Tump gives Ukraine new intelligence gift

The war between Russia and Ukraine is about to change dramatically in Kyiv’s favour. President Trump has decided to help Kyiv target key energy installations inside Russia with long-range weapons by providing satellite imagery to guarantee precision strikes. Such a bold move, never considered appropriate or justified by the Biden administration, will take the battle further inside Russian territory, and potentially, cause catastrophic damage to President Putin’s war economy. The decision, reported in The Wall Street Journal, follows confirmation from Vice President JD Vance that Trump is also considering giving President Zelensky land-based Tomahawk cruise missiles. With a range of around 1,500 miles, Kyiv would possess one of America’s most successful combat weapon systems, capable of reaching Moscow from any point within Ukraine. Tomahawks, armed with conventional warheads, are normally associated with submarine-launched or ship-fired operations. But there is a ground-launched version developed for the US Army and Marine Corps which, if delivered to Ukraine, would add to Kyiv’s inventory of home-grown longe-range weapons which have already been used to target Russian oil refineries. Both the consideration of providing Tomahawks and the reported agreement to hand Kyiv intelligence of Russia’s strategic energy sites have raised the stakes beyond anything contemplated by Trump’s predecessor. President Biden was always wary of giving Ukraine’s President Zelensky the tools for striking deep inside Russia itself, concerned that it would provoke a dangerous escalation with Moscow. Even when he, belatedly, approved the dispatching of the US Army’s ATACMS ballistic missiles with a range of 190 miles, he imposed restrictions on their use if fired over the border into Russia. However, there were no limits placed on the use of US intelligence to help Ukraine pinpoint Russian troop positions, arms depots and tank movements inside Ukraine. US intelligence, both satellite images and electronic signals communications, was part of the package from the moment Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In the early days of the war, without this intelligence assistance, Ukraine would never have been able to achieve the battlefield successes which basically halted the Russian invasion force in its tracks. The most notable use of American intelligence during the first stages of the war was the sinking of the guided-missile cruiser, Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, on April 14, 2022. US naval intelligence and satellite imagery provided the coordinates for the warship on patrol in the Black Sea, and Ukraine fired two domestically-built Neptune anti-ship missiles which fatally hit Moskva about 80 nautical miles off the port of Odessa. The Pentagon under the Biden administration had one particular reservation about the Ukrainian military’s use of US intelligence inside Ukraine itself. A number of top Russian commanders were killed and it was reported their precise location had been pinpointed by American satellites. However, the Pentagon said this wasn’t the case. John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman at the time, said US intelligence would not have been provided to target individual Russian generals. Nevertheless, the role of intelligence in the more than three years of war has helped to balance out the superiority enjoyed by Russia in terms of both manpower and firepower. The CIA, the National Security Agency (NSA) and the full panoply of America’s intelligence apparatus have been intimately, though secretly, involved in guiding the Ukrainian military and providing advice on targeting policy, and early warning of Russian missile attacks and troop movements. In February last year The New York Times reported that Ukraine had built a special underground bunker, partly financed and equipped by the CIA, in which Ukrainian soldiers were able to track Russian spy satellites and eavesdrop on conversations between different Russian commanders and their units. It was also reported that the CIA helped to set up and support a dozen secret locations along the border with Russia from where Russian troop activity could be monitored. Now, Trump appears to have decided that the gloves should come off in terms of supplying Ukraine with intelligence, specifically aimed at striking Russia’s huge network of energy installations, such as refineries, oil pipelines and power stations. Putin is dependent on the sale of oil and natural gas to still-willing customers, such as China, India and Turkey, to fund the war with Ukraine. Trump dramatically reversed his view on Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russia when, after talking to Zelensky at the United Nations General Assembly in New York last month, he declared that Kyiv could after all seize back all the territory lost to the Russian troops. He said Putin was in deep economic trouble. Trump’s decision to extend the gift of intelligence to Kyiv to cover Russia’s energy infrastructure will be a huge blow to Moscow and could potentially persuade Putin to seek a negotiated settlement to save his war economy from ruin. NB:MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTh: buy from Amazon, Rowanvale Books, Waterstones.

Tomahawks for Ukraine would be gloves off

Donald Trump says he is considering sending Tomhawk land-attack cruise missiles to Ukraine so they can target Russian facilities. This would be a major development, even bigger impact-wise than anything the US has provided in the war so far. It would also mean that US technicians would be needed to help the Ukrainian military fire them. Trump may back off this idea, knowing that Putin would see it as a provocation too far and could lead to a huge escalation. But it just might also force Putin to rethink because support for the war in Russia is dwindling fast, especially now that Ukraine is increasingly targetinbg Russian oil refineries and powqer plants inside Russia, causing long queues for petrol everywhere. Tomahawks have a range of well over 1,000 miles and would give Kyiv the chance to attack sites closer and closer to Moscow. It could be devastating and as they are low-flying cruise missiles as they approach the target, they would be more difficult to shoot down. Trump has effectively given up on doing a deal with Putin and has handed over the war and the West's support for Kyiv to the Europeans. Providing Tomahawks might be Trump's last gauntlet-throwing to force Putin to negotiate. However, judging by Putin's past responses to western weaponry arriving in Ukraine, he is more likely to take the gloves off and attack Ukraine with even more ferocity and send more and more drones and missiles across Nato borders. It's a dangerously pivotal moment.

Watch out overweight American top brass!

No beards, no bellies, no women, no slackers. The US military and especially the 800 high-ranking generals and admirals, are all now on notice that sloveliness is out and fighting warrior stuff is in. Pete Hegseth, the US Secretary of Defence for War, is fed up with seeing overweight generals wandering around the corridors of the Pentagon. He wants them to get fit, do 100 press-ups a day and stop sitting at their desks stuffing themselves with burgers. It's all good fun and his address to the family of generals and admirals at the US Marine Corps base at Quantico in Virginia yesterday was greeted with total silence. My God, inwardly they must have been seething, except for the fat ones of course. They would have been looking around guiltily in case anyone had noticed their bulging bellies. In my time I have met a lot of American generals and admirals and the majority looked pretty fit. In fact the best of them, people like General David Petraeus and General Stanley McChrystal, were and are so lean and fit that they could outrun and outpush-up most soldiers half their age. Some of those who reach the top echelons of the US military do get broader in the beam when they reach their 50s and 60s, especially if they have desk jobs. But from now on they will have to adopt a different lifestyle, a different diet, and join the joggers every morning. It's going to be fun to watch. Hegseth was enjoying himself, especially as he has taken on a rigid fitness regime and looks in good physical shape. His commander-in-chief, however, could definitely lose a few pounds. He may be able to play golf but I can't see him making more than two or three press-ups. As for women and beards, Hegseth basically doesn't want either of them in the armed forces. Beards he sees as somehow degenerate for military personnel (NB Vice President JD Vance has a beard, Mr Secretary for War), and he doesn't think women could ever be strong enough to fight in combat. He's wrong but women from now on will face an even tougher challenge to get into combat units. I wish them well, to prove Hegseth wrong. Meanwhile, generals and admirals with bellies, you have your marching orders. Get rid of the bellies or resign.

Does Netanyahu really want Trump's peace plan for Gaza?

Benjamin Netanyahu shook Donald Trump's hand and smiled as the president announced his new 20-point peace plan for Gaza. So, everything was looking good! But no, not really. Netanyahu had to agree to the deal but he knows that it will never get past his most extreme conservative cabinet members who want Gaza to become an extension to the West Bank for Jewish settlers. Nor will Hamas leap at it because they will demand that all Israeli troops are withdrawn from Gaza and Netanyahu is never gong to agree to that. So, lots of optimistic welcome from around the world to the Trump deal but are they all really fooling themselves? This latest deal is an agglomeration of all the previous deals and since every one failed to bring the war to an end, it is pretty short odds that this 20-pointer will also go the same way. Or if it does work, eventually, it will be a long way off. Netanyahu is against a two-state solution, ie an indpendent state for Palestinians, but the Trump proposal hints at it, in order to keep the Arab nations happy. But there is nothing in the package that says it will definitely happen or how it will happen. One thing that does seem to have been dropped is Trump's idea of turning Gaza into a Middle East Riviera, with all the Palestinians told to leave and live somewhere else. That means the Palestinian inhabitants of what's left of Gaza will be allowed to stay, as the massive reconstruction programme gets underway. If this deal goes ahead, Netanyahu will not survive as Israeli leader.

Why is Trump so optimistic about a Gaza deal?

Everyone is talking about a peace settlement for Gaza but on the ground there is absolutely no evidence that either Israel or Hamas are ready to sign anything. Trump tells us that a lot of talking is going on behind the scenes between Israel, the US, Arab countries and Hamas to find the formula that has so far failed to materialise in nearly two years of war. JD Vance has joined those suggesting a deal might be in the offing but he wisely admits something could always go wrong at the last minute. Like Hamas saying no or Israel deciding to carry on until every single member of Hamas has been killed. No one for sure knows how many Hamas fighters have been killed but it must be close to 18,000 or perhaps even more. But that still means they have another 5,000-10,000 holding on to the remaining hostages and launching sporadic raids on Israel Defence Forces troops. Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be satisfied if that number of combatants are still free to attack Israel? I very much doubt it. So whatever deal is currently being discussed, the chances of it working out are slim at best. As for post-war Gaza, there are now so many ideas, none of which will inspire the Palestinians who want their own government and their own independence. One of the proposals is for Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, to run a temporary administration when the war finally stops. Blair is a class act and has been involved in Middle East peacemaking efforts for a long time. But I cannot imagine the Palestinian people in Gaza will settle for a Brit to run their lives. So, I fear the war is still a long way from ending.

