One hundred leaders to make 100 speeches!

The trouble with world summits involving, well, almost the whole world, it means every leader attending will want to make an opening speech. At the Glasgow climate-change summit that's 100 speeches for starters. And interpreters to interpret them. And then there are 25,000 delegates to discuss them and try to sort them into some sort of framework for action. Hopefully all 100 leaders will have the same message: "We must do something now before it is too late." If only it were that simple. There will be so many provisos and conditions and head-shaking and compromises and rejections that in the end the communique after 14 days will be a miracle of words and high-falutin phrases that may not mean that much. Glasgow is awash with foreign delegates. Biden alone has 45 vehicles to cart his lot around. The added pollution for the city will be enough to undo almost everything the leaders promise in the next few days. And think of all the stakes and beef and burgers that will be consumed to keep them happy and well-fed. Endless speeches, endless meals, endless convoys, all supposedly to save the planet from catastrophe. One can only feel extreme pessimism.

Grown men fighting over fish

I don't profess to be knowledgeable about the intricacies of fishing rights but it strikes me that the current fight going on between the French and the British, and thus between President Emmanuel Macron and Boris Johnson, has all gone out of control and is about as dignified as two alleycats scrapping in the back yard. Surely grown men can sort this out without ruining relations between France and Britain and turning the whole thing into an embarrassing farce. Somehow French and British fishermen have to get their fair share of the catches without becoming immersed in political wranglings. I fear that behind the bravado talk by Macron what he is really wanting is to punish Britain for daring to leave the European Union and that he is not interested in making compromise deals with the Brits. If that's the case then relations between Paris and London will be skewered for a long time. This is madness. La demence!

Majid Khan Guantanamo detainee was tortured but forgives

There are 39 detainees left at Guantanamo and one of them, Majid Khan, has done a deal with the FBI and has been talking to them for years about al-Qaeda. So when he is sentenced this week or some time soon for his terrorism offences for which he has pleaded guilty, he will probably serve only a few more months before being released to a new secret life. Yesterday at the Guantanamo detention camp courthouse which is surrounded by a high wire fence and floodlights and CCTV cameras, he gave details of how he was tortured by the CIA during his time in their care at their secret black prisons in Europe and elsewhere before being transferred to Guantanamo on Cuba. The details were gruesome and repugnant and they made me think not for the first time that the American intelligence agency, under orders from George W Bush, committed the gravest human rights violations ever in their history. Torture can never be justified under any circumstances even at that most extraordinary time post-9/11 when the US was so desperate to capture as many of the al-Qaeda terrorists as possible who were suspected of being responsible for the 2001 attacks and for other terrorist atrocities. Majid Khan who has now rejected what al-Qaeda stands for and has admitted his terrorist crimes surprisingly forgave his torturers. But it is the harsh interrogation techniques during those dark years after 9/11 which stand in the way of trials of the remaining Guantanamo detainees, and in particular the five accused of masterminding the attacks which killed nearly 3,000 people. Torture never pays. It might elicit some worthwhile intelligence material although that has to be in doubt and whatever the detainees said under torture can never be used in court as evidence. Thus trials are near-impossible to organise. That has been the case at the Guatanamo courtroom for about 18 years.

Yes there are US troops in Taiwan, says Taiwan president

The Pentagon has never been closer to Taiwan and yet the US defence department still adheres to a policy of strategic ambiguity on the biggest question: would American military forces guarantee to fight alongside the Taiwanese if China invaded the self-governing island? Few analysts, especially in Beijing, would have much doubt about the answer. The conviction that the US would intervene has been strengthened by the confirmation from Taiwan’s president that American troops are currently engaged in training the island’s defence forces. When news broke in Washington three weeks ago that at least two dozen troops were in Taiwan, the Pentagon underlined the important role the US played in helping the Taiwanese to defend themselves but resisted any form of confirmation that American troops were present on the island. The first confirmation, coming from President Tsai in her interview with CNN, made no specific reference to the type of military trainers involved. However, this is the key element of the agreement between the Pentagon and Taipei because the 30 or so military personnel consist of Green Beret soldiers from the 1st Special Forces Group, and Marine Raiders. Both units have specialised skills in training foreign military allies in every aspect of defensive warfare. As part of their own intensive training the Green Berets and Marine Raiders would have been schooled in the culture and language of their Taiwanese counterparts, and would be fully appraised of the latest intelligence of the threat posed by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The quality and experience these special trainers bring to the Taiwanese forces, even though they are only modest in number, will be helping to prepare Taiwan for a possible attack by the PLA. Along with the advanced weaponry being provided by the Pentagon, Taiwan is relying more and more on American protection against an increasingly belligerent Beijing. The presence of Green Berets and Marine Raiders in Taiwan is not like having an in-theatre fighting force, as in Japan and South Korea where the US has a combined total of nearly 80,000 troops. However, the role they are playing in Taiwan is viewed in Beijing as a deliberate provocation by Washington. Marine Raiders, for example, who serve with US Special Operations Command, are experts in amphibious warfare, including how best to defend against enemy landing-craft beach invasions. The specialist troops who rotate to maintain a permanent training function are too few to take a combat role in the event of a surprise PLA attack but would be a vital component in preparing the ground for rapid US military reinforcements. These trainers were first sent about a year ago when Donald Trump was president as it became an increasing concern that China might act earlier than previously anticipated in using force, rather than diplomacy, to bring Taiwan under Beijing control. However, under the Pentagon’s foreign internal defence programme, it is likely that Green Berets will have operated in secret in Taiwan in previous years. It is only now that their presence in Taiwan has been officially confirmed.

Spend spend spend Chancellor of the Exchequer

There have been so many leaks of all the good stuff to come out of the UK Government Budget Statement made in the House of Commons today that no surprises were expected. But there was one surprise. Rishi Sunak, elegant and articulate, said he planned to spend £180 billion!! After the mountain of money he dished out during the pandemic lockdowns to keep businesses solvent and stop employees being sacked up and down the country, you would have thought so much had been borrowed that there was no room for any more spending until at least a chunk of the debts had been paid off. But no, here we go, it's spend, spend, spend. I was never that good at maths at school but I understand the basics. You can only spend money when you have actually got it in your pocket or your bank. Sunak has borrowed, borrowed, borrowed and has committed the country to paying interest for years on something like £500 billion pounds, and now the banks are warning of interest rates rising, so the interest bill will get bigger and bigger. How, Mr Chancellor, are you going to balance the books? As with all Budget Statements it's the small print that needs checking and this generally takes 24 hours more of poring over the details. The Institute of Fiscal Studies does this job for us voters and its ubiquitous director will be on every television channel and radio explaining how the Chancellor has made 2 plus 2 equal 6. Joe Biden the other side of the Atlantic has this grand plan of taxing billionaires to find the money he needs to cover the $3.5 trillion he is planning to spend in post-pandemic recovery. But I suspect billionaires are not billionaires by giving their money away to the taxman and sure as hell they will find ways of evading Biden's money-grabbers. Boris and Sunak will probably find the same problem if they decide to tax, tax, tax the rich.

