Wednesday, 11 March 2026
Unfortunately for Trump, the enemy (Iran) has a vote, too
Donald Trump has changed his mind a few times about how long the war against Iran will go on. First it was four or five weeks, then he thought the strikes were nearly completed, and now he is warning there is still stuff to do. But the bigger question is, not what the US will do in the next week or so, but what Iran will do. Iran may have lost a chunk of its top leadership but the second layer of leaders, from the new supreme leader downwards, are settling in and clearly the decision has been taken to fight and fight and use the one card they have which might make a difference to Trump's timetable: keeping the Strait of Hormuz shut for all shipping and attacking oil tankers sitting the other end of the Gulf waterway, stuck in limbo. The US military may have successfully targeted 19 or so Iranian navy warships. But Iran has the capacity to stop the flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz just by threatening to attack ships, because as a result international insurers have declined to indemnify shipping companies. No insurance, no tanker movements. Trump has warned Iran not to lay mines in the Strait but it's pretty likely that is what they will try to do. A massive blockage in the waterway where huge numbers of ships pass through every month will have a long-term impact on the world ecnomy. This is the threat posed by Iran and there is no way Trump can declare victory over Tehran until the Hormuz question has been resolved.
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