What is actually left of Gaza?

Because foreign journalists are banned from entering Gaza to cover the war - apart from a few escorted visits a long time ago - it's impossible to know how much of Gaza is actually left. Is there any building in the whole of the Strip which has not in some form or other been scarred by bombs and bullets or destroyed? The two milion people of Gaza are living as displaced people in tents. The only images we get of the tiny territory show World War 11-type destruction. But there must be some areas which are relatively untouched? Is this possible? Israel is now embarking on a new ground offensive to find Hamas and the remaining hostages which will mean more destruction, and one has to ask, when it's all over, if that ever happens, what on earth is the world going to do about rebuilding Gaza? Will Israel even allow it or will Benjamin Netanyahu decide it's in Israel's interest to keep Gaza as a place of rubble so that Hamas cannot reinvent itself and go back to threatening Israelis. If this is the case, then the population of Gaza, what's left of it, will have to be found new homes. There is already talk of countries offering to take Palestinians from Gaza. Mossad chief David Barnea is supposed to have had discussions with Ethiopia, Indonesia and Libya. Really? Is this honestly the answer? Does anyone ever mention the two-state solution any more? This has clearly died a death. Right now, there is no future for the Palestinian people.

The continuing killing of Palestinians in Gaza has to stop

Almost every day there are grim reports of Palestinians, often in their dozens, being killed in air attacks by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), often, it is claimed, while queuing up for UN food aid. Civilian deaths in war are always tragic, always unacceptable but, sadly, always inevitable. However, the toll of civilian deaths in Gaza, now purported by the Hamas-run health service to total 60,000 (although at least 17,000 of those were Hamas fighters), has reached a level that is way beyond acceptable or proportionate. Added to that, the IDF is bulldozing huge areas of urban living areas, reducing homes to rubble. What is the objective, what is the meaning of this? Can it be any longer justified by the IDF mantra that every Hamas member must be eliminated? The more Hamas members are killed, the more radicalised the people of Gaza will become and the more likely it is that they will be replaced by fanatical jihadists who will join the cause against Israel. Hamas, in other words, will probably keep going because their ranks of survivors will be boosted by jihadist volunteers which means the war will never come to an end. It's the civilian deaths which in the end will force Israel to compromise on its objectives because even Donald Trump, a devout supporter of Israel, will put his foot down. The civilian deaths in Gaza have to stop.

Trump and MAGA unite over "defamatory" Epstein article

In the Donald Trump and MAGA world there's nothing mnore likely to unite them inextricably than an article in a heavyweight newspaper they claim to be false and defamatory. Trump is using The Wall Street Journal for $10 billion over the sensational report yesterday that he sent a letter to the sex trafficker Jeffery Epstein to mark his 50th birthday with a drawing of a naked woman and his signature over a lower party of that sketch. With Trump claiming he never sent the letter and had never drawn a sketch of a naked woman, his supporters in MAGA who had become angry at the president's failure to release everything about the Epstein grand jury investigation, leapt to his defence and turned their attention to the Big Bad Media, their favourite topic. This is likely to go on and on. The Wall Street Journal is sticking by its story and presumably has a copy, fake or otherwise, or the original alleged Trump drawing. Meanwhile he and his loyal supporters are back to their former cosy love-in and hamering away at the newspaper for publishing a "fabricated" letter. One interesting and curious development is that while Trump denies doing drawings - not his style - he has actually done numerous ones in the past, all or mostly all, of tall buildings which he has given to charity to raise funds for different organisations. Good for him but it does raise a tiny question: he appears to have a talent for drawing sketches of buildings along a waterfront, all with his familiar signature written at the bottom. If this libel suit ever gets to court, there will no doubt be a full exchange on Trump's past drawing abilities.

