Wednesday, 27 November 2024
Can Biden do the double whammy, a ceasefire in Gaza as well as Lebanon?
For good longlasting legacy reasons, President Joe Biden is keen as mustard to get a ceasefire in both Gaza and Lebanon before he trots off into the retirement sunset. He and his envoys have managed a ceasefire with Hezbollah, although there will be huge room for trouble if Hezbollah fighters start crossing the line drawn beyond which they are supposedly banned from overstepping. The last time there was a line drawn, in 2006 after a stalemate war with Israel, it didn't take too long before they were back in southern Lebanon and firing rockets at Israel like before. So the current ceasefire will have to be monitored very very robustly. Not by UN peacekeepers of course who have a pretty poor record for monitoring anything, but by US spy satellite systems. But a ceasefire has been agreed and we'll see whether it holds. But whether it will lead to a deal in Gaza is another thing. I don't think Benjamin Netanyahu is ready yet for a deal with Hamas. Actually he doesn't want a deal at all if it means Hamas survives for another day of fighting. But there are remnaining hostages to consider and so some sort of deal will have to be done. But I suspect Netanyahu will bide his time. Which means Biden probably won't get his double whammy ceasefire victories. By January 20 when Donald Trump becomes president, there is almost bound to be fighting going on in the Middle East, possibly involving both Hezbollah and Hamas.
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