Hundreds of generals and admirals ordered to attend Pentagon show

At this moment about 800 generals and admirals in the US military are preparing to leave their commands around the world and fly to Washington to attend a non-voluntary meeting on Tuesday with Donald Trump, their commander-in-chief, and the defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, for what appears to be a planned rebranding tour-de-force. The cost of getting all these top-flight commanders to leave their posts and come to Washington has not been quantified but it will run into tens of thousands of dollars and probably hundreds of thousands of dollars. And for what? So that Hegseth and Trump can urge them all to plan more directly for war in the future and to get them to warn all their soldiers, marines, airmen/women and sailors to see themselves as warriors. It's not a new concept but clearly Hegseth, a former Fox News presenter, feels the military needs a kick up the backside to prepare themselves for whatever wars may turn up in the futue, whether it be against China, Russia, Iran or Venezuela. In between the lecturing from Trump and Hegseth at the gathering at Quantico in Virginia, it's going to be a helluva gossip occasion for all the three- and four-star men and women who will no doubt seize the opportunity to chat about what Trump really wants and what it might mean for their careers. There must be a degree of trepidation within the top ranks.

Will the small-boat arrivals ever stop?

The defining image of this decade for Britain will be the arrival across the English Channel of dozens of people packed into a small boat, hoping to come and live in this country. It happens every week, and in some weeks happens every day, and nothing, NOTHING the government says or does makes any difference. The boats still keep coming, sometimes, safely, if that's the right word, and sometimes disastrously with some of the boat passengers falling into the sea and drowning, often women and children. Everything the previous Conservative government and the present Labour government have tried to do to stop this nightmare has totally, utterly failed. Some of the so-called policies have been gimmicks, others have been morally repugnant. But still the boats come. Donald Trump said the British government should use the military. But no government is going to do that, first because it would look terrible around the world and secondly, the Royal Navy just isn't bigh enough to spend its time patrolling the English Channel. The current one-out and one-in idea, in which one illegal, undocumented migrant is flown out and one approved, documented migrant is allowed in, might work over time but it will take decades for it to make any difference. So, the idea is pretty crass. The "send 'em all to Rwanda" scheme proposed by the previous government was morally unpleasant and an unbelievable waste of taxpayers' money because no one actually went to Rwanda, and then Labour scrapped it anyway. Is there anyone anywhere who has a practical idea for stopping the small boats. If so, come forward, because the Labour government certainly doesn't.

Trump's revenge against his personal enemies

James Comey, former FBI director, is the first but certainly not the last. Donald Trump always said he would take revenge against the people he believed inspired against him during his four years in office and now he has started. James Comey didn't stand a chance because he was the one who was in charge of the investigation into whether Trump was secretly aligned with Moscow to get elected in 2016, and then wrote a book attacking Trump. The evidence against him, in terms of a real criminal offence, would appear to be flimsy at best. The grand jury returned an indictment against Comey after a lawyer appointed by Trump only days ealier was part of the prosecution team and then turned out to be the one voice supporting the indictment. The other prosecutors said there wasn't enough evidence to convict. It's all a bit disturbing. Comey's mistake was to make a point of digging himself in vis a vis Trump by publicly criticising him. Had he been a bit wiser he would have gone into retirement quietly. But I guess he thought there was no chance of Trump being reelected, seeing as how he was facing so many criminal charges himself. But, then, he didn't predict Joe Biden deteriorating in health and resigning three months before election day. Kamala Harris was on a hiding to nothing and when Trump won easily, Comey was on a countdown to an indictment.

Are we closer to war with Russia?

The friendly relationship between President Trump and President Putin now seems finally to be over. It has been eight months of drama, disappointment and frustration. Last week, Trump gave his authority for Nato to shoot down Russian drones and fighter jets if they flew into alliance members’ air space which provoked an angry response from Moscow. The Russian ambassador to France, Alexey Meshkov, told a press conference that if a Russian aircraft was shot down it would lead to war.The warning came after Russian drones and fighter jets crossed into Poland, Romania and Estonia. Multiple drones also entered Danish airspace and the government of Copenhagen said it suspected they were Russian. These alarming developments underlined how relations have deteriorated between Washington and Moscow. The second Trump administration had begun with a real sense of optimism that the president would be able to use his influence to persuade Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine and to stop violating Nato airspace and launching cyber attacks on the US and Europe. The meeting between Trump and Putin at a military base outside Anchorage in Alaska was supposed to kick-start a new era, with productive relations between Washington and Moscow. The opposite has happened., culminating with the war warning from the Russian ambassador to France. How could it all have gone so wrong? Trump now says that Putin has let him down. But it seems clear that the Russian leader was never going to negotiate peace in Ukraine, unless it was strictly on his own terms, none of which was going to be acceptable to Kyiv. Following Trump’s dramatic change of mind about Ukraine last week, declaring that, given the right support, the Ukrainian military could seize back all the territory occupied by Russian troops, there would seem to be no prospect of a negotiated settlement to end the war. Trump effectively advised Ukraine to fight on and not seek peace. It may, of course, have been a cunning plan by the president to goad Putin into seeking a diplomatic settlement. But the Russian president has shown no sign of considering any sort of compromise. Moreover, after the deliberate incursions by Russian drones and fighter aircraft across Nato borders, Putin seems more determined than ever to provoke the alliance. Can Trump revive his friendship with Putin before the situation becomes even more dangerous, or is it now inevitable, as some military commentators have suggested, that Nato and Russia will become involved in direct conflict? This is such an alarming prospect that Trump is probably the only leader in the world who can contact Putin directly and bring him to his senses. So far, all of the president’s efforts have failed to change Putin’s aggressive tactics. But if something is not done soon to stop the bellicose rhetoric, there could be a serious miscalculation that might lead to a dangerous confrontation between Russia and the West. It is time for another summit between Trump and Putin before it’s all too late.

Trump tells Ukraine to fight on!

Donald Trump’s about-turn on Ukraine is so spectacular his personal social media platform, Truth Social, should be renamed Home Truths. It appears the US president has been doing some homework on the state of the Russian economy and how more than three years of war have impacted on the country’s financial stability and future growth potential, or lack of it. Much has been written about Russia’s war economy, painting the picture that the military/industrial infrastructure is in such a booming state that tanks are coming off the production line like vodka in a bottling factory. The truth, as Trump is discovering, is that the war in Ukraine has driven holes in Russia’s finances; and made vulnerable any prospect of a straightforward return to a civilian economy once the war is over. Putin is in deep trouble. He can keep the war going for another few years, but then what? If he still fails to defeat Ukraine or force Kyiv to surrender on his terms, Russia will not just be a “paper tiger”, as Trump wrote in his Truth Social post, but will be an empire without clothes. It has taken Trump a long time to come round to the view repeated endlessly by European leaders, that provided military and economic support for Kyiv is maintained, Putin at some stage will be forced to call it quits, and that if that backing is not guaranteed, the Russian president will continue to believe that aggression pays. The recent launching of Russian drones into Poland, Romania and over Copenhagen airport (suspected), and the flight of three MiG-31 fighter jets into Estonian airspace have shown that right now Putin thinks he’s a winner and can get away with pretty much anything. Trump has seen the light here, too, by confirming that Nato should shoot them down. Trump’s lengthy Truth Social post on Ukraine came after a meeting in New York with Volodymyr Zelensky who expressed surprise at the change in tone and message. However, even for Zelensky, Trump’s prediction that Ukraine could not only defeat the Russian invasion troops but also regain all the territory it has lost may have seemed over-optimistic.This is what Trump wrote: “After getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation and, after seeing the Economic trouble it is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.” Later on in the post, he wrote:“Ukraine would be able to take back their Country in its original form and, who knows, maybe even go further than that! Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act.” Quite what he meant by going further than just recovering Ukraine’s sovereign territory is unclear, but perhaps he was thinking of Crimea which was annexed by Putin without a fight in 2014.Trump relies on advice not just from his appointed officials but also from people he trusts outside government. His apparent U-turn may have materialised after consulting with experts in his private contacts list. Certainly, his revised view doesn’t gel with the opinion of Marco Rubio, his secretary of state and acting national security adviser, who made it clear that the war in Ukraine would end with a diplomatic, not a military solution. This view is largely held by the top military commanders in the US. Three years of war have demonstrated a number of truths: Russia has failed to prove it has the military capability to crush its neighbour despite massive superiority (thus, Trump’s paper tiger analogy), and Ukraine has demonstrated a fighting spirit and an ingenious exploitation of home-grown technology to thwart Russian forces and save the country from Moscow’s subjugation. Western support with advanced weaponry has also, of course, been crucial in the earlier stages of the war. But modern western tanks, for example, many of which have been destroyed in battle, play less of a role now that drones have taken over as the weapon of choice to keep the Russians back. Trump appears to have accepted these realities and has now, effectively, given his backing for Kyiv to fight on but only in the context of Europe taking the brunt of the financial responsibility for aiding Zelensky and his military commanders. This follows Trump’s decision to sell American weapons to Europe which then passes them onto Ukraine, a clever business arrangement if ever there was one. So, it’s Europe from now on , but with Trump waving the Ukrainian flag in the background. How Putin reacts to this remarkable change in Trump’s position will be illuminating. All the indications up to this moment were that Putin was prepared to continue the conflict ad infinitum, relying on his war economy to try and seize more Ukrainian territory – so far, around 19 per cent, including Crimea. However, military expenditure is now absorbing up to eight per cent of Russia’s GDP. That cannot be sustained without having an increasingly damaging impact on the rest of the economy. With the likelihood of even more savage sanctions imposed on Moscow in the future, Putin could be forced to reassess his war prospects in Ukraine to save Russia from economic disaster. That’s Trump’s Home Truths message.

Trump should warn off Putin

Instead of complaining that Putin has let him down, Donald Trump, as leader of the western alliance, should give the Russian president the strongest warning: stop sending drones and fighter aircraft into Nato member nations or they will get shot down. Putin is just enjoying himself at the moment, with drones crossing into Poland and Romania, fighter aircraft into Estonia, and now drones over Copenhagen airport, stopping all flights. It is not yet absolutely certain that Russia is behind the Copenhagen incident, but it smacks of Putinesque tactics. He is going to continue playing these dangerous gamns with Nato until the alliance reacts with a military response. Then and only then will he back off. While Nato dithers and Trump shows no interest Putin will feel he has been given carte blnache to do what he likes to stir up trouble in the western alliance. How many more drones or fghter aircraft have to be flown into alliance airspace before someone with guts just shoots them down. This is why Trump has to deliver a warning message, an ultimatum to Putin. But at the United Nations General Assembly, Trump spent most of his address railing against Europe for failing to stop illegal immigration. This address should have been the right moment to send out his warning to Putin. The whole alliance would have applauded.