Cover-ups always get found out

Politicians never learn. What really gets to people are cover-ups. We appear to have two going on at the moment: one in the US over the late convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, and here in the UK over the release of personal data about thousands of Afghans who worked for the British in the war in Afghanistan and the names of special forces and MI6 personnel who backed them. The Epstein conspiracy theories, both about his supposed secret client list and his death in a prison cell in 2019 have been running for a long time but have suddenly leapt again into the headlines because the Wall Street Journal has reported that Donald Trump wrote a letter to Epstein on his 50th birthday and included a hand-drawn picture of a naked woman with his partial signature written over it. Trump has said it's a total fabrication and denies ever writing such a letter, let alone drawing a picture of a naked woman. He is suing the paper and, as Trump would say, we'll see what happens next. Also Pam Bondi, the attorney general, has confused everyone by first saying she had an Epstein client list on her desk and then denied having any such thing. So whether it's a cover up or not, it seems like one to most people. So, unless Trump wants this to linger on all summer, total transparency should be the order of the day. Let it all out. Likewise in the UK, this gross leak identifying thousands of potentially vulnerable Afghans and the superinjunction imposed to stop anyone knowing about it should be sorted as quickly as possible. Conservative defence ministers from the last government who were responsible for covering it all up have said they did it to save lives. Prove it.

Syrian leader has toughest job in the world

Ahmed al-Sharaa, the Syrian president, must be eligible for the "most difficult job in the world" title, followed closely by Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. The new Syrian leader who did the Syrians and the world a favour by ousting President Bashir al-Assad, has just had his presidential palace bombed by Israel. While it must surely be in Israel's national interest for a new leader in neighbouring Syria to be given a chance to forge stability and peace in his country, Benjamin Netanyahu doesn't like the way the minority Druze people in Syria are being treated, so he sent jet fighters in to bomb a few government targets to get the message across that the Druze (allies of Israel) who live in the southwest and near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights (formerly part of Syria) and in a suburn of Damascus must be protected from discriminatory attacks. Bombing seems to be the answer every time in the Middle East these days. Al-Sharaa has enough trouble on his hands what with the heady mix of Isis, al-Qaeda, numerous other militia groups, Turkish forces, American troops etc etc, all pounding their beat in different parts of the country. Throughout it all, he is trying to rebuild Syria's economy and develop relations with a formerly hostile western world and sort out Vladimir Putin who wants to keep his troops and aircraft in the country which he had been allowed to do under Assad. Bombing by Israel must have been the last straw.

Nightmare human crisis on Iran/Afghanistan border

Apart from the daily slaughter of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, can there be anywhere worse on the planet right now than Afghanistan? More than one million Afghans who have lived in poverty but relative safety in Iran, some for all of their lives, are being kicked out of Iran as illegal immigrants and thrown to the mercy of the Taleban. These Iranian refugees are not wanted in Iran where they have become a source of hatred and persecution and they are not wanted in Afghanistan where the Taleban does not want, nor can afford, to take responsibility for them. Some will temporarily find refuge with relatives but since the majority of Afghanistan's 41 million population are living close to or actual poverty, with no jobs, little food and constant fear, these million or so Afghans from Iran will soon be in desperate straights. Can the world help? Does the world care? The biggest problem for these poor people is that the western world is so relieved to be shot of Afghanistan that they cannot be stirred to launch a massive assistance programme. The Taleban won't allow it and since the Kabul government is not recognised by the vast majority of the planet, there is little incentive to do anything that might benefit the medieval rulers. So these million Afghans have a terrible future ahead of them. Many will die. Men, women and children kicked out of Iran in intense heat only to perish in what is supposed to be their own country of origin.

Trump and "great gentleman" King Charles

There has been such a fuss about Donald Trump's upcoming State Visit to Britain in September. Was he deliberately snubbed when it was made clear he wouldn't be addressing the Houses of Parliament? Obama did. Was it a poke in the nose when President Emmanuel Macron was invited fo a State Visit before him? Was it going to be a nightmare for Charles, having had his own state visit to Canada recently when Trump was earbashing the new leader Mark Carney and telling Canada to become America's 51st state? Judging by a twenty-minute chat with the BBC's Gary O'Donoghue, chief North America correspondent, Trump is all very relaxed about the trip to Britain. He says he doesn't want MPs to give up their holidays to come and listen to him giving a speech during parliamentary recess, and insists all he wants to do is meet up with King Charles whom he describes as a "great gentleman". Not addressing parliament will probably save him from a lot of protesting anti-Trumpers. The last time he came on an officiaL visit to Britain during his first term in office, some idiots flew a huge rubber Trump baby balloon over central London which I thought at the time was unnecessarily disrespectful. I doubt the people of Windsor, where the State Visit will take place, will resort to such rudeness, for the sake of the king.

