Trump hints at nuclear deal with Iran

President Donald Trump says a nuclear deal with Iran is “close” and that Tehran has “sort of” agreed to curbing its suspected clandestine atomic weapons programme. Speaking to reporters on his Middle East diplomatic tour, the president gave a response to questions with his characteristic, casual choice of words that hint of a dramatic breakthrough without actually providing evidence of a deal which could potentially be his biggest foreign policy achievement to date. The US and Iran have now had four meetings of indirect negotiations in Oman, and although the content has remained confidential, the atmosphere between the two sides has been candid but amicable, raising expectations that a deal to end the threat of Tehran “breaking out” and building a nuclear bomb could be brokered diplomatically without the need for Trump to resort to military force. However, despite Trump’s enticing sound bite, there remain so many sticking points before a meaningful agreement can be signed that there have to be doubts about whether Iran is yet ready to bend to the US president’s demands. The biggest obstacle of all are the red lines which the US and Iran have set for themselves in the negotiations mediated by Oman. Initially, when the first round of talks began in Muscat last month the US position appeared to be that Iran would need to limit all enrichment of uranium to 3.67 per cent which would be the level appropriate for use in a civil nuclear programme. However, this position changed when Trump declared in an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press on 4 May that his goal was the “total dismantlement” of Iran’s uranium-enrichment programme. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy at the Muscat talks, underlined his boss’s demand by saying it was Washington’s “red line”. Abass Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister and the official chosen by the Tehran government to be the negotiator at the Oman talks, said the continuation of the enrichment programme was Iran’s red line. He accused the US of “inconsistency” and said it was unhelpful. Trump also wants any deal with Iran on its nuclear programme to embrace two other areas of concern to the US: the Iranian ballistic-missile programme and the support Tehran provides for proxy militia and terrorist groups in the Middle East, notably Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen and the Popular Mobilisation Force in Iraq. When Trump in his first administration withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed in 2015 during Barack Obama’s presidency, he cited the failure to include any clauses on Iran’s state funding of terrorism as one of the reasons. He also described the deal, agreed by Iran with the US, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany, as a “horrible one-sided nuclear agreement” which wouldn’t stop Tehran from building a bomb eventually. This was partly because there was a finite period for limiting Iran’s enrichment programme of only 15 years. Iran has insisted that it has no intention to build a nuclear weapon. But the rapid development of its uranium-enrichment programme tells another story. The number of gas centrifuges required to “spin” the uranium at accelerating speeds to higher grades have proliferated at Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz. Enrichment has also progressed way beyond what is suitable for civil nuclear power and is approaching weapons-grade level – 90 per cent enrichment. In its latest report for 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which has had the job of trying to keep track of Iran’s overt and covert nuclear programme, said nearly 275 kilograms of uranium had been enriched to 60 per cent. Another 606 kilograms had been enriched to 20 per cent. The Hiroshima bomb used about 64 kilograms of uranium. The IAEA is due to produce an updated report at the end of this month. Different estimates have been given about how long it might take Iran to build its first nuclear bomb after a decision is made to go ahead. But the timescales have come down rapidly. The estimates range from a few months to a year. However, that doesn’t take into account the time and expertise required to fit a nuclear warhead to a delivery system. The talks between the US and Iran have been constructive for a number of reasons: Attempts at moving the nuclear issue along failed to make any headway during the administration of President Joe Biden, although efforts were made to put new life into the JCPOA which, by the way, is still supported by the other 2015 signatories. The arrival of Donald Trump in the White House for a second term gave new impetus to the nuclear threat posed by Iran. Trump said he would prefer a diplomatic solution but made it clear the military option was one he would take if necessary. When six B-2 Spirit strategic bombers arrived at the British-owned US base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean in March, joined a few weeks later by four B-52 bombers there was widespread speculation that the military option might be on the cards sooner than anticipated. The US military focus, however, was at that time on the Houthis in Yemen, but Tehran would have got a fright. The political and strategic dimension has also changed dramatically. Israeli military action against Hamas and Hezbollah, and US attacks on the Houthis dealt massive blows to Iran’s so-called “forward defence” aimed at deterring the US and Israel from launching an attack. Also, crucially, Israeli airstrikes on Iranian air defence systems in October in retaliation for Tehran’s direct strikes on Israel, have made Iran more vulnerable to any attempt by the US to bomb its nuclear facilities. Last month Iranian foreign minister Araghchi said Iran was ready to “seal a deal” provided the US withdrew its “military solution”. While it seems unlikely Trump would want to rule out an option that can only put pressure on Iran to sign a new nuclear deal, the optimistic comments coming out of the talks so far suggest that Tehran is now more desperate than ever to get an agreement with Trump that will remove at least a proportion of the sanctions that have crippled the country’s economy and provoked unrest in the population, particularly among the younger generation. Whether Trump’s comment about an imminent deal proves right, other rounds of talks are being planned and the signs are looking more positive than they have for months. Much will depend on whether those red lines can be nuanced.

Putin no-show dooms the Ukraine "peace" talks

So, Vladimir Putin's name is not on the manifest nor on the list of Russian delegates heading for peace/ceasefire/anything talks with Ukraine in Istanbul. Had he gone, Donald Trump would probably have gone, too, and there might just have been a better chance of a decent outcome. But Putin has stayed in Moscow, and Trump will go back to Washington after completing his Middle East trip. A golden opportunity lost. It was never really on the cards. Putin is nowhere near the stage when he wants or needs to have a face-to-face on the war in Ukraine with Trump. If he had met Trump in Istanbul the world would have expected some sort of grand result, if not a declaration that the war was going to stop on a certain date. So Putin's best option, only option, was to not bother with the Istanbul meeting and instead, send his former culture minister with nothing to say except the usuual formula about needing to eliminate the root causes of the problem with Ukraine, ie its very existence. Putin also has the tricky matter of being wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court and could be arrested if he leaves Russia, although Turkey is not a signatory, so he would have been fine. But it was probably a tiny issue for the Russian president. Mostly it was a case of Putin saying no, not yet, if ever. He doesn't want to sit down in the same room as Zelensky anyway and will now wait to see if Trump insists on calling for a summit. But he is in no hurry.

Trump welcomes rebel Syrian leader with a no-sanctions gift

President Donald Trump was in a generous mood on the first day of his Middle East diplomatic tour, announcing the lifting of sanctions against Syria and offering a similar gesture to Iran, though with strict conditions. The decision to end sanctions on Syria came as a surprise and was greeted with applause by his audience in Riyadh. Trump said he had been asked by the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Turkey to consider lifting sanctions to help the new government in Damascus which took over after the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad on 8 December last year. To underline the changed strategy by the Trump administration, the US president will meet with President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the new Syrian leader, in Saudi Arabia today. It will be a dramatically symbolic meeting for the Syrian president who seized control of Damascus last year at the head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, previously linked to al-Qaeda and designated by Washington as a terrorist organisation. Since taking power, al-Sharaa has been wooing western leaders and international institutions to give him a chance to bring stability and peace to a country that had been torn by civil war for t14 years under Assad, now living in exile in Moscow. Today in Riyadh he won his biggest scalp, the president of the United States who reversed Washington’s policy at a stroke. Although Syria’s future still remains uncertain and unpredictable, because there are so many competing political and militia groups, Trump’s backing will be a prize he can take back to Damascus to cement his leadership status in the country. Syria has been one of the most sanctioned countries in the world, although since al-Sharaa’s seizure of power in Damascus, some of the sanctions have already been eased. In February the European Union suspended certain economic sanctions to help with the development of democracy in the country. President Erdogan of Turkey which is now the dominant foreign power supporting al-Sharaa, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, played the crucial role in persuading Trump to drop sanctions against Syria. Trump said Erdogan had called him the other day to end sanctions. Giving his reasoning for lifting sanctions, Trump said:”There is a new government that will hopefully succeed in stabilising the country and keeping peace.” Iran which was the dominating power in Syria when al-Assad was president, was given an option by Trump during his speech in Riyadh. He offered a “new path and a much better path toward a far better and more hopeful future”. But he warned that Tehran would never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. “The time is right now for them to choose,” he said. There are currently high-level talks underway between the US and Iran over the Tehran regime’s nuclear programme. Trump warned that “things are happening at a very fast pace, so they have to make their move right now”. He highlighted Iran’s “destructive” involvement in causing “unthinkable suffering in Syria, Lebanon. Gaza. Iraq, Yemen and beyond”. The speech was a tour de force in Trump-style foreign policy-making. He also raised his hopes of one day persuading Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel and join the Abraham Accords, the 2020 agreement he brokered in which the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, two of Saudi Arabia’s neighbours, established diplomatic relations with Israel. This vision, however, was greeted with stoney silence. The concept is unpopular in Saudi Arabia and rejected by the Saudi leadership until the war in Gaza comes to an end and an independent Palestinian state is created. Trump acknowledged the doubts in Saudi minds. “You’ll do it in your own time, and that’s what I want and that’s what you want,” he said. Trump’s first day of his four-day Middle East tour, which will include visits to the UAE and Qatar, was notable for its warmth towards Mohammed bin Salman. Trump made frequent remarks praising the Crown Prince for transforming Riyadh into a major global business and technology capital. He also said “Mohammed” was his friend. His praise was in remarkable contrast to the views of his predecessor President Joe Biden who had frosty relations with the Crown Prince whom he accused of being responsible for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post journalist and critic of the Saudi government. Khashoggi was killed and dismembered by Saudi agents inside the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul in October, 2018.