Hamas public executions as Starmer recognises Palestine

The appalling video of Hamas executing three suspected Israeli collaborators in public in Gaza shows how Keir Starmer's decision to recognise Palestine as a state is so fraught with paradoxes, contradictions and political risks. Of course the Palestinian people deserve their own nation with safe and respected borders and a proper future for their own unique sovereignty. But right now one of the key elements of a would-be state is still run by Hamas, designated a terrorist organisation by the US and the UK. If Hamas continues to rule Gaza, despite being targeted and attacked by Israel ever since the slaughter of Israeli and other national citizens on October 7, 2023, there can be no consideration of a Palestinian state. So, the only sensible policy for all governments contemplating doing what Starmer and others have done is to wait until Hamas has been removed as the ruling body of Gaza. It makes no sense to recognise a Palestinian state now when Hamas is brutally executing people in public and refusing to hand over the remaining hostages. It's not just premature, it's nonsensical. The Palestinian people should be given hope for a better future but this will never come while Hamas controls them. Let the two-state model for Palestine and Israel to live alongside each other remain as the strategic goal. But recognising Palestine now is a gift to Hamas and will prolong the war between Hamas and Israel.

Trump wants Bagram back (plus of course Greenland, Panama Canal...)

Donald Trumo has set his sights on getting the huge ex-US airbase at Bagram in Afghanistan back under American military control. Good luck with that. The Taleban has immediately said he can't have it which should be the end of it. But Trump remembers that the top military command in the US, prior to the embarrassing and humiliating withdrawal of all troops in August 2021, advised the then president Joe Biden to hang on to Bagram and leave 2.500 troops in place as a permanent force, not just to keep watch over the potential resurgence of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan but also as a strategic post vis a vis China. Biden said no. He wanted everyone out and quickly. It was a huge mistake, and now Trump wants to reverse that decision by seizing cntrol of Bagram for the future. I fear it's too late and too impractical. It would lead to another war with the Taleban and I doubt Trump wants that, since he is against all wars involving American troops. Also, he negotiated the deal with the Taleban for the US troop withdrawal. There was nothing in the small print about keeping Bagram. Meanwhile, Bagram which vovers a vast area is largely empty and wasting away. The US took everything out that they wanted and the base is pretty much a white elephant, with a few Taleban around to keep some sort of security watch. The problem with hanging on to Bagram - when Biden considered it - was the huge cost of maintaining the base and the vulnerability of the troops stationed there. The same will be the case if Trump contemplates taking Bagram back by force. It's probably just wishful thinking on Trump's part. Just like his declared desire to have both Greenland and the Panama Canal under US ownership.

Nato has to get tough with audacious Russian infringements

The latest evidence of increasing Russian aggression-tactics against Nato countries came with the infringement of Estonian airspace by three MiG-31 fighter aircraft. They spent twelve minutes over Estonia and then withdrew. At some point, instead of complaining after the event, Nato should stand up to Putin and warn him that if this type of airspace violation is repeated, his fighter jets will be shot down. He would do the same if a Nato fighter jet flew into Russian airspace. Putin is getting away with everything he tries, whether it be drones hurtling into Poland and Romania or troop build-ups close to the border with Finland. Finland, one of the newest members of Nato, is facing daily threats. Putin would love to punish Finland for joining Nato - after the Russian invasion of Ukraine - and just might launch some border incursion to test out Finnish defences. Why isn't Nato doing more to stamp on this deliberate aggression? The reason is, the alliance is desperately anxious not to make things worse by over-reacting. Shooting down a Russian fighter jet would be seen by the Kremlin as an outright attack on Russia. But so what? It would teach Moscow a lesson and perhaps force Putin to back off in future. Nobody wants a war between Nato and Russia. Putin certainly doesn't. But if he keeps on taunting the alliance and the alliance does nothing in return, he will see this as weakness and just carry on regardlesss.

US/UK special relationship is alive and well

The special relationship between the US and Britain is often derided in this new world order we are facing. But it remains one of the strongest bonds on the world stage, whoever is in charge in either Washington or London. This was proven and underlined during Donald Trump's State visit to Britain. Both Trump and King Charles spoke warmly of each other and each other's countries during the state banquet at Windsor Castle. The banquet was a powerhouse of rich businessmen. Not a pop star or Hollywood actor in sight. It was all high-tech big bosses and people of influence. Who sat next to whom was a masterpiece in dinner table strategy. Above all, it showed that despite some big differences between London and Washington on key areas such as climate-change, Ukraine/Russia and Gaza, there is an untouchable affection that cannot be destroyed or undermined. That alone might make Trump return to Washington with new ideas in his head about how to deal with the likes of Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu. But the soft words of King Charles in his ear over dinner are unlikely to persuade Trump to totally change his current strategy towards Russia/Ukraine and Israel. The terrible wars will continue.

Trump's gilded carriage welcome at Windsor

Donald Trump has the unusual privilege of travelling in one of the royal family's gilded carriages but only inside the environs of Windsor Castle, not out in the town, let alone along The Mall leading to Buckingham Palace. So this is a State visit but it's more like a mini-State visit, with carefully contained pageantry. Hundreds of police and fancily-dressed military kept a careful guard, so how on earth protesters managed to flash a picture of Trump and Jeffery Epstein onto the walls of Windsor Castle beggars belief. Where were the police then? An extraordinary cock-up which went viral around the world. Trump says he loves the royal family and looks upon King Charles as a friend, so one wonders whether the monarch might whisper to him that his reversal of President Joe Biden's huge climate-change bill could be seriously dangerous for the future of the world. Charles has always worried about the planet and humankind's abuse of its treasures. But I fear Trump won't be in a mood to listen. He came to the White House for his second term promising to drill, drill,,drill for oil and there seems absolutely no chance he will change his mind. Charles is probably the best diplomat in the country and will do his best but Trump has made up his mind that oil and gas are the way ahead, none of this expensive namby pamby alternative energy resources stuff!

Trump trapped by Putin's schemes

It all began with such promise. Donald Trump would sweep away all the failures of past administrations and sit astride the globe like a Nobel Prize winner in-the-making and solve the world’s seemingly unresolvable security challenges. To be fair, it has only been eight months since he began his second term in the White House. But it is a fact that Trump has struggled to bring the force of his personality and chutzpah to bear in trying to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as he pledged he would in short shrift during his presidential campaign. His return to the White House was supposed to be the start of a Trump era on the world stage, a period in which dramatic diplomatic breakthroughs would cement his legacy as a peacemaker. America’s adversaries would be forced to make deals or suffer the consequences. Increasingly, however, it is becoming a Putin era. The Russian leader faced world condemnation for his invasion of Ukraine, and yet three years and seven months later, he and the war economy he has built despite international sanctions have not just survived but have flourished. Putin, not Trump, has turned out to be the master playmaker and game changer. As Trump and First Lady Melania arrive in the UK for an unprecedented second state visit, the president has little to boast about when it comes to Ukraine or Gaza. Both Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu have largely ignored his entreaties and interventions, despite a plethora of meetings, phone calls, public pronouncements and hints from Trump that at any moment there would be a ceasefire or an end to the wars. There was no greater expectation of a breakthrough on Ukraine than when Trump and Putin met at the American military base outside Anchorage in Alaska. Most analysts thought it was at least a positive move that Putin had asked for the summit. However, on reflection, above all, Putin wanted to be back on the world stage – especially with the international war crimes warrant for his arrest still hanging over him - and he calculated that if he offered to meet Trump, the US president wouldn’t be able to resist the glamour of such an occasion, and it would be greeted as a signal of his (Putin’s) readiness to negotiate with his old friend. The result, however, after the red carpet welcome, was that Putin returned to Moscow, having made it impossible for Trump to impose the heavy sanctions he had threatened if the Alaska summit failed to bring peace in Ukraine, and then proceeded to launch a series of unprecedently large-scale drone and missile attack, including, for the first time, strikes on government buildings in Kyiv. Those promised sanctions against Russia have still not materialised, more than a month later, and now Trump is hedging his bets and saying he will only take this action when Nato stops buying Russia’s cheap oil. Turkey, a prominent alliance member, is the third largest buyer of Russian oil after China and India. Hungary and Slovakia also continue to import Russian oil and gas. For Putin who relies on exports of Russian energy to fund his war machine, Trump’s hesitation to use the big stick against him will be seen not just as a sign of weakness but as perfect evidence of the Russian leader’s cunning strategy to pretend to woo the US president while patently carrying on regardless with his objective of smashing Ukraine into oblivion. The same disregard for Trump’s leadership is evident in the way Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu has played along with the constant back-and-forth diplomatic visits, paying court to the American president’s envoys – Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, is the latest to arrive in Israel. But while he talks, Israel Defence Forces are pounding Gaza City, demolishing tower blocks and warning its 1.3 million residents to leave. Rubio is in Jerusalem principally to get across the White House’s disapproval of Israel’s bombing of Hamas political-hierarchy targets in Qatar on 9 September. The bombing, carried out without consultation with Washington, has landed Trump and Rubio with an excrutiatingly tricky dilemma because of the vital strategic alliance the US shares with Qatar. The Gulf state hosts about 10,000 US troops at al Udeid airbase, home of US Central Command’s forward operating missions for the whole of the Middle East. Both Trump and Rubio appear to be tiptoeing around the challenge that Netanyahu continues to pose, even though they have the power and the leverage to stamp their feet and demand change. However, Washington is backing off from confrontation. The beneficiaries are Putin and Netanyahu. Meanwhile, Putin is testing Trump and Nato to the limit by sending drones into Poland and also Romania. Alliance leaders have reacted with horror and come up with a belated strategy to build up air defences along the border with Russia on Nato’s eastern flank. But the truth is, Putin will get away with this infringement of Polish and Romanian sovereignty like he always does because Nato won't want to escalate the situation too much. Next time Putin will double the number of drones and then a cruise missile or two, and watch Nato’s response. But still he will be the one to laugh. This is Putin's time and unless Washington does something pretty drastic, it will remain Putin's time throughout Trump's second administration. BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH, SEQUEL TO SHADOW LIVES, ORDER FROM AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Donald Trump's unprecedented SECOND State Visit to UK

