrich uranium full stop." Technically they do have the right under international law except they are NOT allowed to head towards 90 plus per cent enrichment which is the grade required for a nuclear weapon. Also, of course, Iran agreed to a limited stockpile of enriched uranium - 300 kilograms at the low-enriched level of 3.67 per cent - under the 2015 "Obama" deal. Trump's withdrawal of the US from the signatories to that deal made today's announcement from Rouhani almost inevitable. But does Tehran really want a nuclear weapon, knowing that if it does "break out" and rush for a bomb, they will get a visit from Israeli bombers and probably US B-2s carrying deep penetration guided massive bombs. I say probably re the US because the last thing Trump wants is a war, any war anywhere. He wants to be reelected in 2020 and if there's a catastrophic war going on, with Americans dying, the Democrats could walk it to the White House. As it is, Trump seems to be pushing for an early exit of US troops from Afghanistan to get a peace deal with the Taliban. A peace deal on the Taliban's terms by the sound of it! So, droppng bombs on Iranian nuclear facilities? That's a nightmare scenario for Trump and his reelection campaign. Rouhani and the rest of the Iranian regime know all of this and will no doubt be making some careful calculations. Do they see a window of opportunity to build a bomb and get away with it? But surely someone will whisper into Rouhani's ear, "Don't forget the Israelis." Bibi Netanyahu may be in political trouble back home but a successful airstrike knocking out some of Iran's nuke plants could put him back on the map. Everything is about politics, whether in Washington, Tehran or Tel Aviv. Trump has stated categorically that Iran will not be allowed to have nuclear weapons. But what does that actually mean? This is what Rouhani and co have to take into account. Meanwhile the European signatories to the 2015 deal, Britain, Germany and France, are looking a little sick. They are desperately trying to hang on to the nuclear deal, urging Tehran to stick to the agreement, pleading with the ayatollahs not to increase enriching uranium above the 3.67 per cent required for civilian nuclear power and basically attempting to thwart Trump's antagonistic approach towards Tehran. So, further calculations for the regime in Tehran. Well, Rouhani today couldn't have been clearer. He has authorised the higher enriching process to begin and the 300-kilogram limit has now been breached. Will the enriching get to 20 per cent or go further? What is the breaking point for Trump or for Netanyahu? A small step for Tehran may be a giant step for Tel Aviv.