China's acceleration towards superpower military status

The US is running out of time to keep ahead of China’s unstoppable war machine, America’s top commander in the Indo-Pacific has warned Congress. Admiral John Aquilino described Beijing’s rapidly growing navy, the spread of hundreds of silos under construction in northern China to house nuclear armed-ballistic missiles, and the doubling in production of fifth-generation stealth fighters . “China continues the largest, fastest, most comprehensive military build-up since World War II in both the conventional and strategic nuclear domains,” the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command (Indopacom) told the House armed services committee, “Conflict in the Indopacom area of operations is neither imminent nor inevitable. Nevertheless, we do not have the luxury of time, we must act now to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific,” he said. He also highlighted as a rising threat the “no limits” strategic partnership between President Xi Zinping and President Putin. This had led to the Russian transfer of highly-enriched uranium to Beijing for developing weapons-grade plutonium for China’s expanding nuclear forces, he said. As the admiral gave the latest warning about China’s rapid march towards superpower military status, Beijing issued a statement condemning the US supply of up to 400 land-based Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Taiwan. “The military liaison between the US and Taiwan and the arms sales by the US to Taiwan seriously violate the one-China policy and the three Sino-US joint communiques,” Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said. Under the one-China policy, the US recognises the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the sole legal government of China but only “acknowledges” the Chinese position that Taiwan is part of China. However, Washington maintains unofficial relations with the Taipei government and supplies the island state with arms to defend itself. President Biden has on at least three occasions pledged that the US would go to Taiwan’s aid if Beijing tried to seize control of the island by force. Wang said the sale of Harpoons “severely harms China’s sovereignty and security interests and seriously threatens the peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”. Looking at the wider threat for the whole Indo-Pacific region, Aquilino said “the most stunning of all” developments was the way the PLA rocket force had continued “to massively expand its arsenal of conventional and nuclear missiles, building hundreds of silos for nuclear missiles and fielding several hundred ballistic and cruise missiles”. “This almost certainly includes a large number of hypersonic missiles, some of which may be nuclear-capable,” Aquilino said. “Construction of silo fields across northern China, coupled with modern ballistic-missile submarines and the H-6N nuclear-capable, air-to-air refuelling bomber, underscore China’s focus on developing a survivable nuclear triad,” he warned. “The PRC has not declared an end goal nor acknowledged the scale of its nuclear force expansion,” he said. “[However] the PRC will likely possess at least 1,000 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2030 [echoing the Pentagon’s published estimate],” the admiral said. “This larger arsenal could provide the PRC with new options before and during a crisis or conflict to leverage nuclear weapons for coercive purposes, including military provocations against US allies and partners in the region,” he said, hinting at a likely strategy in the event of the US trying to defend Taiwan from a PLA invasion. Referring to China’s growing navy, he said Beijing had added 17 principal warships to its navy last year, including four guided-missile cruisers, three destroyers, five frigates, two attack submarines and a large amphibious assault ship. He predicted that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (Plan), currently with 350 “battle force ships”, would increase in size to 440 by 2030. Battle force ships are defined as aircraft carriers, submarines, surface combatants, amphibious warfare ships, combat logistics vessels and some support ships. By comparison, under current US Navy shipbuilding plans, the number of battle force ships would increase from 292 today to a maximum of 367 by 2052. The US still has far more carriers than China – 11 compared with China’s two in service and one new-generation carrier launched last year – but Beijing could have five by 2030. Beijing has pinpointed 2027 as the target for the PLA to deliver capabilities “needed to counter the US military in the Indo-Pacific and project power across the globe”. As part of the drive to meet this timeframe, the PLA had doubled production of the fifth-generation J-20 “Mighty Dragon” stealth fighter, with an estimated 150 now operational, and is developing a jet-engined supersonic drone. China also carried out 64 successful space launches last year which placed more than 160 satellites into orbit, expanding intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. This compared with 55 space launches in 2021, Aquilino said.