The fact that Donald Trump is being granted a second State Visit to the UK - the first one was in June 2019 - says everything about the way the Labour government under Sir Keir Starmer is desperate to keep the unpredictable American president on side for the next three and a half years of his second term in office. Trump loves the British royal family and will ooze charm when he arrives with First Lady Melania tomorrow evening for a two-day event. Starmer will also be obsequiously attendant to Trump because that is how he believes he can keep the president happy. One wrong move or one wrong comment and there could be trouble. But Starmer will have learnt his lines very carefully. Quite what Trump will think when he sees all the protesters waving their banners at him we will have to see. But he won't appreciate it, and Starmer will be anxious to keep the protesters as far away as possible which probably means the police have been ordered to tuck them away down side streets. There will be no repeat of the staggering arrival of 110,000 far right demonstrators who filled the streets in central London at the weekend. The police will see to that. But during the two-day State Visit, everyone in the government and law enforcement is going to be terrified about the possibiity of something going wrong. All the other US presidents who won two terms in office were invited to tea with the Queen at Windsor Castle durng their second term, no state visit. But Trump is being given very special treatment because of Starmer's paranoia about displeasing the president. There will be no repetition of the Hugh Grant speech in Love Actually when the actor playing the British prime minister turned on the visiting American president and said America was not a friend if all it did was demand what it wanted from a relationship. Grant went on to praise Britain's greatness. Today Britain's greatness is under greater threat than ever.

Trump and Rubio are tiptoeing when they should be stamping feet

Why are Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, his secretary of state, tiptoing around the two biggest diplomatic crises when they have the power and leverage to stamp their feet and demand change? Trump still hasn't imposed the severe sanctions he promised to consider against Putin and Russia for continuing to smash Ukraine to bits, and Rubio is in Israel saying he doesn't like the Israeli bombing of Hamas in Qatar but nothing has changed the relationship between Tel Aviv and Washington. So all nice and friendly and indecisive. Trump is now linking the possibility of imposing new sanctions against Russia to Europe stopping buying oil from Moscow. Europe has cut back significantly but still buys some oil from Russia because they have failed to find affordable alternatives to meet demand. So, Trump's announcement is fair enough. Why sanction Russia when there is this big loophole for Putin? However, if Trump just came out with it and declared new massive sanctions, it would force Europe and India and China and others who still buying Russian oil to take drastic steps to look elsewhere for energy supplies. Then Putin really would be in trouble. But right now he can rely on India (despite 50 per cent tariffs by Trump) and China and North Korea and some European countries to keep his war machine going. Meanwhile, Rubio clearly has no authority from his boss to punish Israel for striking at Hamas offices in Doha in Qatar which killed half a dozen people but none of the Hamas hierarchy, or so the designated terrorist organisation claims. Will he ask Netanyahu not to do it again? Even if he does, Netanyahu will shrug his shoudrs. When it comes to Israel's security, he will do anything and everything to stop his country's enemies. So any entreaties from Rubio will fall on stony ground. Washington is supposed to be all-powerful but right now those with the power are backing off. The beneficiaries are Putin and Netanyahu.

The bad guys will take advantage of our shakey world

The world has never seemed more vulnerable, fragile and shaking to its roots. Of course there are millions of people on the planet whose lives have been miserable and desperate for as long as they can remember. But I'm referring here to the political world, the world where big decisions are made that affect everyone. This is where new vulnerabilities have arisen. Millions of young people who cannot find a job either becasue AI has taken over or because governmnents have imposed taxes or restrictions which have forced businesses to cut back on recruiting and investment. And above all, it's the constant drumbeat of violence, people, often in their 20s, turning to violent extremes to vent their fury and frustrations. The suspected killer of Charlie Kirk looks like an ordinary 21-year-old with a decent education and hope for the future. Yet he was driven to commit a terrible act of violence. How could that be? America is supposed to be the country where individual hopes and dreams can lead to happiness and prosperity. But America is changing. It's still a great country but deep down there are scary uncertainties about everything. It's the same in the UK. A wonderful country but too many things are going wrong, politically, economically and socially. Is it all the government's fault? No. Is Keir Starmer to blame for the way the country appears to be going down hill? No, not really. But I think it's fair to say that this country is lacking in inspiring leadership. The US on the other hand has a charismatic leader who seems super-self-assured but the country is possibly more divided than ever. What the answer is, I don't know but the world is so fragile at present that the bad guys are going to help themselves. There are leaders on the planet who are already seizing their moment and grabbing what they can while this period of uncertainty remains. I don't need to name names.

Why on earth was Peter Mandelson appointed in the first place?

The decision to appoint Lord Peter Mandelson as the UK ambassador to Washington was always a mistake. It showed that Keir Starmer wasn't satisfied with any of the potential candidates from within the Foreign Office. The Washington job is the pinnacle appointment for anyone serving as a diplomat and normally goes to someone who has worked his or her way up the diplomatic ladder. Appointing a politician or former politician is always going to be risky and is seen as one in the eye for the senior diplomats who have proved their worth at home and broad. Mandelson has been axed for the increasingly embarrassing revelations about his relationship with the late Jeffrey Epstein, convicted girl sex trafficker. But his appointment in the first place demonstrated unwise judgment by the prime minister. Mandelson's predecessor, Karen Pierce, excelled as ambassador. She was a career diplomat. Now the Foreign Office is in a bad way. Redundancy notices are flying around. Key people holding top director jobs are being dismissed or leaving. The head of the Foreign Office, Sir Oliver Robbins, isn't a career deiplomat but a favoured Downing Street figure after he served as the main Brexit adviser. Too many good people in the Foreign Office are leaving. Now, all the rumours are that Starmer will double-up on his mistake with Mandelson by replacing him with another politician, such as George Osborne, rather than a diplomat who has served in key capitals, such as Moscow or Beijing or Paris. Big mistake!

Has Trump given up on Ukraine and Gaza?

For months there was so much diplomatic activity going on between the United States and all the participants and players and backroom negotiators involved in resolving the wars in Ukraine and Gaza that at any moment the world was expecting to hear about a major breakthrough in both conflicts. Peace at last. I don't know how close it came but we were all expecting the wars would be resolved soon because of Donald Trump's eternal optimism. We believed he could do it. He believed he could do it. Every time his special envoy Steve Witkoff came back from his latest trip to Moscow or Tel Aviv or Qatar, the White House vibe was that there would be good news very soon. But nothing materialised. Putin kept on bombing and killing and destroying and ignoring Trump's entreaties, and Benjanmin Netanyahu did the same and kept on bombing and killing and destroying and ignoring Trump. Peace deals are further away now than they have ever been. Does this mean Trump has finally given up hope of ending either conflict? If that's the case, then it will be a defining legacy for his second administration. Total failure, despite all the effort and hand-wringing. Putin and Netanyahu are basically doing what they want whatever the White House or Europe or anyone else says. There is no world order anymore.

Putin laughs like a drone

Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump's old mate, really is having a laugh. He is not foolish enough to invade Poland but he is testing out Nato's response to aggression with other less threatening but still cunning ways. Cyber attacks are run-of-the-mill these days but his new venture is to send drones into Polish airspace, supposedly erring ones that should have hit targets in western Ukraine but, oops, went a dozen or so miles into Poland. Clearly it wasn't a mistake but was totally deliberate, part of a Kremlin plan to demonstrate that Moscow can do what the hell it likes when it likes and get away with it. Poland is outraged and warns it is closer to conflict with Russia than since the Second World War. That's political hyperbole but it's the response which will make Putin smile because he knows that the few drones which actually got through defences and caused damage will have scared the life out of the Polish people and put Nato on a jittery alert status. Now there's talk of setting up a Drone Watch defence system, so that no one can be caught out ever again. Why wasn't this in place a long time ago? The truth is, Putin will get away with this infringement of Polish sovereignty like he always does because Nato won't want to escalate the situation too much. Next time it will be double the number of drones and then a cruise missile or two. But still Putin will be the one to laugh. Like a drain but in this case, like a drone. This is Putin's time and unless Trump does something pretty drastic, it will remain Putin's time throughout Trump's second administration. PLEASE BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH, DESCRIBED BY THE DAILY MAIL AS MAKING JAMES BOND LOOK TAME. ORDER FROM AMAZON, BARNES & NOBLE, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Israel strikes at Hamas in Doha

If Hamas ever thought their "political" leaders residing in Qatar's Doha capital were safe from Israeli attacks, now they know they have probably always been a potential taget. Previously, as the Hamas representatives in the often-abortive negotiations to end the war in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must have decided it was better to leave them alone, if only to keep the US on side. But now, with the war in Gaza progressing towards a new phase, all bets are off. Netanyahu is in no mood to negotiate, directly or indirectly, with Hamas, especially after the death of six Israeli citizens waiting at a bus stop in Jerusalem, shot dead by Palestinian gunmen. The attack in Doha has been universally condemned, although not by the White House which would have been tipped off prior to the strike. The possibility of peace negotations is now off the table for good. How many of the Hamas hierarchy were killed in Doha is not yet known but the Israel Defence Forces said the strike was carried out with precision munitions which means that targets had been pinpointed. Doha will from now on never be safe again from Israeli attacks. It's a new and dangerous development in the terrible war in Gaza which began after the atrocities caused by Hamas on October 7, 2023.

Will Putin ever meet Zelensky and shake hands?

After three years and nearly seven months of war in Ukraine, are we any closer to seeing a meeting between Putin and Zelensky and a formal shaking of hands of the two enemies? The answer has to be no and no. In fact, I cannot see Putin and Zelensky ever meeting for a peace settlement deal, or anything at all, because the two are always going to be so far apart in what they want and need that a meeting of hands, let alone of minds, seems as far-fetched as Donald Trump persuading Benjamin Netanyahu to accept the two-state solution for Palestinians. These political objectives are just not going to happen under Trump's watch or any US president's watch. It's too late. Both wars are so entrenched that any reason for hope or optimismm has vanished. And yet Trump frequently still suggests that both wars will be resolved "soon". It's difficult to understand why he should think that when both Putin and Netanyahu are ignoring him and world opinion. Trump yesterday indicated he wasn't happy with Putin after the drone-bombing of government buildings in Kyiv which won't have disturbed Putin's breakfast. I think he thinks he knows how to play Trump very well now and is no longer bothered what the US president does or threatens to do and will just carry on regardless, and laugh at all the despairing attempts by European leaders to find a solution to the conflict.