Trump is back on Ukraine's side

It took a few hiccups and a dressing down in the Oval Office, but Donald Trump is now back on side, pro-Ukraine and pro-arming Ukraine. It has taken six months of prevarication and six months of brutal bombing by Putin. But today Trump announced a new arms deal for Kyiv and a potential sanctions programme against Moscow. No longer a friend of Putin because of the Russian leader's betrayal of the so-called trust between the two, Trump has decided to go all out to help his former sparring partner Volodymyr Zelensky. What a reversal of intentions, what a change in mood on the part of the US president. And it's all because he is angry with Putin for playing him along. Every time they chatted on the phone, Putin talked "nice", as Trump later said. But then off he went and bombed Ukraine to bits. That was like Trump being slapped hard in the face and you don't do that to a man like Trump. So Zelensky is now his new best friend and the dancing with Putin days are over. I wonder if Putin realises he has miscalculated. Having Trump on his side was surely a bonus for him, but now he has screwed up. Bye bye Putin.

Russia to attack Britain in five years?

According to yet another British Army general, we have just five years before an invasion by Russia. The government, he says, should start building nuclear bunkers for everyone. What the hell is wrong with all these generals? Britain is not sitting on its own, vulnerable to a massive Russian attack. We are part of the most successful and powerful defence alliance in history. If Putin is seriously considering attacking Britain, and Britain alone, he will face a counter-strike by the US and the whole alliance. Moscow will be obliterated (a favourite Trump word). This is called deterrence, nuclear deterrence. Does Putin, and this British general, seriously think it would make any sense for Russia to select Britain to be removed from the planet? This is all nonsense and scary stuff, and silly. Russia can't even defeat Ukraine, let alone take on the whole Nato alliance. So, please, all these scaremongering generals, remind youreselves it's all about deterrence and allies. We don't need this poor Labour government of ours to start spending billions on nuclear bunkers everywhere.

9/11 accused conspirators lose plea to stop death sentence

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the alleged mastermind of 9/11 and three alleged co-conspirators are back where they started. For years they have been fighting to get a legal deal to stop them facing the death sentence. They actually agreed to plead guilty in return for getting a life sentence instead of facing capital punishment. The bargain was approved by a senior figure in the Pentagon but it was abruptly overturned by the then defence secretary, Lloyd Austin. Then his decision was overturned and now the Appeals Court has reinstated the death sentence. All accused have been in Guantanamo Bay detention centre for so long they have probably forgotten how long it has been. It's about 20 years. They live in a twilight world in Guantanamo under conditions of maximum security. They will never be released and now once again they face the death penalty if they ever come to trial. For reasons that are eminently understandable, no one in America cares a jot about them, but it is wholly right that they should be brought to trial and dealt with in a proper way according to the rules of US justice.

Why did Pete Hegseth act without asking Trump first?

In the Trump administration, especially in the Trump administration, surely nothing is done without the president's prior knowledge and say-so? But apparently Pete Hegseth, his often-embattled ex-Fox News defence secretary, went ahead with a decision that was hugely political, and didn't inform the White House. Trump had to admit he knew nothing about it. Extraordinary. The decision was about suspending deliveries of Patriot missiles and other vital weapons to Kyiv to give the Pentagon a chance to do an inventory of arms left in US storage for the US's own use. While that might seem to be practical and sensible, it was, of course, no such thing because suspending arms to Ukraine can have a catastrophic impact in the war-ravaged country and sends all the wrong signals both to Kyiv and to every western ally supporting the Kyiv government against the Russian invaders. In other words, arms to Ukraine is a US administration policy. It's a projection of US power against Moscow. It's a political and diplomatic statement. It's everything. Stopping the arms flow to allow the Pentagon to count their own weapons is like stopping direct debits at your bank because you are not sure you have enough money coming in each month. How could Hegseth have thought he could authorise this Patriot-missile suspension without talking to the White House first, especially at a time when Putin is bombarding Ukrainian cities with missiles and drones on a scale never seen before since the invasion began on February 24, 2022? As soon as Trump realised what had happened he reversed the decision and told Zelensky the next batch of Patriots were on their way. Meanwhile, therre IS a shortage of weaponns in the Pentagon's stocks, especially Patriot missile interceptors, but it's their job to up production on a huge scale. Every country wants Patriots. Hegseth must be treading on such thin ice it's like he better learn to swim.

