What might happen in 2026

At some point in 2026 President Vladimir Putin is going to win in Ukraine. The war will carry on throughout the winter months but then out of desperation, the fourth version of the Trump peace settlement package will be agreed by both sides. Zelensky will be forced to agree to hand over the whole of Donbas which is what Putin wants. Zelensky will then hold an election and he will lose. He will be succeeded by a tough military commander and Ukraine will be given a date, five years away, to join the European Union. No European troops will be allowed by Moscow to keep the peace in Ukraine. Europe will feel totally let down by Washington and the Trans-Atlantic alliance will be more fragile than ever. The second phase of the Gaza peace settlement will go ahead but so slowly as to make no difference for the Palestinian people. Hamas will refuse to disarm totally, apart from a handful of AK47s and grenade-launchers, but a fragile peace is maintained. Trump restrains Netanyahu from going full-scale back into central and northern Gaza to try and finish off Hamas. Reconstruction begins but then halts after renewed clashes between Hamas and Israel. The peace deal will look tenuous throughout the year. Elsewhere in the world, China will launch half a dozen dress rehearsals for invading Taiwan, and North Korea will set off a nuclear test explosion over the Japanese Sea. The US econonmy will boom as Trump's tarriff campaign finally works and US businesses become more and more independent and less-reliant on imports. The French government will collapse, twice, and in the UK Keir Starmer will be ousted after devastating local elections in May. Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, will succeed him. But the small-boats immigration crisis will continue and the NHS will be hit by a series of crises. Very little good news expected.