Tuesday 20 February 2018

Big power war in Syria on the brink

As every day goes by in Syria the danger of a big-power war gets closer and closer. It could be the US against Russia, or Turkey against Syria or Iran against the US or even, heaven forfend, Turkey versus the US. The risks are getting greater by the day, by the hour. The new confrontation is at Afrin, which the Turkish army is determined to cleanse of Kurdish "terrorists" for which read militia who are now bizarrely being backed by pro-Syrian regime forces who want to keep out the Turks. President Erdogan is acting like an Ottoman emperor, ruthlessly attacking anyone who he believes is linked to the PKK, the Kurdish separatists who have been at war with Turkey for 40 years. To Erdogan all Kurds are PKK and therefore Turkey's enemy. His army began attacking Afrin in January in Operation Olive Tree but now faces Assad's troops as well as Kurdish forces. Well, this is Syrian territory and the Turks have "invaded", so you could argue that the Turks are out of order. But in Syria there is no order, so Erdogan launched his offensive in order to protect his borders from "PKK" militia. Erdogan is now warning the Syrian regime to back off, just like he warned the US two weeks ago to back off from the town of Manbij which he wants to return to its "rightful owner" (you got it - Turkey). A bust-up between the two Nato partners now seems unlikely after an intervention by Jim Mattis in Brussels when he talked to his Turkish counterpart, but you never know with Erdogan. However, the incident on February 7 when 100 pro-regime Syrian forces including dozens of Russian "freelance contractors/mercenaries" were killed by US airstrikes and artillery has reminded everyone, Erdogan too one assumes, that when the Americans fire in anger they don't mess around. Moscow has definitely got the message. Putin and co are so desperate to absolve themselves of any knowledge of or responsibility for the deaths of Russian citizens that it's obvious the blast from the sky and from the ground will make the Ruskies think twice before contemplating a similar venture where the Americans are involved. But with Russian fighter jets and Spetnaz special forces around, there is always the danger of a huge miscalculation. Then suddenly it's official Russian forces against the Americans. Then what? As for Iran and its trained and armed Hezbollah accolytes, there is always the risk of a bloody confrontation, even though the US is insistent that its sole purpose in Syria is to rid the place of Isis. Nothing else matters, except when it does of course, like on February 7 when, for no logical reason, the pro-regime, Russian infested, 300-500-troop battle group turned up near a stronghold occupied by the US-trained Syrian Democratic Forces with their American advisers in tow and opened fire with everything they had. Putin, Assad, Erdogan, and everyone else with ambitions in Syria's future took due note. Not a bad thing in this crazy world.

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