Does Netanyahu really want Trump's peace plan for Gaza?

Benjamin Netanyahu shook Donald Trump's hand and smiled as the president announced his new 20-point peace plan for Gaza. So, everything was looking good! But no, not really. Netanyahu had to agree to the deal but he knows that it will never get past his most extreme conservative cabinet members who want Gaza to become an extension to the West Bank for Jewish settlers. Nor will Hamas leap at it because they will demand that all Israeli troops are withdrawn from Gaza and Netanyahu is never gong to agree to that. So, lots of optimistic welcome from around the world to the Trump deal but are they all really fooling themselves? This latest deal is an agglomeration of all the previous deals and since every one failed to bring the war to an end, it is pretty short odds that this 20-pointer will also go the same way. Or if it does work, eventually, it will be a long way off. Netanyahu is against a two-state solution, ie an indpendent state for Palestinians, but the Trump proposal hints at it, in order to keep the Arab nations happy. But there is nothing in the package that says it will definitely happen or how it will happen. One thing that does seem to have been dropped is Trump's idea of turning Gaza into a Middle East Riviera, with all the Palestinians told to leave and live somewhere else. That means the Palestinian inhabitants of what's left of Gaza will be allowed to stay, as the massive reconstruction programme gets underway. If this deal goes ahead, Netanyahu will not survive as Israeli leader.

Why is Trump so optimistic about a Gaza deal?

Everyone is talking about a peace settlement for Gaza but on the ground there is absolutely no evidence that either Israel or Hamas are ready to sign anything. Trump tells us that a lot of talking is going on behind the scenes between Israel, the US, Arab countries and Hamas to find the formula that has so far failed to materialise in nearly two years of war. JD Vance has joined those suggesting a deal might be in the offing but he wisely admits something could always go wrong at the last minute. Like Hamas saying no or Israel deciding to carry on until every single member of Hamas has been killed. No one for sure knows how many Hamas fighters have been killed but it must be close to 18,000 or perhaps even more. But that still means they have another 5,000-10,000 holding on to the remaining hostages and launching sporadic raids on Israel Defence Forces troops. Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be satisfied if that number of combatants are still free to attack Israel? I very much doubt it. So whatever deal is currently being discussed, the chances of it working out are slim at best. As for post-war Gaza, there are now so many ideas, none of which will inspire the Palestinians who want their own government and their own independence. One of the proposals is for Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, to run a temporary administration when the war finally stops. Blair is a class act and has been involved in Middle East peacemaking efforts for a long time. But I cannot imagine the Palestinian people in Gaza will settle for a Brit to run their lives. So, I fear the war is still a long way from ending.

Hundreds of generals and admirals ordered to attend Pentagon show

At this moment about 800 generals and admirals in the US military are preparing to leave their commands around the world and fly to Washington to attend a non-voluntary meeting on Tuesday with Donald Trump, their commander-in-chief, and the defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, for what appears to be a planned rebranding tour-de-force. The cost of getting all these top-flight commanders to leave their posts and come to Washington has not been quantified but it will run into tens of thousands of dollars and probably hundreds of thousands of dollars. And for what? So that Hegseth and Trump can urge them all to plan more directly for war in the future and to get them to warn all their soldiers, marines, airmen/women and sailors to see themselves as warriors. It's not a new concept but clearly Hegseth, a former Fox News presenter, feels the military needs a kick up the backside to prepare themselves for whatever wars may turn up in the futue, whether it be against China, Russia, Iran or Venezuela. In between the lecturing from Trump and Hegseth at the gathering at Quantico in Virginia, it's going to be a helluva gossip occasion for all the three- and four-star men and women who will no doubt seize the opportunity to chat about what Trump really wants and what it might mean for their careers. There must be a degree of trepidation within the top ranks.

Will the small-boat arrivals ever stop?

The defining image of this decade for Britain will be the arrival across the English Channel of dozens of people packed into a small boat, hoping to come and live in this country. It happens every week, and in some weeks happens every day, and nothing, NOTHING the government says or does makes any difference. The boats still keep coming, sometimes, safely, if that's the right word, and sometimes disastrously with some of the boat passengers falling into the sea and drowning, often women and children. Everything the previous Conservative government and the present Labour government have tried to do to stop this nightmare has totally, utterly failed. Some of the so-called policies have been gimmicks, others have been morally repugnant. But still the boats come. Donald Trump said the British government should use the military. But no government is going to do that, first because it would look terrible around the world and secondly, the Royal Navy just isn't bigh enough to spend its time patrolling the English Channel. The current one-out and one-in idea, in which one illegal, undocumented migrant is flown out and one approved, documented migrant is allowed in, might work over time but it will take decades for it to make any difference. So, the idea is pretty crass. The "send 'em all to Rwanda" scheme proposed by the previous government was morally unpleasant and an unbelievable waste of taxpayers' money because no one actually went to Rwanda, and then Labour scrapped it anyway. Is there anyone anywhere who has a practical idea for stopping the small boats. If so, come forward, because the Labour government certainly doesn't.