Desperate pictures of starving children in Afghanistan

The sight of babies and children suffering from the most appalling malnutrition and lying in hospitals seemingly near to death in Herat, western Afghanistan, is desperately sad. That poor country went through decades of vicious war and now because the new rulers are the Taliban, hated enemy of the United States, all international money has stopped and what assets the Kabul government had have been frozen. There is simply no money for people to buy food. The appalling story on the BBC last night of a family selling their latest baby for $500 just so that they can survive for the next three months is so tragic the whole world needs to take note and start pouring in donations to save the people of this wretched nation. The war is over, all foreign troops and official aid agencies such as USAID have gone and it's time Washington and every other capital involved in the 20-year war provide the means of keeping Afghan families alive as winter appoaches, otherwise tens of thousands of Afghans, young and old, are going to die. We, the West, invaded Afghanistan to rid the country of al-Qaeda and took on a much bigger task of trying to defeat the Taliban and build a new nation blessed with the finest human rights and freedom for everyone and prosperity. And tragically failed! The Taliban are only interested in forging an extreme Islamic state where women have no rights. It's our responsibility now to save Afghanistan, not from the Taliban, but with money and a system to distribute the funds to those who need them and to stop children dying from malnutrition.

Military fuel out of thin air to save the planet and millions of dollars

The US Air Force, the biggest single guzzler of fossil fuel in America, has taken a significant step forward in creating a different way of powering its huge inventory of aircraft by making jet fuel out of thin air. An energy company working with the air force has produced fuel, called E-Jet, by recycling carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air with water and renewable power sources. Experiments have proved that the jet fuel is operationally viable, opening up the potential for saving hundreds of millions of dollars – and helping to save the planet. The air force burns two billion gallons of aviation fuel a year and spends more than $8 billion annually for fuel of all types including petrol and diesel for vehicles. With global warming and climate change forcing the US military to find alternative ways of powering aircraft, warships, armoured vehicles and basic garrison energy supplies, all the services have been engaged in experiments for many years. The US Navy has a “green fleet” vision, with some warships already running on advanced biofuels. The latest announcement by the air force could have the biggest impact of all on reducing the American military’s carbon footprint once the synthetic carbon-neutral fuel is produced in sufficient quantities for world-wide operations. In a statement the air force says the plan is to have access to E-jet fuel anywhere on the planet, at any time and with no air or road tankers required. Synthetic fuels have been around for 100 years and are used in a mix-and-match combination with petroleum fuel in many US military aircraft. They were first created in 1925 by two German scientists, Franz Fischer and Hans Tropsch, who converted carbon monoxide and hydrogen to make liquid hydrocarbons. However, these fuels were produced through burning coal, natural gas or biomass (plant or animal material). The American company, Twelve, based in Berkeley, California, has produced fossil-free jet fuel, using electrified CO2, and claims its E-Jet has more than 90 per cent lower life-cycle emissions than conventional jet fuel. “History has taught us that our logistics supply chains are one of the first things the enemy attacks. As peer adversaries pose more and more of a threat what we do to reduce our fuel and logsistics demand will be critical to avoid risk and win any potential war,” said Robert Guerrero, deputy assistant secretary of the air force for operational energy. Future challenges will include how to power the production of the synthetic fuel in remote areas and where water sources for the hydrogen will come from. The company says water can be captured from the air. “With carbon transformation [technology] we are untethering aviation from petroleum supply chains,” Nicholas Flanders, Twelve co-founder, said. Globally the aviation industry consumes 100 billion gallons of fossil fuels and emits one billion tons of carbon dioxide every year.

Will we/can we save the planet?

So many warnings about the climate changes overwhelming the planet, yet still it is difficult to have ay confidence that the world's govenments will do nearly enough to reduce carbon emissions rapidly and to introduce new forms of energy supply to keep this creaking globe working, functioning and survving, and, hopefully, flourishing. Saudi Arabia, the Big Daddy of oil suppliers, has pledged to move to zero carbon emissions - by 2060. That's THIRTY-NINE years away. By then Bangladesh and the Maldives could be covered over in seawater. Why is there still no real sense of urgency even though every climatologist and David Attenborough are telling us if we don't act NOW it will be too late. In some respects it's already too late. The answer is simple. It's all about money and personal sacrifice. It's going to cost several trillion-dollar fortunes to wean countries off traditional energy supplies - oil and natural gas - and people everywhere who can afford it will have to play their part in changing their ways and going carbon-neutral, or as neutral as possible. But there is no perfect solution to any of the challenges and for that reason a lot of people - probably most people - will shrug their shoulders and say it can't be done, or not yet, and will wait before acting. Like electric cars. All fine if you can afford them which most people can't but even e-cars are not idea lfor saving the planet. Why? Because they rely on batteries which are not eco-friendly and when they run out they will have to be scrapped, and how do you scrap toxic batteries without damaging the environment? And then there's gas boilers. I've already blogged about the ridiculous obstacles to installing heat pumps. But what is to happen to all the old gas boilers? They will have to be scrapped - a huge and environmentally unfriendly prospect. When they first thought up nuclear power plants and nuclear-powered submarines, experts said it was wonderful and would last for ever. Except nuclear power creates nuclear waste, and nuclear submarines don't go on ad infinitum. At some point the nuclear waste and the ageing nuclear reactors have to be stored safely. It can't just all be thrown away on a tip. Plutonium remains radioactive for at least 25,000 years for example. There has been talk for decades about storing unwanted nuclear stuff into glass constructions and burying it all under granite rock. But as far as I know nothing like that has ever been built because no one wants a nuclear waste dump, even below ground, anywhere near their homes. And what if water somehow seeps into the granite Fort Knox and radioactive liquid gets into the water supply? So as we dump more and more of our old-style bad-for-the-environment stuff, where the hell is it all going to go? Nevertheless, despite all these challenges, it's now that the big decisions have to be taken and I really don't think governments anywhere on the planet are seriously getting to grips with it. Will we/can save the planet? Not at the rate we are going at the moment.