Why Hamas released the last surviving American hostage in Gaza

The last surviving American hostage held by Hamas has been released, coinciding with the arrival today of President Trump in the Middle East. The timing could not be more significant. Previous attempts to negotiate the release of Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old Israeli-American soldier from an elite army unit, failed despite high-level talks in Qatar. However, Hamas, not a terror organisation known for its nuanced approach to diplomacy, clearly realised that with Trump in the region, the “gesture of good will” might pay additional dividends. Alexander was serving on the border with Gaza on 7 October 2023 when Hamas gunmen arrived in force and killed 1,200 Israelis and other nationals and seized 251 hostages. The young soldier was one of 59 hostages left to be released, only 24 of whom are thought to be still alive. Four other American hostages are believed to be dead. Alexander, born in Tel Aviv but raised in New Jersey,was held in Gaza for 583 days. Trump who is due to land in Saudia Arabia tomorrow as part of a Middle East trip that will include visits to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates but not Israel, described the freedom for Alexander as “monumental” and said it was “a step taken in good faith”. The decision by Hamas to release the American hostage without preconditions – in other words, no consecutive release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel – has underlined how the dynamics of the Gaza war have been changing. There are multiple competing objectives: *Hamas wants the war to end without being comprehensively defeated. They want to survive to continue playing a leadership role in Gaza and to achieve that, they need all Israel Defence Forces (IDF) troops to withdraw from the territory. The holding of hostages has been key to this strategy. *Israel, under Benjamin Netanyahu, has now made it clear that the total defeat of Hamas and the occupation of the whole of the Gaza Strip is the priority, even more important than the release of the remaining hostages; and thousands of reservists have been mobilised to flood Gaza with troops. *The Trump administration has backed Israel to eliminate Hamas but the president has other objectives and needs the war to end and the hostages released, to achieve it. His arrival in Saudi Arabia is a reminder that Trump’s long-term vision is to persuade Riyadh to agree formal diplomatic relations with Israel as part of an expanded framework of peace and stability in the region. Saudi Arabia has shown willingness to consider this strategy but not until the war in Gaza comes to an end. The release of Edan Alexander is, therefore, a clever chess move by Hamas to gain favour with Trump as he lands in the region and to put pressure on Netanyahu to call off his plan, approved by his security cabinet, to launch a new all-enveloping offensive to seize the whole of the Gaza Strip. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s ubiquitous special envoy, slipped away from the Trump delegation to Saudi Arabia in order to fly direct to Israel to speak to Netanyahu. The Israeli prime minister has so far treated the freedom for Alexander as a bonus and a sign of desperation by Hamas rather than as an incentive to suspend or cancel his new offensive in Gaza. Netanyahu, of course, is under all sorts of pressure, political and diplomatic. Trump is getting almost as frustrated with the Israeli prime minister as he is with President Putin and the Russian leader’s ambivalent response to Washington’s demands for an end to the war in Ukraine. Domestically, Netanyahu is being accused of deliberately expanding and prolonging the war in Gaza in order to safeguard his own position. He still faces corruption charges which he has described as “an ocean of absurdity”. The release of Alxander has also intensified the demands of the hostage families, a potent political force in Israel, to focus far more effort on gaining the return of the other hostages, dead and alive. One of the principal players on the American side in recent negotiations with Hamas was Adam Boehler, Trump’s special envoy for hostage response. The other key members of the Trump administration involved were Steve Witkoff and Marco Rubio, the secretary of state and temporary national security adviser. Most of the talks between the US and Hamas have been carried out indirectly, with Qatar acting as mediator. But earlier this year, Boehler held direct talks with Hamas in Doha, Qatar to try and secure Alexander’s freedom, as well as the bodies of the four dead Americans. But those talks faltered, partly because of Israeli objections. The last time there were hostage releases was in January and February during the two-month ceasefire. Thirty-eight hostages were freed in exchange for 1,500 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. The ceasefire ended in March after a breakdown in talks to agree the next phases in a longer-term settlement which should have led to the release of the remaining 24 surviving hostages and 35 dead captives, held by both Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists.

Stick with Trump and you get a story

The reporters travelling with Donald Trump to the Middle East are sure of one thing. They will get a surfeit of breaking stories. Trump brings reporters he likes and trusts along with him everywhere and they get the tasty morcels that emerge every day. It's so unlike the Joe Biden era. You were lucky to get any atory when travelling with him. But Trump uses every opportunity to hint at what's coming up and if he doesn't tell his reporters' fan club he puts it on his social media platform. It's news news news every single day. Even before he arrives in Saudi Arabia tomorrow, the story broke that the last surviving Amnerican-Israeli hostage in Gaza was to be released. Trump announced it. Big headlines everywhere. When he is in Saudi Arabia there will be all sorts of snippets emerging to make the headlines, not least, the potential for Saudi/Israeli diplomatic relations and the Iran nuclear programme which Trump is try to scotch with negotations going on for the last two weeks. Whatever you think of Trump, it has to be said that his presidency so far has been a blockbuster - at least for the reporters in tow.

What does Putin think of Washington/Beijing talks?

For the May 8 end of Second World War celebrations in Moscow, Vladimir Putin had his good friend Xi Zinping alongside him. Lots of hugs and hand-shaking and smiles. All very symbolic of the burgeoning friendship and alliance between Russia and China. They are strategic partners, effectively lined up against the United States and everything America stands for on the global stage. So what will Putin be thinking when he reads that Donald Trump's envoy and Xi Zinping's envoy have met in Switzerland and had a jolly good discussion and negotiation about resolving the tariff/trade war and improving relations between Washington and Beijing? Does Putin think Beijing is playing a double game here or did Xi reassure him when he was in Moscow that he has a grand plan with the US which won't upset or undermine his deep love for Putin and Russia? I think the Chinese president will have reassured Putin that his main priority is strengthening the relationship on all counts with Moscow but being a global economic superpower China has to have meaningful trade relations with Washington. Trump has said that if Putin stops the war in Ukraine and accepts a peace settlement, then the benefits for Russia will be huge vis a vis trade and business relations with the US. So far, Putin hasn't taken that on board. But if Washington and Beijing agree a new way of doing business together, it might persuade Putin to do likewise. Thus the war in Ukraine could end. It's just a thought but it might work.

A woman to be "C", head of MI6

So it looks like the next Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) is going to be a woman, the first in the agency's history. According to the Sunday Times, the shortlist of three candidates does not include a man. Ergo, a female "C", the most famous letter in Whitehall. Everyone from the Prime Minister downwards in government refers to the Chief of MI6 as "C". The intelligence service has had a lot of very good women at the top of the hierarchy for many years but every time the possibility of a woman taking over the top job came up it was always a man who got it. Sir Richard Moore, the current "C", is retiring at the end of the year after five years in the post. So now is the time when Whitehall looks at the replacement candidates. The Sunday Times says two of the candidates are insiders, long-term MI6 intelligence officers, and the third, the favourite, is the current ambassador to the United Nations, Dame Barbara Woodward, a former ambassador to Beijing. She'll be the favourite because of her contacts and experience in China, the Number One challenge for the West. But for the intelligence officers in MI6, their choice would be to have an insider in the top job. They always prefer that. It's said Barbara Woodward has no intelligence backgrtound but of course that is not strictly true. As ambassador in Beijing and in the UN she will have had access to classified material and will know the hierarchy at MI6 HQ at Vauxhall Cross. It's not the same as having experience of standing cold and apprehensive on dark street corners in some hostile capital waiting for a source to turn up. But she will know her intelligence stuff. We will wait and see who the mandarins recommend to Sir Keir Starmer.

Charmer Starmer wins over Trump

Keir Starmer got a lot of flak for bending the knee to Donald Trump and flattering him at every available opportunity at a time when other leaders were denouncing the new president or staying away from him because of his unpredictability. But ever since the shocking scenes in the Oval Office when Trump and his vice president JD Vance harangued President Zelensky before the world's media, it became evident that the only way to have a decent chat with the US president was to smile and agree with everything he said. Starmer effectively did that and now everyone is saying his whole approach to the Trump conundrum has produced dividends. For a start, he has got himself the first trade deal that has come out of the White House. A deal is a deal, whether it's a terrific one or not. The trade deal Starmer has won, through his negotiators, isn't the perfect agreement but it's a beginning and it's better than no deal at all, which has been the case for years under successive British prime ministers. So, it's one up for Starmer.

VE Day should be a reminder to all dictators

Here we are, 80 years after the end of the Second World War which caused millions of deaths and destruction of whole cities, and yet the lessons that should have been learned have not been learned. The world is suffering from more wars than ever before: Ukraine, Gaza, the Congo, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and, potentially, between India and Pakistan. Terrorism is everywhere. The threat of a Third World War has been in the air ever since Russia invaded Ukraine. Newspaper headlines here in ther UK often warn of a future attack on this country by Russia. I think and hope that such dire warnings are exaggerated. But the headlines indicate the fear in people's minds that the world is going down a dangerous and scary path. The 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War will hopefully persuade political leaders that no action should ever be taken which might lead to another global conflict. The Soviet Union played a crucial role in the defeat of the Nazis. President Putin should be proud of that but also be aware of his awesome responsibilities to seek peaceful, not military solutions to what he believes are Russia's grievances.

