Thursday 30 May 2024

Russian military targets inside Russia should be fair game

For more than two years the US has held back on giving permission to Ukraine to use any of its American-supplied longer-range weapons to hit targets inside Russia. Joe Biden said from the beginning that while he was happy to send billions of dollars of arms to Kyiv he didn't want to escalate the war and provoke Moscow into using unconventional weapons to strike at Ukraine, ie nuclear or chemical systems. This has been Biden's greatest fear, that Putin might resort to nukes if Russia itself came under attack. But the fact is Ukraine is already hitting bases in Russia, using long-range drones and missiles, although admittedly domestically-produced weapons and not ones sent by the Pentagon. Ukraine has also used the US ATACMS rocket system to hit Russian targets in Moscow-annexed Crimea. So back in Moscow I imagine Putin is thinking the war has alredy escalated. Would it be such a major step if Washington declared that from now on Russia territory (military targets only) is fair game. After all, in war, if one side launches bombs and missiles, the other side should be entitled to do the same. Keeping the counter-offensive attacks strictly within the boundaries of Ukraine makes little sense and gives a huge advantage to Moscow. If Ukraine started really hammering targets inside Russia with longer-range missiles and rockets supplied by the US, that just might force Putin to seriously consider bargaining for peace. I suspect that at some point this year, Biden will change his mind and will give carte blanche to Kyiv to do what they want and what they consider necessary to stop the Russian rockets and missiles from flying over the border into Ukrainian cities. And that would mean striking at every airbase and missile-launching site across the border. The UK and other European countries have already authorised Kyiv to use their longer-range weapons to hit Russian targets over the border and it would be a huge boost to Zelensky if the Us did the same.

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