Trump, Biden, Warren or a surprise outsider? One year to go

Three years of Donald Trump have flashed by. The United States of America is as divided as ever. Is there any one among the Democratic presidential hopefuls who could change all that? I fear not. The reason is that if Trump is ousted in November 2020 by a Democrat, the country will not be drawn together as a unified nation excited at the thought of a new era of political stability. If Trump loses, his supporters will be outragedand will blame the Democrats for ruining their lives, whether it be Joe Biden, Elazabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders or one of the outsiders such as Pete Buttigieg. If Trump wins, it will be the same old same old, with anti-Trump voters believing the election must have been corrupted by shady dealings or interfered with, again, by Moscow or North Korea or whoever. I don't believe, as of today, that there is any Democratic candidate strong enough or able enough to take on Trump and win in November 2020. But a year is a very long time in politics. Trump has his one foreign victory - the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi - but a lot could go wrong in the next 12 months. A terrorist attack claimed by Isis in the US or in Europe could wipe out the benefits of Baghdadi's demise at the hands of the US Army Delta Force commandos. And a serious setback for Trump with North Korea, China, Iran or Afghanistan, could pile on the pressure and give the Democrats a chance to exploit what they will see as the president's failed foreign pledges. But the same goes for the main Democratic contenders. Biden is now besmirched, fairly or unfairly, by the Ukrainegate saga, Warren's health plan looks to be extortionately expensive however she tries to explain the mathematics - and anyway most Americans don't like the idea of a socialist national health system - Sanders is even more left wing and I don't think the average US citizen is ready for a radical shake-up on the lines he has in mind, and Buttigieg is great but is more likely to be a vice-presidential nominee. The rest are beginning to look like also rans, although I still hold a candle for Kamala Harris. So the next 12 months are going to be just as good or bad for the Democrats as they will be for Trump. Anything could happen that might screw up their individual chances of being the boss in the White House. Trump is facing impeachment but the Republican majority in the Senate will surely gather round their president like barnacles to a sunken ship and will brush the Democrats aside if or when there is an impeachment trial. Baghdadi may be forgotten by November next year, although I'm sure Trump will remind everyone as often as he can that he was commander-in-chief when Delta Force struck. The key will be the economy, immigration and jobs. Unless there's a recession, Trump could win those arguments.