It's all hypersonic warfare planning

The hypersonic warfare arms race between China, Russia and the United States has taken a surprising and dramatic turn, leading to fears of a dangerous lowering of the nuclear threshold. China, it was reported, carried out a successful test in August, combining Cold War ballistic missile and new super-speed technologies to demonstrate an ability to place a nuclear warhead into orbit around the planet. If true, this would introduce a new layer of uncertainty in the fragile concept of nuclear deterrence. Beijing claimed the test was only about launching a spacecraft and had nothing to do with a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile. But if western intelligence agencies are right in their analysis of the August missile test, does this mean China has now taken a giant step forward in the hypersonic race and that the United States has a lot of catching up to do? The US has dithered in the past in embracing the concept of weapons capable of reaching Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound) and beyond. As a result, investment and congressional backing suffered a period of fits and starts. But not any longer. The Pentagon is now fully behind the hypersonic game and has the money to make rapid progress - $3.2 billion this year and a request for $3.8 billion in 2022. However, while all three “major-power” rivals are investing heavily in hypersonic technology they appear to have different objectives in pursuing weapons that could reach speeds of Mach 27, the equivalent of more than 20,000mph. By comparison, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) can reach 15,000mph in its mid-course phase and would take around 30 minutes between, say, Moscow and Washington. Despite varying aims, China, Russia and the US are all focusing on the same two categories of hypersonic weapon technology: *A hypersonic glide vehicle launched from a rocket at more than Mach 5 on the edge of Earth’s atmosphere which then manoeuvres at will while gliding downwards to its target. This makes it more difficult, if not impossible, to track by space-based or ground-based sensors because the glide vehicle would be operating in a middle, in-between area for much of its journey in a radar-blind trajectory. Russia claims its Avangard nuclear-capable, unlimited-range hypersonic missile is already in service. *A hypersonic cruise missile, launched by aircraft, warship or submarine, which has a more limited range but reaches similar speeds with the aid of a scramjet engine (a supersonic combustion engine). It would be a devastating carrier-killer. Russia is developing such a system to be nuclear capable, called Zircon. The Pentagon has a programme called Project Mayhem aimed at developing a bigger and longer-range hypersonic cruise missile, but not nuclear. China’s test carried out in August, according to an intelligence-sourced report in the Financial Times, appeared to use a ballistic-missile nuclear-warhead delivery system espoused by the Soviet Union in the 1970s with an add-on hypersonic glide vehicle. “What I think is likely is that the Chinese have taken a hypersonic glide vehicle and mashed it with a fractional orbital bombardment system, FOBS, developed by the Soviet Union in the Cold War,” said Ian Williams, specialist in missile defence and nuclear weapons at the Washington-based centre for strategic and international studies (CSIS). “Instead of having a ballistic missile that goes up into space and down again, they’re aiming [like the Soviets did] to get the nuclear warhead launched into a low orbit and then [with the help of hypersonic glide technology] to keep it in orbit for as long as they want, “ he said. The US, however, has no such ambition. Unlike China, all of the Pentagon’s efforts are being devoted to developing conventionally-armed hypersonic weapons that are simply faster and longer-range systems for use on the battlefield. “China sees hypersonic weapons as a way of meeting their concerns about getting through US missile defences [the ground-based missile interceptors in Alaska and California]. In other words they want to hold US homeland targets at risk and make Washington hesitate to confront China if Beijing, for example, were to move against Taiwan,” Williams said. “The US by comparison does not see hypersonic missiles as nuclear weapons but as conventional systems which can take out time-sensitive targets, like, for example, if North Korea was spotted fuelling up ballistic missiles [for an attack on the US], US political leaders might have two hours to make a decision to take preemptive action. Using a Tomahawk , the 500mph land-attack cruise missile, would be too slow,” Williams said. Mike White, in charge of hypersonics programmes at the Pentagon, said recently that the aim was to have a missile that would cover 500 miles in ten minutes. “If you need to really reach out and touch somebody 1,000, 2,000, even 3,000 nautical miles away, you can do that with a hypersonic system. Our current capabilities don’t afford that ability,” he said. Sensibly, Williams said, the US was also developing ways of countering hypersonic missiles and had a programme to put small satellites into low orbit to help detect the path of incoming glide vehicles. “It’s vital to have situational awareness to see where the hypersonic vehicles are flying. If you don’t know where they are there is no time for political leaders to make a decision [about how to intercept them],” he said. With ICBMs it’s possible via missile-detection satellites to spot the burn of the rocket launch, track the missile trajectory and then calculate where it is heading and when it will arrive on target. That is not so easy when a missile travelling at many times the speed of sound is swerving around in the atmosphere and even changing direction. Russia’s interest in hypersonic weapons, Williams said, was more about “signalling and chest-thumping”. “They claim to have fielded some of these weapons but they are in insignificant numbers. They are more for a flashy show than a genuine missile threat,” he said. The Avangard missile was hailed by President Putin as a weapon capable of evading all missile defences. But even if made with the latest high-tech ceramics, it would have to survive intense heat flying in the Earth’s atmosphere at hypersonic speed for any length of time. “I don’t think the Russians have yet mastered the science,” Williams said. “Where Russia does have the edge is with its Zircon hypersonic cruise missile which the Russians see as a way of countering Nato’s conventional superiority,” he said. Other countries developing hypersonic weapons include North Korea which claims to have tested its first prototype called Hwasong-8 last month, as well as India, Australia, France, Germany, South Korea and Japan.

The bizarre fatal shooting on the film set

The extraordinary incident in the US when Alec Baldwin accidentally shot and killed a young female cinematographer on a film set with a Hollywood prop gun deserves a Q and A to explain how on earth this could have happened: Q What is a prop gun? A It looks like a real gun in every aspect but it’s loaded with blank cartridges? Q What is a blank cartridge? A The firing mechanism is the same as for a live round. So there’s a build-up of gas to create sufficient pressure to produce an explosive sound and a muzzle flash but there is no bullet at the end of the cartridge. Q Is there any difference between a military gun firing blanks and a prop gun ? A Yes. The military have what is called a blank firing attachment at the end of the barrel. In the British military it’s a yellow attachment that blocks off the barrel hole. Soldiers are reassured they are only using blanks in firing exercises when they see the yellow attachment sticking out at the end. Q Does a prop gun have a similar attachment? A No because if it did it would look unrealistic for a film. Q So what is used instead? A Some form of padding, like a cotton wad, is wedged into the end of the cartridge. There is no bullet but when the gun is fired the wadding is released like a projectile. Q How could this be fatal? A The only explanation is if the wadding was fired accidentally at very close range. If the projectile hit anywhere in the head it could be lethal. This is what happened. The poor victim had her skull crushed and she suffered a brain haemorrhage. Q But the gun was fired twice. Why would this have happened? A The gun, probably a revolver, would have worked like a normal one. In the early days a shooter had to pull the hammer back before each shot and then pull the trigger to release the hammer. But with modern revolvers simply pulling the trigger forces the hammer back and the next round is fired. The actor was probably so shocked by the noise of the firing gun that his finger slipped and the trigger was pulled again. Q Could a live round have been placed by mistake into the gun chamber? A This would seem to be wholly unlikely. Because a real gun is being used to create a realistic film scene, there would have been a specialist safety team on the set to ensure there could be no risk involved. Q Has a blank-firing incident led to a fatality in the past? A Yes, in the 1980s an actor fired blanks at his head for a joke and died. But safety measures today are much stricter. e

Time to deal with North Korea and Iran

So much focus is going on at this time aboout the threats posed by big-power rivals China and Russia that the more near-term scary stuff - vis a vis North Korea and Iran - seems to be increasingly unfixable. North Korea is giving off weird signals about wanting peace but firing off missiles almost every day, some of them claimed to be new and much more advanced and exotic. And Iran is so anti-US that it's difficult to see how the Biden administration is going to persuade the ayatollahs to go back to the 2015 nuclear deal signed with Obama. Admittedly they have an excuse because it was Donald Trump when president who opted out of the deal, saying it was a disaster. So now with Joe Biden trying to get the whole deal back on track, Tehran seems to be saying "Ha, we don't trust you." But Iran is now governed by an even more conservative president than the previous one and the brinkmanship game is red-hot, with Tehran wanting the lifting of all international sanctions in return for any sort of restrictions on its nuclear programme. As for North Korea, if they do have any doves in their cupboards they ain't flying! The only things flying are ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles into the Sea of Japan. This can't go on. Something will either go wrong or there could be a miscalculation. Biden is so focused on his domestic multi-trillion dollar social revival programme that his eye may not be on the North Korea and Iran ball. It's time for serious talking. I see the US ambassador to the United Nations has today urged talks with Pyongyang but Kim Jong-un is too busy launching missiles to listen. Biden I think, if he hasn't already, should consider doing a Trump and offer to meet the chap and try and knock some sense into him. But then Trump failed so there's not much chance the North Korean leader will listen with much interest to the softly-speaking Biden. And Iran? Who knows whether they want any sort of deal. I think they are still determined to go nuclear (weapons, not energy) and will only do a deal when they've got them.

Is the Glasgow climate-change summit going to be all blah blah blah?