The disastrous failure of peace efforts in Ukraine and Gaza

Nothing better sums up the disasters in Ukraine and Gaza than the current run of bombings by the Russians and the Israelis. Putin's bombers and droners have been hitting Ukraine's government buildings in Kyiv for the first time, and Israel is targeting high-rise buildings in Gaza City, literally reducing them to rubble. Why, is not absolutely clear, other than what seems to be a strategy of total destruction. Putin has decided to attack Ukrainian government buildings for obvious reasons. He wants to up the anti and hurt Zelensky as much as possible by making him even more vulnerable every day of his life. If Zelesnky can develop drones with long-enough range or missiles that can fly more than 1,000 miles, perhaps he will order strikes on the Kremlin. This is the way the war is going to go. Meanwhile, Netanyahu is doing his best to turn Gaza City into a heap of rubble, so no one can live there any more, neither terrorists nor Palestinian citizens. Attempts to stop this mindless destruction in both Kyiv and Gaza City have totally failed. No one, certainly not Donald Trump, can persuade either Putin or Netanyahu to call it a day and go for peace. One of the most gruesome issues in Gaza is that the only hostages now getting released or recovered by military action are already dead. Peace is dead.

Putin says no to European troops in Ukraine

So much has gone into a blueprint plan for sending thousands of troops from the UK and Europe to Ukraine to monitor/reassure/protect a ceasefire or peace settlement. But all to no avail because Putin has stated categorically that he would reject any such scheme. He has now said European troops would be legitimate targets. This cannot have come as a surprise to European leaders because Putin made this clear right from the start. But they are still carrying on as if it really is going to happen. I wonder whow much money has been spent getting this coalition of the willing together for a role they will never actually perform. There are now 26 countries ready to deploy troops to Ukraine. Tens if not hundreds of ohousands of pounds must have been spent in drawing this all together. It beggars belief.

Putin and Xi Zinping want immortality

Never mind world order domination, the war in Ukraine, the rising power of China and the battle with the West and democracy, what Vladimir Putin and Xi Zinping are really interested in is immortality. They are considering organ transplants to keep them alive for many more decades. Their conversation, overheard when they didn't realise the microphone was on during their meeting in Beijing, was pretty gruesome. They actually shared the same belief that if they had other's presumably much younger vital organs that would keep them alive, like for ever. Putin and Xi for ever! Heaven help us and the world. The most extraordinary thing was that both leaders admitted to each other that they had been having the same thoughts about their future. It was like a sci-fi, thinking it might be their best path to live much much longer, and presumably stay in power much much longer. It would be funny if it wasn't both distasteful and somewhat obscene. The golden rule for political leaders is that if you are going to have a conversation like this, it's better to do it in total privacy, away from microphones. Too many damaging remarks have been caught on a "hot" mic over the years, like when Obama promised Putin that if he won the election in the US, he would reset relations with the Russian leader and all would be fine.

Who is the most powerful leader in the world, Donald Trump or Xi Zinping?

Today at least President Xi Zinping of China looks to be the most powerful leader on the world stage. He has surrounded himself with many of the most unsavoury leaders, including Putin and Kim Jong-un, and is parading his most advanced weapons for all to see. Meanwhile, Trump has sent the mighty US Navy to blast away a small speed boat carrying drugs off Venezuela. The contrast couldn't be more dramatic. I know this is an artificial comparison and it's only today but somehow it seems to sum up how the world is going. Trump was asked whether he should be concerned about China and Russia ganging up on the US and he appeared to be very relaxed about it. He even went on to say how much he liked Xi and thought of him as a friend. But this wasn't the message the Chinese leader was giving as he rolled out new intercontinental ballistic missiles onlow loaders in Tiananman Square. He was definitely making the point that China wants to dominate the world order and push Trump to one side. It didn't help that social media yesterday was full of so-called stories claiming Trump had died. Trump was able to do a Mark Twain and say that reports of his death were premature, and he hadn't succumbed to some deadly illness. Trump is alive and apparently well. But there were no reports of Xi Zinping falling ill. He looked in sparkling health and remains leader of China for life. Again, another dramatic comparison.

Is Narendra Modi switching sides?

The Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, holds hands with Vladimir Putin and chats to him and Xi Zinping, the all-powerful leader of China, like they are the best and oldest of friends. Is Modi, hammered by Donald Trump's trade tariffs, demonstrating that he is changing sides, going for the would-be world-dominating, China-led option rather than the old US-dominated western alternative? He is reported to be so angry with Trump that the invitation to attend a meeting in Beijing of China's favourite leaders has given him the opportunity to turn his back on the US and Trump, in particular. It wouldn't be surprising because Trump has singled out India for the toughest tariff punishment for daring to buy Russia's cheap oil and gas. But, of course, it's all part of the game that Modi is especially clever at playing. In other words, one moment he seems to be courting China and the next he will be signing arms deals with the US and pretending everlasting friendship with Washington. Right now, in order to persuade Trump to back down over tariffs he is smooching up to Xi Zinping and, creepy creepy, walking along holding Putin's hand. I bet Putin cringed inwardly but of course he went along with it because he, too, wanted to do two fingers to Trump. So Modi is a clever politician. His smiles and affectionate embraces for Xi Zinping, Putin and others are all aimed at grabbing Trump's attention. What will Trump do? He should be able to see through all this showtime stuff in Beijing. But for the moment, he will probably feel somewhat left out as Xi, Putin, Modi and, later today, Kim Jong-un, on his way by armoured train from North Korea, all pose for pics and lovey-dovey cuddles.

Ignoring climate-change is all the rage

Donald Trump started it. He discounted climate change and global warming from the beginning, dismissing the millions of words of warnings from the world's best scientists and environmentalists, and the pictures of the Artic icecap melting, and the fantastic hot summers etc etc. All he was and is interested in is exploiting all the gas and oil the US has underground and rejecting the alternative energy sources. He hates wind turbines and is trying to dismantle them. Now other foreign politicians are following his example. In the UK, Nigel Farage, the so-called leader of the so-called party called Reform, believes whatever Trump says. The UK's opposition leader, Kemi Badenoch, doesn't like being upstaged by Farage, so she is the latest one to call for huge increases in oil and gas drilling around the the country to make sure nothing is left to waste away. She is thinking jobs and energy profits, never mind the carbon emissions. Meanwhile, the Labour government's energy policy is to go for net zero carbon emissions by 2050 which means no coal or gas or oil but nuclear, wind, solar and whatever else is going. But that policy is being dismissed as impractical even though it's supposed to be the goal set by the international community for the planet. Badenoch has jumped on the bandwagon of those saying it's all nonsense and we need to burn fossil fuel for as long as it's available. I think it's safe to say that the world, with such leaders, will bring this poor old world to an early end. It will just burn up and it will be too late to do anything about it. David Attenborough has spent most of the latter part of his long and extraordinary life warning us all about the dangers of climate change. We all listen and say what a great guy he is. But if governments don't listen we are all doomed.

How Israel tracked top nuclear and military officials in Iran

You have to hand it to the Israelis. They always find a way of eliminating their enemies. In Lebanon they destroyed the hierarchy of Hezbollah by putting mini explosives in all their mobile phones which detonated as they went about their business. In Iran, hunting for top nuclear scientists and leaders of the Islannic Revolutionary Guard Corps and political leaders, they focused their attention on the bodyguards for all of them, according to a brilliant piece in The New York Times today. Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, had ordered all his top people not to use mobiles because of the fear of being tracked by Israel's phone hackers. But he forgot to tell all the bodyguards and drivers who went ahead chatting on Whatsapp on their phones, providng a direct-hit link for Mossad and the Israeli air force. It was so simple but devastatingly effective. In the short war between Israel and Iran, eventually backed up by Donald Trump's B-2 stealth bombers and Tomahawk cruise missiles, it wasn't just the targeting of the three Irnaian nuclear sites which had such an impact, it was the focused assassinations by Israel of nuclear scientists and top military people. Although Iran now realises it was a huge mistake vis a vis the bodyguards and drivers, I am sure Mossad will come up with something else if/when in the future more assassinations are carried out in Iran. Even the Iranian regime admits that Mossad has penetrated the highest echelons of Iranian government which must create a permanent sense of paranoia in Tehran.

Buffer zone for Ukraine is a nonsense

The Europeans seem to be getting increasingly desperate with their ideas for a post-war solution for Ukraine. First of all, there is absolutely no sign yet of a post-war situation. Putin wants to carry on the war for as long as he can which could be years. Second, the European idea of setting up a buffer zone between Russian-occupied land and the rest of Ukraine with thousands of peacekeeping-style troops from other countries, is impractical, unrealisable and naive. That wold be a huge area to cover, and the maximum number of troops being envisaged, roughly 60,000, would not cut it. Their role would he impossible to enforce and could lead to a dangerous confrontation with Russian troops. Then what? It beats me why all the clever military commanders around in Europe, and I'm including Brexit Britain here, don't point this all out. Or are they so gungho that they believe something like this could actually work? Putin won't agree to having Nato troops in Ukraine, ever. So if British troops were sent would they have to wear a UN beret or, God forbid, a European Army beret? No one will be fooled by that, least of all Putin. But the whole concept is beyond credibility, unless the buffer zone is protected by, say, 150,000-200,000 troops. But who is going to provide that size force from Europe? And how long would they have to stay there? Twenty, thirty, forty years? It's totally impractical.