India and Pakistan deadly brinkmanship

India launched missile attacks on “militant” sites in Pakistan and in Pakistani-controlled Kashmir in retaliation for the terrorist strikes two weeks ago which killed more than two dozen Indian tourists. The military action raised already heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, both of whom are nuclear weapon states. India said in a statement that it had attacked nine locations. Pakistan countered by claiming three sites had been hit and that a child had been killed and two others injured. However, India said it had restricted its missile strikes on infrastructure used by militants in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and in eastern Punjab province, “where terrorist attacks against India have been planned”. From early reports it seemed the missiles were fired from fighter aircraft operating inside Indian territory. Pakistan claimed none of the aircraft had entered Pakistani airspace. In a statement, India’s defence ministry said: “Our actions have been focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature. No Pakistan military facilities have been targeted.” The statement added: “India has demonstrated considerable restraint in selection of targets and method of execution.” Although Pakistan claimed it had responded to the attacks, raising fears of prolonged retaliatory action, there were hopes that the Indian government might feel it had taken sufficient revenge for the terrorist attack two weeks ago and would hold back from launching further strikes. Speaking at the White House, President Donald Trump said he was not surprised by the attacks since the two neighbouring countries had experience hostile relations for decades. However, he added: “It’s a shame. I just hope it ends very quickly.” There were calls last night for intensive diplomatic efforts to stop the outbreak of cross-border violence from developing into a full-scale war. A spokesman for Antonio Guterres, the United Nations secretary-general, said he urged “maximum military restraint from both countries”. “The world cannot afford a military confrontation between India and Pakistan,” the spokesman, Stephane Dujarric, said. The Indian government had warned that it would retaliate for the terrorist attack on 22 April in which 26 people were shot dead by gunmen near the resort town of Pahalgam in the region of Kashmir controlled by India. Although India described it as a terrorist attack, the government blamed Pakistan for backing the armed group responsible, identified as the Kashmir Resistance. Pakistan denied involvement. India administers the southern and southeastern regions of Kashmir and Pakistan controls the northern and western areas. China controls the eastern section. It has been a volatile region since the partition of India into India and Pakistan in 1947. India and Pakistan have already fought four wars. The first was in 1947-1948 and was known as the first Kashmir war. The second Kashmir war was in 1965. In December 1971 the two countries went to war after the Bangladesh liberation movement fought for independence in eastern Pakistan. India backed the nationalist movement against Pakistan. In 1999, an Indian-Pakistan war, also known as the Kargil war, erupted from May to July. It was focused on the Kargil district in Kashmir when Pakistani troops crossed the so-called Line of Control, the de facto border between Pakistan-controlled and India-controlled Kashmir.

No hope for Gaza

(Apologies for absence. Major blog technical problem, now resolved) The decision by the Israeli cabinet to go full-throng into capturing the whole of Gaza is a disaser for the Palestnian people, disaster for the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) who don't want to become indefinite occupiers of the territorial Strip and probably disastrous for the remaining 59 hostages, only about 24 of whom are believed to be still alive. Benjamin Netanyahu said from the beginning that the objective of the military offensive in Gaza was to eliminate Hamas and rescue all the hostages. He has failed on both counts. Ceasefires, peace settlements etc were tried but ultimately failed. So, now, it's back to full war but with the aim of total occupation. Thousands of Israeli reservists are being called up. For the families of the hostages this is a sad and tragic day, with hope of recovering their loved ones disappearing.Trump should send a delegation to Israel to try and get a more sensible solution discussed but it doesn't look as if the US president is eager to get involved again after the failures of the previous negotiations in Qatar to find a lasting peace deal. So the future is bleak for the Palestinian people and for the hostages.

Trump is nice to the stock market

A few less negative remarks from Donald Trump and the markets around the world breath a sigh of relief and start climbing. It's so volatile that the slightest change in mood from the president and the world takes note. Perhaps that's the way he likes it. This time he has stated that he has no intention of sacking Jerome Powell, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, although Trump has been pretty rude about him in recent days. That statement boosted the stock market significantly. Then he said that the hugely high tariff rates on Chinese imports will come down. Up up up goes the stock market. Of course this is encouraging but the stock market really doesn't know where it is at the moment. It has been one of the most unpredictable periods since the financial crisis in 2008. What the market wants is a steady-as-you-go economy with signs of green shoots for a big boost to come. But there is no sign of that at the moment, so the market takes what it can get and if Trump is in a happy mood, then that's good for investors. It is certainly a Trump world we live in.

Perhaps the Pope's funeral will lead to some diplomatic breakthroughs

Historically, state funerals have been exploited to draw leaders of the world together to try and do some back stage deals. The Pope's funeral is attracting most of the leaders on this planet with obvoious exceptions, including Putin, Xi Zinping and Kim Jong Un. But both Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky will be there on Saturday and perhaps they could get together and sort something out about the war in Ukraine. Trump will want to get the rare earth minerals deal completed. All the European leaders will be present and they should get Trump to one side and tell him it's high time he demonstrated his devotion to the alliance. That would be a great achievement. Funerals have a way of forging relationships in a way which can't always be achieved in more formal conference rooms.So, watch out for little gatherings here and there. If peace were to emerge out of these chats whether it be to do with the wars in Ukraine and Gaza or the Trump trade war, then Pope Francis in his death will have added to his legacy as a peacemaker. It's a small hope but something positive could emerge from Saturday's funeral.

How much longer can the stock market slump?

Every day it seems to get worse. The stock market is dropping so fast it will go through the floorboards soon. But President Trump is sticking with his tariff war and is now focusing all his ire on the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, calling on him to cut interest rates. If the stock market continues to fall, Trump will blame Jerome Powell and then sack him. Something is going to have to give. The Dow Jones index fell by 1,000 points yesterday. That's staggering. The trouble is, Trump can't back down, not fully anyway, because he has set up his stall and has told everyone that it is the only way to make America great again. So far it has just been short-term suffering on a huge scale. Could it lead to long-term prosperity and jobs for everyone? This is what he is hoping but meanwhile the economic future looks grim for the average American household and for all of us. Trump's popularity is going to vanish and he could find himself under greater pressure than ever to switch tactics. Right now, he is holding firm. This gentleman is not for turning, to use the famous comment by Margaret Thatcher.

Fear and chaos at the Pentagon

Pentagon officials are living “in fear” of being forced to take polygraph tests to prove they are not leaking sensitive information to the media. An email warning of the potential use of lie-detector testing has created an atmosphere of intimidation, according to one US defence source. The source said the Pentagon was currently a “Pandora’s box” of uncertainty, following the sacking of three top officials and the departure of two more high-ranking civilians in the last week, leaving Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, without key advisers. “The extraordinary thing is that lie detector tests are being threatened, not to uncover potential anti-President Trump civil servants but to catch political appointees suspected of leaking classified or sensitive information,” the source said. There are also concerns that the Pentagon will follow the example of the Department of Homeland Security where some officials have been ordered to hand over their phones to check on their political loyalty and their social media activity. “Pentagon officials are living each day in fear of being sacked. This is all causing a huge distraction and I would be shocked if Hegseth is still defence secretary for much longer,” the source said. Hegseth himself is still being investigated by the Pentagon’s inspector general for his involvement in the Signal group chat last month between top Trump national security officials about the upcoming air strikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen. One of those in the text-messaging group was Geoffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of the Atlantic magazine, who had been inadvertently invited to participate. Now he is facing further investigation after The New York Times revealed Hegseth had also discussed the airstrikes on the Houthis with a second Signal chat group which included his wife, Jennifer, a former Fox News producer, his brother Phil and Tim Parlatore, his personal lawyer, both of whom work in some capacity in the Pentagon. Sean Parnell, Pentagon spokesman, denied in a reply on social media that any classified information had been discussed in either of the Signal chats. Underlining the reported chaos at the Pentagon, one of the officials ousted last week has spoken out in public about the damage being created by the recent sackings. John Ullyot, appointed top spokesman by Hegseth, was asked to resign following an outcry over the removal from the Pentagon’s website of the military service record for Jackie Robinson, a black baseball legend and civil rights hero. It was removed as part of the Trump administration’s order to stop promoting diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI). The website entry on Jackie Robinson was restored. Following Ullyot’s ousting, three top Hegseth officials were accused of leaking classified information to the media and were summarily sacked: Dan Caldwell, a senior adviser to the defence secretary, Darin Selnick, deputy chief of staff, and Colin Carroll, chief of staff to Stephen Feinberg, the deputy defence secretary. Then Joe Kasper, Hegseth’s chief of staff, was also removed, creating five vacancies in “front office” roles in just a week. “The [Pentagon] building is in disarray under Hegseth’s leadership,” Ullyot wrote in an opinion piece in the Politico magazine. “The dysfunction is now a major distraction for the president, who deserves better from his senior leadership,” he wrote. Ullyot wrote that the Pentagon was in “total chaos” and he also doubted whether Hegseth would survive as defence secretary. He accused Hegseth’s office of “falsehoods” about the three officials who were sacked for leaking information including the decision to send a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East. On Saturday the three sacked officials penned a post on X (formerly Twitter) in which they claimed they had been slandered. “Hegseth is now presiding over a strange and baffling purge,” Ullyot wrote. “More firings may be coming, according to rumours in the building.” Ullyot was in charge of communications at the National Security Council during Trump’s first term as president.

Will Trump's nuke deal with Iran look like Obama's?

Donald Trump was scathing about Barack Obama's nuke deal with Iran signed in 2015. He said it was weak and failed to include any limitations on Tehran's sponsorship of terrorism in the Middle East. When he became president in 2017 he axed the deal, or at least he opted the US out of the deal which had also been signed by the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council - UK, France,China and Russia - plus Germany. But without the US on board, the deal fell apart. Now Trump is desperate to negotiate a new deal with Iran to avoid having to resort to military action to try and destroy the clandestine nuclear weapons programme facilities. But are the new talks also addressing Iran's state-sponsorship of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, or are they sticking exclusively to the nuke issue? If it's the latter, it's ironic that the Trump administration is trying to emulate the Obama deal which Trump hated. One of the great drawbacks of the Obama deal was that it only covered a limited period which meant Iran only had to bide its time before renewing its efforts to build a bomb, and in the meantime the sanctions on Iran would have been lifted immediately, effectively pouring billions of dollars into Tehran's coffers to continue nuclear research and support its proxy terrorist forces in the Middle East. If the Trump deal is going to be more effective. Ever, not just delayed for ten years.

Easter ceasefire in Ukraine announced by Putin

It was only last month that Vladimir Putin announced that he had instructed his military commanders to stop targeting Ukraine's energy installations as part of an agreement for a 30-day ceasefire. Neither the ceasefire itself nor the end to bombing power plants actually materialised. No ceasefire and the bombs and missiles kept on hitting these infrastructure sites. So what was the purpose behind Putin's promise? Now we have an Easter ceasefire announced by Putin, to last 30 hours. One can only look at this latest gesture with a degree of cynicism. Even if it worked and there was no shooting or bombing for 30 hours, it would presumably start all over again as soon as the 30 hours are up. But in reality the Easter ceasefire will probably not work out because no one in Ukraine trusts Putin to keep his word. In fact Zelensky claimed there were Iran-supplied Shahed armed drones even at that moment in the sky over Ukraine to hit targets. So what sort of ceasefire exactly is being offered? It's a clever move by Putin who claimed it was a humanitarian gesture. But humanitarian gestures are pretty meaningless in a war which has lasted more than three years and shows no sign of ending.