Poor Boris. The Glasgow climate-change mega summit looks more and more doomed to be an anti-climax, if not a disastrous flop. Xi Zinping, ruler of the most coal-polluting nation on the planet, isn't coming, so that means zilch interest from Beijing. Putin isn't coming either, something about concerns over Covid in UK. The Australian prime minister Scott Morrison is only coming after changing his mind (ie someone twisted his arm - Biden/Boris?), and John Kerry super-envoy for climate-change and former US secretary of state, has read the runes and has lowered expectations of any major breakthrough. Meanwhile Boris has announced a fancy £5,000 gift for any householder who switches from gas boilers to heat pump boilers which sounds fine but is realistically pie-in-the-sky. These environment-loving boilers are fabulously expensive to install, involve major disruption to property and/or garden and need to be housed in their own special little building. No way are people going to rush to throw away their gas boilers. If the £5,000 Boris gift is going to mean anything, the price of heat pumps will have to come down drastically and clever people will have to think of ways of installing them without knocking the whole bloody house down. Meanwhile Prince William and Kate have sponsored this scheme to award £1 million prizes for exceptionally brilliant ideas to help save the planet. It could have been another PR show but the winners are absolutely amazing and inspiring. Much more of that and maybe the planet will survive after all. But the Glasgow summit is going to be all blah blah blah.

The Iraq war was not General Colin Powell's fault

So it's farewell General Colin Powell. Some Iraqis, perhaps all Iraqis, have been brutal in their criticism of Powell for his role in laying before the United Nations the supposed intelligence of Saddam Hussein's collection of weapons of mass destruction which not long after led to the massive US-commanded invasion of Iraq on March 20 2003 and the total disaster that followed over the next dozen years or so. Disaster because although Saddam was found and jailed and executed, the anarchy in Iraq led to a vicious and murderous insurgency that killed tens of thousands of Iraqi people. The criticism of Powell, then US secretary of state and former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, is understandable. But unfair. Powell, like every other person involved politically and militarily in the decision to invade Iraq read and believed the intelligence that was provided by high-ranking but fraudulent Iraqi sources in Baghdad to American, Brtish and other coalition secret agencies. Powell was caught out like everyone else. When he read the "evidence" that Saddam agents had visited Niger to buy uranium yellowcake for the dictator's nuclear weapons programme he had no reason to believe that it was false. It WAS false but with all the other intelligence material claiming Saddam had a clandestine weapons of mass destruction programe this was just another snippet to seal Saddam's coffin. But sadly for Powell, he was viewed as such a man of integrity that his statement to the UN convinced many people around the world that it just HAD to be true. Powell later admitted his anguish at making a statement that turned out to be false. But it wasn't his fault that the US and others went to war with Iraq. It was the fault of everyone in the West who believed what they wanted to believe. Rest in peace General Powell.

Taiwan wants more fighter jets urgently

Taiwan has appealed to the US to bring forward the export of 66 F-16 Viper fighter aircraft to boost the island’s air defence capabilities against the increasing threat from China. The new sense of urgency by the Taiwanese government emerged as the US Navy revealed an Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer, USS Dewey, accompanied by a Royal Canadian Navy frigate, HMCS Winnipeg, sailed through the Taiwan Strait at the end of last week. The navy said it was to underline the commitment of the US and allies to a free and open Indo-Pacific. Beijing has condemned all previous appearances of foreign warships in the strait. The sale of 66 advanced F-16s was approved by former President Trump in 2019 but the aircraft are not due for complete delivery until 2026, with the first two to arrive in 2023. Taiwan officials have asked Washington to start sending the aircraft from 2022 and also to supply long-range, air-launched cruise missiles for the F-16s, according to the Liberty Times, a national newspaper on the self-governing island. The Taiwanese air force already has around 140 F-16s but they are the older Fighting Falcon versions. The upgraded Viper model has been developed by Lockheed Martin for export and there are a number of other countries competing for priority deliveries, including Bahrain, Morocco and Bulgaria and, potentially, India and Indonesia. With the recent mass incursions of Chinese fighter aircraft and bombers in Taiwan’s air defence zone , Washington will be under pressure to meet the request for a more rapid delivery of the F-16Vs, and to consider the possible sale of joint air-to-surface standoff missiles (JASSM), also developed by Lockheed Martin. The 66 fourth-generation fighters will be stationed at Chihhang airbase in Taitung on the southeast coast of Taiwan. New hangars and missile-storage facilities are being built at the base for the arrival of the first F-16Vs. President Biden approved his administration’s first arms sale to Taiwan in April. The deal worth $750 million included 40 M109 self-propelled howitzers built by BAE Systems and 1,698 kits to convert air-launched bombs into precision-guided missiles.

Trump still insists he is the rightful commander-in-chief

So much time has gone by and yet still Donald Trump insists, almost every day, that Joe Biden's election as president in November 2020 was a fraud and that he, president for four years, should now be well into his second term of office. It's an extraordinary and alarming campaign by a man who will probably stand for election as president once again in 2024. You would have thought by now that enough Republicans, both those serving in Congress and private citizens, had become tired of this relentless nonsense by Trump and had started to push him away and think of the future. But this is absolutely not the case. Every time Trump stands up to relay his worn-out message, he is cheered around the country. I appreciate that serving Republicans have a helluva judgment call to make: how can they publicly berate Trump for persisting with the election fraud line when to do so they would alienate millions of supporters. But someone has to be brave enough to make a stand. Courts up and down the land dismissed Trump's accusation. Biden is president legitimately and constitutionally and that's a fact of political life. But Trump will not and cannot accept it. So on and on he goes with his ludicrous claims. His supporters believe him and far too few Republican senators and representatives have the guts to put him right. For fear of losing their jobs. To incur the wrath of Donald Trump is to put your political career at risk. Grave risk. Trump is still big big big in America and I see no possibility that this will change between now and the election in 2024. The United States was my home for three years and I loved every moment which is why I fear for the country if the Trump election-fraud accusation is still his main message to the nation if/when he stands in 2024.

A few more thoughts on Taiwan versus China

Without rapid and overwhelming military support from the United States, Taiwan would survive a large-scale invasion by China’s People’s Liberation Army for a matter of days. Taiwan is blessed with natural defences – high coastal cliffs and rough water in the Strait separating the island from mainland China. On top of that, the Taiwanese military has advanced weaponry, long-range missiles, thousands of mines located offshore and a well-rehearsed defence plan honed over many years. The PLA has superiority in every aspect of warfare: a dominating offensive cyber capability and more than 1,250 intermediate, medium and short-range ballistic missiles and ground-launched cruise missiles. In the eastern and southern theatres alone, across from Taiwan, the PLA has 412,000 ground troops including six amphibious brigades, 600 fighter aircraft, 250 bombers, 23 destroyers and 35 tank-landing ships. In the invasion scenario envisioned by the Pentagon, China would initially swamp Taiwan with cyber attacks to knock out key infrastructure including command and control networks before sending in amphibious forces and airborne brigades to form bridgeheads from which to launch assaults on Taiwanese military positions, backed by fighter jets, bombers and electronic-jamming aircraft. Depending on how much time the US had to prepare - potentially it could take months for the PLA to gets its invasion force ready - the Pentagon could have two aircraft carrier strike groups in position in the South China Sea as a deterrent to Beijing, as well as an amphibious ready group with 5,000 Marines and a display of B-52H bombers and stealth fighters at the Andersen base on Guam, 1,700 miles from Taiwan. It would be brinkmanship at the most dangerous level. If the US were to back away from its implied pledge to support Taiwan militarily in the event of an invasion by China, the self-governing island would fall after the second or third wave of PLA attacks. If Washington made it clear that at the first sign of an invasion the US would be ready to take on China, would Beijing fire the first shot – perhaps a preemptive strike on Guam? If so, war between China and the US would be unavoidable.