Trump's revenge against his personal enemies

James Comey, former FBI director, is the first but certainly not the last. Donald Trump always said he would take revenge against the people he believed inspired against him during his four years in office and now he has started. James Comey didn't stand a chance because he was the one who was in charge of the investigation into whether Trump was secretly aligned with Moscow to get elected in 2016, and then wrote a book attacking Trump. The evidence against him, in terms of a real criminal offence, would appear to be flimsy at best. The grand jury returned an indictment against Comey after a lawyer appointed by Trump only days ealier was part of the prosecution team and then turned out to be the one voice supporting the indictment. The other prosecutors said there wasn't enough evidence to convict. It's all a bit disturbing. Comey's mistake was to make a point of digging himself in vis a vis Trump by publicly criticising him. Had he been a bit wiser he would have gone into retirement quietly. But I guess he thought there was no chance of Trump being reelected, seeing as how he was facing so many criminal charges himself. But, then, he didn't predict Joe Biden deteriorating in health and resigning three months before election day. Kamala Harris was on a hiding to nothing and when Trump won easily, Comey was on a countdown to an indictment.

Are we closer to war with Russia?

The friendly relationship between President Trump and President Putin now seems finally to be over. It has been eight months of drama, disappointment and frustration. Last week, Trump gave his authority for Nato to shoot down Russian drones and fighter jets if they flew into alliance members’ air space which provoked an angry response from Moscow. The Russian ambassador to France, Alexey Meshkov, told a press conference that if a Russian aircraft was shot down it would lead to war.The warning came after Russian drones and fighter jets crossed into Poland, Romania and Estonia. Multiple drones also entered Danish airspace and the government of Copenhagen said it suspected they were Russian. These alarming developments underlined how relations have deteriorated between Washington and Moscow. The second Trump administration had begun with a real sense of optimism that the president would be able to use his influence to persuade Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine and to stop violating Nato airspace and launching cyber attacks on the US and Europe. The meeting between Trump and Putin at a military base outside Anchorage in Alaska was supposed to kick-start a new era, with productive relations between Washington and Moscow. The opposite has happened., culminating with the war warning from the Russian ambassador to France. How could it all have gone so wrong? Trump now says that Putin has let him down. But it seems clear that the Russian leader was never going to negotiate peace in Ukraine, unless it was strictly on his own terms, none of which was going to be acceptable to Kyiv. Following Trump’s dramatic change of mind about Ukraine last week, declaring that, given the right support, the Ukrainian military could seize back all the territory occupied by Russian troops, there would seem to be no prospect of a negotiated settlement to end the war. Trump effectively advised Ukraine to fight on and not seek peace. It may, of course, have been a cunning plan by the president to goad Putin into seeking a diplomatic settlement. But the Russian president has shown no sign of considering any sort of compromise. Moreover, after the deliberate incursions by Russian drones and fighter aircraft across Nato borders, Putin seems more determined than ever to provoke the alliance. Can Trump revive his friendship with Putin before the situation becomes even more dangerous, or is it now inevitable, as some military commentators have suggested, that Nato and Russia will become involved in direct conflict? This is such an alarming prospect that Trump is probably the only leader in the world who can contact Putin directly and bring him to his senses. So far, all of the president’s efforts have failed to change Putin’s aggressive tactics. But if something is not done soon to stop the bellicose rhetoric, there could be a serious miscalculation that might lead to a dangerous confrontation between Russia and the West. It is time for another summit between Trump and Putin before it’s all too late.

Trump tells Ukraine to fight on!