Now Trump could walk away from a Ukraine deal

You never know quite where you are with the Trump administration. Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, came out of a meeting with Europeans on Ukraine and said unless there was a sign in the next few days that a deal to end the war was genuinely on the cards, the US could walk away fromn Ukraine. In other words, the US would stop supporting Ukraine and leave it to the Europeans and that would be it. It's probably just a negotiating tactic but it shows that there is not a lot of patience around in the White House. Trump wants to get shot of Ukraine but preferably by brokering a deal to stop the death and destruction. A good objective, except there is one person who is not interested in making any deal except on his terms. That's Vladimir Putin. So with the US threatening to walk away that just hands Putin what he wants. He is not going to make any deal with the Europeans, so the war will go on and on and on. Europe will get increasingly immersed in the war and it will bankrupt us all. This is a disastrous moment.

Trump still confident he can get a deal to end the war in Ukraine and stop an Iranian nuke

One thing that can be said about the Donald Trump administration is that it is still suffused with confidence that it can end the war in Ukraine and stop Iran from building a nuclear bomb. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran now has all the ingredients to make a nuclear bomb and it could be done in weeks if the ayatollahs approved. It's maximum brinkmanship. On the war in Ukraine question, although there are no signs of any imminent or foreseeable deal with Moscow, there are a lot of talks going on and something might suddenly emerge to give hope of a ceasefire. But in the meantime, Putin is hammering Ukraine like he expects the war to continue until the whole country is destroyed. Right now, Ukraine and a Tehran nuke are the biggest issues for the White House to resolve. The administration appears to have effectively given up on bringing a ceasefire in Gaza and is allowing Israel to do what it feels it needs to do. So all the diplomatic efforts are focusing on Moscow and Tehran. If the diplomacy, backed up by threats and warnings, fail to deliver, then there is a strong chance the war in Ukraine will continue for years, and Tehran will go for the nuke and suffer the consequences - bombing by Israel and backed up by the US. This, I believe, is the last thing Trump wants. He doesn't want another war and certainly not one that involves the US. So I anticipate a massive diplomatic effort to stop Iran before catastrophe arrives.

Joe Biden on the war path against Trump

For Trump it's a bit like being hit by an old daddy-long-legs insect. But at least Joe Biden has spoken out finally to attack the new administrations' assault on the social security system which he believes provides the vital safety net for the poorer members of American society. Biden also attacked the current administration for causing such chaos in the short time it has been in power. Obama has been weighing in as well. But there has been little criticism from other past presidents, such as Bill Clinton and George W Bush. Meanwhile, the only Democrats stirring it up are Bernie Sanders who could be described as a truly veteran old campaigner and the fiery Alexandria Occasio Cortez who one day, years hence, could run for the presidency. They are a travelling duo and attracting huge crowds but America is now Trump's America, and any noises from the Democrats are being swamped by the daily announcements from the White House. Something new and dramatic appears to happen every day. So whatever Joe Biden says is unlikely to have much, if any, impact.

Risk of letting China take over UK critical infrastructure

David Cameron and his chancellor George Osborne were the ones who set this country on the path of maximum partnership with China. They thought it would lead to a huge boost to the economy and lay the foundations for a successful and beneficial business alliance. It was all high-vision stuff, but no one at the time really thought through the dangers of allowing Beijing to take a control of parts of the UK's criticial infrastructure. Now, here we are, with a Chinese company trying to shut down the Scunthorpe steel works because it's losing £700,000 a day. So much for Chinese business acumen, but, far more seriously, the country's steel-manufacturing business was set to be cast onto the scrapheap by the Chinese until the government of Sir Keir Starmer stepped in and as good as renationalised the Scunthorpe works. What a farce. Of course the jobs have to be saved and this vital industry has to survive. The UK makes very few things these days. Let's hang on to our specialisesd steelmaking. But the truth is, having handed over this plant to a Chinese company, successive governments left all the decision-making to a foreign power and when the money ran out all they wanted to do was close it down, never mind the social and human repercussions. So the government had no choice but to spend the money and keep the plant alive. When the Chinese come calling to buy up other parts of the UK's critical infrastructure, the answer should be "Bu xiexie". No thank you.

Ceasefires in Ukraine and Gaza are history

It doesn't seem that long ago when there was new hope of a ceasefire in Ukraine and Gaza. Now, it's like it never happened. The one in Gaza lasted a short time before collapsing in violence and death. The promised one in Ukraine never happened at all despite vague promises from Moscow. Now it's all about the new tariff wa, and who is caring about the appalling destruction continuing in Ukraine and Gaza? Keith Kellogg, the retired lieutenant-general who is supposedly Donald Trump's envoy to Ukraine, condemned Putin for hitting a city in Ukraine on Palm Sunday with a ballistic-missile strike and killing more than 30 people including children. But who is Kellogg? He's not a top adviser to Trump in reality. His words of condemnation made only a sideshow. As for the killing of yet more Palestinians in Gaza, it was the usual story. Israel said the target was a hospital because it contained a Hamas command centre. Nothing has changed. It's a pretty bleak moment in 2025. All the hope of an end to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza is fading fast.

The mirrors game in the US/Iran nuke talks

The first talks between the US and Iran on Tehran's nuke programme since Donald Trump became president were described as being constructive but in terms of presentation and form they were another bizarre example of how previously broken-down relationships begin slowly to merge once agaiun. The talks were indirect which meant one US negotiator, Steve Witkoff, the ever-faithful deal-broker Trump envoy, and the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, sat in separate rooms in a building in Oman and used an Oman mediator to switch from one room to the other carrying messages. This formula has been used many times over the years in all kinds of past diplomatic disputes but it still seems bizarre. Does even "Good morning, how are you?" have to go back and forth before the real issues begin? Anyway, the fact that Iran and US are talking at all on the nukes subject is at least positive. But the other bizarre aspect of this particular diplomatic impasse is that the Supreme Leader in Iran, the present one and the former one, never actually admitted to ever wanting to build a nuclear weapon. Indeed, they consistently said it was against the Muslim faith to consider going down that path. So what is all the fuss about? Basically, no one in Washington has ever believed them. And for good reason, because the Iranian atomic scientists are pushing ahead with developing more and more highly-enriched uranium with the clear goal of being in a position to produce weapons-grade material if the ayatollahs suddenly decide to go for it and have a bomb. Meanwhile, it's all smoke and mirrors and sitting in adjoining rooms.

Putin and his new friend Steve Witkoff

We're getting used to it now, but after so long with Vladimir Putin being Washington's bete noire, it still seems extraordinary to see him shaking hands with an American envoy and smiling at each other. Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump's go-anywhere special envoy and Mr Tough Negotiator, is with Putin today in St Petersburg. Putin knows that Trump is getting increasingly irritated by his failure to sign a full-time ceasefire in Ukraine. In fact Putin right now is doing exactly the opposite, bombing and pounding Ukraine as much as he can. At some point soon, Trump will get seriously angry with his old mucker. But for the moment he has sent Witkoff to batter Putin with ultimatums and warnings and delivering a message that his president is exasperated. Will Putin care? I absolutely don't think so. Putin has all the cards and he will play themk to the bitter end. Even if he loses Trump as a friend he still has China's Xi Zinping on his side and that will give him the confidence he needs - not that he really needs it - to carry on fighting. I doubt Witkoff will come away with any breakthrough because Putin is still talking about doing nothing until the "root causes" of the invasion of Ukraine have been resolved. ie Ukraine existing at all!

Donald Trump blinks first

So the Big Man has blinked.Only 24 hours ago he was promising to stay the course and let every country beg for mercy and offer fancy trade deals to benefit the United States. Then suddenly, he got the message loud and clear that the US economny was heading into an abyss and recession unless he backed off. So he backed off and suspended all the high tariffs he had imposed on everyone. He made onoly one other change, he increased the tariffs against China to 125 per cent just for good measure to try and show that he was still holding the stick against his biggest rival. But everyone else went down to 10 per cent. Will this puncture Trump's bombast or will he negotiate his way out of a humiliating pullback by claiming he has got some wonderful deals. On the face of it, however, Trump has done a Liz Truss. Banked all his plans and dreams into one big pot and then found it was cracking from top to bottom. Truss was forced to resign and accept her legacy of ignominy. Trump will survive but the battering ram approach may now be put back in the cupboard where it belongs.

Does Trump want a war with China?

Two things have occurred at the same time which raises the concern that the new administration in Washington is heading for a war with China: a trade war has already started, a military war could be ahead in the not too distant future. This is scary stuff. The two things are the 104 per cent tariffs put on all Chinese goods entering the American market, and a warning from a very senior US military commander that the armed forces need to carry out a full, across-servce military exercise to preoare for war in the Pacific (with China). He says there have been lots of studies on jont-arms requirements but no proper actual exercise. So watch out for a mammoth exercise in the Pacific in the future involving every aspect of the army, navy, air force, marines and special forces. Can Trump really want a war with China? The concequences for the region and for the world would be catastrophic. If it's all bluster and just about giving China a kick in the teeth and putting them in place, then it's a dangerous gamble. China is the one country in the world unlikely to back down against Trumpian pressure. The trouble is, Trump can't afford to back down either. It's back to the bad old days of brinkmanship.

Trump vows to stick to his tariff plan

It hasn't taken long for the doubters in the Republican party in the US to start voicing their concerns about Donald Trump's world tariff war. As they see their invstments plummet in value, it's hardly surprising that even Trump supporters are beginnning to worry that the president has an obsession rather than a policy. But it seems nothing will sway Trump from his course of action. He seems to believe that at some point in the future - who knows when? - the benefits from the tariff war will start to bring benefits for the US economy and for the American people. He better be right because the reason, or one of the main reasons, why millions voted for him and not for Kamala Harris was because he promised to make America great again and that, to them, meant the economy up and the cost of living down. So far it has been the opposite. Growth in the economny has stagnated and the cost of living rises every day. How long will everyone's patience last? Trump doesn't seem remotely bothered. He has said he is enjoying what's going on and doesn't mind about the stock market dropping faster than a malfunctioning rocket. And everyone in the White House, from the press secretary to Trump's economic advisers, are pushing the same line, that all will come right in the end. It doesn't look very hopeful so far.

