Wednesday 8 August 2018

Iran and the EU versus Trump

Iran is trying to put a brave face on the reimposition of US sanctions, warning Trump that the US is isolated and that other countries who signed the 2015 nuclear deal intended to carry on lifting sanctions and doing trade with Tehran. Trump has warned that he will take action against any country which continues to do business with Iran. The truth is Trump simply cannot stop other countries from trading with Iran and buying its oil, but he can certainly make life difficult if, for instance, the EU refuses to oblige him by barring trade with Iran. But it is also true that Iran cannot rely on life continuing as normal, with the EU and others stepping in to help where the US axe has fallen. Already some of the world's biggest companies have pulled out of deals done with Iran after the 2015 nuclear agreement was signed, allowing for the phased lifting of sanctions. These companies know what's best for them, and trying to carry on as if nothing had happened, with Trump breathing down their necks, makes little business sense. Deals are done in US dollars, that's the way the world is, and any attempt by European companies to get round this will be seized on by the US Treaury sanctions-busting specialists and Trump revenge will not be far away. It's too risky. So EU plans to thwart Trump by putting a blocking measure into the system to prevent Trump from taking retaliatory action will make a fortune for lawyers but will do nothing to improve relations between Europe and the US. Relations are bad enough as it is. Leaders need to come to their senses. There has to be a sensible arrangement somewhere. But Trump's style is to go all out for what he wants, no compromise. The EU stands no chance.

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