Donald Trump’s about-turn on Ukraine is so spectacular his personal social media platform, Truth Social, should be renamed Home Truths. It appears the US president has been doing some homework on the state of the Russian economy and how more than three years of war have impacted on the country’s financial stability and future growth potential, or lack of it. Much has been written about Russia’s war economy, painting the picture that the military/industrial infrastructure is in such a booming state that tanks are coming off the production line like vodka in a bottling factory. The truth, as Trump is discovering, is that the war in Ukraine has driven holes in Russia’s finances; and made vulnerable any prospect of a straightforward return to a civilian economy once the war is over. Putin is in deep trouble. He can keep the war going for another few years, but then what? If he still fails to defeat Ukraine or force Kyiv to surrender on his terms, Russia will not just be a “paper tiger”, as Trump wrote in his Truth Social post, but will be an empire without clothes. It has taken Trump a long time to come round to the view repeated endlessly by European leaders, that provided military and economic support for Kyiv is maintained, Putin at some stage will be forced to call it quits, and that if that backing is not guaranteed, the Russian president will continue to believe that aggression pays. The recent launching of Russian drones into Poland, Romania and over Copenhagen airport (suspected), and the flight of three MiG-31 fighter jets into Estonian airspace have shown that right now Putin thinks he’s a winner and can get away with pretty much anything. Trump has seen the light here, too, by confirming that Nato should shoot them down. Trump’s lengthy Truth Social post on Ukraine came after a meeting in New York with Volodymyr Zelensky who expressed surprise at the change in tone and message. However, even for Zelensky, Trump’s prediction that Ukraine could not only defeat the Russian invasion troops but also regain all the territory it has lost may have seemed over-optimistic.This is what Trump wrote: “After getting to know and fully understand the Ukraine/Russia Military and Economic situation and, after seeing the Economic trouble it is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.” Later on in the post, he wrote:“Ukraine would be able to take back their Country in its original form and, who knows, maybe even go further than that! Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act.” Quite what he meant by going further than just recovering Ukraine’s sovereign territory is unclear, but perhaps he was thinking of Crimea which was annexed by Putin without a fight in 2014.Trump relies on advice not just from his appointed officials but also from people he trusts outside government. His apparent U-turn may have materialised after consulting with experts in his private contacts list. Certainly, his revised view doesn’t gel with the opinion of Marco Rubio, his secretary of state and acting national security adviser, who made it clear that the war in Ukraine would end with a diplomatic, not a military solution. This view is largely held by the top military commanders in the US. Three years of war have demonstrated a number of truths: Russia has failed to prove it has the military capability to crush its neighbour despite massive superiority (thus, Trump’s paper tiger analogy), and Ukraine has demonstrated a fighting spirit and an ingenious exploitation of home-grown technology to thwart Russian forces and save the country from Moscow’s subjugation. Western support with advanced weaponry has also, of course, been crucial in the earlier stages of the war. But modern western tanks, for example, many of which have been destroyed in battle, play less of a role now that drones have taken over as the weapon of choice to keep the Russians back. Trump appears to have accepted these realities and has now, effectively, given his backing for Kyiv to fight on but only in the context of Europe taking the brunt of the financial responsibility for aiding Zelensky and his military commanders. This follows Trump’s decision to sell American weapons to Europe which then passes them onto Ukraine, a clever business arrangement if ever there was one. So, it’s Europe from now on , but with Trump waving the Ukrainian flag in the background. How Putin reacts to this remarkable change in Trump’s position will be illuminating. All the indications up to this moment were that Putin was prepared to continue the conflict ad infinitum, relying on his war economy to try and seize more Ukrainian territory – so far, around 19 per cent, including Crimea. However, military expenditure is now absorbing up to eight per cent of Russia’s GDP. That cannot be sustained without having an increasingly damaging impact on the rest of the economy. With the likelihood of even more savage sanctions imposed on Moscow in the future, Putin could be forced to reassess his war prospects in Ukraine to save Russia from economic disaster. That’s Trump’s Home Truths message.

Trump should warn off Putin

Instead of complaining that Putin has let him down, Donald Trump, as leader of the western alliance, should give the Russian president the strongest warning: stop sending drones and fighter aircraft into Nato member nations or they will get shot down. Putin is just enjoying himself at the moment, with drones crossing into Poland and Romania, fighter aircraft into Estonia, and now drones over Copenhagen airport, stopping all flights. It is not yet absolutely certain that Russia is behind the Copenhagen incident, but it smacks of Putinesque tactics. He is going to continue playing these dangerous gamns with Nato until the alliance reacts with a military response. Then and only then will he back off. While Nato dithers and Trump shows no interest Putin will feel he has been given carte blnache to do what he likes to stir up trouble in the western alliance. How many more drones or fghter aircraft have to be flown into alliance airspace before someone with guts just shoots them down. This is why Trump has to deliver a warning message, an ultimatum to Putin. But at the United Nations General Assembly, Trump spent most of his address railing against Europe for failing to stop illegal immigration. This address should have been the right moment to send out his warning to Putin. The whole alliance would have applauded.

Hamas public executions as Starmer recognises Palestine

The appalling video of Hamas executing three suspected Israeli collaborators in public in Gaza shows how Keir Starmer's decision to recognise Palestine as a state is so fraught with paradoxes, contradictions and political risks. Of course the Palestinian people deserve their own nation with safe and respected borders and a proper future for their own unique sovereignty. But right now one of the key elements of a would-be state is still run by Hamas, designated a terrorist organisation by the US and the UK. If Hamas continues to rule Gaza, despite being targeted and attacked by Israel ever since the slaughter of Israeli and other national citizens on October 7, 2023, there can be no consideration of a Palestinian state. So, the only sensible policy for all governments contemplating doing what Starmer and others have done is to wait until Hamas has been removed as the ruling body of Gaza. It makes no sense to recognise a Palestinian state now when Hamas is brutally executing people in public and refusing to hand over the remaining hostages. It's not just premature, it's nonsensical. The Palestinian people should be given hope for a better future but this will never come while Hamas controls them. Let the two-state model for Palestine and Israel to live alongside each other remain as the strategic goal. But recognising Palestine now is a gift to Hamas and will prolong the war between Hamas and Israel.

Trump wants Bagram back (plus of course Greenland, Panama Canal...)

Donald Trumo has set his sights on getting the huge ex-US airbase at Bagram in Afghanistan back under American military control. Good luck with that. The Taleban has immediately said he can't have it which should be the end of it. But Trump remembers that the top military command in the US, prior to the embarrassing and humiliating withdrawal of all troops in August 2021, advised the then president Joe Biden to hang on to Bagram and leave 2.500 troops in place as a permanent force, not just to keep watch over the potential resurgence of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan but also as a strategic post vis a vis China. Biden said no. He wanted everyone out and quickly. It was a huge mistake, and now Trump wants to reverse that decision by seizing cntrol of Bagram for the future. I fear it's too late and too impractical. It would lead to another war with the Taleban and I doubt Trump wants that, since he is against all wars involving American troops. Also, he negotiated the deal with the Taleban for the US troop withdrawal. There was nothing in the small print about keeping Bagram. Meanwhile, Bagram which vovers a vast area is largely empty and wasting away. The US took everything out that they wanted and the base is pretty much a white elephant, with a few Taleban around to keep some sort of security watch. The problem with hanging on to Bagram - when Biden considered it - was the huge cost of maintaining the base and the vulnerability of the troops stationed there. The same will be the case if Trump contemplates taking Bagram back by force. It's probably just wishful thinking on Trump's part. Just like his declared desire to have both Greenland and the Panama Canal under US ownership.