The latest Trump-style arms deal to Ukraine

It's one of those deals which only someone like Donald Trump could have negotiated. Under the latest arms scheme for Ukraine which was announced some weeks ago but is now actually happening, the US is selling warfighting weapons to Europe in order for the Europeans to give them to Ukraine. It's a huge boost for US defence companies at no cost to the American taxpayer, because Europe is paying all the bills. It's an extraordinary arrangement, because Trump can also claim that the US is no longer arming Ukraine,even though it patently is. Putin won't be fooled but it really is quite clever. The first batch of US air-launched long-range cruise missiles have just been sent to the Ukrainian air force but via the bill payers which in this case are Denmark and The Netherlands. Total amount is $825 million so it's not a sneeze. Trump has claimed that the US has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on arms for Ukraine. Actually the total figure is around $67 billion. But he came to the White House with the promise that the open-chequebook arrangement with the Kyiv government would stop, and with his canny bill-paying arrangement, he has kind of stuck to his guns, as it were. Anyway, Ukraine gets what it needs to carry on the fight with Russia, and Trump continues trying to end the war by cuddling up to Putin. It might work, or it might not. So far, it definitely hasn't.

Xi Zinping outsmarts Donald Trump with invite to Kim Jong-un

Is this a coincidence or a smart move by China's leader to undermine Donald Trump? Xi Zinping, it has been announced today, has invited the North Korea leader Kim Jong-un to join him and Vladimir Putin for a military parade in Beijing on September 3. It comes just 24 hours after Trump said he would be happy to meet Kim Jong-un and have another go at charming him, and mentioned a possible time later this year. Then out pops the beaming Chinese president and says: "Ha, Mr Trump, I've got my invite in before you." So the Terrible Threesome, Xi, Putin and Kim, will be all smiles together on the VIP dais to watch China's fancy weapons parading through Tiananmen Square, followed, no doubt, by lots of state noodles. It's definitely a grrrr moment for Trump who knows he has been out-cunninged by his Beijing rival. Kim Jong-un wins either way. He can be satisfied that his friend in Beijing has selected him for special honours and he will get a chance to have more chats with Vlad, his strategic partner. He also has the satisfaction to be reminded that Trump looks upon him as a friend and that they could be meeting up for another wonderful shaking of hands sometime soon. Obviously, Trump was never going to be invited to the Beijing jamboree but, still, he must be cursing Xi for taking the headlines away from him.

Is the UK so miserable as everyone is saying?

The American newspapers like to get a bee in their bonnet about the United Kingdom, especially when things are not going right. "Broken Britain" seems to be the favourite headline at the moment. Is this true and, if so, why? First of all, Britain is a beautiful country and one of the best to live in happily. But there is no doubt that currently there is a sort of malaise around which is hitting a lot of people. The Labour government appears not to have a clue about how to boost the economy and make everyone want to work and prosper. Every attempt to improve the economy has largely failed. Huge political mistakes were made early on in the Keir Starmer government and the country has yet to recover from them. Now, everyone, from the rich down to the poorest, are afraid of what Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, is going to do to confront the $20 billion hole in the finances. What she should do is put income tax up by one per cent but she won't and can't do that because the Labour Manifesto prior to the election which they won so comfortably, promised not to raise income tax. That was stupid, politically and economically. No government should ever close options. The alternatives will be hugely unpopular and probably unsuccessful. Then there's the small-boats scandal with thousands more migrants popping over the Channel onto English beaches every week, and nothing seems to stop them. Huge sums of money have been paid to France to police the Calais beaches and prevent gang leaders from pusing off the next migrant-packed boat. Yet still they come. No one has an answer to this crisis. Hotels are full of asylum seekers, protests are rising. It's all totally out of control. The Conservatives were hopeless about resolving this issue, and now Labour is also all over the place. Nothing has been effective. So the poor economy and the small boats, and the lack of jobs for all the students who have just graduated from university with no hopes of a decent career have soured the whole population. So, for once, the US newspaper headlines are pretty right. However, this is still a great country, with fabulous people, gorgeous countryside and an awesome history. There is always room for optimism that things will turn out all right eventually. That is what miserable Britain is counting on.

Trump and Kim Jong-un, here we go again

It looks like we are in for another Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un love-in. Until now, Trump's foreign policy moves have mostly been about Russia, Ukraine, Gaza and Israel, Iran and Houthis, with a little bit of India-Pakistan, Armenia and Azerbaijan thrown in. No mention of North Korea, let alone his old friend Kim Jong-un. But at last Trump has spoken his name and reminded everyone that he has a great relationship with the fellow in Panmunjom. The North Korean leader must be chuffed to know that at some point later this year the great Donald will be skaking his hand once again. The last time they met, in Hanoi, Trump walked off in a huff because his friend didn't concede one iota vis a vis his nukes. Now, years later, North Korea has more nuclear warheads and more intercontinental ballistic missiles. It's too late. far too late, for Trump to even dream about persuading Kim Jong-un (or Kim Jong Un or Kim Jong un) to give up all his nukes and become friends with South Korea. Kim Jong-un, like Vladimir Putin, will be delighted to have a meet with the president of the United States because it builds up his status as an important person on the world stage, which he loves. Just like Putin. So, Trump will be doing him a favour by going to talk to him. But will anything come of it? Will Kim Jong-un this time be in a conciliatory mood? No, of course not. He is committed to his nukes and will never give them up.

Why Putin asked for the Alaska summit

It was Vladimir Putin who asked Donald Trump for a meeting on Ukraine, and the White House picked on Alaska, the US territory closest to Russia. Everyone, including me, thought it was at least a positive move that Putin had asked for the summit. Trump leapt on the suggestion and the rest is red-carpet history. But, on reflection, it was actually Putin's cleverest move. He knew that if he requested a summit with Trump it would be seized on as a sign of the Russian leader's desperation to persuade Trump to go for a deal which would suit Moscow in every way. But, clearly, the cunning plan was very simple: Putin wanted to be back on the world stage and he knew that if he offered to meet Trump it would be greeted as a sign of weakness on his part when in fact it was a sign of his dominating strength. He got the full works from Trump, including a ride in The Beast armoured car that transports the US president around. All the world thought, this is brilliant, the war is going to come to an end. But Putin achieved exactly what he wanted. He trapped Trump into meeting and then because it provoked world headlines, he gambled, successfully, that if the summit didn't match up to expectations (which he knew it wouldn't), Trump wouldn't and couldn't then blast him with more severe sanctions, as he had promised he would do. So, the whole summit plan was a coup by Putin. He was able to outline his demands without being punished and then went home and continued bombing Ukraine. Post-summit, Putin is in a much better, stronger position, while Trump has got very little, even though JD Vance is claiming that Putin offered concessions. The concessions were so insignificant they weren't worth studying. So, Putin is winning, winning, winning.

Sanctions have totally failed to stop the Russian war in Ukraine

It has to be said that nothing the West has done so far, whether it be economic sanctions against Moscow or arms supplies to Kyiv have succeeded in stopping Putin from continuing to bomb and destroy Ukrainian cities and power infrastructure. It's the old story. Sanctions don't work. Why? Because whoever is being sanctioned finds ways to get round the restrictions and, in particular, finds countries who are still prepared to do business with Moscow. North Korea is heavily sanctioned for developing nuclear weapons but has it stopped Kim Jong-un's nuclear programme or driven his regime to its knees? No, absolutely not. North Korean people may be suffering but the regime is fine thank you very much. The same with Putin. The sanctions have caused problems but they have failed to make a huge difference. Russia is still trading and selling oil around the world, especially to China and India, and its economy is doing well enough to continue the war in Ukraine at full pelt. Even Trump's warning of severe consequences if the war doesn't come to an end soon is falling on stony ground. Putin doesn't care. He has built a war economy and the arms prpduction companies are doing very nicely. Sanctions sound a nice and easy way of forcing a country to behave, but they seldom ever work.

Pentagon's intelligence chief is fired over Iran nukes report

The least surprising development in the Trump world today was the sacking of Lieutenant-General Jeffery Kruse. the head of the Pentagon's Defence Intelligence Agency. He must have known he would be fired from the moment his agency unwisely published a report too soon after the US B-2 bombing of Iran's nuclear plants in June. The DIA claimed that, despite President Trump insisting Iran's nuclear weapons programme had been blasted into kingdom come, only a small amount of damage had been done to the three nuclear sites and that Tehran's clandestine project would be up and running in a matter of months. It was a stupidly imprudent report for several reasons: first, it was premature, all the DIA was basing its report on was satellite images of the bombed plants, second, you don't contradict what the president is claiming in his face, especially someone like Trump, and third, the DIA was wrong. Substantial damage WAS done to the three plants. Even the Iranians agreed to that. Later intelligence assessments said the bombings had put back Iran's enriched- uranium programme by at least a year and probably two years. Ok, so the sites were not incinerated, some stuff survived. But basically it was a huge blow to Tehran's undeclared ambition to build a nuclear bomb. So the DIA had egg all over its face. Why the agency decided to rush into such a quick assessment is unclear but to do so when Trump was telling the world that Iran's nuke plants were obliterated was just totally stupid. If the DIA had been proved right, it wouldn't have saved General Kruse's job but it might have put a bit of gloss on the agency. All in all, Kruse's sacking was just a matter of time. BUY MY NEW SUPER SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH, PUBLISHED AS A PAPERBACK BY ROWANVALE BOOKS. ORDER FROM AMAZON

The war in Ukraine is going to get much worse

If all txhe peace efforts and summits fail to find a solution to ending the war in Ukraine I can see the conflict getting much worse and much more dangerous. Russia is already using every missile at its disposal, including hypersonic systems and long-range cruise missiles. But Ukraine has been developing its own missiles with longer and longer ranges and these weapons are likely to be used on a much greater scale in the future to hit targets in Russia. This is when the war will become more scary. Ukraine has now got a long-range ground-launched cruise missile it calls Flamingo. It has a reported range of 3,000 kilometres or about 1,800 miles. Right now they are building one Flamingo every day but the production rate is expected to increase significantly. With this weapon, Kyiv can hit Russian military targats deep inside Russia. Even Donald Trump agrees that hitting Russia itself is an obvious way forward if you want to win the war. Russia is going to get targeted more and more. Will this finally force Putin to seek a negotiated deal? It might help.

