Wednesday, 13 March 2024

Is Hamas winning?

The Israel Defence Forces claim to have killed 13,000 Hamas terrorists which means they have probably eliminated about half of the available Hamas organisation in Gaza. Binyamin Netanyahu says there are seven Hamas combat brigades still fighting in southern Gaza. In five months of war in Gaza, that Hamas death toll could be assessed as a high achievement by IDF and if the rest of the brigades can be wrapped up, once Netanyahu gives the go ahead for a full-scale assault on the town of Rafah in southern Gaza, then victory could be Israel's. But the reality is totally different. In the five months since October 7 when Hamas launched its terrible slaughter across the border into Israel, the strategic landscape has changed beyond recognition. Hamas cannot defeat the IDF, so tactically they are losing. But stategically they are winning the argument on the world stage. They have successfully made the world turn against Israel but, most importantly, they have forced the administration of President Joe Biden, Netanyahu's strongest ally, to do a complete about-turn. Now, Biden keeps on ringing Netanyaho to tell him to stop killing civilians, he is air-dropping food supplies to the Palestinians and has ordered the US military to build a temporary port so food can be brought in by ship. The US is thus reacting to the daily claims by Hamas of rising casualties. Of course there are huge casualties, and of course, it's largely the Israeli troops and bombers who are causing the deaths and injuries among the civilians, but all of this serves the interests of Hamas who want the world to condemn Israel in order to stop the IDF from going ahead with attacking Rafah where half Gaza's population is sheltering. Israel says it's all the fault of Hamas because they are hiding and fighting behind the Palestinian people, using them as human shields. That's unquestionably true. But right now Hamas is winning the strategic battle. It's an extraordinary and dangerous state of affairs. The CIA and other US intelligence agencies assess it's unlikely Israel can eliminate Hamas and fear the war may go on for years. The tragedy is that if Hamas IS winning the strategic battle, will the 100 or so hostages ever be released?

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