Will a new Russian mobilisation make a difference?

There are widespread reports that Putin's next move in Ukraine is to mobilise another 500,000 troops for a massive spring offensive. But will fresh troops make the sort of difference which Putin is desperate for? Well, clearly, shoving another half a million newly recruited warfighters into Ukraine to confront the battle-hardended but weary Ukrainian forces would give the Russian forces and their commanders the chance of a renewed momentum as well as frustrate Kyiv's hopes of retaking Crimea and the eastern Donbas region. But the Ukrainians have learned so many invaluable lessons in the ten months of the war that even with such a large influx of new Russian soldiers Putin is likely to fail to make the sort of breakthrough he wants. For a start, by the time the newly mobilised troops have been trained and deploy to Ukraine, the Kyiv government will have 50 US-supplied Bradley armoured fighting vehicles and a whole pile of new advanced weapons which should be more than enough to keep the Russians, reinforcements included, cowering in their trenches. Joe Biden is already coming under renewed pressure to supply more and more fancy weapons to change the balance on the battefield in Ukraine. Robert Gates, former Pentagon chief, and Condoleezza Rice, ex-secretary of state, are the latest George W Bush officials to urge a much greater supply of weapons for Kyiv to get the job done this year and end the war. Well, the last package of arms announced last week were worth more than $3 billion, so I think Biden is doing a pretty good job keeping the Ukrainians equipped to fight the Russians. But I think Gates and Rice are probably right. This is the year when the war has to end one way or the other. A massive counter-offensive by the Kyiv forces may be the only way to drive the Russians out. But as I have written before, that could be when the US and Nato accelerate the possibility of a war between the alliance and Russia. Is it worth the risk? Probably yes because Putin would be too scared to take on the might of Nato. If Russian forces are being defeated by Ukrainian "minnows" what chances have they got of beating Nato?