Nato has to get tough with audacious Russian infringements

The latest evidence of increasing Russian aggression-tactics against Nato countries came with the infringement of Estonian airspace by three MiG-31 fighter aircraft. They spent twelve minutes over Estonia and then withdrew. At some point, instead of complaining after the event, Nato should stand up to Putin and warn him that if this type of airspace violation is repeated, his fighter jets will be shot down. He would do the same if a Nato fighter jet flew into Russian airspace. Putin is getting away with everything he tries, whether it be drones hurtling into Poland and Romania or troop build-ups close to the border with Finland. Finland, one of the newest members of Nato, is facing daily threats. Putin would love to punish Finland for joining Nato - after the Russian invasion of Ukraine - and just might launch some border incursion to test out Finnish defences. Why isn't Nato doing more to stamp on this deliberate aggression? The reason is, the alliance is desperately anxious not to make things worse by over-reacting. Shooting down a Russian fighter jet would be seen by the Kremlin as an outright attack on Russia. But so what? It would teach Moscow a lesson and perhaps force Putin to back off in future. Nobody wants a war between Nato and Russia. Putin certainly doesn't. But if he keeps on taunting the alliance and the alliance does nothing in return, he will see this as weakness and just carry on regardlesss.

US/UK special relationship is alive and well

The special relationship between the US and Britain is often derided in this new world order we are facing. But it remains one of the strongest bonds on the world stage, whoever is in charge in either Washington or London. This was proven and underlined during Donald Trump's State visit to Britain. Both Trump and King Charles spoke warmly of each other and each other's countries during the state banquet at Windsor Castle. The banquet was a powerhouse of rich businessmen. Not a pop star or Hollywood actor in sight. It was all high-tech big bosses and people of influence. Who sat next to whom was a masterpiece in dinner table strategy. Above all, it showed that despite some big differences between London and Washington on key areas such as climate-change, Ukraine/Russia and Gaza, there is an untouchable affection that cannot be destroyed or undermined. That alone might make Trump return to Washington with new ideas in his head about how to deal with the likes of Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu. But the soft words of King Charles in his ear over dinner are unlikely to persuade Trump to totally change his current strategy towards Russia/Ukraine and Israel. The terrible wars will continue.

Trump's gilded carriage welcome at Windsor

Donald Trump has the unusual privilege of travelling in one of the royal family's gilded carriages but only inside the environs of Windsor Castle, not out in the town, let alone along The Mall leading to Buckingham Palace. So this is a State visit but it's more like a mini-State visit, with carefully contained pageantry. Hundreds of police and fancily-dressed military kept a careful guard, so how on earth protesters managed to flash a picture of Trump and Jeffery Epstein onto the walls of Windsor Castle beggars belief. Where were the police then? An extraordinary cock-up which went viral around the world. Trump says he loves the royal family and looks upon King Charles as a friend, so one wonders whether the monarch might whisper to him that his reversal of President Joe Biden's huge climate-change bill could be seriously dangerous for the future of the world. Charles has always worried about the planet and humankind's abuse of its treasures. But I fear Trump won't be in a mood to listen. He came to the White House for his second term promising to drill, drill,,drill for oil and there seems absolutely no chance he will change his mind. Charles is probably the best diplomat in the country and will do his best but Trump has made up his mind that oil and gas are the way ahead, none of this expensive namby pamby alternative energy resources stuff!

