Sunday 11 February 2018

North and South Korea love-in

I'm all for detente. There is nothing more heartening than when bitter enemies, especially ones that share a border, get together and smile a lot. This is what's going on between North and South Korea. There's a distinct lowering of the tension in the region, Kim Jong-un's sister, looking very young, has a sympathetic, innocent demeanour as she watches the Winter Olympics in her role as Senior Representative of the Supreme Leader, athletes from both sides of the border are holding hands and waving flags, and the regime boss in Pyongyang has invited President Moon of South Korea to come and see him for an official visit. All is sweetness and light. But oh my goodness, beware the cunning plan behind it all. Kim Jong-un has not changed overnight, the nuclear weapons programme he has authorised and the ballistic missile project he watches over with such glee continue as before. Only the surface stuff, the public relations, has altered, and the danger is that South Korea will be so happy to have the chance to discuss reunification, even though it is out of the question, that President Moon will go blindfolded to Pyongyang and embrace his North Korean counterpart with a feeling of euphoria, imagining that he and only he will break the political deadlock and bring in a new era of peace and tranquility to the Korean peninsula. Assuming the visit to Pyongyang goes smoothly and President Moon comes away saying how nice and friendly Kim Jong-un is, then the danger is he will be on the phone to President Trump to say: "Don't worry, everything is going to be fine. Kim Jong-un promised he doesn't want to hurt anyone, so you can put away your military options, especially that 'bloody nose' one the Pentagon keeps on talking about." Kim Jong-un is playing a very clever game. He knows that if he is really really nice to President Moon, the South Korean leader will do his best to stop Trump pressing the military button. The plan is so transparently obvious. Meanwhile the nuclear and ballistc missile programme will accelerate and suddenly before you know it, as the North and South Korean ice hockey team celebrates its first victory, Pyongyang will declare that it has mastered the nuclear weaponisation of its longest range ballistic missile and if Trump so much as thinks about the bloody nose scenario, the Supreme Leader will press The Button. Even the US doesn't know for sure that the missile interceptors in Alaska and California and on board half a dozen warships will definitely work. The last intercept test failed. So, all in all, the charm offensive by Kim Jong-un needs to be recognised for what it is. It's a charm offensive with a grim purpose. Let us hope that President Moon doesn't get fooled.

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