Wednesday, 20 December 2023

Biden avoiding war with Houthis

The Pentagon has sent aircraft carriers, destroyers, fighter aircraft and Tomahawk cruise missiles to the Middle East but is desperately trying to avoid a war. There is enough firepower on the warships and additional weaponry on the US base in nearby Djibouti to launch widescale strikes on the Houthi militants in Yemen who have been firing daily drones and cruise missiles across the Red Sea ever since Israel began its military operation against Hamas in Gaza. However, no authority has been given by President Biden to take any action other than to shoot down the drones and missiles at huge expense – more than $1 million a shot. The reason is simple. The US wants to contain the war between Israel and Hamas and prevent he conflict becoming a regional security crisis that would lead to a conflagration involving the Houthis, Iran, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and possibly other parties. The Pentagon has drawn up target lists for attacking Houthi military facilities but contingency planning is a long way from a political decision by the White House to go to war with the Yemeni rebels who are armed and funded by Tehran. The US naval forces sent to the eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea, including two aircraft carrier battle groups, were deployed to act as a deterrent to the Houthis and Iran. But the presence of so much firepower has failed to stop the persistent attacks on commercial shipping, and rocket strikes by Iran-backed Islamic militias on American troop positions in Iraq and Syria. As a result, there is a war of sorts going on between the US and the Houthis and, by linkage, with Iran. But with the Houthis it’s purely defensive and with Iran it has involved limited airstrikes on the militia forces in Iraq and Syria. The next step for the US, striking Houthi targets in Yemen and even military facilities in Iran connected with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, would run the risk of inflaming the whole Middle East region and undermining any hopes of bringing the war in Gaza to an end in the near future. The US would also be on its own. While 19 countries have signed up for the maritime patrol mission to protect commercial shipping in the Red Sea, none would get involved in a war with the Houthis. Saudi Arabia, not a participant in the new Operation Prosperity Guardian maritime force, led a coalition of nine countries in airstrikes against the Houthis for eight years but recently forged a fragile peace agreement . Riyadh would not want to put that at risk by joining with the Americans in new retaliatory strikes on the Houthis. So, at present, the US has good reason to stick with the current policy of protecting commercial shipping and shooting down anything coming from Yemen but holding off from striking Houthi targets.

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