Dogs of war armed and dangerous

William Shakespeare first coined the phrase: “ Let slip the dogs of war,” said Mark Antony in Act 3 of Julius Caesar, calling for those involved in the assassination of the Roman Emperor to be hunted down. The phrase “dogs of war” then became associated with foreign mercenaries after a novel of that name by Frederick Forsyth. Now there are real dogs of war after a company in the US developed a robotic canine fitted with a gun that can fire precision rounds to a range of nearly 4,000ft. The robot dog, or quadrupedal unmanned ground vehicle (Q-UGV), is already in service at one US Air Force base, carrying out perimeter patrols although not as yet armed with the rifle. The gun-toting robot dog, designed by Ghost Robotics , based in Philadelphia, was unveiled at an army convention in Washington. The gun, a 6.5mm Creedmoor hunting rifle made by SWORD international in Nevada, was introduced as a special purpose unmanned rifle (SPUR). The rifle can be instructed by remote control to put rounds in the chamber and fire them and it has a sighting system on top, potentially ideal for urban warfare operations where it is difficult for soldiers to gain access. While critics might warn of the risks posed by the military becoming too reliant on Terminator-style robotic systems, the Pentagon is increasingly enthusiastic about removing the human being from warfighting platforms, whether they be fighter jets, warships, armoured vehicles or underwater systems. An armed robotic quadruped is just the latest manifestation of an unstoppable progression towards unmanned warfare. The 325th Security Forces Squadron at Tyndall air force base in Florida was the first unit to adopt the unarmed robot quadruped for security patrolling, at a cost of around $130,000 per dog. “These dogs will be an extra set of eyes and ears while computing large amounts of data at strategic locations throughout Tyndall air force base,” Major Jordan Criss, the unit commander, said in a statement in November last year when the dogs first appeared on site. The robot runs on ten watts of power and can travel more than six miles on a single charge, and Ghost Robotics is developing kennels for the robot dogs to enter for recharging.

China's uncrewed destroyer programme

China is testing larger and more capable drone warships for “high-end” combat operations at a secret base on the northeastern coast, new satellite intelligence has revealed. The latest evidence of China’s interest in mixing its expanding fleet of aircraft carriers, destroyers and frigates with large “uncrewed surface vessels” (USV) emerged from satellite pictures of a new pier near the city of Dalian in Liaoning province which borders North Korea. Two warships in particular have been spotted which show the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is moving rapidly ahead with sea trials of much larger unmanned warships capable of carrying torpedos, missiles and advanced battle-management radar systems. One of the warships appears to be a larger version of the unmanned mini-destroyer called JARI-USV which was launched as a prototype in August 2019 fitted with weapons, sonars and sensors. It was defined as a mini-destroyer when it took part in sea trials last year because it appeared to have a deck gun, two close-range air-defence missiles and two vertical-launch silos for small anti-air and anti-ship missiles. “The difference is that the JARI is 16 metres [around 50ft] long and this new bigger version is 21 metres [70ft] long, so a lot more weaponry and other systems can be fitted on it,” Kelvin Wong, Singapore-based editor of Janes Unmanned Systems, said. China, like the US, has realised the potential for unmanned warships operating in the Indo-Pacific which has become the most challenging region in terms of rivalry between the two superpowers. Wong said the images of the larger version of the JARI, photographed by Maxar, a Colorado-based space technology company and published by USNI News, demonstrated that PLAN was intent on developing unmanned warships for “high-end naval missions”. The original JARI only has a range of 500 miles. The other unmanned warship seen at the PLAN pier near Dalian was a twin-hulled catamaran, also about 70ft long. “It’s a stealthy design with a low-profile hull,” Wong said. “It’s something we have seen before but it’s a larger and more capable version,” he said. There has only been limited reporting in China of the unmanned warship programme, possibly because of the challenges the PLAN has found in developing a vessel that can match its manned counterparts. “They will have discovered that nothing beats the human element when it comes to maritime navigation and communication,” Wong said. The role of the coxswain and helmsman when navigating in stormy sea conditions and the intuition they build up after years of experience in the world’s oceans is difficult to replace with artificial intelligence, Wong said. “China is hoping to figure out how to get an artificial coxswain,” he said. The US Navy is also developing large unmanned surface vessels and has bid for $434 million in the 2022 budget to pursue research projects. The navy envisions the largest of these vessels could be 200ft-300ft long with a full-load displacement of up to 2,000 tons, the equivalent in size to a corvette. Separately, the Pentagon’s defence advanced research projects agency (Darpa) has a programme to design a ship from the keel up to operate without a crew, known as NOMARS (no mariners).

Biden, Boris et al need to get Covid sorted!

Governments lucky enough to have had the funds to tackle Covid and pay workers to keep their jobs throughout the pandemic should by now be breaking free and returning their nations to normality. But it's still a helluva struggle even for the wealthiest, and I'm thinking here about the United States. Joe Biden should be basking in the glow of a back-to-the-future economy, with polls showing rising popularity for the president. But it's not the case. In fact it's the opposite. The same could soon be the case for Boris. He oozes confidence and optimism, that's part of his personality which is fine. But every day Covid deaths pile up, every day the number of people suffering from Covid sufficiently badly to be in hospital are in the thousands and large numbers of people are testing positive and feeling awful. This is after 19 months of the pandemic. Billions of pounds here and billions of dollars across the Atlantic have been spent combating Covid, a huge amount has been wasted, disgracefully wasted, and while massive progress had been made with the vaccination programme, the wretched virus is still taking lives whenever and wherever it wants. In the US in particular there is now a general sense of complacency and malaise about the whole issue, almost as if Biden and his administration have lost the plot. This may be unfair but Biden can't get away from the fact that his popularity ratings are desperately low and it's probably because he is not seen to be masterminding the recovery from the pandemic. True, there is a tremendous effort underway to get legislation through Congress that will give the economy a multi-trillion dollar boost but there is so much internicene whingeing going on between the Democrats and Republicans that the general populace has been turned off. All they want is their lives back and an end to Covid. It's not happening. And it's not really happening here in the UK either. There is a real bust-up going on between 10 Downning Street and the Treasury over how the hell to pay off the massive Covid borrowing debts. Political arguments are getting in the way of killing off the pandemic once and for all. That's key to all of our futures. If Covid deaths and sufferings are still going on next year, Biden and Boris and others will pay the price.

