Was Iran's uranuim-enrichment plant "obliterated"

Donald Trump chose the word "obliterated" when he announced the successful hits by 30,000lb bombs onto Iran's nuclear facility underground at Fordo. Ever since there have been doubts cast on how much damage was actually done. The US Defence Intelligence Agency which I guuess will now be abolished, reported (and it was leaked of course) that only enough damage was done to put back Iran's nuke programme by a few months. Trump is furious and has stuck to his favourite adjective, "obliterated". I hope for the sake of the world that Trump is right and the DIA is wrong or at least premature with its assessment. But if the DIA turns out to be right, then it means the dropping of FOURTEEN Massive Ordnance Penetraors(MOPs) by seven B-2 staelth bombers didn't do the trick after all. To be honest, there was always doubt about whether these mighty bombs could actually reach the parts that had to be reached, way way down under a mountain. Anyway, Iran smartly removed key equipment as well as the 400 kilos of 60 per cent-enriched uranium from Fordo and from Natanz, another nuke facility hit by MOPs. General Dan Caine, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said that battle-damage assessment still has to be completed. But Trump has made up his mmind that the Iranian sites have been obliterated. So someone must have told him that this was the case, or was that someone too scared to tell him the truth. Even Marco Rubio, the secretary of state who has been totally loyal to his master so far, has suggested the bombing caused severe damage but didn't use the word "obliterated". The battle-damage assessment is going to be pretty tricky if it's seen through the eyes of spy satellites because the images, while showing big craters in the mountain, don't show us the inside of the plants down below. This is not going to be resolved one way or the other in a matter of days but it certainly hasn't helped Trump's case that someone inside the DIA leaked the initial findings to the media. But then this is what always happens in the US.

Trump curses Israel and Iran for violating his ceasefire

The overnight announcement by Donald Trump of an agreement by both Israel and Iran to stop attacking each other was a rabbit-out-of-the-hat surprise. It didn't last long, but then Trump with some choice expletives told Israel to turn its bombers back and Tehran to stop firing missiles. When both sides are so fired up, perhaps it's to be expected that a few wild shots will be launched as the tempo starts to fall. Trump's intention was to fly off from Washington to The Hague in The Netherlands for the two-day Nato summit with peace in his pocket. As he boarded Air Force One he must have been looking forward to the cries of praise and congratulations from alliance leaders. But all will depend on whether the ceasefire holds. I would have thought Israel feels it still has much to do to stop the nuclear threat from Iran. Fordow, the deeply buried uranium-enrichment facility, is not "obliterated" as Trump claimed. It's badly damaged but could Tehran in the future rebuild it and get back to enriching uranium, this time to weapons-grade, 90 per cent, level? They have removed the 400 kilos of 60 per cent enriched-uranium in steel caskets to a secret site and nobody seems to know where it is. No doubt Mossad will find it and then we'll see what happens, as Trump likes to say. While Trump is distracted in The Hague, I fear Israel and Iran will continue to breach the "deal", each accusing the other of being the first to do so.

How can Trump keep it a short war with Iran?

The length and scale of the American confrontation with Iran will depend on two things: how much destruction was actually caused by the 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators dropped by the seven B-2 Sprit bombers on the nuclear sites at Fordow and Natanz, and by the US Navy submarine Tomahawks on Isfahan; and how Iran retaliates to the bombings. If, after battle-damage assessments have been completed, it's discovered that much of Fordow still survives and Natanz, too, Trump will have little alternative but to send the bombers back for another round of MOP strikes, although the inventory of these mighty bombs is limited. Likewise, if Iran launches attacks on American troops based in the Middle East or tries to close the Strait of Hormuz entrance into the Gulf waterway with mines, then Trump will have to do what he said he would do which is to strike back at multiple targets in Iran. Either way, the result will be a more prolonged battle with Iran, something which neither his political supporters at home nor the American people want. Iran will no doubt feel that it has to respond to the B-2 strikes but Tehran knows that if it goes big, the US response will be huge. Can they take that risk? And if they block the Strait of Hormuz, stopping all shipping, much of it carrying oil around the world, the repercusions will be enormous economically and Iran will face significant American military action. Also, blocking the narrow channel into the Gulf waterway will hurt Iran's economy because oil from Iran bound for China goes through the waterway. Not that long ago, Iran might have been able to rely on Hezbollah or Hamas to carry out retaliatory attacks on the Americans, but each of these organisations have been devastated by Israeli attacks over the last 20 months. Iran's proxy forces are no longer capable of launching major attacks on the Americans. My feeling is that the US battle-damage assessment carried out by the Pentagon will show that insufficient damage has been done to the nuke sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, and the B-2s will be back. Then the Iranian retaliation will follow.

The US attacks Iran's nuke sites!