Trump trapped by Putin's schemes

It all began with such promise. Donald Trump would sweep away all the failures of past administrations and sit astride the globe like a Nobel Prize winner in-the-making and solve the world’s seemingly unresolvable security challenges. To be fair, it has only been eight months since he began his second term in the White House. But it is a fact that Trump has struggled to bring the force of his personality and chutzpah to bear in trying to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as he pledged he would in short shrift during his presidential campaign. His return to the White House was supposed to be the start of a Trump era on the world stage, a period in which dramatic diplomatic breakthroughs would cement his legacy as a peacemaker. America’s adversaries would be forced to make deals or suffer the consequences. Increasingly, however, it is becoming a Putin era. The Russian leader faced world condemnation for his invasion of Ukraine, and yet three years and seven months later, he and the war economy he has built despite international sanctions have not just survived but have flourished. Putin, not Trump, has turned out to be the master playmaker and game changer. As Trump and First Lady Melania arrive in the UK for an unprecedented second state visit, the president has little to boast about when it comes to Ukraine or Gaza. Both Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu have largely ignored his entreaties and interventions, despite a plethora of meetings, phone calls, public pronouncements and hints from Trump that at any moment there would be a ceasefire or an end to the wars. There was no greater expectation of a breakthrough on Ukraine than when Trump and Putin met at the American military base outside Anchorage in Alaska. Most analysts thought it was at least a positive move that Putin had asked for the summit. However, on reflection, above all, Putin wanted to be back on the world stage – especially with the international war crimes warrant for his arrest still hanging over him - and he calculated that if he offered to meet Trump, the US president wouldn’t be able to resist the glamour of such an occasion, and it would be greeted as a signal of his (Putin’s) readiness to negotiate with his old friend. The result, however, after the red carpet welcome, was that Putin returned to Moscow, having made it impossible for Trump to impose the heavy sanctions he had threatened if the Alaska summit failed to bring peace in Ukraine, and then proceeded to launch a series of unprecedently large-scale drone and missile attack, including, for the first time, strikes on government buildings in Kyiv. Those promised sanctions against Russia have still not materialised, more than a month later, and now Trump is hedging his bets and saying he will only take this action when Nato stops buying Russia’s cheap oil. Turkey, a prominent alliance member, is the third largest buyer of Russian oil after China and India. Hungary and Slovakia also continue to import Russian oil and gas. For Putin who relies on exports of Russian energy to fund his war machine, Trump’s hesitation to use the big stick against him will be seen not just as a sign of weakness but as perfect evidence of the Russian leader’s cunning strategy to pretend to woo the US president while patently carrying on regardless with his objective of smashing Ukraine into oblivion. The same disregard for Trump’s leadership is evident in the way Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu has played along with the constant back-and-forth diplomatic visits, paying court to the American president’s envoys – Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, is the latest to arrive in Israel. But while he talks, Israel Defence Forces are pounding Gaza City, demolishing tower blocks and warning its 1.3 million residents to leave. Rubio is in Jerusalem principally to get across the White House’s disapproval of Israel’s bombing of Hamas political-hierarchy targets in Qatar on 9 September. The bombing, carried out without consultation with Washington, has landed Trump and Rubio with an excrutiatingly tricky dilemma because of the vital strategic alliance the US shares with Qatar. The Gulf state hosts about 10,000 US troops at al Udeid airbase, home of US Central Command’s forward operating missions for the whole of the Middle East. Both Trump and Rubio appear to be tiptoeing around the challenge that Netanyahu continues to pose, even though they have the power and the leverage to stamp their feet and demand change. However, Washington is backing off from confrontation. The beneficiaries are Putin and Netanyahu. Meanwhile, Putin is testing Trump and Nato to the limit by sending drones into Poland and also Romania. Alliance leaders have reacted with horror and come up with a belated strategy to build up air defences along the border with Russia on Nato’s eastern flank. But the truth is, Putin will get away with this infringement of Polish and Romanian sovereignty like he always does because Nato won't want to escalate the situation too much. Next time Putin will double the number of drones and then a cruise missile or two, and watch Nato’s response. But still he will be the one to laugh. This is Putin's time and unless Washington does something pretty drastic, it will remain Putin's time throughout Trump's second administration. BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH, SEQUEL TO SHADOW LIVES, ORDER FROM AMAZON, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Donald Trump's unprecedented SECOND State Visit to UK

The fact that Donald Trump is being granted a second State Visit to the UK - the first one was in June 2019 - says everything about the way the Labour government under Sir Keir Starmer is desperate to keep the unpredictable American president on side for the next three and a half years of his second term in office. Trump loves the British royal family and will ooze charm when he arrives with First Lady Melania tomorrow evening for a two-day event. Starmer will also be obsequiously attendant to Trump because that is how he believes he can keep the president happy. One wrong move or one wrong comment and there could be trouble. But Starmer will have learnt his lines very carefully. Quite what Trump will think when he sees all the protesters waving their banners at him we will have to see. But he won't appreciate it, and Starmer will be anxious to keep the protesters as far away as possible which probably means the police have been ordered to tuck them away down side streets. There will be no repeat of the staggering arrival of 110,000 far right demonstrators who filled the streets in central London at the weekend. The police will see to that. But during the two-day State Visit, everyone in the government and law enforcement is going to be terrified about the possibiity of something going wrong. All the other US presidents who won two terms in office were invited to tea with the Queen at Windsor Castle durng their second term, no state visit. But Trump is being given very special treatment because of Starmer's paranoia about displeasing the president. There will be no repetition of the Hugh Grant speech in Love Actually when the actor playing the British prime minister turned on the visiting American president and said America was not a friend if all it did was demand what it wanted from a relationship. Grant went on to praise Britain's greatness. Today Britain's greatness is under greater threat than ever.