Trump deadline to Iran on nuke deal gets closer

Donald Trump certainly knows how to up the ante. He gave Tehran until May to start negotiating a deal to suspend or end its nuclear programme and the time is drawing fast. Meanwhile he has sent six B-2 Spirit bombers to Diega Garcia in preparation for what one can only imagine is a potential massive attack on Iran's nuke facilities. The fact that Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington today means the two men will talk about Iran and what their two countries can do together to strike at Iran. At the moment the extraordinary presence of six B-2s in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean is clearly aimed at putting maximum pressure on Tehran to start negotiations....or else. With the world's financial markets in chaos over Trump's tariff war the last thing the planet needs is a new war in the Middle East. But that's the way it's being played from the White House. I can see Trump's thick pen poised for his next big venture. Joe Biden did nothing about Iran's nuke programme. Trump is not going to let it go. It's possible that the ayatollahs will get the message.

Israel cuts Gaza into slices

The Israel Defence Forces have now carved three security corridors across Gaza in the hope and expectation of finshing off Hamas once and for all. There's the Philadelphi corridor that runs on the Gaza side of the border in the south with Egypt, the Netzarin corridor that splits the territory between the north, including Gaza City, and the south, and now a new one, the Morag corridor, that separates the southern town of Rafah from Khan Yunis. These are the two towns, especially Rafah, where the IDF's 36th Division is currently focusing most of its offensive action against Hamas. The carve-up is aimed at putting maximum pressure on Hamas, and the population of Gaza has to fit in wherever it's less dangerous. But there's nowhere that can be described as safe for civilians in Gaza, as the continuing casualty rate demonstrates. Benjamin Netanyahu will be in Washington tomorrow, being feted by Donald Trump at the White House, so he will feel invigorated that he has the US fully back on side. He never really knew where he stood with Joe Biden. Joe worried a lot about civilian deaths and even at one point stopped supplying Israel with the heaviest 2,000lb bombs because of their indiscriminate explosive power in built-up areas. I am not aware of any such reservations expressed by the new administration, so Netanyahu will get what he wants from Trump when he has his chat in Washington tomorrow. For the Palestinian people, the war continues in a daily unrelenting way.

Putin won't back down

There is no rasson why Vladimir Putin will ever back down, even if it means annoying Donald Trump. He will see how the world has reacted against Trump over his global tariffs war and he will be happy that he can dictate the way the war in Ukraine will go whatever Trump does or says. Right now, Trump probably thinks he looks strong and unbeatable by taking on the world over trade. But Putin will feel confident that it will soon put Trump on the defensive and that that will make him weak. Once again, Putin will win. He won't budge over his demands that there will be no ceasefire in Ukraine until the so-called "root causes" of the Ukraine issue are dealt with. In other words, he wants Ukraine to become the equivalent of a territorial eunachy, a non-country with no army and no future and no friends and allies. Meanwhile he will keep pounding Ukraine every day, further crushing the will power of the Ukrainian people to fight on. Trump's grand master plan to end the war in Ukraine, bring peace to Gaza, and make America Great Again with tariffs on everything being imported into the country could all go horribly wrong.

Tariff war chaos in the markets

I don't know whether Donald Trump anticipated all the chaos that would follow his declaration of global tariffs on all foreign goods coming into the country. But if he did, then he probably thought it was fine because in the end, he hopes, the United States will blossom and bloom and be the richest nation on earth bar none. So he won't mind that China has retaliated with 34 per cent tariffs on all American imports and he won't care if the European Union smacks 20 per cent tariffs on American goods. It's all part of the disruption strategy, or turmoil tactics, which he hopes will turn the globalised world upside down and convert the US into a Fortress economy. Foreigners keep out. And he's prepared to wait for this to happen, even if companies go under, the cost of living rises, and the world's trade patterns go to pot. But, of course, he won't be able to wait for ever. Sometime in the next six months, there is going to be an explosion of resentment and anger in the US, as prices continue to rise and rise. Trump loves, in facts needs, to be popular and if the polls show he is fast becoming the most unpopular president since, say, Nixon, then he might have to to change his tune and start backing down. But right now, it's full steam ahead.

Tariffs to the left and tariffs to the right

Right now it's very difficult and confusing to work out exactly what Donald Trump's plan is. The basic goal is relatively simple. To make tariffs on imported goods so high that US businesses and industry will all be forced to buy American to survive which would encourage manufacturers to expand and employ more people to meet the huge new demand. Thus, in Trump's dream plan, the United States of America, already one of the richest countries in the world, will become even wealthier. Never mind other countries, especially the poor ones. But there are a lot ifs and buts here. What if US companies just stick with their foreign customers and pay the extra for the time being in the hope that the tariffs will go away. At the moment, the whole world is up in arms, condemning Trump's tariff war and if there is a mighty backlash against his policy, there could be a massive disruption in trade which will affect American businesses as much as anyone else's. Countries such as China, in fact especially China, as well as the European Union, are going to retaliate with their own tariffs on American goods. It's a vicious circle with no end.

Israel goes back to full war against Hamas

Exploiting what the Israeli government sees as growing antipathy towards Hamas among Palestinians in Gaza, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) are to launch a large-scale expansion of its military operations to seize and occupy more territory. It’s the biggest gamble taken by Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, since the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas was agreed on January 17. Outlining the military plan, Israel’ Katz, the defence minister, announced that large areas of the Strip would be seized, with Rafah and Khan Yunis in the south appearing to be the principal targets. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who had made their way back to their homes in southern Gaza after the ceasefire deal was announced are now being ordered to leave in a mass evacuation. They have been told to move to the town of Al-Mawasi, located along the coast, an area about nine miles long and less than a mile wide which had previously been designated as a humanitarian zone. The strategy behind the expanded military ground operation became clear when the defence minister directly called on all Gazans to join with Israel in ending Hamas rule in the enclave. “I call on the residents of Gaza to act now to eliminate Hamas and return the kidnapped,” Katz said in his statement. The aim, he said, was to clear the area of militants and their infrastructure. “This is the only way to end the war,” he said. The new territory targeted would be incorporated into what Katz called “security zones”. Netanyahu and his war cabinet have been encouraged by the recent protests by hundreds of Palestinians against Hamas in northern Gaza. However, there remain 59 hostages out of the 250 kidnapped by Hamas on 7 October, 2023. Of those, only 24 are believed to be alive. Netanyahu who has been under persistent pressure by the families of the hostages to negotiate their release, is gambling that the massive expansion of the war will end the hostage crisis and bring them home. The Hostage Familes’ Forum which represents the relatives of those being held by Hamas, said families were “horrified to wake up this morning” to hear the defence minister’s statement of expanded ground operations. The Israeli government was obligated, the forum said, to free all the hostages and “to pursue every possible channel to advance a deal for their release”. After the failure of an agreement between Israel and Hamas to move to phase two of the ceasefire framework, Israel returned to bombing Hamas targets and ordered ground troops back into Gaza. about two weeks ago. A stretch of land, known as the Netzarim Corridor, separating north from south, from which the IDF had withdrawn in February, was seized back. It was the first sign of Israel’s renewed determination to focus on military action rather than peaceful negotiation to force Hamas to stop fighting and release the remaining hostages. Netanyahu blamed Hamas for the breakdown in the ceasefire talks held in Qatar. Under the ceasefire agreement signed on 19 January with the US, Qatar and Egypt acting as mediators, a three-phase proposal was drawn up. The first phase, leading to the release of 33 hostages in exchange for 1,900 Palestinian prisoners held in Israel was completed on 1 March. The second phase should have included the release of all remaining hostages and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. When the talks broke down, Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s special envoy, suggested an extended phase one arrangement under which more hostages would be freed., but without any further commitment to ending the war. That so-called “bridging proposal” faltered. Hamas blames Israel for the breakdown in the ceasefire talks. Israel’s response has been to call on the IDF’s 36th Division to launch a major operation against Hamas and to return to mass evacuation of Gazans.