Trump is getting angry with Putin

The so-called personal relationship between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin has come to nothing. It has born no fruit. It is empty gesture stuff. It's baloney. Why? Because Putin is playing the game. He's not interested in what Trump wants, he only wants what he wants. So every time he picks up the phone to talk to Trump he pretends to offer partnership and hope for a better future, and even maybe an end to the war in Ukraine but as soon as he puts the phone down he rings the ministry of defence and tells his defence minister to blast the hell out of Kyiv. Now Trump is getting frustrated and angry with Putin. He has realised that all his efforts have fallen by the way side because Putin is deaf. In both ears. He can't hear anything unless it sounds like something he thinks is good for him and for his Russian expansion dreams. So Putin answers Trump with more bombings. Which is why Trump has totally reversed a decision made by the Pentagon's policy chief only a short time ago to halt the delivery of Patriot missiles and rocket rounds to Ukraine while he checks out the department's inventory of weapons, fearing the stocks are getting too low. One phone call from Zelensky and Trump scraps that idea and promises more Patriot batteries and missiles to Kyiv to combat the massive increase in missiles and bombs and drones launched from Russia against Ukrainian cities. It's the one US weapon system that really pisses off Putin because he knows it has more capability than any other system to thwart his strikes against Ukraine. So, Trump is angry with Putin, and Putin is no doubt angry with Trump. Thus the Beautiful, Big Friendship has come to an end.

State visit for French president who does nothing to stop migrants boating across the Channel

Thousands and thousands of migrants from across the world climb into small rubber dingies on the beaches of Calais, goaded on by criminal smugglers and generally watched by inactive French police officers, and try to make the perilous Channel crossing to Britain. It has been going on for years, large numbers have drowned, but still they come, especially when the weather is clement. They pack into the boats in their dozens, with no room to move. Still, the Gendarmerie just watch. Occasionally they take action, like last week when they saw a boat was so top-heavy they feared all would probably drown mid-Channel and a police officer stepped forward with a knife and slashed the rubber hull and it sank in shallow waters. The migrants stepped out and retreated across the beach. But this was just one occasion. Mostly, the boats leave the Calais beaches and no one stops them. The rubber boat that was slashed with a knife was almost exclusively packed with young, fit-looking men, with a few women to make up the numbers. So it wasn't a boatload of starving women and children from Sudan, or petrified-looking children from war zones. These were hearty young men who no doubt returned the next day and climbed into another boat. So, as President Emmanuel Macron enjoys the hospitality of the king and queen and the British people and travels around in a golden coach and walks on red carpets, perhaps he might reflect that it's time after all the promises actually to stop these boats from leaving the French shores. Will it happen? I doubt it.

Gaza is a place of total anarchy

It's impossible to know the full extent of what life is like in Gaza because Israel doesn't allow journalists to cover the war from inside the territorial strip of land. There are plenty of reports appearing in the world's press and television and radio based on brave Palestinian, Gaza-resident journalists. But the war needs to be covered by outsiders, journalists who have war-correspondent exsperience and can give us a complete picture. There is a brilliant piece on the BBC World website today which gives an alarming account of life inside Gaza, provided by a former Hamas security officer who now lives in Cairo. So he's not there in Gaza but one assumes he has all the right contacts. He says there is anarchy in the Strip with gangs and groups rivalling Hamas who are trying to overthrow the so-called "rulers" of Gaza. He says Hamas has lost control of Gaza and its leadership annihilated and that there are different political groups, no doubt financed by Israel, who are pulling together to get rid of Hamas. While that might sound like a solution for Israel, it surely means even more danger for the Palestinian residents. There are, the former Hamas official says, armed groups who are trying to take over who stop people at a whim. So there is war and anarchy and rebellion. How is it possible for Palestinian citizens to survive in this appalling and terrifying environment? Is the world caring enough? No.

