Wednesday, 27 December 2017

Flynn to be thrown to the wolves

The Trump team is planning to get ugly with Mike Flynn. Well that was inevitable, no surprise there at all. According to a breaking story in The Washington Post, the White House is preparing the ground to cast Flynn into the wilderness by announcing to the world that whatever he is claiming in his chats with Robert Mueller, the special counsel, are lies lies lies. I could have predicted that, in fact I'm pretty sure I did predict that in some past blog. Flynn, retired lieutenant-general and former very short-lived national security adviser, has been talking to Mueller in return for pleading guilty to lying to the FBI in order to ensure a lighter sentence. So, according to the news, if Flynn so much as dares to accuse Trump or Trump accolytes of wrongdoing re Russia/Moscow/Putin/collusion, the White House will say his accusations are totally false and that he is only making such claims to save his skin. It's an easy argument. A lot of people might well think that Flynn would say anything to avoid a prison sentence. But Mueller is no fool. He was trained, was he not, to tell the difference between a liar and a truth-teller? If Flynn starts spinning a yarn about late-night meetings with Russians behind White House hedges, will Mueller think to himself, "Ah ha, now I've got him". Or will he think, "Come on Flynn, you've got to do better than that." Flynn is a trained military intelligence operative and it's unlikely he will risk the rest of his life by lying to Mueller. He lied to the FBI and look where that got him. So the chances are, if he has any evidence of deliberate collusion with the Russians to help Trump win the presidential election, he will spill the beans, or has already spilled the beans, to Mueller. Trump and his team know what Flynn knows. What they don't know is what Flynn has told Mueller. That's why they are now, apparently, coming up with Plan B, C and D, which is to rubbish Flynn as a sort of paranoid lying toad to try and put Mueller off his game. Mueller, on the other hand, now probably knows what Flynn knows but he is not absolutely certain in hs mind whether what Flynn has revealed is 100 per cent fact or just a series of impressions and recollections. For that reason, Mueller will have to corroborate everything Flynn has said. And to do that, he will have to persuade another big player to come forward and cooperate. He can't count on Jared Kushner, even though he probably knows more than most about the Russia Thing, because he is married to Trump's daughter. He's not going to throw that away. So my guess is Mueller now feels he has the beginnings of a conspiracy but not enough evidence to back it up unless he can find at least one more, and probably two or three more Trumpites or former Trumpites to provide corroboration. I doubt that is going to happen. So Mueller is heading for frustration, or to put it more bluntly, a brick wall.

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