Saturday 28 August 2021

Biden had a mass of military strike options and chose a single drone attack!

President Biden has at his disposal a massed array of firepower already in position within striking distance of known Isis hideouts in Afghanistan when he seeks to implement his pledge to take revenge on the Kabul suicide bombers.However, many those assets, including a carrier strike group, warships and submarines armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles-, special operations forces and B-52s, are currently focused on a single mission: to ensure the safe evacuation of American nationals and allies and Afghans whose lives are at risk from the Taliban. The Pentagon has to draw up military options for Biden while at the same time attempt to complete the evacuation mission without any further loss of life. The Pentagon’s list of options for a revenge attack is therefore limited in the short term . Until the August 31 deadline for the withdrawal of US troops and equipment is reached, the forces on the ground in Kabul will need to be “laser-focused”, as the military call it, on the extraction mission and preventing another Isis attack. However, the US forces at Kabul airport include the very assets which Biden would like to turn to were he to decide to go for the riskiest military option: a helicopter-borne special operations assault team to fly to the eastern province of Nangarhar where Islamic State Khorasan Province (Isis-K) is based. These Kabul-based forces include elite troops from US Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) such as navy Seals and the army’s Delta Force, an army aviation unit called Night Stalkers equipped with specially-adapted Black Hawks and Chinooks, and a CIA paramilitary team. All of these specialist assets, plus other aircraft currently at Kabul, including more Black Hawks and Chinooks, several AH-64 Apache attack helicopters and MQ-9 Reaper drones , are supposed to be withdrawn by the August 31 deadline, along with more than 5,000 troops, counter rocket and mortar systems defending the airport and light armoured vehicles. So, as things stand, they cannot be used in any revenge attack on Isis before August 31 because they are needed for the protection of the evacuation mission and countering any further threat from Isis suicide bombers. The Apaches and Reapers, fitted with advanced thermal and optical imaging systems , are being used to monitor all movements around the airport. F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets from the carrier, USS Ronald Reagan, off the Pakistan coast, are also flying over Kabul with surveillance systems. However, the Pentagon will include a ground-based assault mission as one of the military options post-August 31, either from Kabul but that would require an arrangement with the Taliban, or from the Gulf. In addition to counter-terrorist special operations forces on permanent standby in the Gulf region, the Pentagon could also turn to the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), part of the US amphibious ready group (ARG) based around the Wasp class assault ship USS Iwo Jima. The ARG has AV-8B Harrier jump-jets. Many of the Marines from 24th MEU are now serving at Kabul airport but after August 31 will have returned to their ships. Any ground commando-style assault would be dependent on intelligence to help pinpoint Isis positions in Nangarhar. The vast network of US military and CIA intelligence-gathering systems on the ground, however, including classified computer data bases, have been or are in the process of being removed from Afghanistan to meet the Biden deadline. The Pentagon still has, however, surveillance aircraft based in the Gulf which with air-refuelling can keep a constant watch over eastern Afghanistan prior to any assault. This includes a US Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft currently based at al-Udeid airbase in Qatar and flying missions over Kabul. The Rivet Joint, built by Boeing, can intercept and monitor communications across a wide area, and will even now be attempting to pinpoint electronic exchanges between Isis fighters. The other Pentagon options would involve less risky missions and are likely to head up the list of alternatives for Biden. All would involve precision-guided bombing. *The Tomahawk option: The USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group is currently off the Makran coast, a coastal region of Baluchistan in south west Pakistan. The strike force includes three warships equipped with Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles: USS Shiloh, a guided-missile cruiser, USS Halsey, a guided-missile destroyer, each of which can carry 154 land-attack Tomahawks, and USS Georgia, an Ohio-class nuclear-powered submarine. *The bombing option: B-52H Stratofortress bombers, F-15 Strike Eagles, F-22 Raptor stealth bombers and armed Reaper drones are all available at the al-Udeid base in Qatar, along with a large number of KC-135 refuelling tankers. All these aircraft have been used in the 20-year war with the Taliban and also against al-Qaeda and Isis in Afghanistan. USS Ronald Reagan, normally based in Japan but moved to the Gulf region for the evacuation operation, has 90 fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters on board. The F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets could be used in a support, surveillance or ground-attack role for the bombing option. Since Biden announced the troop-withdrawal programme in April, the Pentagon has been working on developing an “over-the-horizon” capability in the Gulf to be able to launch attacks on al-Qaeda or Isis or other terrorist groups in Afghanistan without any ground back-up, including forward air controllers, left in the country. Top US commanders have warned that a capability based 1,000 miles away would pose a challenge for any future operations in or over Afghanistan. With the added distance and the need for air-refuelling, such operations would take longer and cost more. However, if Biden is intent on pursuing those responsible for the Kabul airport terrorist atrocity, the Pentagon will have a full range of contingencies available to meet his promise to exact revenge. The key will be the intelligence available to uncover which Isis unit was responsible. “If we can find who is associated with this [attack], we will go after them,” General Frank McKenzie, commander of US Central Command, said. “We’ve been clear all along that we’re going to retain the input to operate against Isis in Afghanistan and we’re working hard to determine attribution [for the attack]. 24/7 we’re looking for them,” he said.

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