Wednesday, 17 April 2024

So Israel WILL respond, and then what?

When a political leader makes a decision, it is to be hoped that at least one of his/her advisers will ask the one crucial question: what will be the consequences? Thus, Binyamin Netanyahu and his alarming war cabinet came out of their meeting yesterday with the decision that Iran will be punished for daring to attack Israel with missiles and drones. Punished with a military strike. Whether on Iranian territory or on a target linked to one of Tehran's many proxy militia forces, no one was saying. But whatever Netanyahu has in mind there will be consequences because then Tehran will have to decide how to respond and so on and so on. When does tit-for-tat end? Who blinks first? It's clearly not going to be Israel. But this is where that vital question has to be examined again and again. What are the likely worst-case-scenario repercussions if Israel and Iran continue to bash each other? Attempting to put myself into Netanyahu's mind, the Israeli leader will want to carry out a retaliatory strike which not only matches the thunderous barrage from Iran on Sunday but also sends the clearest warning to the ayatollahs that at the end of the day Israel can and will launch a full-scale attack on Iran if required. So, for these reasons, I suspect Netanyahu's choice is to select a target in Iran itself, a very significant target, and destroy it, just like he did in Damascus on the Iranian consulate building. My prediction would be a strike on an Iranian ballistic-missile base which would be seen by the Israeli war cabinet, if not in Washington, as an appropriate and proportionate strike - targeting the missile units that launched the attack on Israel. But how would Tehran respond to such an attack? Could they do nothing and just take the punishment? I seriously doubt it which is why that question about consequences has to be asked again and again and again.

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