Friday, 19 April 2024

Will Iran now back down and return to the shadows?

The air-launched missile strike back by Israel agaist an Iranian military base has potentially opened up the possibility of direct and prolonged confict between the two countries, something which has been lurking in the background for decades. Unwilling to test Israel too far, Iran has until now relied on its many proxy militia forces in other countries to carry out strikes against Israel, what is universally known as the shadow war between the two countries. By the way, that shadow war HAS included direct attacks by Israel on Iran, but always involving secret undercover missions by Mossad, Israel's spy agency, carrying out assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, for example. But now it has changed. Now the red lines have been crossed and the dangers have risen by a dramatic amount. Will either side back down? Iran has already warned it could leap ahead with its nuclear programme and threaten Israel so the government of Binyamin Netanyahu is never going to back down. The future of Israel itself would be at stake. So it has to be Iran. Somehow the Tehran regime has to stop this war from expanding and already the signs are encouraging. Statements put out officially have denied Israel has caused any damage, playing down the retaliatory strike. But we will have to see how long that lasts. Once the battle damage has been fully assessed, then we will know whether Iran is going to continue with this dangerous tit-for-tat strikes. Meanwhile, what is happening and what is going to happen in Gaza? When will this war end? And will the attacks between Israel and Iran influence what happens in Gaza? The omens look truly bleak.

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