Israel and Hamas talk but to brick walls

When it was announced that Israel and Hamas would talk about a ceasefire, it might have seemed a positive development. But the two sides in the ghastly war in Gaza are so far apart that I doubt a ceasefire of any kind will hold for more than a day or so. Hamas demands an end to the war and the withdrawal of all Israel Defence Forces troops, and that's not going to happen, not according to Benjamin Netanyahu. And, understandably, Netanyahu wants all remaining hostages, dead and alive, to be released and returned to their families, and that's not going to happen unless the IDF gets out of Gaza. Voila! A vicious circle. We might get a couple of hostages released with something offered by Israel. But a long-term ceasefire? An end to the war? Still, I fear, a long way to go.

Ukraine needs Patriots

Ukraine has survived more than three years of Vladimir Putin’s war because of massive western arms supplies, an appreciation and exploitation of Russian military weaknesses, audacious special forces missions and an extraordinarily successful development of home-grown drones. All these ingredients have helped Kyiv hold off the Russian forces, saved Volodymyr Zelensky from early capitulation and prevented Putin from marching further into Europe. An achievement by any standards of modern warfare. However, the balance of power between Russia and Ukraine, a very tenuous concept over the last three years as Putin turned to hypersonic weaponry to strike at Ukrainian cities, depended on the continuous arms flow from the US and Europe, particularly from the Pentagon. Now, the hierarchy at the Pentagon has decided that the weapons stocks held for the US armed forces have been reduced to such a dangerous level as a result of the generous handover of weapons to the Kyiv government, that key systems are being withheld to give the American defence department a chance to recoup its arsenals to ensure full readiness for war whenever and wherever it may occur. While the checking of inventories is a vital responsibility for the Pentagon chiefs, the decision to suspend some of the weapons’ deliveries to Ukraine couldn’t have happened at a worst time. Russia has amassed 50,000 troops along Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast in the north, and overnight on Sunday Moscow launched 477 drones and 60 missiles, targeting seven Ukrainian towns and cities, in the largest Russian attack of the war so far. In Ukraine the most desirable and most in-demand weapon to protect the country from Russian air attacks is the US Patriot missile system. Ukraine has about eight batteries of Patriots, each of which can consist of between six and eight launchers with stocks of PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptors. Zelensky has appealed for a total of 25 Patriot launchers to provide an integrated air defence system for Ukraine. Patriot, more than any other air defence system, has shot down hundreds if not thousands, of Russian drones and missiles, preventing mass destruction in the country’s major towns. However, after a thorough weapons count in US arms stocks, the Pentagon has now reportedly halted deliveries of PAC-3 interceptors to Kyiv, along with munitions fired by the US Army’s High Mobility Rocket System (HIMARS) and the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), as well as 155mm artillery rounds, portable Stinger anti-airweapons and Hellfire anti-tank missiles. The decision to suspend deliveries of these vital weapons was made after an investigation of US munition stockpiles ordered by Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon’s powerful policy chief. There have been concerns ever since the war in Ukraine began and the Biden administration started sending US weapons to Ukraine to defend against the Russian invaders, that American armed forces’ munitions stocks could run low. These concerns have intensified since Donald Trump came to power, especially after the US involvement in attacks on Iran and the perceived growing threat from Beijing to use military force to seize Taiwan by 2027. “This decision [to halt some weapons for Ukraine] was made to put America’s interests first,” Anna Kelly, deputy White House press secretary, said., adding, with potential adversaries in mind: “The strength of the United States armed forces remains unquestioned – just ask Iran.” The America First justification for the suspension of key weapons for Ukraine will have come as no surprise to America’s allies in Europe, although every attempt has been made recently to woo the US president to persuade him to maintain military support for Kyiv as part of an alliance-wide effort to stop Putin’s aggression. The wooing of Trump was epitomised by the extraordinary comment made by Mark Rutte, Nato secretary-general, when he referred to the president as the “daddy” trying to intervene between two spoilt children, a reference to the breaches of the ceasefire announced by Trump between Iran and Israel after twelve days of attacks. Europe, as well as Ukraine, depend on the good will and superpower support of the United States, and the announcement of the suspension to Kyiv of key equipment, especially the Patriots, will have rocked the alliance. The Patriot missile system has become the de riguer weapon. Everyone wants it. Ukraine is on a long list of customers and has had to compete with Israel, among others, for the fastest deliveries. The largest single Patriot engagement in US military history took place in Qatar last month when Iran launched a barrage of missiles at the US base at al-Udeid in Qatar. All were shot down. Any shortages of Patriot interceptors in the Ukrainian armoury will increase the risk of death and destruction in the country’s towns and cities, as Putin continues to launch missile strikes on civilian areas.

