Saturday 1 June 2024

Biden says Hamas no longer a threat to Israel

Yet another ceasefire proposal to end the war in Gaza. But this time it's different. First, it was Joe Biden, and not Bibi Netanyahu, who made the announcement, and, second, Biden made the claim that Hamas had been so badly damaged that it would never again be able to carry out an attack on Israel on the scale of the October 7 assault which left 1,200 Israelis dead. The latter claim presumably was made after consultations between the US and Israel intelligence and military experts. But is it true? Does Netanyahu believe it to be true? The Israel Defence Forces have certainly killed a lot of Hamas fighters, at least 14,000 and probably many more since the operation in Rafah began. But the big sticking point is the apparent survival of the top Hamas leaders, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif. I can't imagine Netanyahu will be satisfied that the IDF operation has been completed until these two Hamas masterminds have been killed or captured. They orchestrated the October 7 atrocities. But if they are never found, how can a ceasefire and the total withdrawal of Israeli troops - key ingredients of the new proposal - be agreed by the Israeli prime minister? He has already hinted that while he approves of the proposal announced by Biden, the war will continue until Israel has met all of its objectives. So the Biden announcement gives reason for optimism that the war can come to an end - and that would be good for Biden's election prospects - but Netanyahu could make this just another ceasefire deal that comes to nothing.

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