Isis still has huge funds and sympathetic donors in the Middle East

The Islamic state terrorist organisation has retained elaborate fund-raising efforts even after losing its principal oil revenue money-earner following the collapse of its caliphate in Iraq and Syria. Isis finances are suddenly a big issue after the capture of their top financier by Iraqi security forces. At the height of its caliphate empire when Isis was earning $1 million a day from selling oil on the black market from dozens of seized oil fields, a US Treasury official described the militants as “the richest terrorist organisation on Earth”. The official, David Cohen, then undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence at the treasury, and now deputy director of the CIA, estimated Isis was generating $1 billion a year, half it from illicit oil transactions, and the rest from extortion, kidnapping for ransom, human trafficking, antiquities smuggling and foreign donations from sympathisers in the Middle East. Today, it’s estimated that Isis still has hundreds of millions of dollars to finance its terrorist activities and without the need to put huge sums aside to administer and fund its quasi-government caliphate sprawled across large territorial areas of Iraq and Syria. That expensive function is no longer required after the defeat by the US-led coalition. Cohen told Congress in 2014 that Isis was “financially sophisticated”, and its ability to generate funds in more recent years through criminal activities, masterminded by a “minister of finance”, has remained undimmed. In the past, when it ruled over up to eight million people , Isis earned as much as $350 million a year from extortion by enforcing tax payments from local civilians and businesses, and an annual $25 million from kidnapping. Acknowledging the continuing ability of Isis franchises to raise funds and launder it through a complex system of money transfers, the international community has stepped up efforts to disrupt the organisation’s revenue sources and “banking” methods. The counter-Isis finance group of the global coalition to defeat Isis, established in 2015, still meets regularly to try and prevent Isis from exploiting the world’s banking systems. Isis relies on “money service businesses”, organisations (not banks) that manage transfer or currency exchange transactions, including the so-called Hawala system of money-brokers in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, as well as couriers. In May the US Treasury announced targeted sanctions against a money service business and three of its operators in Turkey who played a key role in transferring Isis funds to Syria and Iraq. US officials said the company in Turkey had connected Isis with a network of international donors. “Isis continues to exploit formal financial systems despite the loss of its territorial caliphate in Iraq and Syria. Isis also has access to tens of millions of dollars in cash reserves disbursed across the region,” the US Treasury said.

The greatest nuclear proliferator in history

Many people have been responsible for illegally selling nuclear bomb secrets to the wrong people in the last 80 years. Traitors in Britain and the US revealing bomb secrets to the Soviets and Chinese Americans giving away classified nuclear technology to China. Their names are written into the history books of the Cold War and post-Cold War eras. But no one in all of these decades has been more responsible for unlawfully spreading nuclear know-how around the world than Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, Pakistan's most famous and notorious nuclear scientist described lovingly and adoringly by the prime minister and people of Pakistan as the father of the Islamic nuclear bomb. He has died of Covid-19 at the age of 85. But as we all know he not only created and developed the nuclear bomb for his own country he, mostly off his own bat, passed on his nuclear secrets to some of the most unstable and potentially dangerous nations in the world. Namely, Iran, North Korea and Libya. Sometimes, it seems, he got the approval of the then Pakistan leader General Zia-ul-Hak, but on other occasions he just did it himself and today North Korea has a pile of nuclear bombs, Iran is not far off having the capability to do so and Libya would probably have had the bomb by now but for some nifty intelligence work by an MI6 officer that persuaded Colonel Gaddafi not to go down that route. So thank you Abdul Khan, through your Machiavellian exploits you made the world a helluva lot more dangerous. For Pakistan you may always be the father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb but for the rest of us you will always be the greatest nuclear proliferator of all time.

Taliban won't work with US to get rid of Isis. No surprise there!

The Taliban want international recognition as the de facto government of Afghanistan but that doesn't mean they are going to suddenly cooperate with the US in eliminating the threat of Isis in the country. It seems this subject came up when US officials and Taliban "officials" met in their favourite place, Doha, capital of Qatar. I can't really believe that any American, official or otherwise, would either ask or expect the Taliban to side up with the US in tackling the one big security threat the insurgents/war winners face. I guess what the US had in mind was something along these lines: "We supply intelligence of Isis whereabouts and we decide together whether you, Oh Taliban, go in with your specialforce-type fighters and attack them or we, the Americans, bomb the hell out of them with your sayso, or we do it together in a combined operation with us providing close-air support while you do the ground stuff." That was never going to happen, not now and probaby not ever in the future. The Taliban will want to prove they can deal with Isis on their own, not by doing the US a favour by attacking a militant group that represents a threat to the US homeland wherever they are but because the fanatical extremists are screwing up their plan to develop an Islamic republic along their lines and persuade the Afghan people that they can take charge of security. If the US is lucky the Taliban will do a good enough job to dismantle Isis in Afghanistan to allow the Pentagon to cross this particular threat off their list of worries. They can then concentrate on eliminating any sign of a resurging al-Qaeda threat in Afghanistan and they know they can't ask for Taliban help in doing that because al-Qaeda generally speaking doesn't threaten Afghanistan or the Taliban Kabul regime and are ony interested in mounting terrorist attacks on the US and the West. American counter-terrorism objectives in Afghanistan are going to get sooo complicated, with or without Taliban acquiescence.

How would China invade Taiwan?

The first physical sign of an invasion on Taiwan by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would be when the lights go out across the island. A cyber attack, hitting every power outlet to cripple Taiwan’s ability to defend itself would lead the way to a full scale multi-pronged air, airborne, amphibious and ballistic missile assault that would include “decapitation” missions aimed at knocking out the island’s leadership command. “The PLA’s doctrine calls for emphasising operations in the speed domains - space, cyberspace, the air and the electromagnetic – and quick victory,” Andrew Krepinevich, American defence policy analyst and former Pentagon official, said. “If the PLA acts according to its doctrine, we would likely see a massive cyber attack supported by large-scale jamming and other forms of electronic warfare on the island to disable its critical infrastructure and military command links. This would be supported by any Chinese Fifth Columnists on the island,” he said. “I would expect to see major air and missile attacks on key military facilities, a modern-day version of the German attacks on the Soviets on June 22, 1941 [Operation Barbarossa], Pearl Harbour or the Israeli attacks on the first day of the Six Day War [in June 1967],” he predicted. There would be no D-Day-style invasion, he said. “I would anticipate PLA special forces landing by air and sea, seizing several airfields whereupon transport aircraft would land large numbers of ground troops,” he said. The mass presence of 150 Chinese fighter aircraft and bombers inside Taiwan’s air defence zone over four days this week was “a dry run” for testing Beijing’s war plan for invading the island, one of America’s authorities on Chinese/Taiwanese security said. “This wasn’t about China retaliating for something the West had done, such as the exercise involving American and British aircraft carriers off the Philippines, it’s more likely to have been a dry run for testing their ability to execute their war plans, “ said Ian Easton, senior director at Project 2049 institute in Washington and former China expert at the Pentagon-funded centre for naval analysis in Virginia. “The timing would support that. October is the best month to invade Taiwan in terms of the sea state. The water at this time of year is perfect for military operations,” said Easton who lived for more than four years in Taiwan researching the island’s defences. The Pentagon which has drawn up contingencies in the event of an attack by the PLA on Taiwan, accused Beijing of “provocative military activity” near Taiwan. “We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan, “ Lieutenant-Colonel Martin Meiners, a Pentagon spokesman, said. The imbalance of power between the self-governing nation and its superpower neighbour across the Taiwan Strait, separated by less than 81 miles at the narrowest point, might suggest that an invasion by the PLA would be both victorious and rapid. Taiwan’s defence minister has warned the PLA could be ready for an attack by 2025. However, Beijing’s calculations about a future takeover of the “breakaway province” remain as complex and challenging as ever because of the unknowns in the military equations: would an attack lead to unacceptable casualties and destruction, what role would the US play and would an invasion lead to conflict with America? Easton said there was another big factor. “Taiwan is God’s gift when it comes to defending,” he said. “There are 14 beaches, two of them designated as red , regarded as the most vulnerable to an amphibious landing, and 12 of them defined as yellow, but all of them are bordered by bluffs [cliffs], most between 1,000ft and 2,000ft high and some much higher,” he said. “So this isn’t like Omaha beach in the Normandy landings in 1944 or Okinawa [in the 1945 Pacific war when the Japanese island was invaded by US soldiers and Marines] where there were also bluffs to climb but not nearly so high as in Taiwan. In Taiwan these topographical features favour the defenders and there are tunnels dug everywhere to provide cover for attacks on invading forces,” he said. However, he admitted that strategically Taiwan faced “an impossible task”. “They could defend against the first wave of attacks and maybe the second but the Chinese would jam their communications and satellites and cut off their fibre optic cables. In the end Taiwan wouldn’t be able to defend itself without massive US support,” Easton said. Would there be time for the US to intervene before it was too late? “Currently the US has few forces based forward and so could not strongly contest a PLA attack unless it had months of prior warning, giving ample time for the Chinese Communist Party to declare it has no further territorial claims in the region and offer the US the option between a major war and fig-leaf negotiations as a way out for Washington,” Krepinevich said. The US Anderson air base on Guam, 1,700 miles from Taiwan, would be a vital staging area for US back-up, as well as aircraft carrier strike groups in the region. Would Beijing risk preempting an American rescue attempt by launching ballistic-missile or bomber attacks on the Guam base? “My guess, and it’s only a guess, is no. Beijing would rather put the onus on Washington to shoot first and bet that President Biden will not,” Krepinevich said. China spends 25 per cent more on its military than Taiwan and has an overwhelming advantage in everything from cyber capabilities to ballistic missiles, fighter jets and warships. However, Taiwan has the US to thank for some advanced weaponry. In the pipeline but still a long way from being delivered are a number of different missile systems. They include an artillery rocket launcher armed with the 200-mile-range army tactical missile system (Atacms). Taiwan is also mass-producing its own long-range missiles, although the number is a closely guarded secret.