Trump and Rubio are tiptoeing when they should be stamping feet

Why are Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, his secretary of state, tiptoing around the two biggest diplomatic crises when they have the power and leverage to stamp their feet and demand change? Trump still hasn't imposed the severe sanctions he promised to consider against Putin and Russia for continuing to smash Ukraine to bits, and Rubio is in Israel saying he doesn't like the Israeli bombing of Hamas in Qatar but nothing has changed the relationship between Tel Aviv and Washington. So all nice and friendly and indecisive. Trump is now linking the possibility of imposing new sanctions against Russia to Europe stopping buying oil from Moscow. Europe has cut back significantly but still buys some oil from Russia because they have failed to find affordable alternatives to meet demand. So, Trump's announcement is fair enough. Why sanction Russia when there is this big loophole for Putin? However, if Trump just came out with it and declared new massive sanctions, it would force Europe and India and China and others who still buying Russian oil to take drastic steps to look elsewhere for energy supplies. Then Putin really would be in trouble. But right now he can rely on India (despite 50 per cent tariffs by Trump) and China and North Korea and some European countries to keep his war machine going. Meanwhile, Rubio clearly has no authority from his boss to punish Israel for striking at Hamas offices in Doha in Qatar which killed half a dozen people but none of the Hamas hierarchy, or so the designated terrorist organisation claims. Will he ask Netanyahu not to do it again? Even if he does, Netanyahu will shrug his shoudrs. When it comes to Israel's security, he will do anything and everything to stop his country's enemies. So any entreaties from Rubio will fall on stony ground. Washington is supposed to be all-powerful but right now those with the power are backing off. The beneficiaries are Putin and Netanyahu.

The bad guys will take advantage of our shakey world

The world has never seemed more vulnerable, fragile and shaking to its roots. Of course there are millions of people on the planet whose lives have been miserable and desperate for as long as they can remember. But I'm referring here to the political world, the world where big decisions are made that affect everyone. This is where new vulnerabilities have arisen. Millions of young people who cannot find a job either becasue AI has taken over or because governmnents have imposed taxes or restrictions which have forced businesses to cut back on recruiting and investment. And above all, it's the constant drumbeat of violence, people, often in their 20s, turning to violent extremes to vent their fury and frustrations. The suspected killer of Charlie Kirk looks like an ordinary 21-year-old with a decent education and hope for the future. Yet he was driven to commit a terrible act of violence. How could that be? America is supposed to be the country where individual hopes and dreams can lead to happiness and prosperity. But America is changing. It's still a great country but deep down there are scary uncertainties about everything. It's the same in the UK. A wonderful country but too many things are going wrong, politically, economically and socially. Is it all the government's fault? No. Is Keir Starmer to blame for the way the country appears to be going down hill? No, not really. But I think it's fair to say that this country is lacking in inspiring leadership. The US on the other hand has a charismatic leader who seems super-self-assured but the country is possibly more divided than ever. What the answer is, I don't know but the world is so fragile at present that the bad guys are going to help themselves. There are leaders on the planet who are already seizing their moment and grabbing what they can while this period of uncertainty remains. I don't need to name names.

Why on earth was Peter Mandelson appointed in the first place?

The decision to appoint Lord Peter Mandelson as the UK ambassador to Washington was always a mistake. It showed that Keir Starmer wasn't satisfied with any of the potential candidates from within the Foreign Office. The Washington job is the pinnacle appointment for anyone serving as a diplomat and normally goes to someone who has worked his or her way up the diplomatic ladder. Appointing a politician or former politician is always going to be risky and is seen as one in the eye for the senior diplomats who have proved their worth at home and broad. Mandelson has been axed for the increasingly embarrassing revelations about his relationship with the late Jeffrey Epstein, convicted girl sex trafficker. But his appointment in the first place demonstrated unwise judgment by the prime minister. Mandelson's predecessor, Karen Pierce, excelled as ambassador. She was a career diplomat. Now the Foreign Office is in a bad way. Redundancy notices are flying around. Key people holding top director jobs are being dismissed or leaving. The head of the Foreign Office, Sir Oliver Robbins, isn't a career deiplomat but a favoured Downing Street figure after he served as the main Brexit adviser. Too many good people in the Foreign Office are leaving. Now, all the rumours are that Starmer will double-up on his mistake with Mandelson by replacing him with another politician, such as George Osborne, rather than a diplomat who has served in key capitals, such as Moscow or Beijing or Paris. Big mistake!

Has Trump given up on Ukraine and Gaza?

For months there was so much diplomatic activity going on between the United States and all the participants and players and backroom negotiators involved in resolving the wars in Ukraine and Gaza that at any moment the world was expecting to hear about a major breakthrough in both conflicts. Peace at last. I don't know how close it came but we were all expecting the wars would be resolved soon because of Donald Trump's eternal optimism. We believed he could do it. He believed he could do it. Every time his special envoy Steve Witkoff came back from his latest trip to Moscow or Tel Aviv or Qatar, the White House vibe was that there would be good news very soon. But nothing materialised. Putin kept on bombing and killing and destroying and ignoring Trump's entreaties, and Benjanmin Netanyahu did the same and kept on bombing and killing and destroying and ignoring Trump. Peace deals are further away now than they have ever been. Does this mean Trump has finally given up hope of ending either conflict? If that's the case, then it will be a defining legacy for his second administration. Total failure, despite all the effort and hand-wringing. Putin and Netanyahu are basically doing what they want whatever the White House or Europe or anyone else says. There is no world order anymore.

