Thursday, 3 October 2024

Will Iran rush to build a nuclear bomb?

First of all, you can't rush to build a nuclear bomb! It's said that Iran has now progressed so far with enriching uranium to near weapons-grade level that it could be completed in a matter of weeks. While, theoretically, this could be true - enriching from 60 per cent to 95 per cent wouldn't be that difficult - that doesn't mean the ayatollahs will have their hands on a nuclear device in weeks which they could launch against Israel. The most difficult part of developing a usable nuclear bomb comes after the fuel has been enriched to weapons-grade level, including reducing the fissile material to a manageable, miniaturised form, desgning the warhead and, most important of all, fitting it into the end of a missile. That could take up to a year and possibly longer if the Iranian nuclear scientists struggle with the complex design requirements. That's not to say they can't do it, especially if they get help from North Korea or Russia (pretty likely) but it does mean the US and Israel would have more time to plan what to do about it. In any event, Tehran is not going to be in a position to threaten Israel with a nuclear device for another six-twelve months and if the ayatollahs did try to "break out", as it's called, and move rapidly to weapons-grade nuclear material, the whole world would be alerted. Even Joe Biden would be forced to do something. But we are talking about a post-Biden world, either a President Harris or a returned President Trump. I doubt Trump would have much compunction about backing a US/Israel strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Anyway, this is for the future. Now Israel has to decide what to target in retaliation for the missile barrage from Iran. Hitting any of the nuclear sites would be more symbolic than effective without the Pentagon's huge 15-ton Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) which can pierce deep into bunkers before exploding. Israel doesn't have these weapons, only the US. Israel's US-supplied 2,000lb bombs were effective in destroying the Hezbollah HQ bunker in southern Beirut. But Iran's key nuclear plants are buried under layers of concrete inside a mountain. This is where the MOP has to come in.

No comments:

Post a Comment