To strike or not to strike? The big Iran question

Donald Trump promised Iranians on his Truth Social platform that help was on the way when thousands were being killed in the streets by a brutal, panicking regime. But did he mean regime-change by military force? Do the Iranian people want to get rid of the ayatollahs or do they just want a better economy so they can live a decent life? Trump things the regime is now weaker than ever, providing a perfect moment to strike hard and bring it down. But if this leads to a wider regional conflict, will the Iranian people be eternally grateful? Clearly not. No one in the region wants a wider war. Arab leaders have been appealing to Trump not to launch military action against Iran again. The last time, in June, the US and Israel did huge damage to the three nuclear facilities and it was all over very quickly, although Iran retaliated with limited ballistic-missile launches against Israel and Qatar and American bases in the region. This time,. if Trump goes ahead with an attack, using the recently-arrived USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and other aircraft in the Gulf, Tehran has vowed to respond with a much bigger counter-attack. It might seem that Iran is in a weak position. Not just the nuclear sites are badly damaged, but persistent raids by Israel have decimated the country's air defences. But Iran still possesses a huge stock of ballistic missiles and, therefore, they pose a significant threat both to Israel and to American troops based in Iraq and elsewhere in the Gulf region. Also, if Tehran fears Trump's plan is to topple the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, then the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which keeps him in power, will do everything it can to resist Trump's "armada" of warships sitting within targeting range. Trump has given Tehran an ultimatum: dismantle the whole nuclear programme, stop enriching uranium, hand over what has been enriched, and stop backing proxy militia (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis etc). If Tehran were to submit to these demands, it would be the greatest humiliation for the regime. So the chances of these ultimatums being met in total would seem to be unlikely. But Trump thinks now is the moment in histpry when the hateful, suppressive regime in Iran can be brought down. But Iran is not Venezuela. The likelihood of voluntary capitulation is remote. PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, SEQUEL TO SHADOW LIVES. SEE AMAZON, WATERSTONES AND ROWANVALE BOOKS.