Putin laughs like a drone

Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump's old mate, really is having a laugh. He is not foolish enough to invade Poland but he is testing out Nato's response to aggression with other less threatening but still cunning ways. Cyber attacks are run-of-the-mill these days but his new venture is to send drones into Polish airspace, supposedly erring ones that should have hit targets in western Ukraine but, oops, went a dozen or so miles into Poland. Clearly it wasn't a mistake but was totally deliberate, part of a Kremlin plan to demonstrate that Moscow can do what the hell it likes when it likes and get away with it. Poland is outraged and warns it is closer to conflict with Russia than since the Second World War. That's political hyperbole but it's the response which will make Putin smile because he knows that the few drones which actually got through defences and caused damage will have scared the life out of the Polish people and put Nato on a jittery alert status. Now there's talk of setting up a Drone Watch defence system, so that no one can be caught out ever again. Why wasn't this in place a long time ago? The truth is, Putin will get away with this infringement of Polish sovereignty like he always does because Nato won't want to escalate the situation too much. Next time it will be double the number of drones and then a cruise missile or two. But still Putin will be the one to laugh. Like a drain but in this case, like a drone. This is Putin's time and unless Trump does something pretty drastic, it will remain Putin's time throughout Trump's second administration. PLEASE BUY MY NEW SPY THRILLER, AGENT REDRUTH, DESCRIBED BY THE DAILY MAIL AS MAKING JAMES BOND LOOK TAME. ORDER FROM AMAZON, BARNES & NOBLE, WATERSTONES, ROWANVALE BOOKS.

Israel strikes at Hamas in Doha

If Hamas ever thought their "political" leaders residing in Qatar's Doha capital were safe from Israeli attacks, now they know they have probably always been a potential taget. Previously, as the Hamas representatives in the often-abortive negotiations to end the war in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must have decided it was better to leave them alone, if only to keep the US on side. But now, with the war in Gaza progressing towards a new phase, all bets are off. Netanyahu is in no mood to negotiate, directly or indirectly, with Hamas, especially after the death of six Israeli citizens waiting at a bus stop in Jerusalem, shot dead by Palestinian gunmen. The attack in Doha has been universally condemned, although not by the White House which would have been tipped off prior to the strike. The possibility of peace negotations is now off the table for good. How many of the Hamas hierarchy were killed in Doha is not yet known but the Israel Defence Forces said the strike was carried out with precision munitions which means that targets had been pinpointed. Doha will from now on never be safe again from Israeli attacks. It's a new and dangerous development in the terrible war in Gaza which began after the atrocities caused by Hamas on October 7, 2023.

Will Putin ever meet Zelensky and shake hands?

After three years and nearly seven months of war in Ukraine, are we any closer to seeing a meeting between Putin and Zelensky and a formal shaking of hands of the two enemies? The answer has to be no and no. In fact, I cannot see Putin and Zelensky ever meeting for a peace settlement deal, or anything at all, because the two are always going to be so far apart in what they want and need that a meeting of hands, let alone of minds, seems as far-fetched as Donald Trump persuading Benjamin Netanyahu to accept the two-state solution for Palestinians. These political objectives are just not going to happen under Trump's watch or any US president's watch. It's too late. Both wars are so entrenched that any reason for hope or optimismm has vanished. And yet Trump frequently still suggests that both wars will be resolved "soon". It's difficult to understand why he should think that when both Putin and Netanyahu are ignoring him and world opinion. Trump yesterday indicated he wasn't happy with Putin after the drone-bombing of government buildings in Kyiv which won't have disturbed Putin's breakfast. I think he thinks he knows how to play Trump very well now and is no longer bothered what the US president does or threatens to do and will just carry on regardless, and laugh at all the despairing attempts by European leaders to find a solution to the conflict.

The disastrous failure of peace efforts in Ukraine and Gaza

Nothing better sums up the disasters in Ukraine and Gaza than the current run of bombings by the Russians and the Israelis. Putin's bombers and droners have been hitting Ukraine's government buildings in Kyiv for the first time, and Israel is targeting high-rise buildings in Gaza City, literally reducing them to rubble. Why, is not absolutely clear, other than what seems to be a strategy of total destruction. Putin has decided to attack Ukrainian government buildings for obvious reasons. He wants to up the anti and hurt Zelensky as much as possible by making him even more vulnerable every day of his life. If Zelesnky can develop drones with long-enough range or missiles that can fly more than 1,000 miles, perhaps he will order strikes on the Kremlin. This is the way the war is going to go. Meanwhile, Netanyahu is doing his best to turn Gaza City into a heap of rubble, so no one can live there any more, neither terrorists nor Palestinian citizens. Attempts to stop this mindless destruction in both Kyiv and Gaza City have totally failed. No one, certainly not Donald Trump, can persuade either Putin or Netanyahu to call it a day and go for peace. One of the most gruesome issues in Gaza is that the only hostages now getting released or recovered by military action are already dead. Peace is dead.

Putin says no to European troops in Ukraine

So much has gone into a blueprint plan for sending thousands of troops from the UK and Europe to Ukraine to monitor/reassure/protect a ceasefire or peace settlement. But all to no avail because Putin has stated categorically that he would reject any such scheme. He has now said European troops would be legitimate targets. This cannot have come as a surprise to European leaders because Putin made this clear right from the start. But they are still carrying on as if it really is going to happen. I wonder whow much money has been spent getting this coalition of the willing together for a role they will never actually perform. There are now 26 countries ready to deploy troops to Ukraine. Tens if not hundreds of ohousands of pounds must have been spent in drawing this all together. It beggars belief.

