Monday 17 December 2018

It's now no-Brexit at all or no-deal Brexit

There has suddenly been a rush of alternative Brexits suggested by ministers, former prime ministers, so-called expert commentators, and by all the monkeys in London Zoo for all I know. They range from a People's Vote for us all to decide what we want, a managed no-deal, Theresa May's Brexit deal (small hope for that), the Norway plus option, the Canada plus plus option, a renegotiated May plan etc etc. But actually, although there is a lot of enthusiasm right now for a second referendum to give the people a chance to make up their own minds - again - I believe there are now just two feasible options on the table: a no-deal Brexit, what used to be called a Hard Brexit, OR no Brexit, in other words, stay in the EU and forget what has been going on for the last 20 months. My wish and desire and hope is that the latter will be the end result and we can all go back to living our lives again. But that would be extraordinary and potentially dangerous because millions of people would feel betrayed, and disgusted, and rebellious. So I am of the opinion that whatever Brexit deal is put forward, whether it be a sightly revised or cosmetically clarified Theresa May one or some version of a Norway or Canada trade-association agreement, none of them will be acceptable to the majority of MPs in the House of Commons. So none of them will get the required approval. After all, if the Norway and Canada options were dismissed so early on in this process, why on earth should they suddenly look the real deal now, 20 months later? Norway and Canada are off the books and off the table surely! So it's no deal, "managed" or otherwise. I presume "managed" means the government actually takes every precaution to make sure a no-deal Brexit doesn't destroy the economy which would be pretty sensible. I don't know how nightmarish a no-deal will be. The government has just set aside another £2 billion to be ready for the chaos, and ministers keep on talking about the need to stockpile medicines etc. So preparations are underway. This, I'm afraid to say, is the way forward. There will be no deal. One thing, however, that could screw it up is that a huge majority of MPs have indicated they would never vote for a no-deal Brexit. Ooops! But by then there will be nothing else for them to vote for!

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