Pity the poor Afghan people - violence and killings go on and on

The war in Afghanistan may be over for the US and British military but for the Afghan people life is war, there is no end to the appalling slaughter. At least 50 Shia Muslims worshipping at their mosque in Kunduz in the north are killed by a suicide bomber. An Isis suicide bomber no doubt although there are so many evil people in Afghanistan that it could be anyone with revenge, grievance or sheer hatred in his heart. The sound of women shrieking inside and outside the mosque on the video released is terrible to hear. In Washington Joe Biden may well be saying to himself, "You see this is why I wanted all troops home, no one can save Afghanistan". He's probably right and even if thousands of US troops were still in the country, they wouldn't have been able to stop the suicide bomber. After all, they couldn't prevent the Isis suicide bomber at Kabul airport on August 26 which killed more than 180 people even though they knew it was coming. But you have to despair for the Afghan people who have nothing to do with any of the extremists in their country and just want a life that excludes daily violence and death. I can't see it ever happening. Isis hates the Taliban and will continue to carry out their gruesome trade. The Taliban over 20 years killed countless civilians, so they can't be counted on to symathise with the people they are now theoretically governing. It can only get worse for the Afghans and with the departure of the US-led coalition, no one in the West is going to care as much as they did when they were living amongst them and trying to protect them from Taliban death squads.

The dangerous world of spying

Dozens of secret informants working for CIA undercover intelligence officers around the world have been arrested, executed or “turned” into double agents in recent years, according to a leaked classified cable sent to the spy agency’s stations abroad. The warning came from the CIA’s counter-intelligence department whose role is to ensure that foreign agents recruited as human intelligence (humint) sources are credible, trustworthy and protected. The vetting and monitoring of informants has become increasingly important as rival intelligence services in potentially hostile countries including China, Russia and Iran have devoted more resources to identifying CIA sources and eliminating them. Pakistan’s intelligence service (ISI) is also known to be adept at tracking down CIA informants. Despite advances in technological spying with satellite-linked communications interceptions and cyber espionage, humint remains a key element of the CIA’s clandestine service. Foreign agents paid to hand over secrets are always in danger of being exposed by their country’s own counter-intelligence operatives. In recent years the spy hunters in China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and other countries have benefited from the revolution in artificial intelligence, facial recognition technology and computer hacking to track known CIA officers as they meet with their secret informants. The top secret cable circulated to all CIA station chiefs and leaked to The New York Times highlighted the risk of underestimating the counter-intelligence efforts being made by adversaries to hunt down moles. The cable identified the number of secret agents who had been executed by rival intelligence agencies in the last few years. The figure was not published by the paper but a reference was made to the “dozens” of foreign informants who had been executed, captured or compromised. The CIA’s counter-intelligence chiefs blamed the high death toll on poor tradecraft (the methods used for collecting secrets from agents), and being too eager to recruit sources without taking sufficient account of the security risks or the possibility of informants being turned and providing misleading or inaccurate intelligence that can have damaging repercussions. The credibility of foreign agents became a high-profile issue after the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 when it emerged that both the CIA and Britain’s MI6 had relied on supposedly top-rank sources within the regime of Saddam Hussein who claimed the Iraqi dictator had built up a stock of weapons of mass destruction. The claims were false and both the CIA and MI6 had to introduce new vetting systems to ensure recruited agents were bona fide. During the conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, count-terrorism became the key focus of America’s ntelligence agencies. And even today, with the withdrawal of all troops and intelligence-gathering apparatus removed from Afghanistan, the CIA and the Pentagon’s defence intelligence agency (DIA) will be trying to set up new sourcing networks in Pakistan and other neighbouring countries to try and keep tabs on any resurge of al-Qaeda. However, with China and Russia identified by the US as the main great-power rivals, the CIA and other US intelligence agencies view these two countries as the prime targets for espionage. But it is acknowledged that both China and Russia present an exceptionally high-risk and challenging environment for humint operations. Post-Cold War the worst cases of CIA informants being uncovered and punished occurred in China. Beijing effectively dismantled the agency’s network of spies between 2010 and 2012. It was claimed then that 18 CIA informants in China were killed or imprisoned. The potential for such losses appears to be still prevalent today judging by the warning cable. The devastation of the CIA’s network in China ten years ago revived memories of the damage caused by the betrayals of Aldrich Ames, a CIA officer, and Robert Hanssen of the FBI who worked secretly for years for the KGB. Their treachery led to the deaths of numerous intelligence agents in Moscow between the 1970s and early 2000s. The CIA declined to comment on the leaked cable.

Talking to the Taliban

One moment you are tryng to kill evry Taliban fighter in sight and the next you are seeking talks and presumably a handshake to discuss government stuff and diplomatic issues. It's all so weird. The US and Britain and all the other coalition members of the 20-year war are having to adapt to the new reality, dealing with the hated enemy who are now in charge in Kabul and everywhere else in Afghanistan except where Isis militants are residing. It's always a dfficult transition, fighting then accommodating the enemy, especially when the enemy has won a huge victory. The Americans had to do it with the Communists in Vietnam, Britain has had long experience of dealing nicely with longstanding enemies. Just two examples: the Provisional IRA after 30 years of the Irish Troubles and Robert Mugabe, the bush war guerilla leader turned statesman in Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Now it's the Taliban's turn to get the softly softly treatment despite years of appalling slaughter and the death of thousands of coalition troops, Afghan civilians and Afghan soldiers and police. The men with long beards and black turbans are the government - unrecognised except by China and Russia - and so real politik steps in. Officials from the Brtish Foreign Office have travelled to Kabul to talk to the Taliban leaders about the way forward and, in particular, safe passage for people who still want to leave Afghanistan. How strange, if not creepy, it must have been for these officials to shake the hands of their Taliban counterparts. But needs must. This is the way it is from now on.