Trump and Putin talk Ukraine but no breakthrough

Vladimir Putin I would say is settling in for a long war in Ukraine. For the Ukrainians, it is already a long war, more than three years. But for Putin, he has a lot more he wants to do. In fact he still hopes I am sure to force the Kyiv government into capitulation. So when Donald Trump rings and they have a long chat about Ukraine and other things, the Russian leader doesn't seem remotely interested in talking about, let alone considering, agreeing to a ceasefire. Trump came away from his latest phone chat with Putin saying nothing had been achieved. At least they are still talking to each other but Putin has the upper hand. He knows Trump is desperate to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, to add to his list of "triumphs", following the B-2 bombings of Iran's nuclear plants. He gave Trump nothing. It didn't help Trump's case that the Pentagon had ordered a suspension of key weapons to Ukraine in order to build America's own stocks for a future war. That would have brought a smile to Putin's face. And when Putin smiles, you know he is feeling on top of the world, well his world, and has better cards than his friend, Trump.

Trump's unpredictability is his strongest card

Being unpredictable as the leader of the United States of America isn't necessarily a bad thing in terms of America's biggest adversaries. Keep them - ie Russia, China, Iran and North Korea - on their toes, not knowing from one day to another what Donald Trump might decide to do. But it must be intensely annoying for America's allies who, above all, want to know they can trust the US to give its backing in a security crisis. In the latest case, the US has suddenly announced it is suspending some key arms to Ukraine to make sure it has enough weaponry in its own stocks. Zelensky has been pleading for weeks that the arms from the West have to keep on being delivered or else his country's towns and cities will suffer. But the truth is, Europe as well as the US, has the same problem. So much has been handed over to Kyiv in the last three yers to help the Ukrainian military defend against Russian invasion forces that stocks everywhere will be running short. The war in Ukraine needs to come to an end to allow Europe and the US to restock. It will be in Putin's interest of course for the war to carry on. He will be pleased by the announcement from the Pentagon that deliveries of Patriot missiles, vital for air defence over Ukranian cities, is being suspended. But Trump being the unpredictable president he is, may have something up his sleeve to surprise Putin. One can only hope so.

Does Iran have any other option but surrender?

Iran retaliated massively against Israel after the first Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites last month. Many of the ballistic missiles got through and killed Israeli civilians and damaged property. So, unlike the first retaliation against Israeli raids in April when Tehran launched a fairly modest retaliatory strike and achieved very little, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this time round might feel satisfied that his military dealt a significant blow to Israel. Nevertheless, the overall result of the twelve days of war and then the intervention of Donald Trump and the B-2 Spirit bombers is that Iran has been hugely weakened, its nuclear programme has been set back potentially by years, its stockpile of ballistic missile launchers have been partially destroyed and its air defence systems have been ravaged. Iran, therefore, has nothing to show for its strike back against Israel, and as for its retaliation against the US for the B-2 bombers, no one died and every missile aimed at the American al-Udeid base in Qatar was intercepted. All the ayatollahs have got as a bargaining chip is the relative mystery of whether they have managed to hide away the 400 kilos of 60-per cent-enriched uranium and whether they have an unharmed inventory of gas centrifuges also concealed somewhere. TRhey could play on that if there are going to be negotiations between Iran the US. But, basically, Iran is in a pretty poor state to negotiate anything and if the regime refuses to cooperate, then Israel and possibly the US will return with more bombs and missiles.