Donald Trump has done it and he didn't wait two weeks. It was obvious Iran wasn't goinbg to play ball. Tehran wasn't going to budge on new nuke talks unless Israel stopping bombing. Trump was never going to agree to that, let alone Benjamin Netanyahu. So Trump called his national security team for a meeting last night and he gave the go ahead to bomb in the early hours. The six B-2 Spirit bombers assigned for the bombing run and a collection of air-to-air refuelling tankers were all set to go. Instead of going to the base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, the B-2s flew off from their Whiteman Air Force base in Missouri for the long-haul flight to Iran. This was the better option because it guaranteed more surprise. Six B-2s each armed with two Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs, 30,000lb in weight and with devastating explosive power, were dropped on the main uranium-enrichment bunker at Fordo, 100 miles spouth of Tehran and, according to Trump, it was obliterated. The only way it could have been put totally out of action would have been if the B-2s followed in a line and dropped the 12 MOPs one after the other into the same hole created by the first one. Twelve MOPs falling through the same hole wold have reached the floor of the bunker and devastated the whole place. Assuming that's what happened, it was a simple but unprecedented-in-history attack on a single underground installation by conventional bombs. Two other nuke sites at Isfahan and Natanz were hit by dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles fired fromn US submarines. All the talk of diplomacy and deescalation urged by everyone except Israel was also obliterated. But, despite all the appeals and concerns and fears and criticism emanating from around the world, it is just possible that the US, along with Israel of course, has saved the world from facing a nuclear-armed Iran, a nightmare for the whole globe. As the new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the other day when referring to Israel's action, Israel was doing the dirty work for everyone. Now Trump has also done the dirty work for the planet. Let us hope that's an end to it and Iran realises there is nothing it can do against the might of the US without huge retaliation. They can try with attacks on US forces and embassies in the region. But if they do that, Trump will just bomb more sites until Iran is thrown back into the 14th century. Ultimately, all countries, especially in the Middle East, will be grateful.

Will two weeks bring the result Trump wants?

Donald Trump likes putting things off for two weeks. He has done it before. The thinking is that it builds up pressure on "the enemy", whoever that is, and forces them to plead for a deal. But will it work this time? With Israel continuing every day and night dropping bombs and firing missiles at Iran, there will be no let-up for the Tehran regime. But throughout the next two weeks, the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will know that Trump is waiting for him to crumble and give in. As the days tick by, that pressure is going to get bigger and bigger. It doesn't matter what the Europeans and Canada do to try and forge some diplomatic deal. This is all about Trump versus Khamenei. The die has been cast and the Iranian leader will be the one who blinks, not Trump. I think that if by the time the two weeks have passed and Tehran has refused to budge, Trump will order the US military to finish the job the Israelis have started. Khamenei must know that. So it's all up to him. His whole purpose in life is to make sure he and the Islamic Republic under his leadership survive. And it may not survive if the US enters the war. So, to avoid regime change, the ayatollah will seek a deal. That's my prediction. However, there is a big extra ingredient here. How will the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps react if the Supreme Leader caves in? It could cause a revolution of a different kind, not the demise of the Islamic Republic but a take-over by the IRGC, the military taking even more control than they do today. Trump would hope that US bombing of Iran's nuke plants will lead to an uprising in the country with democracry shining through. That outcome would seem unrealistic even if the Supreme Leader is toppled.

Trump's big decision time

The danger with having a weapon system that was specifically developed to destroy deeply-buried military/nuclear bunkers is that if they don't do the job properly, there will be a huge anti-climax. Donald Trump, by all accounts, is worried that the Pentagon's Massive Ordnance Penetrator, 30,000lbs in weight and supposedly capable of breaching 200ft of concrete, won't actually reach Iran's most secret uranium-enrichment plant at Fordow south of Tehran which is half a mile down. Will the detonation from the MOP spread down far enough to destroy the plant? The reality is that the US might have to drop four or five of the $3 million MOPs, each one going down through the hole achieved by the previous one. Then it might be possible for the MOPs to get their targets. It's a big IF. Trump won't want to drop the bombs and discover that Iran's fuel-enrichment facility is untouched. That would be seriously embarrassing and make the whole effort look unachievable. That would be a huge bonus to Iran. Wars are rarely, if ever, won by airstrikes alone. Can the MOP do what other bombs in the past have failed to do - bring Iran to its knees and force it to give up all idea of building a nuclear bomb? Trump must be hoping so but it's why he has so far hesitated to give the go ahead for an American strike.

US involvement in Israel war with Iran inevitable

There are really only two options facing Donald Trump: either saying no to joining Israel in attacking Iran or start bombing. The only other possible option, but now seemingly vanishing fast, is to try one last diplomatic push as the bombs keep falling on Tehran. But Trump is a realist. He must know that diplomacy is now off the table because Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is resolved to fight Israel all the way. So the war option is really the only answer which is tragic but practical. I don't believe Trump will hold back now that the Israeli air force has cleared the way for a bombing run on the nuclear plants with America's Massive Ordnance Penetrator. But what will Russia do if Trump gives the go ahead? Russia and Iran are strategic partners. Iran is providing crucial armed drones to Russia for attacking Ukraine. Putin will feel obliged to support Iran. What will that mean? And China is not going to stay quiet. If China comes out on the side of Iran, this could turn out to be a mighty confrontation between the three big power rivals. All of this will have to be taken into account when Trump makes his final decision. The B-2s with a payload of Massive Ordnance Penetrators are waiting for the go.