Putin keeps up the toll of death and destruction in Ukraine

War is such a cynical business. Diplomacy, too, in the wrong hands is also a very cynical business. Vladimir Putin, just known as Vladimir to his supposed friend Donald Trump, is the most cynical of all leaders vis a vis war and diplomacy. He claimed he was ready to meet Zelensky but then backed off as soon as he had returned to Moscow. He then picked up the phone to his military people and said, bomb, bomb, bomb. Sure enough, more than 500 drones and missiles, including hysersonic and cruise missiles, were showered on Ukrainian cities. The message was clear. Putin will never do a deal with Zelensky to stop the bombing unless the Ukrainian leader capitulates totally and hands over his country to Russian domination. Putin doesn't really care a jot about Trump. Trump thinks of Putin as his friend, but Putin is not Trump's friend. It's all show and cunning. There will be no peace deal, there certainly will not be a coalition of willing European troops guarding Ukraine against further Russian aggression. Putin would never allow it anyway. The mass bombing today just proves that all along Putin has been playing with Trump and playing with the West. Remember, his real friends are Xi Zinping, the Communist leader of China who wants total domination in his region of the world and is seen by the Pentagon as America's future adversary, Kim Jong-un, the North Korean dictator who is adding more and more warheads to his nuclear stockpile, and Ayatollah Khamenei, the tyrant of Iran who hates America and the West. These are Putin's natural bedfellows. The push for peace in Ukraine was and is a thankless and ultimately unachievable dream. So, everything in Anhorage was just a chance for Putin to demonstrate he is in charge of what will happen to Ukraine. Trump and Macron and Mertz and Starmer and Meloni et al are pushing against a concrete wall and Putin is safely on the other side, laughing.

Putin has given Trump a big dilemma over Ukraine

Donald Trump is used to getting everything his own way. That's how he does business. If he wants a deal, he gets a deal. But Vladimir Putin is screwing him over. Everything coming out of the Kremlin right now, whether it's in Putin's words or in the doleful voice of Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, the focus is on slowing everything down. Slow, slow, no quick, no quick, slow. Lavrov says if there is to be a meeting between Putin and President Zelensky there has to be a long process, step by step, with officials doing all the groundwork and then building up to a potential formula for more meetings etc etc. Actually, this is how summits are normally planned to be fair. But we have Trump in the White House and he wants instant drama and instant decisions and instant ends of crises. Moscow, and certainly Lavrow, the old, old timer, doesn't like to do business that way. Nyet, nyet, nyet. So, all the excitement and enthusiasm generated by Trump's meeting with Putin Anchorage has now ground down to the minutiae of summit planning which means that if there is ever a session between Putin and Zelensky, it won't be for months and months. Even if both sides agree in principal there will be long arguments about where it should take place. I see Politico is claiming Trump administration sources are putting Budapest forward, and Switzerland has offered a venue, promising not to arrest Putin for war crimes. A nice touch, that. Putin says it should be Moscow, but Zelensky will never set foot in Moscow. So, that's a no, no. You see what I mean? This coud all take a long time. Meanwhile, the war and the killing and the destruction and the kidnaps of Ukrainian children will go on. Trump is going to get more and more frustrated and angry and then it will all burst into a right old mess. But Putin won't care because, basically, he just wants to carry on trying to subjugate Ukraine. All this Trump charm offensive is so much blather.

What game is Putin really playing?

The one thing that Keir Starmer has got right is that Vladimir Putin doesn't want peace. Well, not peace at any cost. If there is going to be peace in Ukraine, whatever that means, it will be on Putin's terms. Donald Trump is convinced that Putin does want a peace deal and was caught saying so on a hot mic when talking to Emmanuel Macron at the White House gathering yesterday. But Starmer is right, Putin is not interested in a deal. Not yet. He wants to make sure that if and when there is an end to the war, he has everything or most of it, tucked up neatly in a bag, so that Zelensky has nothing left to negotiate with. So, despite all the supposedly promising signs that Trump is putting out, especially his announcement that Putin has agreed to a meeting with Zelensky - maybe in two weeks - the Russian president hasn't changed his position one iota. His message is still the same as it has been ever since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. I have respect for Senator Lindsey Graham, the Republican with a nose for foreign affairs, who claims, rightly in my view, that the only reason Putin asked for the summit with Trump in Alaska was to forestall the US from imposing a massive 500 per cent tarrif on India and others who still buy Russian oil. The 50 per cent tariff already imposed on India persuaded Putin that he needed to do something fast to stop the tariff rising to 500 per cent, a level which is in a bill laid before Congress by Lindsey Graham. It's the old adage, leaders like Putin only come running when put under huge pressure. Putin is scared that if India and maybe China, the two biggest importers of Russian oil, have 500 per cent tariffs put on them, the Russian economy will go down the drain very rapidly. So, very cleverly, he told Trump he was ready to meet for a summit, and it worked. Trump played the summit like a baby, grinning and smiling at everything Putin said and did. Putin got what he wanted. There wasn't even a hint of a 500 per cent tariff on Russia's oil importers. In fact Trump proved to be as good as gold. No "severe consequences" for failing to agree a ceasefire, and suddenly, no talk of ceasefire anymore. Round One definitely went to Putin. Lindsey Graham is right, smash the Russian economy with massive sanctions, then and only then will Putin beg for mercy and do a deal.

European leaders' last throw

On the face of it, today's meeting at the White House is Donald Trump versus Zelensky and all the major European leaders. It's not going to be a love-in, and it's not going to be an alliance-led judgment call to end the war in Ukraine. This war is now all about Trump and Putin. I'm not sure anyone else will really get a look in. Marco Rubio, US secretary of state and national security adviser and half a dozen other jobs, says Europe has been consulted from the beginning, so today's meeting is not a confrontation with Europe. But that's precisely what it is because Trump has made it clear he agrees with Putin that the only way to stop the death and destruction - which continues by the way - is for Zelensky to hand over the two regions in Donbas that the Russian leader has his eye on - Donetsk and Luhansk. There are parts of these two key regions which Ukraine still holds and regards as vital defensive positions to stop further advances by Russian troops. If they are forced to hand over both regions, that will provide Putin with a terrific strategic advantage, giving him the chance in the future to launch further attacks. But Trump seems to want Zelensky to aceept and will expect all the European leaders to follow like lambs. But they can't and nor can Zelensky because that's what these last three and a half years have been all about - fighting the Russians and driving them back over the border, not allowing them to keep the land they have seized, around 20 per cent of Ukraine. This is not going to happen but Zelensky and Europe are stuck because of their adamant refusal to cmnsider land-swaps. Impasse, I think.

Trump has accepted the Ukraine war reality

All the commentators on the so-called summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have come to the conclusion - including me - that the Russian leader got what he wanted and the US president left with nothing except rising concern ringing in the ears of Kyiv and the whole of Europe. But let's look at it another way. Trump is, I assume, a realist and during the summit he must have realised that the Big Deal in which everyone would be happy is just not on the cards. As Trump warned Zelensky at that infamous Oval Office spat, Ukraine has no cards to play. Trump has realised that whatever he does as the US president - ie more sanctions against Russia, more weapons for Ukraine - it's probably not going to make a difference because Putin will carry on the war however much economic suffering he has to endure. After all, he doesn't seem to care that a million Russian troops have now been killed or wounded in the war, so why worry too much about sanctions. He has always got China, North Korea, Iran and India to rely on to keep trading with him. This is the reality that I think hit Trump between the eyes in the summit. The session with Putin lasted three and a half hours but actually you can cut that in half because of the reqwuirement to translate everything as they went along. Putin didn't budge from his red lines. He has never budged from his red lines. While Trump has prevaricated over his stance on Ukraine so many times that no one knows from day to day what he will come with next. But the summit reminded Trump that actually Putin has all the cards and he is not going to end the war unless he gets all the land he wants which is pretty much the whole of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. And, most importantly, Putin is not remotely interested in a ceasefire. What will he gain by a ceasefire? Nothing. So that's why Trump didn't mention the need for a ceasefire, he just focused on the reality which is that the war will not come to an end without Zelensky caving in and agreeing to hand over the land Putin wants. This is the message, loud and clear, which Zelensky is going to get when he meets Trump in the White House tomorrow and it's the message which every European leader is going to get. Accept reality or see the war going on for ever. That's the message Trump must have got from the summit at the US military base outside Anchorage. This presents a huge crisis for Europe. Do they go along with the Trump assessment or continue supporting Ukraine with weapons and diplomatic back-up? If they do the latter, Putin's smile will just get bigger and bigger. BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH, A RIVETING READ ACCORDING TO ALL THOSE WHO HAVE BOUGHT IT. GET IT FROM AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES, ETC.

Trump got nothing, Putin got everything

There is no other way of summing up the "historic" summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on American soil. Putin arrived with a smile on his face and left with a broad grin. He spoke to Trump and his small team for three and a half hours at the meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, and offered absolutely zilch in terms of a ceasefire in Ukraine, let alone,a path towards a peaceful settlement. Well, of course, there is no such thing as a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, just a deal to stop the killing. That's not the same thing. Putin spouted for far too long about relations between the US and Russia and how much he enjoyed Trump's company but the word "ceaefire" never left his lips at the bizarre no-questions press conference and because Trumpo allowed him to speak first, the US president had to stand there like a shop-window mannekin while his Moscow counterpart rambled on and on, speaking from a prepared statement which could have been written a long time ago. Everything went Putin's way. Trump didn't say he was disappointed about failing to get any sort of deal and he didn't say, as he had promised, that as the summit had failed he would impose caatstrophic sanctions on Russia. He said none of that. All Trump did was to say there had been progress, that he liked Vladimir very much and they got on well. Putin beamed. When he returned to Moscow the same night, he must have been greeted as a returning hero. And by the way, the drones and ballistic missiles kept on being launched at Ukraine. So, no change there. It was, in a nutshell, a red-carpet, charm offensive but all done with mirrors. Nothing was achieved. Zero out of zero. Zelensky has no chance of getting any sort of deal that will benefit Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH, OUT NOW - AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS, WATERSTONES.