How far should protesters go?

The right to protest is a fundamental component of a flourising democracy. But what if the protest interferes with other people's lives to such an extent it causes mass disruption, emotional angst and personal traumas? The protesters glueing themselves to motorway link roads, motorways and road tunnels in the UK to sell their demand that every home should be insulated as part of climate-change policies are certainly getting their message across. They have made headlines every day for two weeks but at what cost? The mood in the country is no longer supportive but downright angry because of the chaos these few people are causing. Boris Johnson called them "crusties" this morning which I thought was a bit insulting and not accurate and, of course, our Home Secretary, Priti Patel, ever ready to bring in new legislation at the drop of a hat, is doing just that and getting her civil servants to draw up plans to send these "crusties" to jail for six months. Six months for superglueing their hands to a motorway. I somehow doubt that will change these people's minds but it might well satisfy the motorists and truck drivers and ambulance drivers etc who have been caught up in miles of traffic jams because of those glued hands. Actualy it makes a lot of sense for every home to be properly insulated. It would save a huge amount of money in enrgy bills and play a role in tackling climate change. But that sensible message has been lost in the build-up of bad temper and repressive legislation by Home Secretary Patel. The right to protest is also a big issue right now in the US where Congress and Joe Biden are battling over his plans to spend $3.5 trillion on infrastructure and social welfare programmes. One democrat, Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, is for some reason opposed to the huge amount of money to be spent on multiple schemes that are favoured by the progressive element of the Democratic party. She is seen to be holding up Biden's grandiose social revolution and as a result she is being pursued everywhere by protesters, including into the bathroom when she was visiting Arizona State University. One protester actually stood outside her toilet cubicle (stall in the US) to continue with the personal attacks. Now that is serious intrusion on private activity! Biden didn't approve but he said that was the way things are in the political game. Although not of course in his case. When he resides in a cubicle he has a team of Secret Service men standing guard.

Coronavirus financial reckoning cannot be evaded

Throughout the coronavirus pandemic we have got used to hearing governments talking endlessly about propping up economies with billions and billions of dollars or pounds in loans. It became a mirage of cash that came from somewhere and didn't seem to affect us other than protecting millions of jobs of course. This aas going on in the UK, the US and Europe and everywhere. Now for the reckoning. It's impossible to go on like this without someone sensible making decisions to get those debts paid and the economy back into shape. To do that we are all going to have to suffer, probably for quite some time. Higher bills, higher taxes, wage restraint etc. In the UK Rishi Sunak, the chancellor of the exchequer, is the man in charge of the economy and it seems he has got the message and is warning about the challenges ahead. But is Boris listening? He has this wonderful broad-brush approach to politics and government and doesn't like hearing his chancellor talking about raising taxes which is anathema to the Conservative Party. But I believe most people in this country will understand that with the pandemic moving slowly towards an exit these huge debts must be paid off. Even the Labour Party must realise that you can't spend spend spend without there being a reckoning at some point. That point has now been reached. Let's see how brave Boris is going to be.

What will the US do if China invades Taiwan?

Beijing is rattling sabres like never before, sending three dozen military aircraft into Taiwan's air defence zone, the most it has ever deployed. Either the Chinese president Xi Zinping is taking advantage of Joe Biden's current political vulnerability to throw the gauntlet down or is actually building up to a full-scale invasion. We know he wants to do it at some point and may be running out of patience. Either way the Chinese leader is making calculations: if he does order an invasion will it be successful, can it be completed without too much bloodshed and, most importantly, what will Biden and the Pentagon do to stop him? It's a tricky one for Biden. The last thing he wants right now, or at any time in his presidency, is a war with China, even if it were to be restricted to a fight over Taiwan and not go further. But of course war isn't like that. It can't be compartmentalised. It's never neat and tidy. When the guns start firing, US versus China, there's no knowing what will happen next. Biden knows that, at least I hope he does. And Xi Zinping knows it too. He certainly wouldn't want things to escalate beyond his control. But he does want Taiwan back under the Beijing wing. The deployment of three dozen planes is a serious provocation but it's not war. What we don't know is what the Chinese president has in mind for the next, say, 12 months. I suspect what he will do is wait to see how Biden succeeds or fails in next year's mid-term elections, watch the Trump saga carefully to see if he makes a decision about standing in 2024 and then do somethng much worse than sending three dozen aircraft towards Taiwan. Something that looks like an invasion dress rehearsal just to see how the US reacts. If the US sends a couple of carrier strike groups to sail near Taiwan, Xi Zinping will get all angry about American intrusion but it will also help him in his strategic calculations. I fear Taiwan is doomed however many US aircraft carriers are in the region.

Boris continues to ride his popularity carousel

It seems like Boris Johnson has been around for ever. If you take in his time as Mayor of London as well as his sojourn at Number 10 Downing Street, then I suppose that accounts for it. Actually, he has only been prime minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland since July 24 2019. The time has flown by and a helluva lot has happened, including Brexit, the worst pandemic since Spanish flu in 1918, the near-collapse of the National Health Service, a shambolic end to the war in Afghanistan, petrol queues, an appalling rape and murder of a wonderful-looking 33-year-old woman by a serving Metropolitan police officer, an army call-out to drive fuel tankers, food shortages in the supermarkets, warnings of no turkeys for Christmas, the inevitability of tax rises, etc etc. And yet Boris remains as popular as ever. If not more so. Helped along a bit by the fact that the Labour party, supposedly Her Majesty's main Opposition party, is being led by a nice but very boring bloke who never seems to say anything original and has a dreadful smarmy hairstyle. Sir Keir Starmer as future prime minister? Never. So good old Boris bumbles along with lots of heartwarming platitudes and his own style of optimism and patriotism and it all goes down a treat with the electorate. This weekend is the start of the annual Conservative party conference and I have no doubt his speech will be greeted with fervent adoration. Boris the hero. Whatever one might feel about having a prime minister who cannot get his blond locks going in one direction and who never quite seems to have detail at his fingertips, he is a jovial soul and in these times of dire predictions about the way the world is going, I'm all for that. Starmer in No 10 would have driven me to a loony bin by now.

Is Joe Biden a disappointment?

It's probably too early to make a judgment about Joe Biden's administration. He has been president for less than nine months. And yet I believe the overall impression of the US president is not exactly ecstatic. For the first few weeks there was such relief that Donald Trump was no longer in the White House that Biden had a good run. He was intent on making friends in Congress and appeared to grasp what had to be done to combat the coronavirus pandemic. But much of the good will has dissipated. He is in charge but not in charge. The national security team appeared to be fresh and full of ideas but now, after Afghanistan, look muddled and wary and unsure. The Afghanistan debacle has done that. None of the key administration members have come out well. Not Antony Blinken, secretary of state, not Jake Sullivan, the super-brainy national security adviser, not Lloyd Austin, the defence secretary and certainly not the president. Now Biden is struggling to get through his massive legislation on infrastructure, immigration is all over the place, North Korea is firing missiles almost on a daily basis, Russia and China seem unconcerned about anything Biden does and are getting on with their own global strategies regardless, and Nato no longer knows what the hell it is supposed to be doing. No one wants Trump back, not outside the US anyway, but if Biden doesn't get his act together soon, the West is going to feel leaderless.