America's secret war in Ukraine

The US-led “save-Ukraine” military coalition was always more than just a production line of arms deliveries to the Kyiv government. Much of what has been going on over the last three years has been secret: a covert collaboration between Ukraine and the West involving commanders at the highest level, and special forces out of uniform. How much of the clandestine activities that began almost as soon as Russia invaded Ukraine was suspected by Moscow is unknown. But the full range of the extraordinary partnership between Ukraine and the West has now been revealed after a year-long investigation by Adam Entous, a reporter on The New York Times. While the sheer detail of the covert meetings and level of high-powered cooperation provides an insight for the first time into the extent of the military relationship developed between Kyiv and the US, there is an inevitable sense of impending gloom that all this intense partnership-building is going to be thrown away because of the determination of President Trump to end the war with a deal that can only favour Moscow and undermine Ukraine’s security future. The manner in which the 20-year campaign in Afghanistan was negotiated away by the first Trump administration in a deal which favoured the Taliban, and disastrously implemented when President Joe Biden came to power, should have provided a sufficient lesson for avoiding similar humiliations. But the momentum for a deal to end the war in Ukraine, however unrealistic it might seem today, is already having an effect on US/Ukrainian military collaboration. Some elements of the partnership are being wound down. The revelations in The New York Times demonstrate how intimately the US has been involved in operational strategy, targeting policy and command decision-making. The Pentagon would always insist that operational and targeting decisions were a matter for the Kyiv government. But the US, and Britain, were as close to being fellow orchestrators of the battles with Russian forces as could be without actually having boots on the ground. Two months after Vladimir Putin’s invasion force crossed the border into Ukraine on 24 February, 2022, a convoy of unmarked cars drove the 400 miles from Kyiv to the Polish border. Protected by British special forces troops in civilian clothes, the convoy contained two Ukrainian generals. They were driven to Rzeszow-Jasionka airport, flown by C-130 Hercules transport aircraft to Wiesbaden in Germany, home of US Army Europe and Africa., and ushered into the office of Lieutenant-General Christopher Donahue, commander of the 18th Airborne Corps and a former leader of the US Delta Force special forces unit. Donahue, according to the report, proposed a special partnership, and so began what would become a remarkable cooperative relationship to defend Ukraine from the Russian invasion force and to stop Putin from fulfilling his dream of overpowering and neutralising a country whose sovereignty and independence he never acknowledged or recognised. Wiesbaden was the heart of the effort by the western coalition to feed Kyiv with the weapons they needed. After the meeting with Donahue, plans began to supply American M777 artillery batteries and 155mm shells to Kyiv to help Ukraine take the war to the Russian frontlines. Over three years, the Pentagon delivered $66.5 billion of weaponry, including 10,000 Javelin anti-armour missiles, 3,000 Stinger anti-aircraft systems and 76 tanks, all masterminded through Wiesbaden. A Polish general was appointed Donahue’s deputy and a British general was put in charge of the logistics hub. The operation was called Task Force Dragon. The key Ukrainian in this warfighting partnership was General Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi. “My mission [in Wiesbaden] was to find out: who is this General Donahue? What is his authority? How much can he do for us?” he told The New York Times. Later he sent a message back to Kyiv which said: “A lot of countries wanted to support Ukraine. But somebody needed to be the coordinator, to organise everything, to solve the current problems and figure out what we need in the future. We have found our partner.” Wiesbaden was the mission command centre and the place where the Americans provided such a comprehensive intelligence-based picture of the battlefield and the potential targets within it that one European official was quoted in the report as saying: “They [the Americans] are part of the kill chain now.” A team of 20 Ukrainian intelligence officers, planners and communicators arrived in Wiesbaden and every morning they would sit down with the Americans “to survey Russian weapons systems and ground forces and determine the ripest, highest-value targets”. However, if Ukraine wanted to attack targets inside Russia, they were told they would have to use their own intelligence. In mid-2022, using American intelligence and targeting information, the Ukrainians launched rockets at the headquarters of Russia’s feared battle groups of the 58th Combined Arms Army in Kherson, killing generals and staff officers. When the huge Russian army unit moved to another location, the US tracked them and the Ukrainians hit them again. It wasn’t always a smooth partnership. Sometimes, the Ukrainian commanders resented the advice they were being given and went their own way. Increasingly, they also became frustrated by the reluctance of the Biden administration to provide all the weapons they were demanding in the early stages of the war, especially the longer-range rockets, such as the ATACMS systems with a range of 190 miles. Gradually, the Biden administration got bolder and less fearful that Putin might turn to tactical nuclear weapons if he judged the US coalition was crossing a dangerous red line in supporting Kyiv. ATACMS weren’t delivered until October, 2023 but were barred from being used to hit targets inside Russia until nearly a year later. However, while this debate was being argued in the public domain, Washington was secretly approving covert missions to help the Ukrainian military. “Time and again, the Biden administration authorised clandestine operations it had previously prohibited. American military advisers were dispatched to Kyiv and later allowed to travel closer to the fighting. Military and CIA officers in Wiesbaden helped plan and support a campaign of Ukrainian strikes in Russian-annexed Crimea,” the paper’s report said.

Putin says he is happy to talk to Trump

Vladimir Putin doesn't want Donald Trump to be pissed off with him. If Joe Biden had been pissed off with him he wouldn't have bothered get out of bed. But with Trump it's different. This is because Putin realises it's better to keep on the friendly side with Trump to stop shimhim going ahead with his threat to impose massively tough tariffs on Russia, including heavy penalties on any country that buys Russian oil and gas. This really could harm Russia's economny and screw over Putin's plan to carry on fighting Ukraine. Whatever Putin says about agreeing a ceasefire or whatever, what he really wants to do is continue bombing Ukraine until there is nothing left to bomb. A bit like what the Israelis are doing to Gaza, except, of course, Gaza is tiny and Ukraine is huge. But if Trump is genuinely angry with him, then Putin will be in a tricky position. So he has let it be known through his Kremlin spokesman that he would be happy to get a call from Trump. They haven't spoken for a bit. This is the first sign of Putin backing down, or at least taking a softer line. He wants Trump to carry on with his deal-making even if he really doesn't want any sort of deal with Zelensky. What he needs is for the negotiations in Saudi Arabia to carry on because it then looks as if Moscow is playing ball, even if it's all a scam. So, expect a call between Trump and Putin in the next few weeks so that a smiling Putin can tell the world that Trump is not pissed off with him after all but is his jolly good friend.

Trump gets angry with Putin

It just shows how the great instant end-of-war-in-Ukraine promise from Donald Trump is slowly going to pot. Now he says he is very angry that Putin has dared to cast aspersions on the leadership role of Volodymyr Zelensky as the bona fide president of Ukraine. Putin has said there can be no ceasefire deal or eventual peace settlement if the signature on the Ukrainian side comes from Zelensky. Putin wants a temporary new leader in place who he feels will have more legitimacy, ie more pro-Moscow, and he even puts it out there that a United Nationa transition government could be acceptable. Trump sees that as another delaying tactic by Putin because it would all take too much time to bring in a new government. Trump, no friend of Zelensky, wants Zelensky in charge in Kyiv because he thinks he can force through a deal while the formker stand-up comedian is the president. Somehow, I doubt Putin will worry too much about "pissing off" Trump. It's all part of the game which he is currently winning hands down.

JD Vance gets the chills in Greenland

Apparently no one told the US vice president that it's pretty cold in Greenland. He arrived for his unofficial, unwanted visit with his wife, the Second Lady, and confessed he couldn't believe how freezing it was. A basic bit of pre-flight homework would have given him a few facts that might have includedd the average temperature in Greenland. It's in the Arctic by the way, Mr Vice President, and that means it's literally below freezing every day of the year. The highest tenmperature could be about 5.6 degrees Centigrade if you arrive on a good day. About 80 per cent of Greenland is covered in ice. I don't think Vance was aware of this and maybe he will go back to Washington and warn Trump that he's wasting his time and taxpayers' money if he wants to grab Greenland. I doubt he will be making a return trip. So, perhaps the unwelcome visit by Vance and his wife might after all have been the best thing for the islanders who, thank you very much Washington, would like to say under the venerable ownership of Denmark.

If Trump gives Putin what he wants he will demand more

The way things are going so far in the negotiations wqith Moscow, Vladimir Putin is going to get what he wants. But the fact is that if you give someone like Putin what he wants he will demand more and more. Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy for Ukraine, has said he thinks Putin is a smart guy and he's right. This is why it's even more important to pile the pressure on the Russian president and use as much leverage as possible to force him to back down and to call off the war. But there is no incentive for Putin to back down an inch because he knows that Trump is prepared to give him anything provided he brings the deaths and destruction to an end. Putin knows Trump is desperate to fulfill his promise which was to end the war in 24 hours. That has patently failed. So, Putin's tactic is to accept or to pretend to accept little bits here and there but not giving a centimetre of movement on his key demands. Trump is so consumed by the thought of having Ukraine's rare minerals, gas and oil, that he seems prepared to concede to all or most of Putin's demands in order to sign up the business deal and leave the Europeans to work out the peacekeeping responsibilities. My fear is that if there is ever a ceasefire and the Europeans really do send peacekeeping troops into Ukraine there will come a moment when Europe and Russia will be at war with each other. Not necessarily on a grand scale but on the battlefield frontlines in Ukraine. Soldiers from both sides will die. Moscow is never gpoing to back down.

Should Europe worry about JD Vance and Pete Hegseth?

It's difficult to remember a time when the most senior officials in a US administration were so rude and antagonistic about Europe. Both Vice President JD Vance and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth vented their dislike of all things Europe in the now notorious Signal group chat about bombing the Houthis. Hegseth said he loathed Europe. It sounds like he needs to spend time with his family in, say, Florence or Paris or Barcelona or take in a show in London and go down the Rhine in a small cruise liner, and perhaps then he might warm towards us. We're really not that bad and, as far as we can, we certainly try and do our stuff militarily to keep the world a safer place. Any time the US wants to do something with its army or navy mor air force, we, the Brits, generally join them. Ok, Harold Wilson, the long-serving Labour prime minister way back refused to send British troops to Vietnam but other than that, the UK has served alongside American comrades all over the world. Like Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. So, this driving hatred for Europe is based on a not unfamiliar ignorance of what Europe is about. As far as the Hegseths and Vances of this world are concerned, the US does everything and Europe are just freeloaders. It's not true but what IS true is that the US is a military superpower - we are not - and as the leading nation of the Nato alliance, does more than anyone to try and stop the world from entering a new devastating war. So, we are blessed to have America on our side and long may it last. But we really don't need the Americans, any Americans, to loathe us and disparage us all the time. We're allies and friends and comrades-in-arms.

Putin winning all the way

Whatever way you look at it, Vladimir Putin is winning the Ukraine war debate so far. The tewmporary partial ceasefire stopping attacks on energy facilities and the so-called ceasefire to end strikes on the Black Sea suit Putin as much as Zelensky and in return the Russian president is going to get more goodies, such as a lifting of some economic sanctions. Win, win, win. No details yet but it will be making Putin smile. And he has effectively been promised by Trump and his negotiators that if the war ends, Ukraine will never be a member of Nato and will be so reduced in size as a country that it will be like having a sovereignty-lite existence. Trump has now been in office for eight weeks and with two mini ceasefires under his belt, it could take months and months to finalise the end-of-war deal, if it's going to happen at all. But at least the show is on the road, even though it doesn't give Zelensky and the Ukrainian people much hope for the future. What we can't have is what is happening in Gaza, with full-scale war back again after the brief ceasefire and release of some hostages. More and more Palestinians are going to be killed. With the focus on the war in Ukraine, the efforts to stop the killing in Gaza seem to have run out of steam.

