Biden's failed push for a ceasefire in Gaza

Ceasefire deals to end the war in Gaza have come and gone. President Biden’s unexpected announcement of the latest formula for a settlement, supposedly proposed by Israel, has already fallen by the wayside. In fact, Biden’s three-stage ceasefire deal looked remarkably like the previous ones: a six-week halt to fighting and withdrawal of Israeli troops from populated areas, with a release of some hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners; a negotiated Israel/Hamas settlement for a permanent end to the war; and finally, comprehensive reconstruction of Gaza. However, Israel’s attack on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, the growing hostility around the world towards Benjamin Netanyahu’s grim determination to destroy the terrorist-designated organisation and the perceived failure to stem the deaths of Palestinian civilians had added a new sense of urgency. Biden’s move was unusual. First of all, he claimed the latest ceasefire proposals were from Tel Aviv, not Washington. Second, it seems the White House had not warned the Netanyahu government that Biden was planning to tell the world about the new proposed deal; and third, there appeared to be a large element of psychological arm-twisting involved, presenting a fait accompli to Tel Aviv. The strategy didn’t work. The reason is, there is a fundamental flaw in the behind-the-scenes negotiating between Washington and Tel Aviv, and also in the wider ceasefire talks involving the US, Egypt and Qatar. Only Israel, and specifically Netanyahu, its leader, is really committed to the total destruction of Hamas as a designated terrorist organisation and as the governing body of the Gaza Strip. Biden signed up to this objective but he has now wavered. He has publicly stated that the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have caused such damage to Hamas that as a military group it would no longer be capable of carrying out another October 7 attack when 1,200 Israelis were killed, women were brutally raped and disfigured and more than 250 hostages were seized. Netanyahu clearly doesn’t share this assessment. Despite suffering a huge fatal casualty toll approaching 15,000 of its combat fighters, Hamas remains resilient. The IDF has had to return to areas of Gaza which it thought had been cleared of Hamas fighters, and because of restrictions on military operations in Rafah, imposed by Washington, there are still enough surviving combat battalions to continue the war with Israel. Most importantly, the two main Hamas leaders in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, the overall leader in the Strip, and Mohammed Deif, commander of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, are still believed to be alive and orchestrating the battle with the IDF from a labyrinth of underground bunkers. Netanyahu says they were the architects of the October 7 atrocities. Israel has a reputation for pursuing its enemies, however long it takes. After the slaughter of 11 Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972 by the Black September Palestinian terrorist group, Mossad, the secret intelligence agency, spent years trying to track down and kill those responsible. From Netanyahu’s point of view, agreeing to a ceasefire involving the eventual withdrawal of all Israeli troops, while Sinwar and Deif are still functioning as Hamas leaders, and while they have under their command perhaps 10,000-12,000 fighters, would be impossible to digest. It would also lead to Netanyahu’s political downfall because the two most conservative members of his coalition cabinet, Bezalel Smotrich, finance minister, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, national security minister, have vowed to resign and bring down his government if he succumbs to pressure from Washington and agrees to the ceasefire deal. There is another significant problem causing a seemingly intractable divergence of view between Washington and Tel Aviv. Biden who has his own reasons for wanting to bring the war in Gaza to an end – growing antipathy towards him among young pro-Palestinian American voters opposed to US arms sales to Israel – has a grand scheme in mind for realigning and remodelling relations in the Middle East to create greater stability and a more effective anti-Iran alliance. At the heart of this Big Idea is for Saudi Arabia and Israel to form close diplomatic relations, a potentially historic development which would also involve a hugely expanded strategic partnership between Washington and Riyadh with increased advanced weapons sales and help with building a civilian nuclear industry. The potential breakthrough agreement was getting close, according to the US State Department, when Hamas launched its October 7 attack on Israel. As a consequence, all bets were off, or at least suspended for the foreseeable future which was a blow to Biden because he would have been counting on the diplomatic coup for his re-election campaign. However, no such deal was ever going to be on the cards unless Netanyahu agreed to the formation of a Palestinian state as part of the grand bargain. That was always going to be the trickiest ingredient because the Israeli leader was against it, and now, post-October 7, it’s not going to happen. Not on Netanyahu’s watch. So, all in all, Washington’s hopes of pressurising Tel Aviv into agreeing a ceasefire and a permanent end to the war in Gaza would seem to be premature, if not hopelessly unrealistic. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has made it absolutely clear that he intends to complete his military objectives before a ceasefire can be contemplated, let alone discussions about any sort of meaningful future for the Palestinian people. Tragically, that means there will inevitably be more civilian Palestinian deaths, more destruction of property and the shelving of Biden’s hopes for reshaping the Middle East. Whether Netanyahu will ever succeed in eliminating Hamas is a moot point. Some elements will probably survive, and, of course, the political leadership of the organisation is residing in safe refuge in Qatar, beyond Mossad’s reach, or at least while ceasefire negotiations are carrying on and have a hope of succeeding.