Will Trump bomb again?

President Trump has already warned Tehran that he’ll be back if Iran tries to revive and advance its nuclear programme, following the strikes by B-2 stealth bombers.Judging by the comments of the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Trump may find himself with this dilemma sooner than he thinks. Iran could return to enriching uranium in “a matter of months”, according to Rafael Mariano Grossi, IAEA’s director-general, in an interview with CBS News at the weekend. However, a number of questions need to be asked before the B-2s take off again from their Whiteman Air Force base in Missouri.Trump hopes that the combination of twelve days of Israeli air raids and the one-off attack by seven B-2s each armed with 30,000lb Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) will persuade the Tehran regime to give up any ambitions of building a bomb and focus all efforts on a long-term diplomatic deal to bring the nuclear nightmare to an end. The chances are slim. The survival of the Islamic Republic under the leadership of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei largely depends on its often-stated position which is that Iran has the right to enrich uranium and it will never give that up, however many “western” bombs fall. The IAEA chief clearly believes that, despite serious damage to the three main nuclear sites, Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan, Iran still has sufficient stocks of unharmed gas centrifuges secreted away to continue the process of enriching its stock of 400 kilos of 60-percent-grade uranium, potentially to reach the 90 per cent level required for a bomb. Grossi’s assessment, unfavourably, for Trump that is, echoes the sombre report leaked from the Pentagon’s Defence Intelligence Agency soon after the B-2 bombing of the three nuclear sites which claimed the strikes had only set back Iran’s nuclear programme by a few months. There are important nuances here. There can be little doubt that the 14 MOPs dropped through ventilation shafts to reach a long way down towards the deeply buried nuclear plants caused a lot more damage than the DIA seemed to be implying. Furthermore, and crucially, the bombings did destroy (or obliterate in Trumps’ language) the metal conversion facility at Isfahan whose role was to transform enriched uranium gas into dense metal, a process known as metallization, which is one of the key last stages of forging the explosive core of a bomb. CIA director John Ratcliffe reportedly told a classified congressional hearing that the destruction of the sole metal-conversion plant would put back Iran’s suspected nuclear bomb programme by years. So, whether the 400 kilos of highly-enriched uranium Iran developed are buried under rubble at Isfahan or one of the other sites, or have been removed to an unknown bunker (depending on which report you believe), the destruction of the metal-conversion plant is a plus for Trump’s obliteration mantra; and possibly a reason for the US president to hold back the B-2s for a second go for the moment. That’s not to say he won’t be tempted to launch another bombing raid if Tehran refuses to cooperate on the offered diplomatic path. Majid Takht-Ravanchi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, told the BBC that the US would have to rule out any further strikes if diplomatic negotiations were to be resumed. Trump isn’t going to fall for that one. Trump knows that he won’t face any trouble from Congress if he decides to bomb again. Attempts by the Democrats to obligate the president to seek authority from Congress before pursuing more attacks on Iran were thwarted by the Republican-majority Senate in a 53-47 vote. The other big question of course is Israel. Mossad and the rest of the Israeli intelligence apparatus will be keeping the closest eye and ear on what Iran does next after seeing its prized nuclear facilities hammered by nearly two weeks of targeted strikes. Last week, Israel Katz, the Israeli defence minister, ordered the military to draw up an “enforcement plan” against Iran, including maintaining air superiority over the country and taking whatever steps are necessary to prevent progress in Tehran’s nuclear programme. “Operation Rising Lion [codename for the Israel Defence Forces’ twelve days of attacks] was just the preview of a new Israeli policy,” Katz wrote on X. So, Operation Rising Lion has been granted longevity. That has to mean further attacks on nuclear sites and against nuclear scientists in the future, whether Trump and the B-2s are going to be involved or not.