No Ukraine war breakthrough in Abu Dhabi

It was a week of realpolitik Trump-style. Greenland sorted (kind of), Gaza, peace-boarded, Venezuela already in the bag, and then it was the turn of Ukraine and Russia. The whirlwind of tough-talking diplomacy had switched from Davos to Moscow to Abu Dhabi. Donald Trump might be back in the US but his special envoys, armed with the president’s formula for ending the war in Ukraine, were under orders to get a deal fixed to stop the killing and destruction as soon as possible.As the envoys from the US, Russia and Ukraine opened the talks on Friday evening in the capital of the United Arab Emirates, none of the pre-signalling indicated that a breakthrough was in the offing, although two days hde been allotted for the meetings, in the expectation that it wouldn't just be a round-robin of all the same familiar arguments. After the first trilateral talks since the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, ended on the first day, the chief negotiator from Kyiv sounded relatively satisfied with the progress. Rustem Umerov, formerly the minister of defence, said the first session had focused “on the parameters for ending Russia’s war”. The aim of the talks, he said, was to progress towards “a dignified and lasting peace”. The diplomatic language didn’t fool President Zelensky who said it was too early to draw any conclusions. “The key is that Russia must be ready to end the war it started,” he said in a statement in Kyiv. Despite the cautious reactions, there was one new ingredient, and, as a result, the timing of the trilateral session could not have been more apposite. The announcement that Vladimir Putin had been invited to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza ws surely a subtle – not a word normally associated with the US president – hint to the Russian leader that the invitation to involve him as a chosen head of state should come with a quid pro quo: compromise over Ukraine and stop the war. Until now, Putin has shown absolutely no inclination to consider moving one inch from his territoriaL demands. He wants the whole of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine or there will be no ceasefire and no peace settlement. However, if this remains his position, Trump’s arm-twisting approach to diplomacy will suffer a serious setback. Abu Dhabi was not supposed to be just about “frank and useful” talking. Trump wanted it to be the start of proper deal-making. The presence of 64-year-old Admiral Igor Kostyukov, director of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian General Staff, (otherwise known as the GRU, responsible for some of the most outrageous assassination and sabotage operations overseas) woas ominous. However, the Trump factor at the talks was now more important than ever after the American president’s further attempt – in Davos - to bring Putin back into the international family of nations. Was Putin prepared for a quid pro quo? Steve Whitkoff, the all-action billionaire business friend of Trump’s, and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, spent hours on Thursday evening talking with Putin after flying to Moscow from Davos. Before he left Davos, Whitkoff commented: “We are at the end now.” Before then flying to Abu Dhabi, he sounded optimistic, summing up what was left to negotiate: “I think we’ve got it down to one issue, and we have discussed iterations of that issue, and that means it’s solvable.” The one issue, of course, is land. There is no obvious solution. Whitkoff’s use of the word “iteration” underlined the multiple attempts that have been made to find a territorial formula for the Donbas region which will satisfy both Putin and Zelensky. On the face of it, there is no possible solution when Putin wants the whole region to become Russian sovereignty, and Zelensky is desperate to hang onto the twelve per cent of Donbas still under the control of Ukrainian forces. Russia occupies almost all of Luhansk, one of two provinces in the region, and about three-quarters of Donetsk. In terms of real estate, Ukraine still controls and defends about 2,550 square miles of land in Donbas, including crucial stronghold, well-defended towns. The only solution to the land issue that has made sense is the idea that both parties would retreat from Donbas and turn the region into a demilitarised zone and convert it into a free economic area. It’s part of Trump’s revised 20-point plan for Ukraine. However, until now, Putin has stuck to his unmovable red line. He says Donbas must be handed to Russia, and he has rejected any thought of ordering his soldiers to withdraw from occupied territory, especially since his forces have made small but significant gains in recent months. As a consequence, Putin has more leverage than Zelensky. Which is why Putin’s negotiator in Abu Dhabi, the man from the GRU, arrived with no remit to offer Zelensky a white dove of peace. Sure enough, aftert the second day of talks, the only message that came out was "No breakthrough." PLEASE BUY AGENT REDRUTH, MY NEW SPY THRILLER, SEQUEL TO SHADOW LIVES, BOTH STARRING THE AWESOME REBECCA STRONG. AMAZON, ROWANVALE BOOKS AND WATERSTONES.