Wednesday, 7 July 2021
Great Game in Afghanistan still alive and well
The withdrawal of American and coalition troops from Afghanistan will now move into a new period of strategic politics. The Great Game never goes away. This time it's all about the US desperately trying to fix a deal with someone/anyone in the region to enable the Pentagon to have troops on standby across the border in case of an upsurge in al-Qaeda or other terrorist organisation activities. The signs are not looking good because of the huge influence of Russia and China and their clear intention to block any move by the US to station troops in one of the bordering -stan countries - Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. If the Pentagon and State Department fail to persuade any of these countries to host American forces, there will be no alternative but to rely on the bases in Qatar, UAE and Kuwait and an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea to monitor what is going to happen in Afghanistan over the next few months. If the Taliban does advance to the edge of Kabul and push further in, I seriously doubt they will do anything to curb the activities of al-Qaeda whatever their negotiators promised in Qatar with the Americans. If al-Qaeda rises up again in Afghanistan - with the blessing of the Taliban - then the US will be even more desperate to get special forces onto a base across the border, ready to pile in when required. Doing it from Qatar would require greater logistics, more time and a comprehensive intelligence picture. Not out of the question but just more complex. The heavy hand of Russia and China will probably ensure that the US will fail to persuade any -stan country to host anything branded American. Uzbekistan is a possibility but it relies too much on Russia, and China will do everything in its power, diplomatically and strategically, to keep US troops out of the region. It's going to be a messy business and as with all previous versions of the Great Game, it's not going to end in peace and stability, let alone joy and optimism for the Afghan people.
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