Wednesday, 28 January 2026
Surrender Donbas or no US security guarantee? Really?
I know Donald Trump is desperate to get a settlement to end the war in Ukraine - nothing wrong with that - but can it really be true that he has told poor Volodymyr Zelensky that unless he agrees to give away the whole of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine to Russia, he won't get any American security guarantees to protect the country from future aggression? It sounds like the sort of ultimatum that the Trump administation might make, but the US has always stated, even under Trump, that Ukraine's sovereignty is a matter for Kyiv and its people and cannot be dictated by a third party. The story about the ultimatum in the Financial Times has been slammed by the White House as totally false. But I'm sure there are people in the US administration who have talked this sort of language. The question is, are these the people whose opinions have been accepted by Trump and have, therefore, become part of the Washington strategy for ending the war? There is no mention in Trump's 20-point plan for Kyiv to give up Donbas to Moscow. There IS a reference to the option of turning Donbas into a demilitarised zone which would mean the withdrawal of Ukrainian and Russian troops. But that is not the same as forcing Zelensky to surrender what Kyiv still controls in eastern Ukraine to the Russians, in return for a US blanket security guarantee for the future. What Zelensky wants is to get a security guarantee signed and sealed BEFORE he negotiates a settlement that might include some sort of concession over Donbas, but not, definitely not, giving Putin Donbas. But because all talks so far have failed to find a formula for ending the war because of the impasse over land, it might well be the case that some officials in Washington are beginning to think and say that the only possible solution is for Zelensky to give up Donbas. But is this the official line now adopted by Trump or just another controversial ingredient being played around with in Washington? Whatever it is, Zelensky's own political future rests upon him getting that US guarantee and NOT having to give up Donbas. So we are sort of back to square one.
No comments:
Post a Comment