Thursday 9 May 2024

Israel will try to make it not look like an invasion of Rafah

Desperate to keep the munitions and artillery shells coming from the US, Israel looks set to invade the southern Gaza town of Rafah without it looking like an invasion. In Gaza City and Khan Younis the Israel Defence Forces went in big with tanks and artillery and combat engineering machines and airstrikes. In Rafah, it seems they are going to carry out a more limited operation in some sections of the town where their intelligence indicates Hamas leaders are hiding. They need the trophy capture or killing of the leaders who orchestrated the massacres and rapes in Israel on October 7. Specifically they need to grab or kill Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas chief in Gaza, and Mohammed Deif, leader of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam brigades. But the IDF cannot afford to go bashing in with all guns blazing because civilians will be killed and there will be a worldwide outcry and condemnation by Washington. So it's going to be more stealthy and precise, and everything will depend on the most up-to-date intelligence. If they can find these two leaders and dismantle much of the remaining four Hamas combat brigades without destroying the town and killing civilians, they will just be able to get away with it. Anything else, and Biden will stop all offensive weapons deliveries and Israel will be on its own.

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