Journalist listens in on top secret Trump administration discussions about Houthi bombings

It was the invitation all journalists would die for: please join our Signal encrypted discussions about how and when we are going to bomb the Houthis. It seems beyond belief but this is what happened with Jeffrey Goldberg, editor of the Atlantic magazine in the US and his initials, JG, were duly included in the long list of top Trump officials, including Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, Michael Waltz, national security adviser, Marco Rubio, secretary of state, and JP Vance, vice president. Oh my goodness, was this going to be an eye opener for the innocent journalist sitting back and getting a flow of highly personal and classified and insightful texts from the other participants, including all the details about the planned bombing, what type of weapons would be used, timings and targets. JG sat silent throughout, imagining for much of the time that it was all a hoax or a giant piece of comic theatre to somehow undermine his magazine. But no, it was all authentic. JG knew everything about the Houthi bombings two hours before they happened. Trump, meanwhile, was in ignorance of these unwise chats and when asked to comment on the huge breach of security admitted he hadn't read the Atlantic article and knew nothing about it. Oh my goodness, whoops indeed!

Trump goes full throttle for Houthis

Trump has now sent a second aircraft carrier to start hitting the Houthis big time. While the Houthis deserve everything they get for literally disrupting the world's container-ship deliveries around the globe with drone and rocket attacks, even two mighty US carriers will prtobably not be able to eliminate the Houthi threat. This rebel group in Yemen have managed to construct an underground empire of arms manufacturing which cannot be reached by ordinary bombs. How they have done it is not clear but I guess with Iranian construction assistance. Iran has likewise buried all their most sensitive and lethal weaponry under mountains, including of course their clandestine nuclear programme. So, however many bombs dropped by the aircraft on board the two carriers, the bunkered drone and rocket building production lines will probably survive the onslaught. Only a full-scale ground operation could eliminate the Houthis and that's not going to happen. Bombing from the air is always the favoured option but as past operations by the Saudi-led coalition of Gulf states have shown, airtsrikes never win victories, they just cause massive damage and, inevitably, civilian deaths. Unfortunately, groups like the Houthis have learnt to become super-resilient. And with continuing help from Tehran, they will carry on their attacks on shipping.

Elon Musk at the Pentagon

Elon Musk is getting a bird's eye view of pretty well everything to do with running the government, including it seems how the Pentagon would address a war with China, according to the New York Times. If accurate, it would be a highly unusual development for someone who is unelected, despite his closeness to Trump, getting a classified briefing on such a controversial and need-to-know subject. Of course Musk is boss of Space X and his low-orbiting satellites are a brilliant addition to the Pentagon's surveillance and early-warning networks. But to present him with the plan for going to war with China, if that is what happens at the meeting in the Pentagon today, he will be one of the privileged few to be trusted with such information. It demonstrates the extraordinary role Trump has given Musk. He's a roving right-hand man, keeping watch on behalf of the president,on every aspect of the government machine. I guess his next visit will be to the CIA and the other intelligence services. Every government department and agency will at some stage have to be "Musked". That's the way Trump wants it.

Keir Starmer sticks to his peacekeeping plan for Ukraine

You have to admire him. Keir Starmer, along with President Macron, came up with this idea of having a European peacekeeping force ready to go to Ukraine in the event of a Trump/Putin peace settlement and has been pushing it as if it's almost a done deal. Today a whole bunch of political and military types from Europe are assembled in London to talk logistics, operational rules of engagement, troop numbers, back-up support etc etc. Starmer himself has talked about reaching the operational stage of his peacekeeping plan. But first, there is no sign of a longlasting peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, and second, Putin has said he will never agree to a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine. So, which part of "will never allow" does Starmer not understand? But Starmer is just ignoring what's going on in Washington and Moscow and Jeddah and focusing all his efforts on preparing the ground and the politics for a largish-scale force that will hopefully a defined mission although I fail to see what the mission could be. There won't be enough troops available to stand side to side along the Ukraine/Russia border, and there won't be enough troops to guard every town and city, and there will never be enough troops available to go to war with Russia if Russia decides to take on the peacekeeping force. So, the whole idea is filled with dangers and unknowns and huge risks. But Starmer is carrying on doing his thing and good luck to him.

Trump's blunt-force diplomacy

There's a new type of diplomacy around and it belongs to Donald Trump. It's called blunt-force diplomacy. To diplomats it's anathema because diplomacy is what it says it is, behind-the-scene, gentle wooing and intellectual persuasion. The Trump approach which Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, is trying to echo but it doesn't look easy for him, is in-your-face-stuff, like when he turned on Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House and tore him apart for daring to question his motives for ending the war in Ukraine. It wasn't even a stick-and-carrot situation, or a soft-cop-hard-cop scenario because the other protagonist in the room, Vice President JD Vance, gave Zelensky the third degree as well. So blunt force is the way ahead, although how much tough talking was involved in the Trump chat with Putin we will never know. It sounds like the two were very amicable. Trump probably never once raised his voice, let alone delivered any blunt-force questioning. This means Trump reserves his tough talking for people who are vulnerable like Zelensky and observes the more traditonal form of diplomacy for people like Putin. Now it seems Trump is trying to get the Chinese leader, President Xi Zinping, to meet him. I doubt he will use the blunt-force approach with him because if he did, he wouldn't get anywhere.

Potentially an historic day but not for Ukraine

Two hours have been set aside for the phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin today to try and weave some sort of deal to end the war in Ukraine. From remarks made by Trump so far it could be a carve-up of territory a la the Yalta agreement after the Second World War. Ukraine at present doesn't have a voice. Zelensky won't be sitting in on the phone call. He will remain in ignorance of the jousting that will go on between Trump and Putin, and when it's all over, it will be presented to him like a done deal. Russia can have this piece of territory and that piece of territory and this nuclear power plant and that hydroelectic plant and this city and that city and Ukraine can have what's left. That's about it. Whether this brings the war to an end is another matter. If it really is going to be this sort of carve-up then Zelensky will never give it his blessing and the whole of Europe will be up in arms. However it comes out I don't see Britain and France being allowed to send in troops to monitor the so-called peace deal. If every European leader rejects the Trump-Putin deal, how could they possibly oversee a peacekeeping force in Ukraine? It would just add to Europe's humiliation. Theoretically it could be an historic day today in terms of bringing the terrible three-year war to an end, but it could be the worst possible day for Zelensky and for Ukraine and for the thousands of people living in the "annexed" regions in eastern Ukraine who will have to live under Russian occupation for the rest of their lives.

Donald Trump 1, Judge James Boasberg, 0

It was a close-run race but Donald Trump and his Justice Department just managed to get hundreds of suspected Venezuelan gangsters out of the country heading for El Salvadore before Washington District Judge James Boasberg issued his suspension of all flights containing deported Venezuelans. By the time the court order was signed and ready to go, Trump's deportees were within about an hour and a half of landing in El Salvadore. Too late to turn them around even though the judge declared that any flights already in the air should turn back to the US. That was never going to be enforceable, especially with an administration determined to push ahead with its mass deportation programme, irrespective of what federal judges try to do to stop the flights. The basis of the confrontation between Trump and the courts is the president's use of an ancient war act to justify the deportations. The 1798 Alien Enemies Act was introduced specifically to deal with unwanted alien migrants during a war or invasion. Judge Boasberg said the US was not facing a war and, therefore, the deportation of the Venezuelans, albeit suspected members of drugs gangs, was not legal. A White House statement said otherwise and said an appeal would be made to a higher court. Either way, the judge lost this one. The near-300 Venezuelans, criminals or not, are now housed in El Salvador's notorious maximum security prison which can house up to 40,000 gang members for an indefinite time. There is no chance the president of El Salvadore, a fan of Trump's, is going to send them back to the US. There's not a lot Judge Boasberg can do, except fume.

Rubio and Lavrov in phone chat get-together

For nearly three years there was almost no communication between Washington and Moscow. Now it's becoming a regular ocurrence. Trump talks to Putin, Marco Rubio chats to Sergey Lavrov, his counterpart, Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, meets up with Putin. It's all going on and one can only hope that out of all this communication something will emerge which will benefit mankind, as well as the Ukainian people. It's a big hope which right now looks unrealistic. But you never know, it might make all the difference just for the fact that the two adversaries are actually talking to each other. Even better, if they get on and get friendly, then good things might materialise. The bugbear is not Trump but Putin. The Russian leader has been around so long that he knows all the tricks. He knows that if he plays along he will probably get what he wants in the end. Trump wants quick action to end the war in Ukraine for starters and it's in Putin's hands to deliver. But it looks like it's going to taken a helluva lot more phone chats and meetings before this is going to happen. In fact it will only really be when Trump and Putin meet for a summit that a deal might be brokered. It all seems pie-in-the-sky at the moment becusue Putin is not budging from his position of wanting Ukraine neutralised, demilitarised and without any form of US or Nato security backing. But you never know. Trump claims to be the world's best dealer. This is his biggest challenge.

Putin believes, like Trump does, that he has all the cards

It's clear that Vladimir Putin is not in any hurry. All he has to do is say he supports the US-proposed 30-day ceasefire and then get on with what he wants to do which is to push ahead as far and fast as he can to grab more territory in eastern Ukraine and drive the Ukrainian forces out of Kursk in western Russia. He thinks he is - and he IS - in a much stronger position than Zelensky who is now desperate for a peace deal. Putin's troops are successfully hammering away at the Ukrainian troops who seized a large chunk of Kursk last August and are in the process of forcing them back over the border. Until a ceasefire agreement comes into play, if it ever does, Putin will do his best to seize more territory and destroy more of Ukraine's energy power plants. The only real pressure he is getting is coming from Trump, not Zelensky or Zelensky's army, and at some point he will have to make up his mind whether to stay friends with Trump abd therefore meet him half way over stopping the fighting or break from the Americans altogether and plough on as before. But Putin is a clever calculator. He will want to keep Trump on side but without doing any favours to Zelensky whom he loathes. On the surface it doesn't look as if Putin is remotely interested in a peace deal, at least not now. He has too much to sort out in Ukraine before he is prepared to really start negotiating. Yet at the same time he doesn't want to enrage Trump who might do what he is threatening to do which is to strangle Russia economically. But, again, Putin has all the cards because he knows full well that Trump's threat is bluster. Trump doesn't want to act against Moscow, not while there is even the remotest chance of a peace deal to end the war. So Putin will bide his time and see what happens.

