Joe Biden's last throw of the presidential dice

President Biden’s decision to approve Ukraine’s “limited” use of the US Army’s long-range ATACMS missile system to attack targets deep inside Russia has transformed the battlefield dynamics in the near three-year war. It will also effectively give the green light to the UK and France to authorise Ukraine to fire the Franco-British air-launched cruise missile, known as Storm Shadow and Scalp, respectively, to hit Russian military sites across the border. Both the UK and France have been ready to give this permission for months but have been waiting for Biden to make up his mind about ATACMS. *Will Sir Keir Starmer and President Macron give Kyiv the authority? On the face of it, it should be a straightforward decision. Storm Shadow/Scalp has a range of up to 155 miles and would be a highly effective weapon to target key Russian bases and munitions storage sites, all vital for President Putin’s war against Ukraine. The Labour government has given every indication that it wants Storm Shadow to be available for Ukraine over the border in Russia. The weapon system has been effective against Russian targets inside Ukraine, especially in Moscow-annexed Crimea. While there is little doubt that Starmer will want to join Biden in offering to let Kyiv use these longer-range weapons to hit Russia where it will really hurt, there is one new factor which will have to be taken into account. Biden has just two months left of his presidency. From January 20, Donald Trump will be in the White House, and the Starmer government has to make a careful strategic decision. Does the prime minister go along with Biden’s sudden reversal in policy vis a vis the use of ATACMS inside Russia, or hedge his bets and find a half-way measure so as not to upset the man with whom he will need to nurture a good working relationship over the next four years? Trump has made it abundantly clear he wants to wrap up the war in Ukraine as soon as he gets into power in order to call a halt to the billions of dollars of American weapons flowing for ever into Ukraine. He plans to end the war with a negotiated settlement between Putin and President Zelensky. Would Trump consider a UK decision to end restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow as likely to persuade Putin to come to the negotiating table or just ramp up the war to a more dangerous level? *Is the answer to give Zelensky partial permission to use Storm Shadow against targets inside Russia? According to today’s media reports, Biden has already done this by emphasising the “limited” use of ATACMS inside Russia. Biden has in mind Kyiv using the 190-mile-range ATACMS to help Ukraine defend against the imminently-expected counter-offensive by Russian troops, backed by 10,000 North Korea soldiers, to drive Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region of western Russia. Ukrainian troops crossed the Russian border into the Kursk province in August and seized 1,000 square kilometres of territory. The aim was to give Kyiv extra leverage in the event of a negotiated settlement with Moscow to end the war. In a move, seen in Washington and in London as a dangerous and escalatory decision by Putin, the North Korean troops have been under training for weeks in Russia in order to play a role in the planned counter-offensive in Kursk. Thousands more North Koreans are said to be ready and waiting to join the Russian side. Starmer could follow Biden’s lead and restrict the use of Storm Shadow to Russian targets in and around Kursk, or he could give free reign to Zelensky to deploy Storm Shadow as and where he sees fit. This would be more risky but would be welcomed by the Ukrainian leader who has been pleading to use western-supplied longer-range weapons inside Russia for more than a year. *Would attacks by ATACMS and Storm Shadow inside Russia make a huge difference, in Kyiv’s favour? The war has been going on since February 24, 2022 and during that time there have been a number of significant moments in terms of the West’s upgrading of weapon systems. They have included the decision to send tanks to Ukraine, M1A1 Abrams tanks from the US, Challenger 2s from the UK, Leopard 2s from Germany, among others, as well as F-16 fighter aircraft from Europe, and ATACMS. Zelensky has welcomed every decision but has admitted his disappointment over the delay in sending the equipment which he felt would make a difference against Russian forces. ATACMS has been used already inside Russia but Biden stipulated that they could only be fired on Russian airbases just over the border from where Moscow was launching bombers with cruise missiles against Ukrainian towns and cities. All the upgraded weapon systems sent to Ukraine have helped Kyiv to carry out decisive strikes against Russian positions in eastern Ukraine and ammunition sites. But none of them have so far made such a difference that Ukraine can be said to be heading towards victory against Russia. In fact, the opposite is the case. Russian troops have been making advances in eastern provinces, and Putin has increased the level of missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly power plants. Permission to deploy ATACMS, and Storm Shadow if the Starmer government agrees, against targets in Russia would not in itself change the battlefield landscape. This is partly because Russia has already taken steps to move back its bombers and other aircraft from the border with Ukraine to keep them out of harm’s way. This has not weakened Putin’s ability to attack Ukraine because Russian air-launched cruise missiles have ranges from 340 miles up to 2,800 miles. However, Kyiv has now been engaged in attacks inside Russia with long-range drones for more than a year, reaching as far as the outskirts of Moscow. While many have been shot down, some have got through, and drone debris has added to the damage to buildings which have caused anger and fear among the Russian communities affected. With ATACMS and Storm Shadow added to his inventory for attacks inside Russia, Zelensky and his military commanders would have the firepower to cause much greater damage, and, symbolically, to drive home to the Russian people that their leader’s war in Ukraine is putting their own lives and livelihoods at grave risk. *How might Putin respond to the Biden and expected UK/French decision giving permission to Zelensky to attack Russia? Putin has in the past warned that any such move by the West would effectively mean Russia was at war with Nato. However, for Putin, too, the political circumstances have now changed. With Trump back in the White House in two months, he has every reason to hope that the new US president will pull out the stops to get a negotiated settlement which would tend to favour his own strategy. In other words, he would get to keep all the territory seized and occupied by Russian troops which amounts to about 20 per cent of Ukrainian sovereignty. According to reported Trump ideas to end the war, Putin would also receive reassurance that Nato membership for Ukraine would be off the table, at least for 20 years. So, it wouldn’t necessarily be in Putin’s interest to counter the ATACMS decision with massive retaliation, possibly hitting targets close to or linked to any Nato countries in the region. As for turning to tactical nuclear weapons to hit Ukraine, that would surely be a gamble too far. He might get support from Kim Jong un, the North Korean leader who is now firmly allied militarily and strategically to Putin, the rest of the world’s leaders, notably China’s President Xi Zinping, and the whole of Nato, would unite in condemnation. Putin’s hopes of a favourable settlement brokered by the new Trump administration would be scuppered.