Thursday 20 September 2018

Kim Jong-un and the same old missile engine test site

It really is quite extraordinary how everyone in Washington, well in the White House, well ok actually Trump, and in South Korea are getting so excited by Kim Jong-un's announcement that he will destroy a missile engine test site and let UN inspectors in to verify it. I thought the North Korean leader had promised to do exactly that when he saw Trump for the summit in Singapore in June!! Trump came out saying how wonderful it was that his new friend Kim was going to knock down a missile engine test site. Then there were satellite images which appeared to show the North Koreans starting to destroy the missile engine test site. So, what's new? I suppose his statement that UN inspectors can pay a visit is new. But the repetition of an old promise is a clever ploy used by governments everywhere. First you make the announcement, then you make the same announcement but in a different context and then you say it all over again the following year, hoping no doubt that everyone will have forgotten what you said in the first place. It's called political mirrors. Kim seems to have learned the mirrors game. I doubt that the missile engine test site is that important. Kim probably has another two somewhere else. But his statement when meeting with the South Korean president was enough to get Trump all stirred up and he told Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, to get back to negotiating with the North Koreans. The last planned meeting was cancelled by Trump because of the bad vibes coming out of Pyongyang. So off will go Pompeo and his team of advisers, including the CIA's head of the Korean desk, with the expectation that Kim might come up with some more morsels. Pompeo has even gone so far as to predict that North Korea will be denuclearised by 2021. I will be the first in the queue to congratulate Trump and Pompeo if this happens. But beneath all the smiles and handshakes and hugs between Kim and President Moon of South Korea there is a wily brain at work. Kim doesn't want Trump to be triumphant, he wants Kim Jong-un to be triumphant. And that means he will demand huge concessions from Pompeo. I can't see Kim agreeing to a 2021 deadline to remove all the nuclear weapons he has spent so much money on developing unless the US agrees to withdraw all troops from South Korea and sign a non-aggression pact. Kim is clever. He knows that with Trump in the White House he just might get what he wants. Trump is desperate to save money and stop US troops being stationed all over the world, and removing the 28,500 troops from South Korea would save an awful lot of money. Just cancelling one joint military exercise between the US and South Korea saved $14 million. The last time Pompeo and the North Koreans got together, the secretary of state was accused of behaving like a gangster. This time I reckon Trump has told Pompeo to be real nice with Kim. Real nice.

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