Why does Poland want nukes?

Nukes are becoming a big issue for Poland. One way or another, both the Polish president and prime minister want their country to host tactical nuclear weapons as a deterrent to President Putin’s Russia. In the latest, but by no means the first, statement on this question, President Andrzej Duda has revealed he recently discussed locating American tactical nukes in Poland with Keith Kellogg, the US special envoy for Ukraine. In an interview with the Financial Times, Duda said:”I think it’s not only that the time has come but that it would be safer if those weapons were already here.” At the same time, Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister and former President of the European Council, has indicated an interest in Poland developing its own nuclear weapons as well as building an army of half a million soldiers to stand up to potential Russian aggression in the future. Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, nuclear rhetoric has become increasingly escalatory. Putin has threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, most recently justifying such use if long-range conventionally-armed missiles supplied by a western nuclear power - the US, France or the UK - posed an existential threat to Russia. (Tactical nukes are short-range and designed for the battlefield, as opposed to strategic weapons with a range of thousands of miles and capable of annihilating cities). Putin, in making his case for why he invaded Ukraine, has blamed Nato for its expansion programme which absorbed all the eastern European countries that were formerly part of the Warsaw Pact. Two of his demands for a resolution to the war across Russia’s border is for Ukraine to be demilitarised and barred from ever joining the western alliance. This is where the nukes issue comes in. Poland has adopted the most ambitious and, from the Kremlin’s point of view, most confrontational approach vis a vis Russia with a number of significant proposals to Washington: building a base in the country for the permanent deployment of a US armoured division, hosting an American Aegis Ashore missile defence system (operational since December 2023 at Redzikowo in northern Poland), and, now, housing US air-launched tactical nukes. The sense of urgency in the Polish president’s oft-repeated plea for American nukes gathered pace after Putin, without so much as a by-your-leave, deployed Russian tactical weapons to Belarus in the summer of 2023. Belarus is Russia’s strongest and most loyal ally which provided an additional launch pad for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. When Poland first raised the possibility of deploying US tactical nukes on Polish territory, President Joe Biden reacted without enthusiasm. His whole approach was not to make any move that might seem dangerously escalatory. This was why he delayed for so long sending long-range missiles to Ukraine and then, even when he changed his mind, imposing a limited use of them for striking targets inside Russia. President Trump’s strategy is focused on ending the war and it seems unlikely he would announce he is contemplating installing tactical nuclear weapons in Poland as an added incentive to Putin to agree a peace settlement. In any case, it’s President Duda advocating this proposal, it’s not the official policy of Prime Minister Tusk’s government. As a member of Nato, Poland is represented on the alliance’s Nuclear Planning Group. Warsaw is, therefore, signed up to the nuclear-sharing strategy under which the US locates bomber-armed tactical nuclear weapons at installations throughout Europe. An estimated 100-150 US B61 nuclear bombs are stored in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. There is one nuclear base in each country, with the exception of Italy which has two. Under current policy, enshrined in commitments made to Moscow in the Nato-Russia Founding Act, signed in Paris on 27 May, 1997, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the alliance has pledged it has “no intention, no plan and no reason” to deploy nuclear weapons on the territories of member states which joined the alliance after 1997. Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic were the first former Warsaw Pact countries to be accepted in the alliance, in 1999. They were followed five years later by another seven countries, including the three Baltic nations of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia. Allowing Poland to host US tactical nuclear weapons would abrogate that commitment, although the invasion of Ukraine and the fears of further Russian aggression in eastern Europe, have potentially created a new “reason” for expanding or revising Nato’s nuclear-sharing strategy. Sixty-three years ago, the attempt by the Soviet Union to station medium- and intermediate-range ballistic nuclear missiles in Cuba led to the gravest confrontation between Moscow and Washington. The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis has served as a benchmark ever since for the risks posed by nuclear brinkmanship. Today, the confrontation with Moscow is not on such a world-threatening scale, in spite of Trump’s warning to Kyiv that it’s potentially provoking a Third World War. However, for Poland, on the frontline, the role of nuclear weapons as a deterrent has increasingly become a highly personal issue.

Putin's Ukraine war dilemma

With all the positives coming out of the Jeddah talks about a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, there is only one question that needs to be answered: will President Putin be interested in any sort of deal right now? President Trump is convinced that Putin wants peace. But if the Russian leader really wants to bring his war to an end, will he do so on America’s terms or wait until he has fulfilled one of his main objectives which is the total subjugation of the four provinces in eastern Ukraine that he claimed he had annexed in the first seven months of the invasion. At a ceremony in St George’s Hall at the Kremlin in September, 2022, Putin declared that Russia now had four new regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The residents of these regions, he said, were “our citizens for ever”. Even though the Russian invasion troops had only partially occupied these regions, Putin made it clear he considered the annexations were a fait accompli and demanded Kyiv agree to an immediate ceasefire. Nearly 30 months later, Putin has still not won control over every scrap of land in these four regions. For example, Russian troops have failed to hold on to the cities of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Kherson, a gateway to Moscow-annexed Crimea, fell to the Russians in March, 2022 but was liberated by Ukrainian forces on 11 November, the same year. Ukraine controls Zaporizhzhia but the Russians seized and occupied the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. This is unfinished business for Putin. When Trump became president and the two leaders, “old friends”, had a relationship-warming 90-minute chat on the phone, Putin must have concluded that his plans for eastern Ukraine might actually bear fruit. AfterTrump fell out with Volodymyr Zelensky last month and announced a suspension of military aid and partial withdrawal of intelligence-sharing, the Russian leader will surely have instructed his commanders on the battlefield to go all out to seize back Kherson and fully occupy the four regions he already considered Russian territory. So, does he have any incentive to play ball after Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, emerged from the nine-hour discussions in Jeddah with Zelensky’s negotiators armed with the 30-day ceasefire offer, and throwing down the gauntlet to Moscow? “The ball is now in Russia’s court. It’s going to be up to them to say yes or no,” Rubio said. Putin won’t have much time to make up his mind. Trump said he would give Putin a ring this week and he is reportedly sending his heavyweight, tough-guy billionaire special envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow to have a face-to-face with the Russian president. Witkoff has a reputation for never taking no for an answer. When Benjamin Netanyahu baulked at meeting him to talk about a ceasefire in Gaza because the day selected by Witkoff was the Sabbath, the Trump man just told him he would be coming and that was it. Netanyahu caved. The chances are that Putin will play along with Trump’s quest for peace in Ukraine because there is an unstoppable momentum to end the fighting, and his strategic partner in Beijing is supportive of a deal. However, what will rub Putin the wrong way is if the 30-day ceasefire agreed by Zelensky’s negotiators in Jeddah is followed by a proposal to freeze the battlefield frontlines as they stand today. Russian troops have been making territorial gains in the east, albeit limited, in recent weeks. Had Trump’s suspension of military aid and intelligence-sharing been maintained for any length of time, Putin might have had the opportunity to attempt a spring offensive to occupy more if not all of the four “annexed” regions. This is where Trump has played an astute card. The 30-day ceasefire proposal came with a promise to reinstate both US military aid and intelligence-sharing for the Kyiv government, effectively telling Putin that America is back on side with its European coalition partners and Zelensky will get what he wants to defend against Russian aggression. That just might make a difference in Putin’s calculations. Important, too, for him is the transformation in relations with the White House, a dramatic change in opportunities for Moscow after years of enduring a Cold War-style freeze. Putin is never going to break his partnership with China, whatever Trump is hoping for by wooing the Russian president. But it makes eminent sense for Putin to have a pick-up-the-phone relationship with Trump to give him the world-stage status he lost after ordering the invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022. So, all in all, Putin will gain more by accepting the 30-day ceasefire offer, provided the terms of any future peace settlement follow to the letter the demands he has been making repeatedly over the last three years. He may not persuade Trump and Zelensky to hand him the four regions he has painted red on his map of Ukraine . But if can get Trump to scrap all thought of Ukraine joining Nato and see even a limited pullback of alliance forces from eastern Europe, perhaps he might be tempted to place his signature on a settlement document. However, there are many unknowns: will Putin compromise on those four regions in eastern Ukraine? Will he even consider doing a deal while Zelensky is the leader in Kyiv? And would Nato ever agree to withdraw any of its forward-located forces from the alliance’s member nations closest to Russia’s borders?

This is Marco Rubio's moment

Strangely, all the pressure this time is not on Zelensky's "peace" negotiators now in Jeddah but on Marco Rubio, US secretary of state,,who has been given the task by Donald Trump of fixing some sort of settlement to end the war. Rubio, with two tough co-negotiators, Mike Waltz, national security adviser, and Steve Witkoff, special bruiser envoy for the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine, has to come away with something really positive. Not necessarily a wrapped-up agreemenbt, it's too early for that, but a strong pointer for Trump that the negotiating is going to achieve what he expects, a signed deal to end the war. Trump doesn't like failure and he is anticipating that Rubio will deliver. In a way, Rubio is the nice guy here and the other two, especially Steve Witkoff, are the heavy-duty ball-breakers who will apply blunt pressure on the Ukrainian delegation to offer meaningful concessions. Rubio told reporters travelling with him on the plane to Saudi Arabia that Ukraine would have to concede land but he did add that Russia should also be ready to make concessions. In the end, it will be a get-together between Putin and Trump, probably in Saudia Arabia, which will get the fine detail sorted out. But for the moment, it's Rubio's chance to make a name for himself. If he fails, Trump will not be best pleased, and Rubio could be on a short lease.