Two men with their nuclear codes sitting opposite each other

It's alays a bizarre thought that when the presidents of the United States and Russia get together they always have the briefcase with nuclear warfare codes inside just a few feet away. Armageddon is always a finger-pressure button nearby. It's why Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will know that when they sit down for their session on the Ukraine war this evening at a US military base near Anchorage in Alaska, they are without much argument the two most powerful people on earth. That fact alone makes it less likely that there will be a deal to end the war at the summit because neither leader will want to be seen to be defeated by the other and neither will want the other to claim victory. What normally happens in these cases is that both leaders claim victory and then spend the next few weeks trying to prove that they came out better. If Putin feels Trump is not going his way, all he needs do is nod to his military people and they will order massive bombing of Kyiv and other cities in Ukraine. If Trump feels Putin is not budging, he will tell his Treasury people to start building a new massive sanctions package to damage Russia's war economy. In reality, there will be no real drama. Both sides will have a long chat and then let their officials have a further session in a different room and they will produce a document of sorts which points the way forward for another meeting. And so it will go on. BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH, SEQUEL TO SHADOW LIVES. OUT NOW WITH AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS AND WATERSTONES.

How might the Trump-Putin summit go?

The Trump-Putin summit in Alaska could be the flop of the century or turn out to be the first step towards negotiating a ceasefire in Ukraine and an end to the war. The White House has been trying to downgrade expectations of any breakthrough and has described the meeting on Friday as an opportunity for President Trump to listen to President Putin’s pitch and assess whether the Russian leader actually wants peace or not. Trump says he will be able to do this within two minutes. While it might be sensible to lower expectations, always a favourite ploy of political leaders, the Anchorage summit might just be different. First of all, Putin asked for it, and secondly, he has hanging over his head Trump’s threats to ratchet up economic sanctions. If Putin plans to pursue his war in Ukraine and, possibly, have other military adventures in the future, he can ill afford Russia’s economy to worsen. The key to the summit will be whether Putin shows even a hint of compromise. If Putin starts the session with a drawn-out monologue about how the war can never come to an end without the ‘root causes’ being accepted and respected by Trump – principally Nato’s open-door policy which allowed Ukraine to be considered as a future member of the alliance – then the talks may never get off the ground. However, Putin has learned much from his relatively long association with Trump. He knows Trump is sceptical of Ukraine ever joining Nato, and he will be hopeful that he can get that in writing, something which America’s western alliance partners will be desperate to prevent. The alternative, at this stage no doubt unacceptable in Moscow, would be a cleverly-framed security guarantee agreement in which Ukraine would have US and European military backing to deter Moscow from launching any future invasion of Ukraine. It would be a sort of Nato-lite arrangement. If that were to happen, then Kyiv might be persuaded to give up some of the Russian-occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine (as well as Crimea). At the moment, President Zelensky and nearly all European leaders are adamantly opposed to any land-swap. The wily Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump supporter and a veteran international security affairs protagonist, said in an NBC News interview at the weekend that land exchanges would only happen ‘after you have security guarantees to Ukraine to prevent Russia from doing this again. ‘You need to tell Putin what happens if he does it a third time,’ Graham said, referencing Russia’s annexing of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, 2022. One bizarre option for the occupied territories supposedly discussed by Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, is to convert them into Moscow-governed regions without Kyiv having to concede sovereignty. According to a report in the Times, it would be a formula similar in style and structure to the Palestinian territory of the West Bank, which is occupied by Israeli troops. The idea would be to get round Ukraine's constitution which disallows any ceding of territory unless approved by a national referendum. The White House gave the idea short shrift. So who will have the upper hand at the Friday summit to be held at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, 11 miles north-east of Anchorage and 4,500 miles from Moscow? Despite being a self-professed dealmaker, Trump will be at a disadvantage. He has already indicated that any peace deal is bound to involve Moscow holding on to some of the territory it is currently occupying. Crimea is a given in his mind and key parts of Donbas, consisting of the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, are also likely to be prominent in his land-swap blueprint. But he has President Zelensky and European allies ranged against him. Zelensky refuses to consider any handover of territory occupied by Russian invaders and he, and Europe, say concessions of this nature would be an invitation to Putin to plot further aggression in the future. This argument will have been underlined during the video conference yesterday between Trump, Zelensky and key European leaders, including Keir Starmer. Trump knows all the arguments. He has heard them over and over again. But he seems to feel that Putin is ready for a deal of some sort, and he wants to exploit that to find a way of avoiding all the fears emanating from Kyiv and European capitals. Trump does have cards of his own. If Putin declines a ceasefire, Trump has serious sanctions at- the-ready, including penalising all countries still buying cheap Russian oil. He can also tell Putin that if he rejects all attempts to stop the bombing of Ukrainian cities, the US will start delivering to Kyiv on a large scale the sort of long-range weapons which can put military targets inside Russia at much greater risk. Putin doesn’t have everything going his way. The battlefield landscape has changed in his favour, but not dramatically so. For example, Russian troops are trying to encircle and overcome Pokrovsk, a strategic city northwest of Donetsk which is vital for Ukrainian military resupply logistics. Although Russian forces have made tactical advances, they have failed to follow through with any significant success. This has been the story of the war in eastern Ukraine. Putin would have wanted a victory on the battlefield in this region to provide him with leverage at the Alaska summit. But Ukrainian temerity and the exploitation of advanced drone warfare have stymied the Russians. For the summit in Alaska to be deemed successful, much will obviously depend on the personal relationship between Trump and Putin. Trump seemed genuinely angry after he spoke on the phone to the Russian leader in early July only for Russia to launch 550 drones and missiles in one of the largest attacks on Ukraine. This is why Zelensky has emphasised repeatedly that Putin must agree to a ceasefire before any serious peace negotiations can begin. After Putin’s previous blatant rejection of Trump’s phone-call peace efforts, the US President will surely demand new ground rules when they sit down together at the military base near Anchorage. Ceasefire first, and then a framework for peace, with Zelensky invited as a co-participant. BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH, SEQUEL TO SHADOW LIVES, BOTH STARRING SUPER UNOFFICIAL SPY REBECCA STRONG. ORDER/BUY FROM AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS AND WATERSTONES.

Putin's swagger walk bodes ill for the summit

The two men walk differently. Vladimir Putin is short in stature and walks as if he has a bouncy castle in his shoes. He also walks slightly lopsided with more emphasis with his left arm than his right, as if he is preparing to launch off somewhere. He walks with a very firm progress, often down long carpeted corridors in the Kremlin until he meets for a shake hands with his latest visitor. He doesn't smile but he looks pleased. Donald Trump, on the other hand, is a big bloke and walks like a big bloke, with arms down by his side, head slightly bent forward. It's a slumbrous walk, not fast, but sort of slow and business-like. He wears a looser fitting suit than Putin. Putin always, on first entry onto the public stage, does up his middle jacket button. Trump sometimes does but also quite likes to have the suit jacket hanging loose. Trump enjoys his height and bigness. Putin makes up for his lack of height by being positively jaunty. All of these characteristics will be observed and monitored and analysed during the one-day summit in Alaska. When they meet for the cameras, Trump will win because he will tower over Putin but once they are sitting down, that advantage will vanish. Both Trump and Putin will lean forward when they are sitting at the negotiating table. Height won't matter. Putin has one big advantage. He has been president for much longer than Trump and is very comfortable in his skin. Trump will be worrying all the time about his hair. Putin doesn't have to worry about that.

Why is the White House lowering expectations for the Putin summit?

There is no point in having low expections for this upcoming Trump-Putin extravaganza. Why bother make the journey if all we are going to get is a Putin victory parade or a Putin nothing-doing show or a smiley-smiley handshakey get-together where the weather in Alaska takes up most of the conversation. The White House is dampening down any expectation of any sort of deal. But I think this is all part of the deliberate policy to warn us ordinary folk that this summit is just a way of meeting face-to-face with Putin but nothing else. This is probably nonsense. In the real world, you don't even have a summit unless the whole procedure has been orchestrated by officials. Behind the scenes, before the announcement of the Alaska meeting, an agreement will have been reached between Trump's people and Putin's people for a breakthrough of some sort. Otherwise, as I say, it's all pointless. So, Putin is going to come up with a compromise. It may be a tiny one but it will give Trump what he needs - progress or perceived progress towards an end to the war. Trump will also come up with a Big Idea, also already discussed between Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, and Putin, when they met in Moscow last week. Trump has said he will walk out if Putin says nothing to give hope of an end to the war. But Trump won't walk out because everything has been agreed. This is the way business has always been done when it comes to summits. Well, not always. Trump did walk out from his summit with Kim Jong-un in his first term in the White House. But that's because the North Korean leader had not played by the rules. What was agreed beforehand didn't materialise. More fool Kim Jong-un. Putin, I suspect, is far too wily to give Trump nothing.

Trump and Israeli settlers share one thing in common

Washington DC may be 15 hours flying time from Ramallah in the West Bank but the two places are currently engaged in the same kind of people-movement strategy. Donald Trump has sudenly become worried about crime in Washington DC, even though the violent crime rates are significantly down, and he has ordered all homeless people living on the streets in the capital to move out and find somewhere else to live. Likewise, Israeli settlers, not the most gentle of souls, are stepping up their efforts to expand their territorial presence in the West Bank which entails driving Palestinian people from their homes. It's an ugly business and coincides with the Israeli government's intention to force all 800,000 Palestinians out of Gaza City while the military seeks out the last live and dead hostages, and root out the remaining Hamas gunmen - still believed to be in their thousands. In the Bosnia war in the 1990s, it used to be called ethnic cleansing. But in Israel, it's described as the right strategy to eliminate Hamas and keep the Israeli borders safe. In Washington, the plan to force out all homeless people who live in tents dotted around the capital, is all about prettyfying and safeguarding the US capital. The last time I went to Washington it all looked pretty clean and safe. The thousands of tents on every blade of grass in the capital had gone. But Trump is of the view that the mayor of Washington has failed to keep the capital city safe and he wants to send National Guard soldiers and FBI agents to patrol the streets. That's on top of the myriad of police forces which already patrol the city, and the Secret Service which mounts 24-hour armed protection around and in the vicinity of the White House. Getting rid of undesirable people is now the Big Thing. Personally, I feel sorry for the homeless in Washington and the Palestinians being forced out of their homes in the West Bank.