Putin and Xi Zinping want immortality

Never mind world order domination, the war in Ukraine, the rising power of China and the battle with the West and democracy, what Vladimir Putin and Xi Zinping are really interested in is immortality. They are considering organ transplants to keep them alive for many more decades. Their conversation, overheard when they didn't realise the microphone was on during their meeting in Beijing, was pretty gruesome. They actually shared the same belief that if they had other's presumably much younger vital organs that would keep them alive, like for ever. Putin and Xi for ever! Heaven help us and the world. The most extraordinary thing was that both leaders admitted to each other that they had been having the same thoughts about their future. It was like a sci-fi, thinking it might be their best path to live much much longer, and presumably stay in power much much longer. It would be funny if it wasn't both distasteful and somewhat obscene. The golden rule for political leaders is that if you are going to have a conversation like this, it's better to do it in total privacy, away from microphones. Too many damaging remarks have been caught on a "hot" mic over the years, like when Obama promised Putin that if he won the election in the US, he would reset relations with the Russian leader and all would be fine.

Who is the most powerful leader in the world, Donald Trump or Xi Zinping?

Today at least President Xi Zinping of China looks to be the most powerful leader on the world stage. He has surrounded himself with many of the most unsavoury leaders, including Putin and Kim Jong-un, and is parading his most advanced weapons for all to see. Meanwhile, Trump has sent the mighty US Navy to blast away a small speed boat carrying drugs off Venezuela. The contrast couldn't be more dramatic. I know this is an artificial comparison and it's only today but somehow it seems to sum up how the world is going. Trump was asked whether he should be concerned about China and Russia ganging up on the US and he appeared to be very relaxed about it. He even went on to say how much he liked Xi and thought of him as a friend. But this wasn't the message the Chinese leader was giving as he rolled out new intercontinental ballistic missiles onlow loaders in Tiananman Square. He was definitely making the point that China wants to dominate the world order and push Trump to one side. It didn't help that social media yesterday was full of so-called stories claiming Trump had died. Trump was able to do a Mark Twain and say that reports of his death were premature, and he hadn't succumbed to some deadly illness. Trump is alive and apparently well. But there were no reports of Xi Zinping falling ill. He looked in sparkling health and remains leader of China for life. Again, another dramatic comparison.

Is Narendra Modi switching sides?

The Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, holds hands with Vladimir Putin and chats to him and Xi Zinping, the all-powerful leader of China, like they are the best and oldest of friends. Is Modi, hammered by Donald Trump's trade tariffs, demonstrating that he is changing sides, going for the would-be world-dominating, China-led option rather than the old US-dominated western alternative? He is reported to be so angry with Trump that the invitation to attend a meeting in Beijing of China's favourite leaders has given him the opportunity to turn his back on the US and Trump, in particular. It wouldn't be surprising because Trump has singled out India for the toughest tariff punishment for daring to buy Russia's cheap oil and gas. But, of course, it's all part of the game that Modi is especially clever at playing. In other words, one moment he seems to be courting China and the next he will be signing arms deals with the US and pretending everlasting friendship with Washington. Right now, in order to persuade Trump to back down over tariffs he is smooching up to Xi Zinping and, creepy creepy, walking along holding Putin's hand. I bet Putin cringed inwardly but of course he went along with it because he, too, wanted to do two fingers to Trump. So Modi is a clever politician. His smiles and affectionate embraces for Xi Zinping, Putin and others are all aimed at grabbing Trump's attention. What will Trump do? He should be able to see through all this showtime stuff in Beijing. But for the moment, he will probably feel somewhat left out as Xi, Putin, Modi and, later today, Kim Jong-un, on his way by armoured train from North Korea, all pose for pics and lovey-dovey cuddles.

Ignoring climate-change is all the rage

Donald Trump started it. He discounted climate change and global warming from the beginning, dismissing the millions of words of warnings from the world's best scientists and environmentalists, and the pictures of the Artic icecap melting, and the fantastic hot summers etc etc. All he was and is interested in is exploiting all the gas and oil the US has underground and rejecting the alternative energy sources. He hates wind turbines and is trying to dismantle them. Now other foreign politicians are following his example. In the UK, Nigel Farage, the so-called leader of the so-called party called Reform, believes whatever Trump says. The UK's opposition leader, Kemi Badenoch, doesn't like being upstaged by Farage, so she is the latest one to call for huge increases in oil and gas drilling around the the country to make sure nothing is left to waste away. She is thinking jobs and energy profits, never mind the carbon emissions. Meanwhile, the Labour government's energy policy is to go for net zero carbon emissions by 2050 which means no coal or gas or oil but nuclear, wind, solar and whatever else is going. But that policy is being dismissed as impractical even though it's supposed to be the goal set by the international community for the planet. Badenoch has jumped on the bandwagon of those saying it's all nonsense and we need to burn fossil fuel for as long as it's available. I think it's safe to say that the world, with such leaders, will bring this poor old world to an early end. It will just burn up and it will be too late to do anything about it. David Attenborough has spent most of the latter part of his long and extraordinary life warning us all about the dangers of climate change. We all listen and say what a great guy he is. But if governments don't listen we are all doomed.